Trump continua a seminare confusione sui dazi

La scorsa settimana, i mercati finanziari hanno finalmente trovato un po' di sollievo, quando il presidente degli Stati Uniti Trump ha offerto agli investitori un raro barlume di speranza: la luce alla fine del tunnel della guerra commerciale. Tuttavia, non ci è voluto molto perché la luce iniziasse a offuscarsi di nuovo, con il conflitto commerciale che ha preso un'altra piega complicata dopo che è diventato evidente che la ritirata dell'amministrazione Trump nella situazione di stallo con la Cina non è così significativa come previsto in precedenza.

L'approccio "carota e bastone" di Trump nel suo tentativo di portare la Cina al tavolo delle trattative non si sta rivelando molto efficace, soprattutto quando la carota è molto più piccola del bastone. Per Pechino, la guerra commerciale si è intensificata a tal punto da mettere in gioco l'orgoglio nazionale, quindi non sta cedendo così facilmente come Trump aveva previsto. Questo sta già creando problemi alla Casa Bianca, che ha fatto sapere di essere disposta ad abbassare l'esorbitante tariffa del 145% entro due o tre settimane se si raggiunge un accordo.

Ma secondo i funzionari cinesi, le due parti non hanno nemmeno avviato i colloqui, il che mette in dubbio la strategia negoziale di Trump. Inoltre, altre concessioni, ad esempio sui dazi sulle auto per le case automobilistiche statunitensi, sono tutt'altro che concluse, con Trump che ha persino minacciato di aumentarli per le importazioni di auto dal Canada.

Tutto ciò non fa che aggravare l'incertezza per le imprese statunitensi, anziché offrire un po' di chiarezza. Pertanto, sebbene il riconoscimento da parte della Casa Bianca di monitorare le turbolenze del mercato e l'intenzione di Trump di raggiungere accordi commerciali con i principali partner commerciali americani siano un segnale positivo, non contribuiscono ad alleviare i timori immediati sulle prospettive economiche del Paese.

Dollaro e Wall Street sotto osservazione per la recessione

Tali preoccupazioni saranno alimentate o attenuate nella prossima settimana, con l'arrivo di una serie di importanti pubblicazioni economiche. Martedì si darà il via alla discussione con l'indice di fiducia dei consumatori per aprile e le offerte di lavoro JOLTS per marzo. Mercoledì, la stima anticipata della crescita del PIL sarà monitorata con molta attenzione, alla luce di alcune previsioni di contrazione dell'economia statunitense nel primo trimestre.

Il modello GDPNow della Federal Reserve di Atlanta stima un calo annualizzato del 2,2% del PIL, ma gli analisti, secondo un sondaggio Reuters, prevedono una crescita dello 0,4%, in netto calo rispetto al ritmo del 2,4% del quarto trimestre.

Mercoledì sarà pubblicata anche l'indagine ADP sull'occupazione, insieme agli ultimi dati sull'inflazione PCE e sui consumi. Si prevede che l'importantissimo indice dei prezzi PCE core sia aumentato dello 0,1% su base mensile a marzo, raggiungendo un valore annuo del 2,5%, in calo rispetto al precedente 2,8%.

Si prevede che i consumi personali abbiano mantenuto una crescita mensile dello 0,4%, il che suggerisce che le famiglie statunitensi continuano a spendere a un ritmo sostenuto.

Other data on Wednesday will include the Chicago PMI as well as pending home sales. On Thursday, the Challenger Layoffs for April might attract some attention but the bigger focus that day will be the ISM manufacturing PMI. The index is expected to have declined in April from 49.0 to 47.9, with investors also likely to track the direction of the employment and prices sub-indices.

The real highlight, however, will be Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, amid the intense speculation about how soon the Fed will cut rates. Jobs growth is projected to have slowed from 228k in March to 130k in April, with the unemployment rate staying unchanged at 4.2%. Average earnings probably grew by 0.3% in April.

A disappointing NFP print, combined with a soft core PCE reading could bolster expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut in June as opposed to July, though bets for the May meeting would likely remain very low. For the US dollar, a worrying set of data would almost certainly be negative, but on Wall Street, stocks could rise if increased rate cut hopes are not overshadowed by recession fears.

BoJ to keep rates steady as outlook deteriorates

The Bank of Japan is not anticipated to announce any changes to its monetary policy settings when it meets on Thursday, as policymakers take time to assess the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on the Japanese economy before deciding whether to hike interest rates again.

Inflation in Japan edged up to 3.2% y/y in March as per the core CPI measure and the BoJ remains confident that the recent wage growth momentum is now becoming more sustainable. However, the downside risks to growth have increased markedly since February when Trump unleashed the first of many waves of tariffs, with Japan not being spared from the universal 10% levies, nor the sectoral tariffs on steel and autos.

The BoJ is therefore expected to lower its growth forecasts in its latest quarterly Outlook Report. The question is whether the Bank will also cut its inflation projections or keep them more or less unchanged. Policymakers don’t think at this stage that tariffs pose a significant danger to their inflation goal so they will probably keep the door to future rate hikes wide open.

If Governor Ueda goes a step further and explicitly signals that further rate hikes are likely in the coming months, this could boost the yen, which is enjoying strong safe-haven demand lately.

In terms of data, the preliminary industrial output for March is due on Wednesday, to be followed by some jobs stats on Friday.

Euro looks to flash GDP and CPI as uptrend stalls

The flash PMI numbers for April painted a grim picture for the Eurozone economy as businesses were hit by a new round of duties. With the impact of the US tariffs on global trade only now being felt, investors will probably ignore the preliminary GDP figures for the first quarter that are out on Wednesday.

Even if the euro area notched up impressive growth in the first three months of the year, this is unlikely to dampen rate cut expectations for the European Central Bank as inflation is falling and growth forecasts are being downgraded. ECB policymakers have already slashed rates by a total of 175 bps and have strongly hinted that they’re not done yet.

If Friday’s flash CPI data shows that inflationary pressures continue to subside, the ECB will have little reason to pause. The headline rate of CPI moderated to 2.2% y/y in March and is forecast to ease further to 2.0% in April.

The euro could come under some pressure if the CPI prints are on the soft side, but the primary driver in the FX domain will be the US dollar, and specifically, sentiment towards Trump’s trade policies. Fresh efforts by the White House to defuse tensions could spur another bounce in the US dollar, setting back the euro’s uptrend.

Australian CPI may not alter RBA bets

Inflation will also be in the spotlight in Australia where the quarterly CPI readings will be published on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia has only cut rates once during this cycle amid slow progress in getting inflation under control.

The monthly measure dipped from 2.5% to 2.4% y/y in February in a huge relief after rising for three consecutive months. The quarterly figure covering the first three months of 2025 is expected to inch lower too. But for the RBA, the underlying gauges of CPI might be more important. If they extend their decline in Q1 and the monthly rate also falls, there would be nothing stopping the RBA from cutting rates in May.

However, this may not necessarily trigger much reaction in the Australian dollar, as a 25-bps rate cut is already fully priced in for May and for almost every other meeting in the remainder of the year.

Aussie traders will also be watching the manufacturing PMIs out of China for any signs that the steep US levies are hurting the world’s second largest economy. Both the official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs are due on Wednesday.

Canadians to likely pick Carney as next PM

Canadians will be voting in a general election on Monday after former Bank of England and Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney called a snap vote following Justin Trudeau’s resignation. Carney’s Liberal party was all set to lose the election until Trump’s trade tirade reinvigorated the party among voters.

Trudeau’s and Carney’s handling of Trump’s threats to Canada’s economy as well as its sovereignty appear to have earned them plaudits, pushing the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives, who were poised for victory before the trade war escalation.

There’s still room for surprises, however, as the Liberals may fail to win a majority, and with their current coalition partners, the New Democratic Party, expected to lose most of its seats, a hung parliament may not go down well with Canada’s stock market and the local dollar.

Tuttavia, se i liberali dovessero ottenere la maggioranza, il dollaro canadese potrebbe apprezzarsi leggermente, anche se è probabile che trarrebbe maggiori benefici da una sorprendente vittoria dei conservatori, in quanto hanno promesso maggiori tagli fiscali.

Fonte: XM