에버노스, 수십억 XRP가 거래소에서 빠져나가면서 XRP 공급 충격 경고

에버노스가 수십억 개의 XRP 토큰이 암호화폐 거래소에서 유출되는 반면 대규모 보유자들은 계속해서 토큰을 축적하고 있다는 점을 지적하면서 XRP 공급 부족 우려가 다시금 주목받고 있습니다. 이러한 추세는 거래 가능한 XRP 물량을 감소시켜 수요가 증가할 경우 가격 민감도를 높일 수 있습니다. 그러나 거래소 유출만으로는 즉각적인 공급 충격이나 지속적인 가격 상승을 보장할 수는 없습니다.

Evernorth는 XRP 공급 충격 가능성을 강조했습니다.

에버노스는 XRP 시장 역학의 중요한 변화에 주목했습니다. 특정 투자자 그룹이 보유량을 계속 늘리는 동안 중앙 집중식 거래소에서 거래 가능한 토큰의 양은 줄어들 수 있다는 것입니다.

2026년 4월 22일 발표된 업데이트에서 XRP 전문 자산운용사 에버노스는 거래 플랫폼에서 상당한 양의 토큰이 유출되었다고 밝혔습니다. 에버노스가 인용한 데이터에 따르면 2월 한 달 동안 약 70억 XRP가 거래소에서 빠져나갔으며, 이는 2025년 11월 이후 최대 월간 유출량입니다.

이러한 움직임은 XRP 시장이 상당히 약세를 보이던 시기에 발생했다는 점에서 주목할 만합니다. 일부 투자자들은 단순히 현재의 가격 추세를 따르기보다는 거래소에서 보유 자산을 빼내어 장기 보유를 위한 포지션을 구축하는 움직임을 보였습니다.

Evernorth는 두 가지 동시다발적인 현상을 파악했습니다.

거래소에서 즉시 거래 가능한 XRP 물량이 감소했습니다.

장기 보유 행태를 보이는 투자자 수가 증가하고 있었다.

이러한 추세들이 복합적으로 작용하면 시장 수요가 회복되기 시작할 경우 잠재적인 공급 충격이 발생할 수 있는 상황이 조성될 수 있습니다.

에버노스는 XRP를 재무 자산으로 축적하고 관리하는 사업에 집중하고 있기 때문에 이 논의에서 특히 중요한 기업입니다. SEC 공시에 따르면, 에버노스는 2026년 10월에 기업 결합을 완료했으며 나스닥에서 티커 XRPN으로 거래되고 있습니다.

비서

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하지만 공급 충격 논리는 단순히 거래소에서 빠져나가는 토큰의 수에만 의존하는 것이 아닙니다. 투자자들은 해당 토큰이 어디로 가는지, 다른 경로를 통해 계속 거래 가능한지, 그리고 남은 공급량을 흡수할 만큼의 수요가 얼마나 존재하는지도 고려해야 합니다.

70억 XRP 이상 암호화폐 거래소에서 유출

에버노스의 분석에서 가장 눈에 띄는 수치는 2026년 2월에 발생한 70억 XRP 유출액입니다.

앞서 보도된 크립토퀀트(CryptoQuant) 데이터에 따르면 총 이동량은 약 70억 3천만 XRP에 달합니다. 이는 해당 기간 동안 중앙 집중식 거래 플랫폼에서 이탈한 XRP의 월간 이동량 중 가장 큰 규모 중 하나였습니다.

Binance accounted for the largest portion of the withdrawals, with approximately 3.38 billion XRP leaving its exchange wallets. Bybit recorded around 770 million XRP in outflows, while OKX saw approximately 395 million XRP move away from its platform.

These figures suggest that the movement was not limited to one exchange. Several major trading venues experienced substantial XRP withdrawals during the same month.

The distribution matters because centralized exchanges play an important role in providing immediate liquidity. Their wallets hold assets that customers can use for spot trading, while large changes in exchange balances can influence the amount of cryptocurrency readily accessible to buyers and sellers.

When investors transfer XRP away from exchanges, those tokens may move into private wallets, cold storage or other custody arrangements. Such movements can indicate that holders have less immediate interest in selling through centralized platforms.

Nevertheless, withdrawals should not automatically be interpreted as permanent reductions in selling pressure. Investors can transfer tokens between wallets, use alternative trading venues or return assets to exchanges whenever market conditions change.

The 7.03 billion XRP figure therefore represents an important flow signal rather than proof that the same amount has permanently disappeared from the market's available supply.

thecryptobasic.com

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Why Falling Exchange Balances Matter for XRP

Exchange balances are closely watched because they provide an indication of how much cryptocurrency is held within trading platforms.

When investors transfer assets to exchanges, those tokens become easier to sell through the platforms' trading systems. Large inflows can therefore indicate potential selling pressure, particularly when they occur alongside weakening prices or deteriorating market sentiment.

The opposite movement can have a different interpretation.

When substantial amounts of XRP leave exchanges, the immediately accessible supply may become smaller. If investors continue holding those tokens in private wallets rather than returning them to trading platforms, fewer coins may be available to meet sudden increases in buying demand.

This creates the conditions for a possible supply shock.

A simplified example illustrates the mechanism. If buyers suddenly seek to purchase a large amount of XRP while fewer tokens are available in exchange order books, sellers may demand higher prices before agreeing to sell. This could accelerate upward price movements, especially when liquidity is limited.

However, exchange balances represent only one part of the broader XRP market. Tokens held outside centralized exchanges are not necessarily unavailable for sale, and over-the-counter transactions can take place without immediately appearing in conventional exchange-flow indicators.

For this reason, the significance of Evernorth's observation depends on whether declining exchange availability continues alongside genuine accumulation and stronger market demand.

Retail Wallet Growth Adds Another Layer to the Supply Argument

Exchange withdrawals are not the only development supporting Evernorth's assessment. Wallet distribution data also points to growing participation among investors holding meaningful amounts of XRP.

According to Santiment data reported in April 2026, the number of wallets holding between 1,000 and 100,000 XRP reached approximately 1.1 million, a historical high at the time.

This group had added more than 77,000 wallets since October 2025. Its combined XRP holdings also increased from approximately 10.04 billion to 10.56 billion tokens, representing an accumulation of roughly 520 million XRP.

The increase is particularly interesting because it occurred while XRP was experiencing substantial price weakness.

Rather than indicating that every investor was becoming more optimistic, the data suggests that participation among this particular wallet category continued expanding despite unfavorable market conditions.

This distinction matters. A growing holder base, combined with significant exchange outflows, could indicate that a larger portion of XRP is moving toward investors who are less focused on immediate trading.

Whether this accumulation can translate into a meaningful reduction in available supply remains an important question for the next stage of the market.

Whale Accumulation Reveals a More Complicated Market Picture

Although retail wallet growth supports the supply-tightening argument, large XRP holders are not behaving uniformly.

According to the data highlighted in Evernorth's analysis, wallets holding between 100,000 and 10 million XRP reduced their combined positions by more than 3 billion tokens between October 2025 and April 2026.

In contrast, the largest whale group, holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP, accumulated more than 3.4 billion XRP over the same period.

This divergence suggests that XRP ownership is undergoing a redistribution rather than a straightforward accumulation trend across all investor categories.

The behavior of the largest holders is particularly important because their transactions can influence market liquidity. If these investors continue accumulating and keep their tokens outside exchanges, the amount of XRP immediately available for sale could become more constrained.

However, the selling activity among mid-sized holders shows that confidence is not universal. Some investors may still be reducing exposure, potentially offsetting part of the buying pressure from larger wallets.

For the supply-shock argument to strengthen, sustained accumulation among major holders would need to continue alongside declining exchange availability.

thecryptobasic.com

Why the XRP Supply Shock Argument Faces Some Challenges

Despite the encouraging signals, the reported exchange outflows should be interpreted carefully.

One concern raised by XRP community validator Vet is that CryptoQuant's exchange-balance tracking may not cover every relevant trading platform and wallet address. Incomplete exchange labeling can create an inaccurate picture of total XRP reserves.

Vet also challenged the interpretation that only a very small amount of XRP remains on exchanges, arguing that aggregate balances across trading platforms are substantially higher than some reports suggest.

This distinction is important because monthly outflows and total exchange balances measure different things. A large withdrawal during one month does not necessarily mean that the overall amount of XRP held by exchanges has fallen by the same amount.

Transfers between exchange wallets, internal wallet reorganizations and movements to newly identified addresses can also complicate on-chain analysis.

Consequently, Evernorth's observations provide evidence of changing investor behavior, but they do not independently establish that a market-wide supply shortage has developed.

thecryptobasic.com

What Could Trigger an XRP Supply Shock?

A genuine XRP supply shock would require more than continued withdrawals. It would likely involve several market conditions developing together.

Three indicators deserve particular attention.

1. Continued declines in exchange reserves

   If XRP balances fall consistently across major exchanges, rather than reflecting isolated wallet transfers, the argument for reduced immediately available supply becomes stronger. Consistent data across multiple analytics providers would also improve confidence in the trend.

2. Stronger spot market demand

   Reduced available supply becomes more significant when buyers are actively competing for tokens. Rising spot trading volume, improving liquidity and sustained net buying would help demonstrate that demand is absorbing the available XRP.

3. Continued accumulation by large holders

   If wallets holding substantial XRP balances continue increasing their positions, while exchange reserves decline, the market could become more sensitive to additional buying pressure.

Institutional participation could also influence this dynamic. However, treasury purchases, investment products and actual XRP network usage should be evaluated separately rather than treated as identical sources of demand.

The combination of these indicators would provide stronger evidence of a developing supply shock than exchange withdrawals alone.

XRP Price Outlook: Could Tightening Supply Support a Rally?

Evernorth's analysis presents a potentially constructive longer-term picture for XRP. Billions of tokens reportedly left exchanges in February, retail wallet participation increased, and some of the largest holders continued accumulating despite unfavorable price conditions.

이러한 추세가 지속된다면 XRP는 새로운 매수 수요에 더욱 민감해질 수 있습니다. 즉시 이용 가능한 유동성이 상대적으로 제한적이라면 시장 심리가 개선될 때 가격 변동폭이 커질 수 있습니다.

하지만 공급 충격이 반드시 발생하는 것은 아닙니다. 기관 투자자 수요 부진, 기존 보유자의 지속적인 매도, 전반적인 암호화폐 시장 약세 또는 거래소 예치금 재개 등이 상승 시나리오를 약화시킬 수 있습니다.

투자자들은 거래소 유동성 감소와 유통량 감소를 구분해야 합니다. 개인 지갑으로 이체된 XRP는 유통량의 일부로 간주되며 언제든지 시장으로 다시 유입될 수 있습니다.

핵심은 에버노스가 XRP 소유권 및 거래 흐름에 잠재적으로 중요한 변화가 있음을 포착했을 뿐, 임박한 가격 급등을 확정한 것은 아니라는 점입니다. 이것이 진정한 공급 충격으로 이어질지는 유출입의 지속성, 대량 보유자의 행동, 그리고 가장 중요한 것은 새로운 수요가 가용 토큰을 흡수할 만큼 충분히 강한지에 달려 있습니다.