ATFX Market Outlook - 12th March 2026

IEA to Release Record 400M Barrels of Oil Amid Iran Supply Fears

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Summary

·       Record Reserve Release: The IEA will unleash a record 400 million barrels from oil reserves to stem surging energy prices.

·       Escalation in the Middle East: Iran has launched a new wave of attacks on oil tankers and energy storage facilities, warning the market to prepare for oil prices hitting $200 per barrel.

·       Key Focus Today: Beyond the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (expected at 215k, up from 213k), investors are eyeing January’s Housing Starts and Building Permits. Following last July’s peak in housing starts, markets are looking for signs of sustained improvement. Additionally, the IEA’s Monthly Oil Market Report is expected to drive further volatility in crude prices.

Global Market Overview

The U.S. February CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, matching January's growth. As the data met expectations, its market impact was relatively muted. However, U.S. stocks closed lower on Wednesday as hostilities between the U.S., Israel, and Iran appeared to intensify. The Dow Jones fell 0.61%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.08%, while the Nasdaq managed a slight gain of 0.08%. The U.S. Dollar strengthened against the Euro and Yen as investors remained wary of further escalation in the Middle East.

Gold prices edged lower overnight, weighed down by the stronger dollar and heightened inflation concerns, which boosted interest rate expectations. Spot gold closed down 0.3% at $5,175.45 per ounce. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remained volatile but closed higher; while the IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of emergency reserves, the attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz significantly exacerbated fears of supply disruptions.

Key Events Today:

17:00 IEA Monthly Oil Market Report **

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***  

20:30 US Building Permits  JAN **

20:30 US Housing Starts  JAN **

20:30 US Balance of Trade JAN ** 

Tomorrow:

15:00 GB GDP JAN **

15:00 GB Manufacturing & Industrial Production MoM JAN **

16:00 EU Industrial Production  JAN **

20:30 US GDP & Core PCE Prices Q4 2nd Est ***

20:30 US Core PCE Price Index  JAN ***

20:30 US Durable Goods Orders JAN **

20:30 CA Unemployment Rate FEB**

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel MAR ***

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1653/1.1712
Support: 1.1459/1.1383

EUR/USD weakened on Wednesday as risk aversion grew. New Iranian attacks on energy facilities boosted USD haven demand, outweighing the impact of an in-line US CPI report.

Analyst View: The pair remains trapped in a bearish channel, currently testing the resilience of the 1.1520 level. Escalating Middle East tensions and surging energy costs are dampening rate cut hopes, capping Euro’s recovery. A breach below 1.1459 could expose the 1.1383 channel floor.

Bias: Bearish below 1.1600.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3484/1.3538
Support: 1.3308/1.3255

Sterling remained flat as the Middle East escalation and potential oil supply shocks raised inflation concerns for the UK, counterbalancing any USD softening from the mild CPI.

Analyst View:Sterling is currently capped below 1.3484 and remains within a clear bearish channel. Any rebound remains fragile as oil shock risks offset Dollar weakness. A breach of 1.3308 would likely open the door for a retest of the 1.3255 support level.

Bias: Bearish below 1.3400.

USDJPY

Resistance: 159.74/160.36
Support: 158.29/157.66

USD/JPY strengthened as Iranian warnings and vessel attacks fueled panic. Even Japan's decision for a standalone reserve release failed to curb Yen weakness against a surging USD.

Analyst View: The pair is rejecting the recent support near 158.29. While Japan's solo reserve release highlights the crisis's urgency, yield differentials and energy security risks keep bulls in control. A decisive break above 159.74 could clear the path toward 160.36 and beyond.

Bias: Trading at elevated levels above 158.

US Crude Oil Futures (APR)

Resistance: 95.35/102.85
Support: 83.22/77.15

Oil surged nearly 5% to $92 on Wednesday. Fourteen vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's $200 price warning fueled intense fears of supply disruptions, overshadowing efforts to release strategic reserves.

Analyst View: The analyst notes that WTI rebounded sharply after testing support at 83.22 and is now challenging resistance at 95.35. Despite the IEA's proposed reserve releases, the analyst highlights that the potential 15M bpd supply gap in the Gulf presents a significant risk. The analyst believes that a decisive break above 95.35 could open the way to the 102.85 target.

Bias: Bullish above $90.

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 5284/5354
Support: 5063/4994

Spot Silver

Resistance: 89.34/91.51
Support: 80.10/82.31

Gold fell 0.4% to $5,169.02 on Wednesday as a strengthening USD (up 0.4%) and persistent high-interest rate fears pressured the metal, offsetting some safe-haven demand from escalating tensions in Iran.

Analyst View: Gold is fluctuating above the 5,131 support, showing signs of consolidation within its ascending channel. As markets weigh geopolitical risks against the Fed's rate path, reclaiming the 5,200 handle is crucial for bulls to retest the 5,284 resistance zone.

Bias: Consolidation/Corrective below $5,200.

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 47853/48247
Support: 46826/46522

The Dow fell 0.61%. Surging oil prices reignited stagflation fears, and reports of tighter lending at JPMorgan offset a mild CPI report, as war escalation outweighed corporate earnings and rate pause hopes.

Analyst View: The Dow is trending lower within an accelerated descending channel and is currently testing the 46,826 support level. While oversold conditions persist, risk-off sentiment driven by geopolitical risk remains dominant. Failure to hold 46,522 could expose further downside; a recovery first requires reclaiming the 47,853 resistance zone.

Bias: Bearish below 47,700.

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 25228/25450
Support: 24731/24506

The NAS100 edged up 0.08%, outperforming the broader market. A 9.2% jump in Oracle shares and resilience in the chip sector provided support, balancing out geopolitical risk-driven valuation pressures.

Analyst View: The NAS100 is oscillating within a downtrend channel, attempting to hold the 24,731 support. While tech shows defensive traits amid surging energy costs, the bearish trend persists unless the 25,228 resistance zone is reclaimed. A breach below 24,506 could expose the index to a deeper slide toward the 24,288 mark.

Bias: Bearish below 24,900.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 72733/74072

Support: 68299/66936

Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $70,639.9 on Wednesday, hovering near $70k as traders balanced an in-line CPI report against the ongoing Iran conflict. The 2.4% annual inflation reading was largely ignored as "old news" due to recent oil price shocks.

Analyst View: Bitcoin is consolidating above the 68,299 support, showing resilience amid macro volatility. While geopolitical tensions weigh on risk appetite, BTC is attempting to break its descending trendline. Reclaiming 71,347 would likely reignite bullish momentum toward the 72,733 resistance zone.

Bias: Bullish above 66,936.

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