ATFX Market Outlook 28th January 2026

Gold hits fresh record high, All Eyes on the Federal Reserve Decision

Market Highlight

The S&P 500 barely managed a record closing high on Tuesday, its fifth straight day of gains, as investor optimism ahead of megacap earnings reports was offset by a mixed reception to the latest results and a massive selloff in health insurer stocks.

The US dollar was grappling with a "crisis of confidence" as it fell towards four-year lows on Wednesday, after President Donald Trump brushed off its recent weakness, further fueling dollar selling and lifting the yen, euro and sterling.

Gold prices jumped more than 3% to an all-time high on Tuesday, as persistent economic and geopolitical uncertainty drove investors into the safe-haven metal. Oil prices settled 3% higher on Tuesday, as producers reeled from a winter storm that hobbled crude production and pushed US Gulf Coast crude exports to zero over the weekend.

Key Outlook

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to pause its series of interest rate cuts on Wednesday. Still, solid GDP growth, relatively low unemployment and stubborn inflation have prompted it to shift to a wait-and-see mode.

[Financial data and events of significant concern]

08:30 AU CPI DEC **

15:00 EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence FEB **

22:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision ***

23:30 BoC Press Conference ***

23:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

Tomorrow

03:00 Fed Interest Rate Decision ***

03:30 Fed Press Conference ***

18:00 EU Economic Sentiment JAN **

21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

21:30 US Balance of Trade NOV ** 

23:00 US Factory Orders NOV **

EURUSD

1.2093/1.2127 Resistance

1.1977/1.1950 Support

The euro breached the $1.2 level for the first time since 2021, recording its biggest gain since early August last year. After a sustained surge, the market is now focused on the key guidance from the Federal Reserve's decision. EURUSD may continue to rise towards 1.2100.

GBPUSD

1.3879/1.3905 Resistance

1.3759/1.3733 Support

GBPUSD, near its highest level since 2021, posted its biggest single-day gain in a year. With limited domestic guidance in the UK, the Fed's decision will determine whether the rate can continue its upward trend towards the 1.3900 level. The market may make some profits and wait and see before the decision is announced.

USDJPY

153.78/154.30 Resistance

151.73/151.12 Support

The softened Japanese yen gained further ground amid dollar selling. It was hovering near a three-month high amid talk of the US and Japan conducting rate checks, often seen as a precursor to official intervention. USDJPY hit the lowest level since the end of October last year. If speculation about intervention continues to push the exchange rate lower, it may target the 150 level.

US crude oil futures (AUG)

63.22/63.89 Resistance

61.61/60.92 Support

Oil prices surged on Tuesday as producers reeled from a winter storm that hobbled crude production and pushed US Gulf Coast crude exports to zero over the weekend. Prices have reached their highest level since October last year and are now stabilising above $62, as the market awaits the Federal Reserve's decision. Optimistic comments could provide further support for oil prices.

Spot Gold

5226/5245 Resistance

5131/5116 Support

Spot Silver

117.86/123.38 Resistance

106.64/99.70 Support

Gold surged above $5,200 an ounce on Wednesday to a record high, extending a historic rally amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty that has driven demand for the safe-haven yellow metal. The Federal Reserve's decision will be key to whether the gold price rally will continue.

Dow Futures

49480/49789 Resistance

48436/48036 Support

Dow Futures tumble after the Trump administration proposed raising Medicare insurer payment rates. Pay close attention to the Federal Reserve's decision to see whether it expresses concern about policy uncertainty or emphasises patience regarding further rate cuts. If the Dow Jones continues to decline, it may target 48436/48036.

NAS100

26094/26269 Resistance

25817/25644 Support

Nasdaq reached its highest level since late October, amid a focus on earnings reports and US policy decisions. If the NAS100 extends its five-day winning streak, it could target the key resistance level of 26,288, the previous high.

BTC

89599/91193 Resistance

86439/84440 Support

Bitcoin rallied above $89,000 after President Trump's remarks pushed the dollar to its lowest level in nearly 4 years. Watch the Fed's decisions' impact on Bitcoin prices. If the rebound continues, it may target resistance at 89599/91193; if it pulls back, it may test support at 86439/84440.

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