XRP, 주요 지지선 약화로 하락 가능성 직면

XRP는 모멘텀 약화와 불안정한 기술적 구조로 인해 주요 지지선이 위협받으면서 다시 하락 압력에 직면하고 있습니다. 트레이더들은 매수세가 최근의 지지선을 방어할 수 있을지, 아니면 지속적인 매도세가 더 큰 조정으로 이어질지 주시하고 있습니다.

XRP 가격 약세, 주요 지지선에 대한 우려 제기

최근 XRP 가격 움직임은 단기 전망에 대한 우려를 증폭시키고 있습니다. 지속적인 회복세를 보이기는커녕, XRP는 상승 모멘텀을 되찾는 데 어려움을 겪으며 추가적인 매도 압력에 취약한 상태입니다. 이러한 약세는 XRP가 과거 매수자들이 시장 방어를 시도했던 수준에 근접하고 있다는 점에서 중요합니다.

COINOTAG의 2026년 11월 6일 일일 기술적 분석에서는 1.1826달러를 기준 가격으로 사용하여 즉각적인 지지선은 1.1766달러, 저항선은 1.2226달러로 파악했습니다. 분석 결과, 가격이 모니터링 대상인 8개의 이동평균선 모두 아래에 위치하여 강한 하락 추세가 나타났습니다. 이러한 수치는 특정 일일 가격 변동을 나타내는 것이며, 영구적인 가격 수준을 의미하는 것은 아닙니다.

이번 하락세는 일시적인 장중 조정 이상의 의미를 지닙니다. XRP는 상승세를 유지하는 데 어려움을 겪고 있으며, 기술적 지표는 단기적으로 매도세가 우위를 점하고 있음을 시사합니다. 자산 가격이 하락 후 반복적으로 회복하지 못할 경우, 시장 참여자들은 특히 전반적인 시장 심리가 불확실한 상황에서 일시적인 반등에 대한 매수 의지가 약해질 수 있습니다.

이동평균은 트레이더들이 단기적인 변동과 장기적인 추세를 구분하는 데 도움을 줍니다. 자산 가격이 여러 주요 이동평균선 아래에서 거래될 경우, 해당 이동평균선들은 반등 시도 시 저항선 역할을 할 수 있습니다. XRP가 모니터링되는 이동평균선 아래에 위치해 있다는 것은 매수자들이 확실한 추세 반전을 이루기 위해서는 단기적인 반등 이상의 움직임이 필요할 수 있음을 시사합니다.

하지만 기술적 약세가 추가 하락을 의미하는 것은 아닙니다. 인근 지지선 부근에서 수요가 반등하여 시장 안정에 도움이 될 수 있습니다. 중요한 것은 매수세가 이러한 안정세를 지속적인 회복세로 전환시킬 수 있느냐는 것입니다.

XRP 회복세에 걸림돌이 되는 약세 기술 지표

XRP에 대한 신중한 전망에는 여러 기술적 지표가 영향을 미치고 있습니다. 특히 상대강도지수(RSI), 이동평균, 그리고 이동평균수렴발산(MACD)과 같은 모멘텀 지표들이 주목받고 있습니다.

The RSI measures the speed and magnitude of recent price movements. It generally ranges from zero to 100, with readings below 30 commonly interpreted as oversold and readings above 70 as overbought. COINOTAG's November 6 assessment placed XRP's daily RSI at approximately 33.3, while its four-hour RSI stood near 28.0. The shorter timeframe therefore showed more pronounced selling pressure.

A four-hour RSI below 30 can attract buyers looking for a technical rebound. Nevertheless, an oversold reading does not prove that a decline has ended. During a persistent downtrend, an asset can remain oversold as sellers continue to dominate trading activity.

The MACD offers another way to evaluate whether bearish momentum is strengthening or weakening. When the MACD line remains below its signal line and both sit in negative territory, traders generally interpret the configuration as evidence of downward momentum. The November 6 daily snapshot showed a negative MACD reading and a negative histogram, consistent with a bearish momentum signal.

The broader concern is that any potential rebound has not yet been supported by convincing evidence of a trend reversal. Even if selling pressure begins to ease, buyers will need to push the price higher and maintain those gains to change the technical picture. Moving averages add another challenge: XRP needs to recover important short-term averages before traders can confidently argue that its downward structure is improving.

Can XRP Hold the $1.18 Support Level?

The $1.18 area has become an important near-term reference point for XRP traders. It sits close to the technical support identified at $1.1766, making this zone worth monitoring as the market attempts to stabilize.

A successful defense could give buyers an opportunity to slow the decline and establish a short-term trading range. However, repeated tests of the same support can weaken confidence in its ability to hold, particularly when buying interest remains limited.

The next technical support levels in the November 6 snapshot were around $1.1382 and $1.0497. These are potential areas to monitor if selling pressure intensifies, not guaranteed price targets. Their relevance may change as new daily candles form and market conditions evolve.

The distinction between an intraday move below support and a confirmed breakdown is important. A temporary dip may reflect short-term volatility or stop-loss activity. A sustained daily close below $1.1766 would provide stronger evidence that sellers have gained additional control.

Traders may therefore focus on daily closing prices, trading volume and the market's response to recovery attempts. A breakdown accompanied by expanding selling volume would generally carry more bearish significance than a brief move below support followed by a rapid recovery.

A Failed Recovery Could Increase Downside Risks

If XRP cannot defend the $1.18 region, attention may shift toward lower support areas. Such a move would reinforce the existing bearish structure and potentially encourage additional selling from short-term traders.

The first challenge for buyers would be to prevent the market from establishing a sustained position below nearby support. If that effort fails, the next technical areas around $1.14 and $1.05 could become increasingly relevant.

A breakdown could also affect market psychology. Traders who previously viewed the decline as a temporary correction may reconsider their positions if XRP continues making lower lows. This could increase selling pressure, especially among participants using leverage or following short-term technical signals.

Nevertheless, a bearish scenario would become less convincing if XRP quickly recovered the broken support area. Such a move could indicate that the breakdown was a temporary liquidity event rather than the beginning of another extended downward movement. Confirmation matters more than a single price print.

What Could Invalidate the Bearish XRP Outlook?

Despite the negative short-term structure, XRP's downside outlook is not irreversible. A meaningful recovery would require buyers to demonstrate that selling pressure is fading and that demand can support higher prices.

The first positive signal would be a sustained move above immediate resistance near $1.2226. A daily close above this level could indicate that buyers are beginning to regain control. The next areas to watch would be $1.2546 and $1.291, where additional technical resistance could limit a recovery.

A stronger bullish signal would emerge if XRP reclaimed these levels with increasing trading volume. Rising prices accompanied by stronger participation would provide better evidence of genuine demand than a low-volume rebound.

There is also an important distinction between short-term and longer-term indicators. COINOTAG's November 6 analysis showed a strong bearish bias on both four-hour and daily charts, while the weekly outlook retained a bullish bias, with weekly RSI near 42.5. This divergence suggests that near-term weakness does not necessarily invalidate the broader recovery structure.

However, the weekly outlook would need confirmation from improving price action. Without that confirmation, short-term bearish momentum could continue to dominate trading decisions.

Broader Cryptocurrency Market Conditions Could Influence XRP

XRP does not trade independently of the wider cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin's direction, overall risk appetite and liquidity conditions can influence demand for major altcoins.

When Bitcoin experiences significant selling pressure, investors may reduce exposure to other cryptocurrencies, including XRP. This can make it more difficult for XRP to recover even when its own technical indicators begin showing signs of stabilization.

The broader market environment also matters because institutional and retail investors often adjust cryptocurrency exposure according to macroeconomic expectations. Changes in interest-rate expectations, inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty can affect demand for risk-sensitive assets.

Derivatives activity is another factor. High leverage can amplify price movements when markets approach important technical levels. If XRP falls below support while leveraged traders are heavily positioned, forced liquidations could add to selling pressure.

Conversely, declining open interest combined with stabilizing prices could indicate that excessive speculative positioning is being reduced. Such a development would not guarantee a recovery, but it could help create more stable conditions for buyers.

Traders should therefore consider XRP's technical structure alongside Bitcoin's performance, broader market liquidity and derivatives positioning rather than relying on a single indicator.

What Traders Should Watch Before XRP's Next Move

The coming trading sessions could help determine whether XRP is entering another downward leg or attempting to establish a temporary bottom. Several signals deserve particular attention:

• Daily closing prices: A sustained close below nearby support would strengthen the bearish scenario, while a recovery above resistance could weaken it.
• Trading volume: Expanding volume during a decline may confirm stronger selling participation. Increasing volume during a recovery would provide evidence of renewed buying interest.
• RSI recovery: A move back above 30 on shorter timeframes could indicate easing selling pressure, although it would not independently confirm a trend reversal.
• Bitcoin direction: A continued decline across the broader cryptocurrency market could make XRP's recovery more difficult.
• Derivatives positioning: Changes in open interest, funding rates and liquidations may reveal whether speculative selling is intensifying.

These indicators are most useful when they point in the same direction. For example, a move above resistance supported by stronger spot-market volume and improving momentum would provide a more convincing bullish signal than an isolated price spike.

XRP Price Outlook: Further Declines Remain Possible

XRP's immediate technical outlook remains cautious as weakening momentum and nearby support create an unfavorable short-term trading environment. If buyers fail to defend the current price structure, the cryptocurrency could face additional downside pressure, with lower support areas becoming increasingly important.

Nevertheless, the possibility of a rebound should not be dismissed. Oversold conditions, improving weekly momentum and a recovery above immediate resistance could change the market's direction.

현재 핵심 쟁점은 매수세가 일시적인 반등에 그치지 않고 지속적인 방어선을 구축할 수 있을지 여부입니다. XRP가 더 강력한 수요를 보여주고 중요한 기술적 지지선을 회복하기 전까지는 추가 하락 위험이 여전히 존재합니다.

트레이더는 확정된 가격 변동, 거래량 및 전반적인 암호화폐 시장 상황을 모니터링한 후 다음 주요 추세에 대한 결론을 내려야 합니다. 기술적 지지선은 유용한 참고 지점을 제공하지만, 추가 손실을 막아주는 것은 아닙니다.