ATFX Market Outlook - 15th May 2026

U.S. Stocks Hit New Records Amid Focus on U.S.-China Talks

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Highlight

Iran reported 30 vessels, including some linked to China and Japan, passing through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S.-China talks led to an agreement to keep the Strait open.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% in April, bolstering confidence in the economy and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer.

Today’s Focus: Markets remain focused on the latest updates from President Trump’s visit to China. Key data releases include U.S. industrial and manufacturing output for April, both expected to show modest month-on-month growth. Results beating expectations would further indicate the U.S. economy's continued resilience.

Global Market Review

On Thursday, U.S. equity markets climbed as stronger-than-expected retail sales and a powerful rally in technology stocks lifted sentiment. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite continued to set new record highs.

The U.S. Dollar Index edged higher for the third consecutive session. Gold continued to decline as the outlook for Fed rate hikes strengthened, with spot gold closing down 0.79%. Oil prices turned lower this morning after an initial rise, following reports from Iranian state media that approximately 30 vessels had successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Events Today:

07:50 JP PPI YoY APR **   

21:15 US Industrial Production APR **

21:15 US Manufacturing Production APR **

Key Data and Events Coming Week

Monday: CN Retail Sales & Industrial Production

Tuesday: JP GDP, RBA Meeting Minutes, GB Unemployment Rate, CA CPI, US Pending Home Sales

Wednesday: API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, GERMANY PPI, GB CPI & PPI. EU CPI, NVIDIA Earnings Report

Thursday: FOMC Minutes, AU/JP\EU\GB\US Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI, AU Unemployment Rate, US Housing Starts & Building Permits, US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday: JP CPI, GERMANY GDP, GB Retail Sales, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1692/1.1709

Support: 1.1622/1.1601

Strong U.S. retail sales data bolstered the U.S. Dollar, pushing EUR/USD lower for the third consecutive session. The pair fell below 1.1680, reaching a two-week low, as investors continued to digest the possibility of ECB rate hikes amid lingering geopolitical uncertainties.

Analyst View: EUR/USD tested its lowest level since April 9 this morning. Technical downside pressure has intensified after a break below the recent ascending channel. If the pair fails to hold 1.1650, it may enter a lower range, targeting the 1.1622–1.1601 zone.

Bias: Short-term Bearish

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3454/1.3487

Support: 1.3316/1.3274

On Thursday, the British Pound extended its decline against the U.S. Dollar, falling below 1.3500. Political uncertainty offset the positive impact of surprisingly strong UK GDP data, which showed the economy grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q1. The resignations of cabinet members and calls from Labour MPs for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down have placed significant downward pressure on Sterling.

Analyst View: We note that GBP/USD recorded its largest single-day drop since early February yesterday and has now reached a five-week low. Downward momentum has intensified after the 1.3400 mark was breached. If the 1.3300 level fails to hold, focus will shift towards the late-March lows.

Bias: Short-term Bearish

USDJPY

Resistance: 158.62/159.06

Support: 157.94/157.51

Boosted by strong U.S. economic data, USD/JPY reclaimed the 158.00 level on Thursday, climbing to its highest level in nearly two weeks. This marks the pair's first four-day winning streak since late April.

Analyst View: We see that the U.S. Dollar's upward momentum against the Yen was further confirmed yesterday, as the pair broke above its 20-day moving average. This strength has carried into this morning, with prices testing highs not seen since the end of April. Traders should look for the 159.00 level to be the next target.

Bias: Short-term Bullish

US Crude Oil Futures (JUN)

Resistance: 100.30/102.51

Support: 95.88/93.14

Investors remain focused on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) maintains its forecast of a global oil supply shortage linked to the conflict with Iran. Oil prices rebounded yesterday after an intraday dip, but opened significantly lower this morning.

Analyst View: Crude oil prices fell this morning after news that some vessels were cleared to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Prices are now trading below the 20-day moving average. A confirmed break below this level would reverse the recent rebound and could push prices below $96.

Bias: Short-term correction

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4669/4709

Support: 4572/4540

Spot Silver

Resistance: 84.98/87.21

Support: 77.91/75.73

As investors weigh the Federal Reserve's interest rate path against a strengthening US dollar, spot gold extended its decline yesterday, recording its third consecutive day of losses. Meanwhile, spot silver retreated sharply, snapping a seven-day winning streak.

Analyst View: Gold failed to hold above its key daily moving averages in yesterday’s late session, signalling increased short-term bearish momentum. Traders should monitor whether the price breaks below $4,600, which could trigger further selling pressure. For the rest of the day, focus remains on guidance from the U.S.-China talks.

Bias: Short-term Bearish

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 50288/50417

Support: 49849/49680

U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday as investors digested generally solid economic data and closely monitored developments at the U.S.-China summit. For now, markets have downplayed the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes, allowing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to maintain its elevated position.

Analyst View: We observe that the Dow remains within its recent ascending channel. This week’s high above 50,200 remains the key level to break; if market sentiment remains positive throughout the day, the index is expected to test this resistance.

Bias: Mildly Bullish

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29886/30286

Support: 29006/28619

Tech stocks maintained strong momentum, with Nvidia (NVDA) marking its seventh consecutive day of gains to reach a new all-time high. The Nasdaq followed suit, hitting yet another record high as it approached 29,700, while the market remains focused on sentiment guidance from the U.S.-China summit.

Analyst View: NAS100 continues to build on its upward momentum and could push its record highs even higher. However, after this winning streak, traders should watch for potential position adjustments ahead of the weekend, which could limit the scope for a significant breakout.

Bias: Bullish at Highs

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 82233/82833

Support: 80284/79682

Crypto markets climbed Thursday as the Senate Banking Committee advanced the long-awaited digital asset market structure bill known as the Clarity Act, a key step toward broader federal regulation of the industry.

Analyst View: BTC/USD rose to $82,000 as traders welcomed signs of regulatory progress in Washington. With prices reversing a three-day losing streak and breaking above key daily moving averages, the short-term technical outlook has improved. The market now has the potential to retest this week's high.

Bias: Mildly Bullish

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