Bitcoin ends October in red, but now enters its biggest month for gains

Cointelegraph

Virtuals Protocol / USD Coin

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Virtuals Protocol / Tether

Bitcoin has stepped into its historically most significant month for gains — November — with an average increase of 42.51% since 2013 — meaning Bitcoin could surpass $160,000 this month if history rhymes.

However, a crypto analyst noted that several macroeconomic factors are also at play.

“I do think seasonal charts matter a lot, but it has to be combined with a lot of other factors,” said crypto analyst Markus Thielen from 10x Research.

Looking ahead, there is an expectation that the US Fed will further lower interest rates, and the US and China are working on a trade deal; both developments could be favorable for Bitcoin. However, the government shutdown and US tariffs continue to add to economic uncertainty.

Here’s a breakdown of some key developments to keep your eye on in the weeks ahead.

US / China easing trade tensions

A meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday was seen as a positive step toward ending trade tensions between the US and China.

Trump described the talks with the Chinese president in South Korea as “amazing.” Part of the talks included an agreement from Trump to trim tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing cracking down on fentanyl trade, resuming US soybean buying and an end to restrictions on rare earth exports for a year.

Trump told reporters he expects a trade deal with China “pretty soon.”

Trump’s threat of tariffs against China was blamed for the recent crypto crash, which saw $19 billion liquidated over just 24 hours on Oct. 11. The crypto market has struggled to recover since then.

However, Dennis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University and a senior fellow in its China Initiative, told CBC News that the meeting was more of a “pause” in the trade war, but it was far from over.

US Fed to cut rates, end quantitative tightening

It was only days ago that Fed officials voted for another quarter-point rate cut, lowering the key lending rate to its lowest level in three years.

The next Fed meeting date is set for Dec. 10, 2025. Data from CME’s FedWatch — a tool used to measure expectations for a Federal Reserve rate change — shows traders are pricing in a 63% probability of a rate cut.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised markets on Wednesday by saying the move was “not a foregone conclusion.”

Fed cuts are seen as bullish for Bitcoin, as the lower cost of borrowing money has historically incentivized investors to trade riskier assets, such as cryptocurrencies.

Adding to this is the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to halt its quantitative tightening (QT) program on Dec. 1. QT is the process of contracting the central bank’s balance sheet. The goal of QT is to cool down an overheating economy and prevent inflation from rising too quickly.

The opposite of this, quantitative easing, involves central banks injecting more cash into the economy, and is seen as good for crypto, as some of that money flows into alternative assets.

US government shutdown stretches on

The US government shutdown is soon to enter its fifth week, approaching the longest in US history, as US Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked over the government spending plan.

On Thursday, Trump called on Republicans to abolish the “Senate filibuster” rule, which allows a small group of senators to block action by the majority, which he blames for the government shutdown.

“THE CHOICE IS CLEAR – INITIATE THE ‘NUCLEAR OPTION,’ GET RID OF THE FILIBUSTER AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

An end to the shutdown has been seen as a necessary step for the SEC to give the final green light to several crypto ETFs, along with critical advancements of the crypto markets structure bill, also known as the CLARITY Act.

Risk Uyarıları ve Yatırım Sorumluluk Reddi Beyanları

İşlem yapmanın yüksek derecede risk içerdiğini ve herhangi bir strateji veya yatırım yöntemini takip etmenin potansiyel kayıplara yol açabileceğini anlıyor ve kabul ediyorsunuz. Sitedeki içerik, katkıda bulunanlarımız ve analistlerimiz tarafından yalnızca bilgilendirme amaçlı sağlanmaktadır. Herhangi bir ticari varlığın, menkul kıymetin, stratejinin veya başka bir ürünün kendi yatırım hedeflerinize ve finansal durumunuza göre yatırım yapmaya uygun olup olmadığını belirlemekten yalnızca siz sorumlusunuz.

Risk Beyanı

Hisse senetleri, döviz, emtialar, vadeli işlemler, tahviller, ETF'ler veya kripto gibi finansal varlıkların alım satımında kayıp riski ciddi miktarda olabilir. Brokerınıza yatırdığınız parayı tamamen kaybedebilirsiniz. Bu nedenle, koşullarınız ve finansal kaynaklarınız ışığında bu tür bir ticaretin sizin için uygun olup olmadığını dikkatle değerlendirmelisiniz.

Kendi kendinize durum tespiti yapmadan veya mali danışmanlarınıza danışmadan hiçbir yatırım yapmamalısınız. Mali durumunuzu ve yatırım ihtiyaçlarınızı bilmediğimiz için web içeriğimiz size uygun olmayabilir. Mali bilgilerimizin gecikmesi veya yanlışlık içermesi mümkündür; bu nedenle tüm işlemlerinizin ve yatırım kararlarınızın sorumluluğu tamamen size ait olacaktır. Kaybedilen sermayenizden şirket sorumlu olmayacaktır.

Web sitesinden izin almadan web sitesindeki grafikleri, metinleri veya ticari markaları kopyalamanıza izin verilmez. Bu web sitesinde yer alan içerik veya verilere ilişkin fikri mülkiyet hakları, sağlayıcılarına ve borsa tüccarlarına aittir.

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Bitcoin ends October in red, but now enters its biggest month for gains

Risk Beyanı