Trump gümrük vergisi karmaşası yaratmaya devam ediyor

Geçtiğimiz hafta ABD Başkanı Trump yatırımcılara ticaret savaşı tünelinin sonunda ışık olduğuna dair nadir bir umut ışığı verdiğinde finans piyasalarında nihayet biraz rahatlama oldu. Ancak, Trump yönetiminin Çin'e karşı çıkmazda geri adım atmasının daha önce tahmin edildiği kadar büyük olmadığı anlaşıldıktan sonra ticaret çatışması başka bir karmaşık hal aldığından ışığın tekrar sönmeye başlaması uzun sürmedi.

Trump'ın Çin'i müzakere masasına oturtma çabasındaki havuç-sopa yaklaşımı pek etkili olmuyor, özellikle de havuç sopadan çok daha küçük olduğunda. Pekin için ticaret savaşı ulusal gururun tehlikede olduğu bir seviyeye tırmandı, dolayısıyla Trump'ın tahmin ettiği kadar kolay göz kırpmıyor. Bu, Trump yönetiminin bir anlaşma olması durumunda iki-üç hafta içinde fahiş %145'lik gümrük vergisini düşürmeye istekli olduğunun sinyalini veren Beyaz Saray için zaten bir sorun teşkil ediyor.

Ancak Çinli yetkililere göre, iki taraf henüz görüşmelere bile başlamadı ve bu da Trump'ın müzakere taktiğine şüphe düşürdü. Dahası, örneğin ABD otomobil üreticilerine yönelik otomobil tarifeleri gibi diğer tavizler de bitmiş bir anlaşma olmaktan çok uzak, hatta Trump Kanada'dan otomobil ithalatı için bunları artırmakla tehdit ediyor.

Tüm bunlar, ABD şirketleri için belirsizliği daha da kötüleştiriyor ve biraz netlik sunmuyor. Dolayısıyla, Beyaz Saray'ın piyasa türbülansını takip ettiğini ve Trump'ın Amerika'nın başlıca ticaret ortaklarıyla ticaret anlaşmaları yapmaya istekli olduğunu kabul etmesi olumlu bir işaret olsa da, ülkenin ekonomik beklentilerine ilişkin acil korkuları hafifletme açısından pek bir şey yapmıyor.

Dolar ve Wall Street durgunluk uyarısında

Önümüzdeki hafta bu endişeler ya körüklenecek ya da azalacak, çünkü yolda bir dizi üst düzey ekonomik yayın var. Salı günü işleri başlatan şey, Nisan ayı tüketici güven endeksi ve Mart ayı JOLTS iş ilanları. Çarşamba günü, ABD ekonomisinin ilk çeyrekte daraldığına dair bazı tahminler arasında GSYİH büyümesine ilişkin ön tahmin yakından izlenecek.

Atlanta Fed'in GDPNow modeli GSYİH'da yıllık %2,2'lik bir düşüş öngörüyor ancak Reuters anketine göre analistler, %2,4'lük dördüncü çeyrek büyüme hızına göre keskin bir düşüşle %0,4'lük bir büyüme öngörüyor.

ADP istihdam anketi de Çarşamba günü, en son PCE enflasyonu ve tüketim rakamlarıyla birlikte yayınlanacak. Çok önemli çekirdek PCE fiyat endeksinin Mart ayında ay bazında %0,1 artarak yıllık %2,5'lik bir rakam vermesi bekleniyor; bu da önceki %2,8'den bir düşüş anlamına geliyor.

Kişisel tüketimin aylık bazda %0,4 oranında artmaya devam etmesi bekleniyor. Bu da ABD hanelerinin harcamalarını sağlıklı bir hızda sürdürdüğünü gösteriyor.

Other data on Wednesday will include the Chicago PMI as well as pending home sales. On Thursday, the Challenger Layoffs for April might attract some attention but the bigger focus that day will be the ISM manufacturing PMI. The index is expected to have declined in April from 49.0 to 47.9, with investors also likely to track the direction of the employment and prices sub-indices.

The real highlight, however, will be Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, amid the intense speculation about how soon the Fed will cut rates. Jobs growth is projected to have slowed from 228k in March to 130k in April, with the unemployment rate staying unchanged at 4.2%. Average earnings probably grew by 0.3% in April.

A disappointing NFP print, combined with a soft core PCE reading could bolster expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut in June as opposed to July, though bets for the May meeting would likely remain very low. For the US dollar, a worrying set of data would almost certainly be negative, but on Wall Street, stocks could rise if increased rate cut hopes are not overshadowed by recession fears.

BoJ to keep rates steady as outlook deteriorates

The Bank of Japan is not anticipated to announce any changes to its monetary policy settings when it meets on Thursday, as policymakers take time to assess the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on the Japanese economy before deciding whether to hike interest rates again.

Inflation in Japan edged up to 3.2% y/y in March as per the core CPI measure and the BoJ remains confident that the recent wage growth momentum is now becoming more sustainable. However, the downside risks to growth have increased markedly since February when Trump unleashed the first of many waves of tariffs, with Japan not being spared from the universal 10% levies, nor the sectoral tariffs on steel and autos.

The BoJ is therefore expected to lower its growth forecasts in its latest quarterly Outlook Report. The question is whether the Bank will also cut its inflation projections or keep them more or less unchanged. Policymakers don’t think at this stage that tariffs pose a significant danger to their inflation goal so they will probably keep the door to future rate hikes wide open.

If Governor Ueda goes a step further and explicitly signals that further rate hikes are likely in the coming months, this could boost the yen, which is enjoying strong safe-haven demand lately.

In terms of data, the preliminary industrial output for March is due on Wednesday, to be followed by some jobs stats on Friday.

Euro looks to flash GDP and CPI as uptrend stalls

The flash PMI numbers for April painted a grim picture for the Eurozone economy as businesses were hit by a new round of duties. With the impact of the US tariffs on global trade only now being felt, investors will probably ignore the preliminary GDP figures for the first quarter that are out on Wednesday.

Even if the euro area notched up impressive growth in the first three months of the year, this is unlikely to dampen rate cut expectations for the European Central Bank as inflation is falling and growth forecasts are being downgraded. ECB policymakers have already slashed rates by a total of 175 bps and have strongly hinted that they’re not done yet.

If Friday’s flash CPI data shows that inflationary pressures continue to subside, the ECB will have little reason to pause. The headline rate of CPI moderated to 2.2% y/y in March and is forecast to ease further to 2.0% in April.

The euro could come under some pressure if the CPI prints are on the soft side, but the primary driver in the FX domain will be the US dollar, and specifically, sentiment towards Trump’s trade policies. Fresh efforts by the White House to defuse tensions could spur another bounce in the US dollar, setting back the euro’s uptrend.

Australian CPI may not alter RBA bets

Inflation will also be in the spotlight in Australia where the quarterly CPI readings will be published on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia has only cut rates once during this cycle amid slow progress in getting inflation under control.

The monthly measure dipped from 2.5% to 2.4% y/y in February in a huge relief after rising for three consecutive months. The quarterly figure covering the first three months of 2025 is expected to inch lower too. But for the RBA, the underlying gauges of CPI might be more important. If they extend their decline in Q1 and the monthly rate also falls, there would be nothing stopping the RBA from cutting rates in May.

However, this may not necessarily trigger much reaction in the Australian dollar, as a 25-bps rate cut is already fully priced in for May and for almost every other meeting in the remainder of the year.

Aussie traders will also be watching the manufacturing PMIs out of China for any signs that the steep US levies are hurting the world’s second largest economy. Both the official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs are due on Wednesday.

Canadians to likely pick Carney as next PM

Canadians will be voting in a general election on Monday after former Bank of England and Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney called a snap vote following Justin Trudeau’s resignation. Carney’s Liberal party was all set to lose the election until Trump’s trade tirade reinvigorated the party among voters.

Trudeau’s and Carney’s handling of Trump’s threats to Canada’s economy as well as its sovereignty appear to have earned them plaudits, pushing the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives, who were poised for victory before the trade war escalation.

There’s still room for surprises, however, as the Liberals may fail to win a majority, and with their current coalition partners, the New Democratic Party, expected to lose most of its seats, a hung parliament may not go down well with Canada’s stock market and the local dollar.

Ancak Liberaller çoğunluğu sağlarsa, Kanada doları biraz değer kazanabilir. Ancak Muhafazakarların şok edici bir zaferinden daha fazla faydalanması muhtemel, zira Muhafazakarlar daha büyük vergi indirimleri sözü verdi.

Kaynak: XM