Nine Copper Coins and an Empty Granary

In a riverside village, a grain merchant named Rowan discovered a profitable route to the next town. Each time he sent a shipment across the river and sold it, he earned one copper coin after paying his expenses.

His neighbour Mira asked how much he could lose if a shipment failed.

“Why begin with failure?” Rowan replied. “Watch how often I succeed.”

The first shipment arrived safely. Rowan placed a copper coin on his windowsill. The second brought another, and soon a neat row of coins gleamed in the morning light.

After his ninth successful journey, Rowan invited the village to admire them.

“Nine journeys, nine profits,” he announced. “You will struggle to find a better merchant.”

Mira examined the coins.

“And what is aboard the next boat?”

“Twelve copper coins’ worth of grain,” Rowan said. “Everything left in my granary. The town has buyers waiting.”

“Then one failed crossing could cost more than these nine journeys earned.”

Rowan waved towards the river. It was calm, just as it had been on the previous nine mornings.

By noon, rain was falling upstream. By afternoon, branches were sweeping beneath the ferry landing. Rowan’s boat struck a submerged trunk, split along its side and sank with the grain.

That evening, the boatman brought back an empty rope.

Rowan sat beside his windowsill. Nine copper coins remained, but the twelve coins’ worth of grain was gone. Across all ten journeys, he had lost three coins.

At the village market, someone tried to comfort him.

“You still succeeded nine times out of ten.”

Rowan looked towards his empty granary.

“Yes,” he said. “But I counted the successful journeys without weighing what each failure could cost.”

The following morning, he opened his ledger. Beside the column marked “Won or Lost,” he drew another: “How Much?”

What the Story Means for Forex Traders

A trading strategy can win frequently and still lose money. Win rate measures how often trades are profitable; it does not measure whether the profits outweigh the losses.

Suppose nine trades each make $100, while the tenth loses $1,200. The win rate is 90%, yet the total result is a $300 loss before transaction costs.

A useful calculation is:

Expected result per trade = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss).

Spreads, commissions and financing charges further reduce the result unless already included. Historical averages also cannot guarantee future performance, especially when the record contains few trades or excludes unusually large losses.

One Investor Check

Before relying on a strategy’s advertised win rate, request its complete trade history for a defined period. Reconcile the total net result using every gain, every loss and all charges, counting costs only once. Check open positions separately: unrealised losses may be missing from a win rate based only on closed trades.

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