ATFX Market Outlook - 22nd June 2026

Eyes on US-Iran Talks as Market Weighs Possible Resignation of UK PM

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

US and Iran began peace talks in Switzerland after President Trump warned of renewed hostilities due to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz amid Israel-Lebanon tensions.

This week focuses on inflation and growth concerns, with the US PCE Price Index and global PMI figures impacting policy expectations. Highlights include Eurozone Consumer Confidence (expected to improve but still negative) and Canada CPI (forecast at 3.0%, up from 2.8%).

Global Market Review

US markets were closed on Friday. The US Dollar rose 1%, reaching a 13-month high. Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,160, while WTI crude rebounded slightly amid US-Iran developments.

Key Events Today:

June 22 (GMT+8)

09:15 CN Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y JUN **

20:30 CA CPI MoM MAY **

22:00 EU Consumer Confidence Flash JUN **

June 23 (GMT+8)

NYMEX Crude Oil July Futures Expire

07:00 AU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN **

08:30 JP Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN **

15:30 EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN **

16:00 EU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN **

16:30 GB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN **

21:45 US Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN ***

22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index JUN **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1500 / 1.1518

Support: 1.1452 / 1.1438

During Monday’s early Asian session, EUR/USD fell to 1.1460 as market anxieties grew over US-Iran peace talks, despite comments from ECB officials suggesting further rate hikes.

Analyst View: EUR/USD is near late-March lows, with resistance above 1.1500. Ongoing US-Iran tensions and ECB rate-hike talk weigh on it. Key support to watch is at 1.1452 / 1.1438.

Bias: Under pressure

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3288 / 1.3306

Support: 1.3191 / 1.3173

Cable (GBPUSD) declined this morning, reversing Friday's gains from stronger UK retail sales data. A Bloomberg report suggests Prime Minister Keir Starmer may announce his resignation timeline soon, potentially as early as today.

Analyst View: GBP/USD opened lower but bounced above 1.3200, near late March lows. Focus is on a potential Starmer statement, and political uncertainty, along with global tensions, may limit gains for the cable.

Bias: Under pressure

USDJPY

Resistance: 161.77 / 161.89

Support: 161.24 / 161.12

USD/JPY saw renewed support in Monday's Asian session as it aimed for the 161.50 level, following a minor pullback. Safe-haven demand for the dollar increased amid rising uncertainty over the US-Iran situation.

Analyst View: USD/JPY hovers near recent highs as safe-haven demand persists. Upside is capped by possible intervention by Japanese authorities.

Bias: Consolidating at highs

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

Resistance: 78.25 / 79.39

Support: 74.40 / 73.49

Crude oil prices jumped this morning after Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz due to renewed hostilities with Israel in Lebanon. This closure and unstable peace negotiations led to a nearly 2% increase in crude prices.

Analyst View: Crude oil trimmed gains after an early spike. The rebound lacks momentum, and volatility is expected, with a focus on support at $74.40/$73.49.

Bias: Biased to the downside

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4298/4342

Support: 4161/4118

Spot Silver

Resistance: 69.05/69.92

Support: 64.37/63.26

Spot gold rebounded this morning after its third consecutive weekly decline, while spot silver sought to end its three-day losing streak. However, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and uncertainty in US-Iran negotiations continue to pressure precious metals.

Analyst View: Gold rebounded, testing the 110-day moving average at $4,220. If it fails, selling pressure could push it back toward $4,100, with immediate support at $ 4,161 and $4,118.

Bias: Mild rebound

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 52076 / 52338

Support: 51202 / 50995

After last Friday's US holiday, market participants are focusing on the US-Iran situation. President Trump's warnings may dampen risk appetite, adding to challenges for US equities amid rising expectations of more Fed rate hikes.

Analyst View: The Dow fluctuated between gains and losses before closing mostly unchanged, holding within a relatively elevated range despite failing to reclaim the 52,000 mark.

Bias: Consolidating at highs

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 30756 / 31053

Support: 29777 / 29475

The Nasdaq is set for a volatile session due to US-Iran talks. Any deterioration in negotiations could pull the index down, especially after last week’s gains following the brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have faded due to this weekend's escalation.

Analyst View: Nasdaq’s recovery faces resistance from a declining trendline, while moving averages provide support. Expect headline-driven volatility.

Bias: Neutral (Wait-and-see)

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 65330/66308

Support: 61253/60307

Bitcoin rose above $64,000 on Sunday, recovering from last week’s dip as investors watched U.S.-Iran negotiations and bullish trends in crypto derivatives.

Analyst View: BTC/USD tested its 10-day and 20-day moving averages this morning. A breakout above these levels could lead to a move past $65,000 and return to last week’s highs.

Bias: Mild rebound

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