ATFX Market Outlook 6th January 2026

Venezuela Tensions Lift Gold and Oil, Dow Faces Test After Record High

Market Highlight

U.S. manufacturing contracted for a tenth consecutive month in December, as tariffs continued to push up costs and weigh on demand. U.S. equities closed higher on Monday, with a sharp rally in financial stocks helping the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a fresh record high. Energy shares also jumped after the United States launched a military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

The U.S. Dollar Index rose to its highest level since December 10 during the session but later reversed lower, ending the day down 0.3% at 98.262.

Gold prices climbed to a one-week high as the U.S. action against Venezuela boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold settled up 2.7% at USD 4,448.19 per ounce. Oil prices gained about USD 1, as traders assessed the potential impact of Maduro’s capture on crude flows from Venezuela, home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves.

Key Outlook 

Markets will focus today on the final December readings of Services and Composite PMIs across major economies. Particular attention will be on whether the U.S. Services PMI can hold at 52.9, which would signal continued expansion in the services sector and provide support for the U.S. economy. In the euro area, Germany’s preliminary December CPI m/m is in focus, with expectations for a rebound to 0.2% from the previous -0.2%. A result in line with or above forecasts would be supportive of the euro.

Key Data and Events Today:

16:55 EU GERMANY Services & Composite PMI Final DEC ** 

17:00 EU Services & Composite PMI Final DEC ** 

17:30 GB Services & Composite PMI Final DEC ** 

21:00 EU GERMANY CPI YoY Prel DEC **  

22:45 US Services & Composite PMI Final DEC **

Tomorrow:

05:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change *** 

15:00 EU GERMANY Retail Sales MoM NOV **  

16:55 EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate DEC **  

18:00 EU CPI YoY Flash DEC **  
21:15 US ADP Employment Change DEC *** 

23:00 US Factory Orders MoM OCT **

23:00 US JOLTs Job Openings NOV **

23:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1763/1.1786

Support: 1.1689/1.1666

EUR/USD stabilized around the 1.17 handle after the recent pullback, suggesting limited follow-through from the dollar’s rebound. Repeated failures above 1.1763 have shifted price action into consolidation mode as markets await key U.S. labor data. As long as the 1.1666–1.1689 area holds, the move appears corrective rather than a trend of reversal.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3565/1.3585

Support: 1.3499/1.3484

GBP/USD has eased from recent highs as modest safe-haven demand supports the dollar, though downside follow-through remains limited. Price action below 1.3499 suggests consolidation rather than reversal, with dip-buying interest likely to emerge near 1.3499–1.3484. Friday’s NFP remains the key catalyst for near-term direction.

USDJPY

Resistance: 157.18/157.44

Support: 156.08/155.82

USD/JPY pulled back as dollar momentum faded and the BoJ reaffirmed its tightening bias, with policy divergence rather than geopolitics driving yen demand. Repeated rejection near 157.18–157.44 highlights lingering upside pressure, while the 156.08–155.82 zone remains pivotal. Holding this area would favor consolidation over a sharper downside move.

US Crude Oil Futures (FEB)

Resistance: 58.86/59.16

Support: 57.58/57.28

WTI spiked as traders reassessed Venezuela-related supply risks, but upside momentum faded near the $58.86–$59.16 resistance zone. The market is now weighing whether supply disruptions will translate into actual barrel losses, rather than pricing a clear trend shift. As long as $57.28–$57.58 holds, price action favors volatile range trading over directional moves.

Spot Gold

Resistance: 4477/4509

Support: 4412/4379

Spot Silver

Resistance: 81.21/83.87

Support: 72.36/69.6

Gold pushed to a one-week high as geopolitical tensions revived demand, but upside stalled near the $4,477–$4,509 area, where selling interest emerged. Price action suggests consolidation rather than an aggressive breakout, as markets wait for clearer escalation in risk sentiment. As long as the $4,379–$4,412 zone holds, the broader bullish structure remains intact.

Dow Futures

Resistance: 49472/49780

Support: 48744/48431

The Dow Futures pushed to fresh record highs, led by strength in energy and financial stocks, as markets lean toward a “risk-contained” view. Despite ongoing geopolitical headlines, investors appear confident that U.S. actions in Venezuela will not escalate into a prolonged conflict. With bids holding above 48,431–48,744, focus now shifts to the 49,472–49,780 area as the next zone of hesitation.

NAS100

Resistance: 25834/26179

Support: 25016/24741

The NAS100 continues to rebound but lags the Dow, highlighting persistent divergence within tech stocks. Repeated hesitation above the 25,834 area suggests investors remain cautious toward elevated valuations, with gains driven more by sentiment repair than fresh conviction. The 25,016–24,741 zone is key near-term support, holding which favors consolidation over a deeper pullback.

BTC     

· Resistance: 95,844/97,077

· Support: 91,938/90,276

Bitcoin rebounded above $93,000, supported by improving risk appetite and tech-sector strength. Selling pressure is emerging near the $95,844–$97,077 zone, limiting follow-through. As long as $90,276–$91,938 holds, BTC favors consolidation over a clear breakout.

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