Daily Technical Analysis: [28 JUL]
1. USD/JPY Analysis:
News Summary:
Japan holds approximately $1.3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, but the real constraint comes from IMF classification rules. Having already used most of its intervention quota during the spring, Japan is believed to have room for only two more compliant currency interventions before November. Markets have been waiting for Tokyo to act for the past two weeks, and the focus is now shifting from whether Japan will intervene to whether it is still capable of doing so. The U.S.-Japan interest rate differential has narrowed by roughly 40 basis points from its cyclical low, yet the Japanese yen has still depreciated by around 15%. Rising domestic inflation expectations have effectively offset the support that a narrower yield gap would normally provide to the yen.
Trend Analysis:
We can see USD/JPY is consolidating at elevated levels on the H4 chart and continues to trade above the 48 hours moving average. Meanwhile, both the MACD double line and histogram bars are converging above the zero axis. The buy limit could be placed, stop loss is necessary.
Today's Key Price Levels:
Key Support Levels: [163.00]
Key Resistance Levels: [165.00]
Pivot Points [163.30]
2. Crude Oil Analysis:
News Summary:
Oil prices opened sharply lower on Monday after President Trump abruptly halted military operations following 13 consecutive nights of airstrikes on Iran. The Pentagon suspended its bombing campaign late Friday, and no new strikes were carried out on either Saturday or Sunday. Iran also stopped retaliatory attacks against neighboring countries hosting U.S. military bases, with no further fire exchanged for two consecutive days. Markets interpreted the pause as a sign of de-escalation in the Middle East. As geopolitical risk premiums quickly faded, crude oil futures fell in response.
Trend Analysis:
On the H4 chart, we can see crude oil continues to decline and is trading below the 48 hours moving average. On the other hand, the MACD double line and energy bars are gradually converging below the zero axis. The buy limit could be set, stop loss is mandatory.
Today's Key Price Levels:
Key Support Levels: [77.00]
Key Resistance Levels: [88.00]
Pivot Points [80.00]
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