Major Bitcoin LTH Sell-Off Signals Cycle Exhaustion as Supply Drops to 13.6M BTC

BitMine chair Tom Lee has seemingly eased off his widely promoted $250,000 year-end Bitcoin forecast, now only giving it a “maybe” that Bitcoin can reclaim its October all-time high of $125,100 before the end of the year.

“I think it’s still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above $100,000 before year-end, and maybe even to a new high,” Lee said during an interview with CNBC on Wednesday.

This appears to be the first time Lee has publicly softened his $250,000 year-end Bitcoin (BTC) price target, which he initially floated earlier in 2024 and continued to reiterate through early October. 

Lee’s prediction was one of the more bullish. Other crypto executives, including Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, warned around October that “crazy stuff” would need to happen for Bitcoin to reach that level.

Ethereum (ETH) is holding firm around the $2,900 level as improving macro sentiment, renewed whale accumulation, and rising ETF inflows strengthen expectations for a short-term rebound toward $3,400.

Related Reading: Capriole Founder Not Bearish On Bitcoin Despite Headwinds—Here’s Why

With Federal Reserve rate-cut odds now above 80%, traders are positioning for a potential shift in risk appetite that could benefit major cryptocurrencies, especially ETH.

Tether, the entity behind the world’s largest stablecoin by market capitalization, USDT, has experienced a downgrade in its rating by S&P Global. This decision, made public on Wednesday, stems from what the agency describes as “persistent gaps in disclosure” and a growing allocation of “high-risk assets” within Tether’s reserves. 

The assets highlighted include Bitcoin (BTC), gold, corporate bonds, secured loans, and other investments, all of which entail various risks, including credit, market, interest rate, and foreign exchange vulnerabilities.

Tether CEO Responds To S&P Downgrade

In a recent research note, S&P Global detailed that this upgrade came as part of a new assessment scale implemented in 2023, ranging from 1 to 5. This scale evaluates the risk associated with different stablecoins. 

Following the assessment, S&P rated Tether’s USDT stablecoin as “5 (weak),” marking it as the lowest possible score and down from its previous rating of “4 (constrained).” S&P expressed concerns regarding the limited insight Tether provides into the creditworthiness of its custodians and counterparties. 

Despite this, Tether’s CEO, Paolo Ardoino, responded in a social media post on X (formerly Twitter) stating, “We wear your loathing with pride.” He argued that traditional credit rating methods used by agencies like S&P arose from a system that has faltered, leading regulators to challenge these legacy models. 

Ardoino contended that Tether stands out as a “overcapitalized” organization within the financial sector, claiming it does not harbor “toxic reserves.” He further suggested that S&P’s methods are better suited for conventional banks and insurers with opaque financial histories, rather than being applicable to digital asset issuers who operate under different reserve structures.

Ardoino’s remarks indicate a belief that the agency’s downgrade indicates discomfort within traditional finance toward entities like Tether that aim to transcend a “broken financial system.” The firm’s CEO noted: 

Largest Independent Gold Holder

In the aftermath of the downgrade, Tether strongly rejected S&P’s characterizations, emphasizing its resilience through various financial crises, including banking collapses, exchange failures, liquidity challenges, and extreme market fluctuations—all while maintaining full stability and the ability to redeem USDT.

Tether also pointed to its issuance of approximately $184 billion worth of USDT, assuring stakeholders that it holds sufficient reserves, including US Treasuries and other assets, to satisfy redemptions. 

Notably, recent reports from the Financial Times reveal that Tether has emerged as the largest independent holder of gold globally, highlighting the firm’s increasing exposure to non-traditional reserve assets.

According to the report, the stablecoin issuer bought more gold in the last quarter of the year than any central bank in the world. The figures show that the firm bought 26 tons of gold, adding to its substantial gold reserve of nearly 120 tons. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Simon Kim, founder of venture capital firm Hashed, has introduced a real-time dashboard that estimates Ethereum’s fair value at $4,747.4. With Ethereum trading at $3,022.3, the tool suggests an undervaluation of 56.9%. The dashboard updates every two minutes and uses eight distinct valuation models.

The Ethereum Valuation Dashboard combines methods from traditional finance and crypto-native analysis. Kim aims to provide a rigorous valuation approach, reflecting broader institutional interest in fundamental analysis in crypto markets.

Dashboard Combines Traditional and Crypto-Native Valuation Methods

Kim’s dashboard incorporates eight models to assess Ethereum’s intrinsic value. Traditional finance methods include Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), which relies on staking yields, a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio set at 25x, and Revenue Yield analysis. Institutional investors have long used these tools to evaluate equities and bonds.

The dashboard also uses crypto-specific metrics designed to capture blockchain dynamics. These include Total Value Locked (TVL) Multiple, Staking Scarcity, Market Cap to TVL Fair Value, Metcalfe’s Law, and Layer 2 ecosystem valuation. 21Shares research notes that network-based models are gaining popularity as institutions seek to quantify blockchain adoption and its effects.

Metcalfe’s Law, which holds that network value grows with the square of the user base, yielded the highest valuation of $9,583.6 and indicated that Ethereum was 217.1% undervalued. The DCF model arrived at $9,067.8—a 200% undervaluation. Yet the P/E Ratio model suggested Ethereum is 70.2% overvalued at $899.2, and Revenue Yield indicated a 52.4% overvaluation at $1,438.8.

The composite fair value of $4,747.4 is calculated by weighting each model by reliability—high-reliability models are 9 times more influential, medium 5 times, and low 2 times. These scores yielded five buy signals, one hold, and two sell signals across the eight models.

High reliability models include MC/TVL Fair Value, Metcalfe’s Law, DCF (Staking Yield), P/E Ratio, and Revenue Yield. TVL Multiple is rated medium reliability, while Staking Scarcity and Layer 2 Ecosystem models rank as low reliability.

This approach highlights the difficulty of valuing cryptocurrencies. While traditional metrics like P/E ratios and revenue multiples offer proven methodologies, they may miss crucial network dynamics. Crypto-native tools such as Metcalfe’s Law propose frameworks rooted in blockchain adoption, though accurately gauging user activity remains a hurdle.

Market Data Reveals Shifting Ethereum Fundamentals

Current market data shows Ethereum priced at $3,022.3 with a market cap of $365.4 billion and a 24-hour volume of $21 billion. The price remains 38.8% below the all-time high of $4,946.1. Ethereum’s market dominance is 16%, and the ETH/BTC ratio has dropped 24.7% year-over-year to 0.03243. The dashboard also shows Ethereum’s circulating supply and exchange reserves, as well as on-chain activity, including TVL and the staked amount of ETH.

Kim, CEO and Managing Partner of Hashed, has positioned the firm as a leader in blockchain venture capital. His credentials include speaking at major industry events, such as the AI Crypto Summit 2025 and KOOM 2025, where he represents Hashed’s technology-driven investment focus.

Prominent disclaimers on the dashboard stress that all valuation models have limitations. The tool advises investors to consider a range of factors beyond quantitative analysis alone. This reflects the challenges of applying legacy frameworks to a rapidly evolving asset class.

Recent price moves reinforce the need for robust analysis. ZebPay technical analysis reports that Ethereum broke free from a $2,350 to $2,750 trading range in late November 2024, surging almost 25% to $3,442 before finding support at $3,015. Key resistance sits at $3,750, while $3,000 acts as crucial support.

Castries, Saint Lucia, November 27th, 2025, Chainwire

PrimeXBT, a global crypto and CFD broker, has announced a Black Friday offer, giving traders 77% off trading fees on Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Crypto Futures. This discount reflects a drop from the standard 0.045% taker fee down to just 0.01%, with maker fee fixed at 0.01%. The promotion will run from 27 November, 00:00 UTC to 30 November, 12:00 UTC, and is available to all eligible platform users. This limited-time discount enables traders to access the Bitcoin market at significantly reduced costs during one of the industry’s busiest periods.

Alongside the Black Friday promotion, PrimeXBT continues to expand its zero-fee initiatives across a selection of Crypto Futures markets, offering 0 trading fees on 19 popular coins, including NOT, BOME, 1000SATS, RUNE, GALA, and EGLD. This allows traders to access a range of widely traded tokens without incurring taker or maker fees.

According to PrimeXBT, Black Friday marks one of the most active trading weeks globally, and the broker wants to give its clients meaningful advantages during these high-volume periods. This discount on Bitcoin trading fees is designed to give traders more flexibility in managing their strategies, while its zero-fee markets continue to provide long-term cost efficiencies across a range of Crypto Futures.

PrimeXBT’s Crypto Futures platform supports over 100 digital assets, offering deep liquidity, isolated margin accounts, and advanced order types suitable for both short-term and long-term strategies. The 0 fee markets complement an already competitive fee structure that includes tier-based reductions and stable market depth across top crypto pairs.

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According to crypto analyst Tony Severino, the Bitcoin price has broken below the 50-week Moving Average (MA) for the first time in the current cycle, triggering renewed fears of a deeper decline. With price momentum weakening and long-term trend indicators flashing bearish warning signals, the possibility of a price crash to $38,000 is becoming hard to ignore. 

50-MA Breakdown To Trigger $38,000 Bitcoin Price Crash

The Bitcoin price action took a decisive turn this week as the market slipped below the 50 MA for the first time in this four-year cycle. Severino noted in his technical analysis shared on X this Monday that the 50 MA has historically marked the beginning of extended downturns. He stated that following Bitcoin’s launch over 14 years ago, every time it has closed below the 50 MA, a prolonged bear market has followed. 

Severino’s price chart highlights BTC’s price performance from 2017 to date. In the past three Bitcoin bear markets, after the price fell below the 50-week MA, BTC continued to drop an additional 61%, 59%, and 67%. On average, the cryptocurrency has lost 62% from the break point. 

Applying the 62% drawdown to this cycle’s 50 MA level, the analyst predicts Bitcoin could soon experience a price crash to $38,000. From the cryptocurrency’s current price of above $87,000, this represents a staggering 60% decline. Additionally, it would imply a roughly 70% decline from its all-time high of more than $126,000. 

Severino warns that traders calling for a price bottom may be ignoring how far Bitcoin has historically fallen once this long-term trend fails. He indicated that the 50-week MA has repeatedly served as a dividing line between bullish and bearish phases, and that price slipping below it has more often led to extended periods of weakness and capitulation.

Bitcoin Momentum Indicator Falls To Historic Lows

A second analysis presented by Severino focuses on Bitcoin’s daily LMACD, which is now near levels not seen in more than 1,250 days. The oscillator has only pushed below this level six times since BTC’s 2017 macro peak. These past instances correspond to periods of heavy downside momentum where the cryptocurrency had yet to complete its bottoming process. 

Looking at Severino’s price chart, the extended period without revisiting this lower bound suggests Bitcoin may be overdue for a momentum reset. The LMACD indicator’s current reading is also unusually weak historically, signaling that market momentum has not yet reached extreme pessimism. 

The readings further indicate that, although BTC remains in a downtrend, price corrections remain possible before a true bottom is established. According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin is trading below $87,000 amid volatile, choppy conditions that have contributed to its 24% decline over the past month.