Bank Sentral Selandia Baru (RBNZ) pekan lalu mengumumkan penurunan suku bunga acuan sebesar 25 basis poin menjadi 2,25%. Bank sentral mengindikasikan bahwa penyesuaian kebijakan moneter di masa mendatang akan bergantung pada pertumbuhan ekonomi dan prospek inflasi, dengan para analis memperkirakan bahwa siklus pelonggaran saat ini mungkin akan segera berakhir. Hal ini berpotensi memperkuat nilai tukar dolar Selandia Baru. Dalam penampilan publik perdananya sebagai Gubernur baru, Anna Breman mengklarifikasi prioritas kebijakan bank di masa mendatang. Dalam pidatonya di hadapan Komite Keuangan dan Pengeluaran Parlemen, beliau menekankan bahwa Bank Sentral tetap berkomitmen pada mandat utamanya: menjaga inflasi yang rendah dan stabil, memastikan stabilitas keuangan, dan mendorong sistem pembayaran yang aman dan efisien. Meskipun mengakui bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi dan tingkat ketenagakerjaan memengaruhi dinamika inflasi, Anna Breman menggarisbawahi bahwa instrumen utama kebijakan moneter—suku bunga acuan—pada dasarnya ditujukan untuk mengendalikan inflasi. Beliau menyoroti bahwa inflasi yang tinggi secara tidak proporsional berdampak pada rumah tangga berpenghasilan rendah dan, dalam jangka panjang, dapat menghambat perkembangan pasar tenaga kerja yang sehat. Mengenai hubungan antara kebijakan fiskal dan moneter, beliau menguraikan tanggung jawab masing-masing, dengan menyatakan bahwa kebijakan fiskal berada di bawah yurisdiksi pemerintah, sementara fokus Bank Sentral adalah pada penargetan inflasi. Perekonomian Selandia Baru saat ini sedang mengalami penyesuaian lokal, ditandai dengan surplus pasokan real estat dan melemahnya harga yang diminta, yang menggeser dominasi pasar kepada pembeli. Sementara itu, Gubernur yang baru secara eksplisit memprioritaskan pengendalian inflasi, yang mengindikasikan bahwa kebijakan moneter dalam jangka pendek kemungkinan akan mempertahankan bias pengetatan untuk menstabilkan kondisi makroekonomi.

The persistent weakening of the U.S. dollar index reflects market confidence in the Federal Reserves imminent interest rate cut cycle next week. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the implied probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 89%. This dovish pricing continues to pressure the dollar, as investors adjust positions to accommodate a more accommodative monetary policy stance, impeding substantial rebound prospects. Concurrently, the unexpectedly sluggish ADP private payrolls report has further weighed on the dollar. Data indicates a decline of 32,000 private sector jobs in November—the largest drop since March 2023—significantly below market expectations of a 40,000 gain. This decline underscores increasing employment market pressures amid the Feds policy pivot, with small businesses bearing the brunt of layoffs. Companies with fewer than 50 employees shed a total of 120,000 jobs, including 74,000 layoffs from firms with 20 to 49 employees. Conversely, large enterprises with over 50 employees added 90,000 jobs, highlighting notable labor market segmentation. Signs of a weakening labor market are also reflected in wage data. A report published in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab reveals that turnover workers experienced a 6.3% increase in compensation, the lowest level since February 2021. Employees remaining in their current roles saw a wage growth of 4.4%. This data is derived from payroll records covering over 26 million private-sector employees in the U.S. Historically, economists have generally viewed the labor market as characterized by low hiring and low firing activity; however, recent layoffs and announced restructuring plans by major corporations such as Apple and Verizon Communications may contribute to rising unemployment rates.

In the 1M timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, while SMAs are flattening, suggesting a potential trend reversal. Last month formed a doji candlestick pattern, followed this month by a bullish upward open, with a likely rebound toward the EMA50 at approximately 0.61. The MACD momentum shows weakening bearish divergence, and the RSI is at 44, reflecting prevailing bearish sentiment. However, the absence of lower lows suggests a bullish divergence, indicating a continuation of the upward correction. In the 4H timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upwards, with SMAs diverging upwards, and the MACD has formed a golden cross without the MACD line and signal line retracing near the zero-axis. This indicates a bullish trend, although the upward momentum is waning, leading to a short-term sideways consolidation. The RSI stands at 66, with market participants predominantly buying. If the price remains sustainably above 0.57, there is a high probability of a rally toward approximately 0.583. It is recommended to go long at the lows in the short term.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 0.574

Target Price: 0.61

Stop Loss: 0.566

Dukungan: 0,57, 0,566, 0,55

Resistansi: 0,58, 0,583, 0,61