Key Takeaways

-SpaceX’s Q3 revenue rose 161% year on year to $14.58 billion, exceeding estimates of $12.7 billion–$12.9 billion.

-Adjusted EBITDA reached $8.81 billion, above expectations of around $6.6 billion.

-Super Intelligence contributed $7.56 billion, accounting for just over half of quarterly revenue.

-Q4 capital expenditure could reach $35 billion–$40 billion, placing investment returns in focus.

-Traders are watching resistance at $158.02 and initial support at $140.56.

SpaceX reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter results as rapid AI growth lifted revenue and helped the company post its first quarterly profit since listing.

Net income reached $4.40 billion, while adjusted EBITDA exceeded pre-earnings expectations. However, plans to accelerate infrastructure spending leave investors assessing whether future demand can justify the scale of investment.

Why Traders Are Watching SpaceX

SpaceX’s revenue mix shows how important AI has become to its growth outlook.

Super Intelligence generated $7.56 billion in quarterly revenue, followed by $5.25 billion from connectivity and $1.77 billion from space operations. All three segments exceeded the pre-earnings estimates used in the original analysis.

Starlink’s operating performance was more mixed. Subscribers increased to 13.6 million from 12.0 million in Q2, falling short of some forecasts. Monthly revenue per customer improved to $69 from $66, but remained below $83 a year earlier as the service expanded into lower-price markets.

Key factors influencing SPCX include:

-AI revenue growth: Customer adoption and demand for computing capacity will help determine whether recent momentum continues.

-Infrastructure spending: Q3 capital expenditure reached $19.59 billion, including $16.44 billion for AI, with a further increase indicated for Q4.

-Starlink performance: Subscriber growth and revenue per customer remain important measures of connectivity demand.

-Interest-rate expectations: Federal Reserve guidance could influence growth-stock valuations and financing conditions.

Key Trading Levels

The $158.02 level marks immediate resistance and the threshold buyers need to reclaim to strengthen the recovery. A sustained breakout, followed by a successful hold, could shift attention towards $172.63, the October high.

On the downside, $140.56 represents the first support level where buying interest may emerge. A break below this area could bring $131.34 into focus as the next downside reference.

If selling extends beneath $131.34, the deeper support level at $107.17 becomes relevant. Holding between $140.56 and $158.02 would leave shares within the consolidation range identified in the original analysis.

SpaceX Outlook: Can AI Growth Support Further Gains?

SpaceX’s next move will likely depend on whether confidence in AI growth outweighs concerns over rising infrastructure costs.

Continued customer adoption, stronger capacity utilisation and progress in monetisation could support confidence that higher spending will translate into sustained revenue growth. Further improvements in Starlink’s operating performance could also strengthen the outlook.

However, slower demand or weaker returns on investment could temper enthusiasm following the earnings beat. Investors will also monitor potential SpaceX–Tesla merger discussions, where no terms have been agreed, alongside the Federal Reserve’s 27–28 October meeting and broader sentiment towards AI infrastructure businesses.

For a deeper analysis of SpaceX’s earnings, technical levels and infrastructure investment outlook, read this article.