Sebab Kejatuhan Saham Nvidia: Mengapa NVDA Menurun pada 2026?

Saham Nvidia telah mengalami tekanan pada Oktober 2026, menyebabkan pelabur tertanya-tanya mengapa salah satu pemenang terbesar ledakan AI sedang bergelut. Jawapannya melangkaui satu tajuk utama yang mengecewakan. Sekatan eksport China, persaingan yang semakin meningkat, kebimbangan inflasi dan persoalan tentang perbelanjaan AI semuanya membebani NVDA, walaupun perniagaan asas Nvidia terus berkembang.

Mengapa Saham Nvidia Menjunam pada Tahun 2026?

Sebab utama di sebalik penurunan saham Nvidia baru-baru ini adalah gabungan risiko khusus syarikat dan tekanan yang lebih luas terhadap saham teknologi.

Pada 14 Oktober, saham Nvidia jatuh kira-kira 3.6% dalam dagangan petang apabila data inflasi AS yang lebih panas daripada jangkaan mendorong hasil Perbendaharaan lebih tinggi. Pada masa yang sama, pelabur sedang mencerna laporan penurunan penghantaran cip Nvidia ke China dan peningkatan persaingan daripada pemproses AI alternatif.

Perkembangan ini telah membuatkan pelabur mempertimbangkan semula berapa banyak yang mereka sanggup bayar untuk pendapatan masa depan Nvidia.

Penurunan Saham Nvidia Baru-baru Ini

Nvidia mencapai paras tertinggi 52 minggu iaitu kira-kira $243.37 pada 6 Oktober 2026. Menjelang penutupan 29 Oktober, saham berada sekitar $213.66, mewakili penurunan kira-kira 12.2% daripada paras tertinggi tersebut.

Itu adalah pembetulan yang bermakna, walaupun ia tidak layak sebagai penurunan pasaran menurun sebanyak 20%.

Perbezaan ini penting kerana harga saham Nvidia yang jatuh tidak semestinya bermaksud perniagaannya semakin mengecut. Pelabur mungkin hanya menyesuaikan jangkaan mereka selepas kenaikan yang kukuh.

Sebab Utama Di Sebalik Penurunan Saham Nvidia

Risiko-risiko ini saling berkaitan. Apabila pelabur menjadi kurang yakin tentang pertumbuhan masa hadapan, mereka mungkin memberikan penilaian yang lebih rendah kepada Nvidia walaupun tanpa kemerosotan pendapatan serta-merta.

5 Sebab Utama Saham Nvidia Jatuh

1. Sekatan Eksport China Menjejaskan Kedudukan Pasaran Nvidia

China kekal sebagai pasaran penting untuk perkakasan pengkomputeran AI, tetapi keupayaan Nvidia untuk menjual cip paling canggihnya di sana telah dikekang oleh peraturan eksport AS.

Laporan berdasarkan data IDC menunjukkan bahawa Nvidia telah menghantar kira-kira 678,000 pemecut AI ke China semasa separuh pertama tahun 2026, menurun 44% berbanding tempoh yang sama tahun sebelumnya.

Its reported share of China's AI chip market fell to 34%, while Huawei gained ground with a share of approximately 28%.

These figures highlight a problem that extends beyond short-term revenue.

If Chinese technology companies build their AI infrastructure around domestic processors, Nvidia may struggle to regain customers even if export restrictions eventually ease.

This creates two risks for investors: lost sales today and potentially weaker competitive positioning tomorrow.

The concern is not that Nvidia has lost its global leadership in AI chips. It is that geopolitical restrictions could permanently reduce its opportunity in one of the world's largest technology markets.

2. Investors Are Questioning the Sustainability of AI Spending

Nvidia's extraordinary growth has been supported by massive investment in AI infrastructure.

Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and other technology companies have spent heavily on data centers, GPUs, networking equipment, and computing capacity.

That spending has been enormously beneficial for Nvidia.

However, investors increasingly want evidence that AI infrastructure investments will generate attractive financial returns.

Building AI data centers is expensive. Companies must pay for hardware, electricity, cooling, networking, and ongoing operations.

If AI-related revenue fails to grow quickly enough, major customers could eventually slow their capital expenditure plans.

Even a moderate slowdown could affect Nvidia because its valuation reflects expectations of continued strong growth.

This does not mean the AI investment cycle is ending. It means the market is paying closer attention to whether spending can remain elevated over several years.

3. Competition in AI Chips Is Increasing

Nvidia remains the leading supplier of high-performance AI accelerators, supported by its CUDA software ecosystem and integrated computing platforms.

But its customers are also developing alternatives.

Google has its Tensor Processing Units, Amazon develops Trainium processors, and Microsoft has invested in its Maia AI chip family.

AMD is another competitor targeting the AI accelerator market.

Custom chips can be attractive for large cloud companies because they may offer lower costs or better efficiency for specific workloads.

They do not need to outperform Nvidia across every application to become commercially meaningful.

If hyperscalers shift some AI workloads to their own processors, Nvidia could face slower growth in certain product categories.

The key issue is not whether competitors will completely replace Nvidia. It is whether Nvidia can maintain its market share, pricing power, and margins as customers gain more choices.

4. Inflation and Interest Rates Are Pressuring Technology Stocks

Nvidia's share price is also influenced by economic conditions that have little to do with chip demand.

Higher inflation can push bond yields upward and reduce expectations for interest-rate cuts.

That matters particularly for growth stocks.

When interest rates rise, investors generally place a lower present value on earnings expected far into the future. Companies trading at elevated earnings multiples can therefore experience larger price declines.

This dynamic was visible during the October 14 selloff, when stronger inflation data contributed to broad weakness across technology and semiconductor stocks.

Nvidia is especially sensitive to changes in market sentiment because investors expect it to deliver substantial earnings growth for years.

Even strong companies can experience sharp corrections when financial conditions become less favorable.

5. Nvidia's High Expectations Leave Little Room for Disappointment

One of Nvidia's biggest stock-market challenges is that investors already expect exceptional results.

Strong earnings alone may not be enough to push NVDA higher.

The company often needs to exceed forecasts, deliver convincing guidance, and reassure investors that future demand remains robust.

Consider two possible situations:

• Nvidia reports 40% revenue growth, but investors expected 50%.
• Nvidia reports record revenue, but management signals slower growth or weaker margins next quarter.

In either case, the stock could decline despite impressive headline results.

This is the difference between a successful company and a successful investment at a particular price.

A business can continue expanding while its stock falls because the market previously priced in even faster growth.

Is Nvidia's Business Actually in Trouble?

Despite the stock decline, Nvidia's latest reported financial results show that demand for its AI products remains strong.

According to Nvidia's official second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings release, the company reported record revenue for the quarter ended July 26, 2026.

The numbers do not suggest an immediate collapse in Nvidia's core business. Revenue more than doubled year over year, while Data Center sales continued to dominate its growth.

Management also projected approximately $108 billion in revenue for the following quarter, although that outlook excluded Data Center compute revenue from China.

That last detail is important. Nvidia is still growing rapidly, but the company is planning around significant geopolitical limitations.

Why Strong Earnings May Not Stop the Stock From Falling

Investors buy stocks based on future expectations, not simply past performance.

Nvidia's recent results demonstrate substantial demand for AI infrastructure. However, the stock market must also consider how long that demand can continue and whether future profits justify the share price.

If earnings grow more slowly than expected, Nvidia's valuation multiple could contract.

For example, a stock trading at 35 times expected earnings would be worth roughly 20% less at 28 times earnings, assuming the earnings forecast remained unchanged.

This illustrates how a share price can fall sharply without a comparable decline in company profits.

Will Nvidia Stock Recover After the Plunge?

A recovery is possible, particularly if Nvidia continues delivering strong earnings and investors regain confidence in long-term AI spending.

However, the timing and size of any rebound will depend on several developments.

Bullish Scenario: AI Demand Remains Strong

In a bullish scenario, Nvidia maintains its leadership in AI computing while demand for advanced chips continues expanding.

The company benefits from increased AI inference workloads, the rollout of newer architectures, and continued investment by major cloud providers.

Strong revenue growth and stable profit margins could encourage investors to assign Nvidia a higher valuation again.

An improvement in export conditions would provide another potential catalyst, although it is not necessary for Nvidia to continue growing outside China.

Base Scenario: Growth Continues, but the Stock Remains Volatile

Nvidia could continue reporting impressive financial results while its share price moves sideways or experiences additional corrections.

This would be consistent with a market gradually adjusting its valuation expectations.

Revenue growth might remain strong but moderate from exceptionally high levels. Meanwhile, concerns about interest rates, competition, and AI infrastructure spending could limit near-term gains.

Under this scenario, the company remains financially successful, but investors experience more modest returns than during the earlier AI-driven rally.

Bearish Scenario: AI Spending Slows and Margins Weaken

The bearish case would become more convincing if major technology companies reduced AI capital expenditure, competitors gained meaningful market share, or Nvidia experienced sustained margin pressure.

Export restrictions could also create further problems if they expand or prevent Nvidia from participating in important overseas markets.

A combination of slower earnings growth and a lower valuation multiple could produce additional stock declines.

These scenarios describe possible outcomes rather than specific price forecasts.

What Should Investors Watch Next?

The next major developments will help determine whether Nvidia's recent correction is temporary or signals a more lasting change in market expectations.

Margin kasar Nvidia wajar diberi perhatian khusus. Syarikat itu melaporkan margin kasar GAAP 75.0% pada suku terakhirnya dan menunjukkan arah kira-kira 74.0% pada suku berikutnya.

Penurunan yang sederhana tidak semestinya menunjukkan masalah yang serius. Peralihan produk, kos pembuatan dan perubahan dalam campuran jualan semuanya boleh menjejaskan keuntungan.

Walau bagaimanapun, kelemahan margin yang berterusan digabungkan dengan pertumbuhan pendapatan yang perlahan akan menjadi lebih membimbangkan.

Pelabur juga boleh memantau laporan kewangan rasmi Nvidia dan kemas kini pendapatan suku tahunan untuk perubahan dalam panduan, komposisi pendapatan dan ulasan pengurusan.

Patutkah Anda Beli Saham Nvidia Selepas Kejatuhan?

Harga saham yang lebih rendah boleh meningkatkan potensi pulangan pelaburan, tetapi ia tidak secara automatik menjadikan saham tersebut murah.

Keputusan itu bergantung kepada sama ada pendapatan masa depan Nvidia dapat menyokong penilaiannya dan berapa banyak turun naik tambahan yang bersedia diterima oleh pelabur.

Bagi pelabur jangka panjang, persoalan yang paling penting ialah sama ada permintaan pengkomputeran AI akan terus berkembang, sama ada Nvidia boleh mempertahankan kelebihan daya saingnya, dan sama ada penilaian semasanya menyediakan ruang yang cukup untuk keputusan yang mengecewakan.

Pedagang jangka pendek menghadapi cabaran yang berbeza. Pergerakan harga Nvidia boleh didorong oleh pengumuman inflasi, pengumuman pendapatan, tajuk utama dasar eksport dan sentimen Nasdaq yang lebih luas.

Penurunan mendadak mungkin menarik minat pembeli, tetapi ia juga boleh diikuti dengan penjualan selanjutnya jika kebimbangan asal masih belum dapat diselesaikan.

Oleh itu, pelabur harus membezakan antara pembetulan yang disebabkan terutamanya oleh sentimen pasaran dan pembetulan yang disokong oleh asas perniagaan yang merosot.

Prestasi kewangan Nvidia pada masa ini memberikan sebab untuk optimis, sementara persaingan, sekatan geopolitik dan penilaian kekal sebagai risiko yang sah.

Kesimpulan Akhir: Mengapa Saham Nvidia Jatuh

Kejatuhan saham Nvidia pada tahun 2026 bukanlah hasil daripada satu kegagalan perniagaan utama.

Sebaliknya, pelabur bertindak balas terhadap beberapa kebimbangan yang bertindih: akses yang lebih lemah kepada pasaran cip AI China, persaingan yang semakin meningkat, ketidakpastian berkaitan perbelanjaan AI masa depan dan tekanan makroekonomi ke atas saham teknologi yang mahal.

Pada masa yang sama, Nvidia terus melaporkan pertumbuhan pendapatan yang luar biasa dan keuntungan yang kukuh.

Itu mewujudkan perbezaan yang penting. Saham Nvidia telah melemah, tetapi perniagaan terasnya tidak menunjukkan kemerosotan yang setanding.

Sama ada NVDA pulih akan kurang bergantung pada kejayaannya yang lalu dan lebih bergantung pada keupayaannya untuk mengekalkan pertumbuhan, melindungi margin dan mewajarkan jangkaan pelabur.

Buat masa ini, persoalan utama bukanlah sama ada Nvidia kekal sebagai syarikat AI terkemuka. Tetapi berapa banyak yang perlu dibayar oleh pelabur untuk kepimpinan itu.

Artikel ini hanyalah untuk tujuan maklumat dan bukan merupakan nasihat pelaburan.