Harga logam berharga meningkat sedikit disebabkan oleh ketidaktentuan mengenai prospek ekonomi AS. Sebelum ini, data pekerjaan sektor swasta AS yang lemah dan indeks keyakinan pengguna Universiti Michigan — kedua-duanya berada di bawah jangkaan — menyebabkan peniaga bertaruh pada pemotongan kadar AS yang akan berlaku. Kadar faedah yang lebih rendah boleh mengurangkan kos peluang untuk memegang emas tidak menghasilkan, dengan itu menyokong harganya. Sebaliknya, tanda-tanda bahawa penutupan kerajaan AS mungkin hampir tamat boleh melemahkan daya tarikan aset selamat seperti emas. Selain itu, meredakan ketegangan perdagangan antara China dan AS — dua ekonomi terbesar dunia — mungkin juga menjejaskan harga emas dalam jangka pendek. Permintaan pelaburan emas kekal teguh. Sehingga 7 November, pegangan dalam SPDR Gold Trust, ETF emas terbesar di dunia, meningkat kepada 1,042.06 tan, meningkat 2.86 tan daripada minggu sebelumnya. Menurut laporan Majlis Emas Dunia, ETF emas India menyaksikan aliran masuk modal yang rekod, dengan pembelian tahun ini menghampiri 850 juta. Jumlah aset ETF emas India kini berjumlah $11 bilion, memegang 83.5 tan emas. Gelombang aliran masuk ini didorong oleh gabungan faktor, termasuk emas mencecah paras tertinggi sepanjang masa, pembelian bank pusat yang berterusan, ketidaktentuan geopolitik dan jangkaan pasaran terhadap pelonggaran Fed.  

The U.S. dollar index has recently come under pressure, largely due to a string of weak U.S. economic data. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for November fell to 50.3, its lowest level since June 2022. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October dropped further to 48.7, remaining in contraction territory for the third consecutive month, reflecting slowing economic momentum. Against this backdrop, several Fed officials have made hawkish remarks. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted that current interest rates are close to a "neutral level" and that future rate cuts should proceed cautiously. New York Fed President John Williams also hinted that rates might remain unchanged in December. As a result, market expectations for a rate cut have cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch Tool," the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December is now around 62%, indicating notable divergence in expectations while the market still leans toward easing. In the short term, hawkish comments from Fed officials are limiting gold's upward momentum, as the market gradually considers the reduced likelihood of a December rate cut. However, medium- to long-term allocation funds continue to enter the market at lower levels, providing structural support for gold prices. Currently, the U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key data, including CPI, PPI, and retail sales. The absence of such data may keep gold range-bound in the near term. Nevertheless, rising economic risks from the shutdown, downward pressure on U.S. stocks, and the ongoing trend of global central bank gold purchases all bode well for gold's long-term outlook. If gold can effectively break through the key resistance level of $4,030, it may attract fresh buying interest and initiate a new upward trend. At this stage, any price pullback may be seen as an opportunity for medium- to long-term allocation, as the market awaits a confluence of fundamental and capital-driven catalysts to trigger a breakout.

Based on the 4-hour chart, gold broke above the upper boundary of the triangle pattern. If subsequent retracements do not fall back within the range, the breakout will be confirmed as valid, likely leading to a rally toward the psychological level of $4,100. The MACD moved above the zero axis and formed a "kiss of the angels" (bullish convergence) pattern. In addition, downward momentum is gradually weakening, with lows becoming higher, signaling a potential bottom reversal — suggesting a high probability of further upside. The RSI stands at 69, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market.

Mengenai carta 15 minit, walau bagaimanapun, momentum kenaikan harga MACD secara beransur-ansur lemah walaupun harga membuat paras tertinggi baharu — petanda potensi perbezaan teratas, yang menunjukkan kemungkinan penarikan balik jangka pendek yang lebih tinggi. Tahap sokongan utama termasuk Bollinger Middle Band dan EMA 50, masing-masing pada 4,036. RSI berada pada 72, menunjukkan bahawa harga berada dalam wilayah terlebih beli. Jika harga boleh stabil di atas EMA 50 selepas penarikan balik, ia berkemungkinan menguji platform rintangan seterusnya sekitar $4,133. Oleh itu, pembelian pada harga rendah adalah disyorkan.

Arah dagangan: Beli

Harga penyertaan: 4040

Harga sasaran: 4400

Henti kerugian: 3750

Sokongan: 3900/3800/3600

Rintangan: 4380/4500/5000