Arthur Hayes warns Monad could crash 99%, calls it high-risk ‘VC coin’

Crypto veteran Arthur Hayes has issued a warning over Monad, saying the recently launched layer-1 blockchain could plunge as much as 99% and end up as another failed experiment driven by venture capital hype rather than real adoption.

Speaking on Altcoin Daily, the former BitMEX chief described the project as “another high FDV, low-float VC coin,” arguing that its token structure alone puts retail traders at risk. FDV stands for Fully Diluted Value, which is the market value of a crypto project if all its tokens were already in circulation.

According to Hayes, projects with a large gap between FDV and circulating supply often experience early price spikes, followed by deep selloffs once insider tokens unlock. “It’s going to be another bear chain,” Hayes said, adding that while every new coin gets an initial pump, that does not mean it will develop a lasting use case.

Hayes said most new layer-1 networks ultimately fail, with only a handful likely to retain long-term relevance. He named Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL) and Zcash (ZEC) as the small group of protocols he expects to survive the next cycle.

Last year, Monad raised $225 million in funding from venture capital firm Paradigm. The layer-1 blockchain went live on Monday, accompanied by an airdrop of its MON token.

Related: Did Bitcoin bottom? Arthur Hayes Thinks $80,000 Will Hold

Hayes remains bullish

Hayes also laid out a bullish outlook for crypto as a whole, driven almost entirely by renewed monetary expansion. He argued that governments, particularly the United States, are preparing for another wave of liquidity injections ahead of political campaigns and slowing growth.

“I think that we are at the end of the beginning of this cycle and the massive amounts of crazy bull market money printing is ahead of us,” he said.

He also dismissed the widely cited four-year Bitcoin cycle, saying past market booms were fueled not by halvings but by global credit expansion led by the US and China. When liquidity dries up, Bitcoin reacts first, he said, calling it the “last free-market smoke alarm” for the global financial system.

Related: Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Is Dead

Privacy coins to dominate

Looking ahead, Hayes predicted privacy technologies will dominate the next crypto narrative, with zero-knowledge systems and privacy coins seeing renewed interest. He added that institutional adoption is likely to settle on Ethereum, especially through stablecoins and tokenized finance.

Earlier this month, he revealed that Zcash has become the second-largest holding in his family office Maelstrom, trailing only Bitcoin.

Magazine: 2026 is the year of pragmatic privacy in crypto — Canton, Zcash and more