ATFX Market Outlook - 6th March 2026

Middle East Tensions Weigh on Rate Cut Hopes Ahead of U.S. Jobs Data

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Summary

·       Geopolitical Tensions: U.S. intervention regarding the selection of Iran’s successor leadership has kept Middle East tensions high.

·       Inflation Warnings: Officials from the Fed and the ECB have warned that a potential U.S.-Iran conflict could drive inflation higher.

·       Labor Market Stability: U.S. initial jobless claims remained steady at 213,000 as the market awaits today’s jobs report.

·       Today's Focus: The market awaits tonight's February NFP report. Payroll growth is expected to slow sharply to 60,000 (from 130,000), with unemployment holding at 4.3% and wage growth at 3.7%. As the Middle East conflict shifts the narrative from "energy fears" to "inflation reassessment," this data refocuses the market on economic fundamentals, as rate cut expectations have already been scaled back.

Global Market Overview

U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday as the Middle East conflict entered its sixth day and rising oil prices fueled anxieties regarding inflation and whether the Fed will cut rates. The Dow ended down 1.6%, the S&P 500 fell 0.57%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.26%. U.S. Treasury yields climbed for a fourth consecutive session, and the U.S. Dollar regained its upward momentum—rebounding after a brief dip from a three-month high—amid escalating Middle East conflict, which unsettled investors and boosted demand for safe-haven assets.   

Gold prices turned lower late yesterday, giving back earlier gains amid rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. Spot gold ended down 1.14% at $5,076.59 per ounce. Oil prices closed sharply higher, reaching their highest levels since July 2024, as the escalating conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran disrupted supply and transportation, forcing production cuts among major Middle Eastern producers.

Key Events Today:

15:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders JAN MoM **

18:00 EU GDP Growth Rate YoY 3rd Est Q4 *** 

21:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls FEB ***

Key Data and Events Coming Week:

Monday: CN CPI & PPI FEB; EU Germany Industrial Production JAN; EU Sentix Investor Confidence MAR

Tuesday: JP GDP Final Q4; CN Balance of Trade FEB; US Existing Home Sales FEB

Wednesday: US API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change; JP PPI FEB; EU Germany CPI Final FEB; US CPI FEB; OPEC/EIA Monthly Reports

Thursday: US Initial Jobless Claims; US PPI FEB; US Balance of Trade JAN; IEA Monthly Oil Market Report

Friday: GB GDP JAN; GB Manufacturing & Industrial Production JAN; EU Industrial Production JAN; US GDP & Core PCE Prices Q4; US Core PCE Price Index JAN; US Durable Goods Orders JAN; CA Unemployment Rate FEB; US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel MAR

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1712/1.1771
Support: 1.1520/1.1459

EUR/USD dropped 0.4% to 1.1580 as renewed conflict uncertainty boosted safe-haven USD demand. Surging energy costs weighed on Eurozone sentiment, though money markets now price in an ECB rate hike later this year.

Analyst View: The pair is exhibiting sharp bearish momentum, cascading toward the 1.1520 support zone following a decisive breakdown. Elevated energy prices and geopolitical risks continue to anchor the Euro. Unless price action stabilises and reclaims significant ground, a further extension toward the 1.1459 target appears increasingly likely.

Bias: Bearish consolidation below 1.1650.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3481/1.3544
Support: 1.3218/1.3139

GBPUSD fell 0.3% to 1.3326 as the USD regained dominance. Expectations for BoE rate cuts were dialled back amid persistent energy-driven inflation risks. Traders remained cautious, awaiting clarity from the upcoming U.S. employment report.

Analyst View: The pair is undergoing a sharp downward correction after breaking below its previous consolidation base and accelerating toward the 1.3218 support zone. While a technical bounce is possible at these levels, the overall bearish structure remains intact. A failure to hold 1.3218 could expose a further slide toward the 1.3139 key low.

Bias: Bearish consolidation below 1.3380.

USDJPY

Resistance: 158.29/158.93
Support: 156.86/156.24

USDJPY rose 0.5% to 157.78, driven by climbing U.S. Treasury yields and robust economic data. While safe-haven demand remains high, the widening yield differential continues to favor the Dollar over the Yen amid regional instability.

Analyst View: USD/JPY is maintaining a powerful bullish swing within an ascending channel, establishing a firm base above the 156.86 support level. Upward momentum is dominant as the market eyes a potential test of the 158.29 multi-month peak. A decisive breach could trigger an extension toward the 158.93 resistance ceiling.

Bias: Mildly Bullish above 157.

US Crude Oil Futures (APR)

Resistance: 81.78/83.07
Support: 75.77/74.46

WTI surged nearly 4% to $79.25, hitting a multi-month high. Escalating Iran conflict paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz, forcing Iraq to cut 1.5M bpd. Supply fears intensified as analysts warned of further output drops from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Analyst View: Prices are in a violent breakout phase fueled by extreme supply shocks, successfully flipping the 75.77 level into a primary support floor. Bullish momentum remains dominant; without a de-escalation in tensions, the market is poised to challenge the 81.78 and 83.07 targets shortly.

Bias: Bullish above $78.

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 5200/5284
Support: 4994/4927

Spot Silver

Resistance: 88.05/92.21
Support: 74.84/70.73

Gold fell 1.2% to $5,076.59 as rising Treasury yields and a stronger USD increased opportunity cost. Despite geopolitical haven demand, surging inflation fears driven by oil prices slashed expectations for a Fed rate cut, pressuring the metal ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls.

Analyst View: Gold has entered a corrective phase after losing the $5,100 handle, with price action now gravitating toward the $4,994.00 support zone. While geopolitical risks provide an underlying floor, the technical setup is currently hampered by the dollar's resurgence. A break below $4,994.00 could trigger an extension toward the $4,927.00 secondary support level.

Bias: Breakout of 5200 is the key bullish trigger.

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 48556/48870
Support: 47544/47225

The Dow tumbled 1.61% to 47,954.74 as surging oil prices fueled inflation fears. High energy costs hammered airlines, while financial stocks dropped amid a bond sell-off. Energy gains from Chevron failed to offset broad industrial weakness.

Analyst View: The index is under significant pressure after breaking out of its prior consolidation and is now accelerating toward the 47,544.00 support zone. With price action capped by a descending trendline, sentiment remains fragile. A failure to hold this base could trigger a deeper slide toward the 47,225.00 critical level.

Bias: Bearish below 48,000.

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 25317/25517
Support: 24470/24274

NAS100 slipped 0.26% as rate uncertainty capped gains in tech. Broadcom rose on strong AI chip forecasts, but rising yields and potential $100 oil prices weighed on growth sectors. Investors remain on edge ahead of critical labor market data.

Analyst View: The index is currently consolidating above the 24,470.00 support floor while remaining capped by a descending trendline. Bullish momentum appears limited ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls report. A decisive breakout above the 25,517.00 resistance level is required to shift the near-term technical outlook back to positive.

Bias: Bearish while trading below 25,000.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 72708/74044

Support: 68284/66925

Bitcoin slid 2.2% to $71,142 after hitting a one-month high of $74,031. While Trump’s regulatory support and ICE’s investment in OKX bolstered sentiment, renewed missile strikes by Iran and rumors of rejected dialogue kept risk appetite in check.

Analyst View: Bitcoin is currently navigating a broad ascending channel and is undergoing a technical pullback after testing the upper resistance boundary. The price remains firmly above the 68,284 support level. The overall bullish structure stays intact as long as it holds the channel, with potential for another retest of 74,044.

Bias: Bullish above 66,925.00.

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