ATFX Market Outlook - 1st June 2026

Markets Await Progress on US-Iran Ceasefire ahead of U.S. Manufacturing PMI.

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

US President Trump said last Friday that he will soon decide on a proposal to extend the ceasefire with Iran, though both sides appear to remain at odds over several core issues. Intraday markets are expected to remain cautious and wait-and-see.

Key Focus Today: As June kicks off, evolving geopolitical developments will continue to shape market sentiment. Final May manufacturing PMIs for various countries will be released today. Flash data indicate that Eurozone manufacturing remains under pressure, whereas US manufacturing has shown resilience in expansionary territory. Market consensus expects the US May ISM Manufacturing PMI to tick up slightly to 53 from 52.7; a disappointing print could deepen worries about a US economic slowdown.

Global Market Review

Driven by optimism about a potential Middle East agreement, US equities hit record highs last Friday. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.43%, marking its ninth consecutive weekly win—the longest winning streak since December 2023—while the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.39% and 0.9%, respectively.

US Treasury yields fell for a fourth consecutive session, and the US dollar recorded a weekly loss against major currencies. As investors awaited updates on the extension of the Iran ceasefire, spot gold rallied 1% last Friday, finishing the week up 0.68%. Meanwhile, crude oil prices slumped to their lowest levels since late April, with US crude plunging more than 9% for the week, marking its sharpest weekly drop in six weeks.

Key Events Today:

08:30 JP Manufacturing PMI Final MAY **

09:45 CN Manufacturing PMI MAY *

14:00 EU GERMANY Retail Sales MoM APR **

15:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing PMI Final MAY **

16:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Final MAY **

16:30 GB Manufacturing PMI Final MAY **

17:00 EU Unemployment Rate APR **

21:45 US Manufacturing PMI Final MAY ***

22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI MAY ***

June 2nd

17:00 EU CPI Flash MAY ***

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1682 / 1.1707

Support: 1.1626 / 1.1601

Market Update: Driven by further selling pressure on the US dollar, EUR/USD climbed to a two-week high last Friday, approaching 1.1680, amid widespread market expectations of an imminent US-Iran agreement. Intraday focus shifts to manufacturing PMIs from Europe and the US, as well as Eurozone unemployment data, for further direction.

Analyst View: Although EUR/USD reached a two-week high, its rally stalled just above the 20-day moving average (MA), suggesting that bulls still lack the momentum to trigger a breakout. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between the 10-day and 20-day MAs, awaiting further fundamental catalysts for a decisive breakout.

Bias: Range-bound consolidation

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3522 / 1.3564

Support: 1.3386 / 1.3343

Market Update: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said it is reasonable to tolerate inflation above the bank’s 2% target, given lingering economic uncertainty stemming from the Iran war and fragile growth momentum. GBP/USD rose to a three-day high last Friday, reflecting further improvements in the geopolitical landscape.

Analyst View: GBP/USD failed to extend its two-day rebound this morning. With the 20-day MA acting as a key resistance level throughout last week, the short-term bias remains bearish as long as the pair trades below this level. A break below the 10-day MA would threaten the 1.3400 level.

Analyst View:

Bias: Short-term bearish

USDJPY

Resistance: 159.73 / 160.08

Support: 159.06 / 158.62

Market Update: Data showed that Japanese authorities deployed a total of 11.7 trillion yen to intervene in the FX market over the past month. Meanwhile, Japanese corporate capital expenditure stagnated in the first quarter, compounding economic worries triggered by the Middle East conflict. USD/JPY gained at the start of the new week.

Analyst View: USD/JPY gapped higher this morning, with an opportunity to test last week’s high of 159.65. However, with intervention fears keeping markets cautious, the exchange rate is expected to remain range-bound.

Bias: Range-bound fluctuation

US Crude Oil Futures (JUL)

Resistance: 93.04 / 95.00

Support: 86.74 / 84.75

Market Update: WTI crude continued its volatile downward slide last Friday, breaking below the $90 threshold amid expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen. However, oil prices bounced more than 2% in early morning trading today after reports that Israel has ordered troops to push deeper into Lebanon amid fighting with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group.

Analyst View: After booking a seven-day losing streak last Friday, oil prices are attempting a recovery this morning. If the US-Iran ceasefire agreement fails to gain traction, it could spark a broader rebound in oil. Reclaiming the $90 mark would help ease short-term downside pressure.

Bias:  Bottoming consolidation

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4570/4618

Support: 4463/4414

Spot Silver

Resistance: 76.69/78.72

Support: 72.17/70.18

Spot gold rallied towards $4,600 last Friday as traders awaited either confirmation or a formal announcement of a peace deal between Washington and Tehran. Gold prices held steady above the psychological $4,500 mark during Monday’s Asian trading session.

Analyst View: Gold’s push towards $4,600 last Friday ultimately lost momentum after meeting resistance at the 20-day moving average (MA), which capped the rebound. The metal is now trading at its 10-day MA, a pivotal level for defending the $4,500 handle. For now, the near-term focus remains on range-bound consolidation between these two key moving averages.

Bias: Range-bound consolidation

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 51163 / 51274

Support: 50910 / 50797

Market Update: US equities traded in a narrow band last Friday as the market awaited confirmation of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Nevertheless, sustained optimism nudged the indices to new record highs, with the Dow closing above the 51,000 milestone after reaching a fresh peak.

Analyst View: From a technical perspective, the Dow has broken out of its four-day trading range, opening the door to further upside. If market optimism holds, the index appears poised to target the 51163 / 51274 zone, though investors should remain alert to potential volatility triggered by shifting geopolitical headlines.

Bias: Volatile tracking at highs

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 30492 / 30620

Support: 30105 / 29940

Market Update: The euphoria surrounding AI and tech stocks shows no signs of slowing, as the sector propelled Nasdaq to fresh record highs last Friday. However, the index pared some intraday gains as it approached the close, signaling a shift towards a more prudent stance as investors await formal confirmation of an extended ceasefire.

Analyst View: Nasdaq gapped higher and drifted higher last Friday, though overall gains were modest. The index may enter a period of high-level consolidation in the short term, as it likely requires a dual catalyst of geopolitical optimism and sustained AI momentum to fuel its next leg into record territory.

Bias: Cautious at highs

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance:74912/76086

Support: 71849/70945

Bitcoin’s price hovered near $73,500 after a 3% drop in May. The market is now closely watched by investors for any signs of a recovery that could help it hold an important level.

Analyst View: BTC/USD has remained pinned at the lower bound of its trading range since April 13, continuing its tight consolidation. If the pair can hold last week’s low at 72,400, it may set up a technical rebound. However, the 10-day MA near 74,900 remains a formidable near-term resistance level.

Bias: Consolidation at lows

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

ATFX is a leading global fintech Broker with a local presence in 24 locations and holds 9 licenses from regulatory authorities, including the UK's FCA, Australia's ASIC, Cyprus' CySEC, the UAE's CMA, Hong Kong's SFC, South Africa's FSCA, Mauritius' FSC, Seychelles' FSA, and Cambodia's SERC. With a strong commitment to customer satisfaction, innovative technology, and strict regulatory compliance, ATFX delivers exceptional trading experiences to clients worldwide.