ATFX Market Outlook – 8th May 2026  

Markets Turn Cautious Ahead of U.S. NFP Report

(By ATFX Analyst Team) 

Summary 

·       U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire on Thursday, though Trump said the ceasefire agreement remains in effect. Investors are awaiting the latest progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks, while risk appetite has partly weakened.

·       Today’s focus: The U.S. will release the April nonfarm payrolls report tonight. Markets widely expect job growth to slow sharply from March, with nonfarm payrolls forecast to rise by only 62,000, down from the previous 178,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%. Although March’s NFP data far exceeded expectations, markets viewed it as partly driven by temporary distortions. The key focus of this report is whether the labor market is showing a real cooling trend, which could create room for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. It will also be a major short-term driver for financial markets.

Global Market Review 

U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, as Intel and other chip stocks pulled back after earlier gains, while uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran peace talks also weighed on the broader market. The Dow fell 0.63%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.38%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.13%. U.S. Treasury yields rose in volatile trading, while the dollar recovered early losses and remained firm against most major currencies as investors weighed hopes of easing tensions in Iran.

Gold was little changed late yesterday, as optimism over a possible U.S.-Iran peace agreement eased market concerns about inflation and interest rates staying higher for longer. Spot gold closed slightly lower by 0.08% at $4,685.18 per ounce. Oil prices ended higher in choppy trading after reports said the U.S. was considering restarting escort operations as early as this week to guide commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Events Today: 

08:30 JP Services & Composite PMI Final APR** 

20:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls APR ***

20:30 Canada Employment Report APR **  

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel MAY ***

Key Data and Events Coming Week:

Monday: China CPI & PPI YoY; US Existing Home Sales APR

Tuesday: BoJ Summary of Opinions; Germany CPI APR; Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index MAY; US CPI APR

Wednesday: API Weekly Crude Oil Stock; Eurozone GDP Q1 2nd Est; Eurozone Industrial Production MAR; US PPI APR; EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Thursday: UK GDP MAR; UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production MAR; US Retail Sales APR; US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday: Japan PPI APR; Japan Industrial Production MAR; US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index MAY; US Manufacturing & Industrial Production APR

EURUSD 

Resistance: 1.1774/1.1797
Support: 1.1677/1.1654

EURUSD stayed near 1.1748 as the dollar recovered from early weakness. US-Iran uncertainty and renewed risks in the Hormuz region limited risk appetite, as traders awaited US NFP data.

Analyst View: EURUSD momentum has cooled after the recent rebound. Buyers need to reclaim 1.1774–1.1797 to regain upside control; otherwise, the pair may continue rotating within the broader range.

Bias: Range-bound, awaiting breakout.

GBPUSD 

Resistance: 1.3580/1.3610
Support: 1.3485/1.3455

GBPUSD slipped 0.1% to 1.35785 as the dollar firmed. Market caution returned after Iran accused the US of violating the ceasefire, while NFP remains the next key driver.

Analyst View: GBPUSD is losing momentum near resistance, suggesting buyers are becoming cautious. A failure to break higher may keep the pair exposed to short-term pullbacks.

Bias: Cautious below 1.3580.

USDJPY

Resistance: 157.92/158.59
Support: 156.42/155.73

USDJPY rebounded to 156.79 after the yen’s intervention-driven strength faded. Markets remain cautious, but without further BoJ tightening signals, the yen's upside may remain limited.

Analyst View: USDJPY is attempting to stabilise following the sharp intervention-driven drop. Buyers are defending the lower range, but the 157.92–158.59 area remains a key ceiling where caution may return.

Bias: Cautiously bearish below 157.80.

US Crude Oil Futures (JUN) 

Resistance: 103.44/107.29
Support: 91.19/87.41

WTI rebounded above $97 after renewed US-Iran tensions and reports of strikes near Hormuz. Oil remains headline-driven, with supply risk returning after the earlier peace-driven selloff.

Analyst View: WTI is regaining short-term momentum as geopolitical risk premium returns. The rebound is still headline-sensitive, and the next key test sits at the $103.44–$107.29 resistance zone.

Bias: Range-bound, awaiting breakout.

Spot Gold (XAU/USD) 

Resistance: 4789/4835
Support: 4650/4592

Spot Silver 

Resistance: 83.03/84.44
Support: 78.37/76.93

Gold traded near $4,693.50 after retreating from a two-week high at $4,764.67. Renewed US-Iran tensions supported safe-haven demand, but resistance near $4,700 capped gains.

Analyst View: Gold remains supported by geopolitical risk, but the rejection of the near-$4,700 level suggests buyers are taking a more cautious stance. Price needs stronger momentum to challenge the $4,789–$4,835 resistance zone.

Bias: Cautiously bullish.

Dow Jones Futures  

Resistance: 50366/50936
Support: 49112/48561

The Dow fell 0.63% as US-Iran uncertainty weighed on sentiment. Chip stocks pulled back after recent gains, while investors stayed cautious ahead of the US jobs report.

Analyst View: The Dow is losing momentum near the upper end of its range, suggesting buyers are more cautious after the recent rebound. The 49,112–48,561 support zone remains important for maintaining the recovery structure.

Bias: High-level range trading.

NASDAQ 100 

Resistance: 28992/29484
Support: 28216/27824

NAS100 fell 0.13% as chip stocks cooled down after a strong rally, with Intel and AMD both down around 3%. NVIDIA and Microsoft gained, but broader tech sentiment turned cautious.

Analyst View: NAS100 still holds a strong uptrend structure, but momentum is cooling after the recent vertical rally. Buyers are defending the upper support area, though profit-taking risk remains near record highs.

Bias: Cautiously bullish.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 

Resistance: 80969/81920

Support: 77941/77005

Bitcoin fell below $80,000, settling at around $79,902 as renewed US-Iran tensions weakened risk sentiment. Strategy’s potential Bitcoin sales also pressured momentum, though upcoming US Bitcoin reserve updates may provide medium-term support.

Analyst View: Bitcoin lost momentum after rejection near the 80,969–81,920 resistance zone. Short-term sentiment has become more cautious, but the broader structure remains intact as long as buyers continue to defend the upper support area.

Bias: Pressure below $80,969.

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