Evernorth предупреждает о шоке предложения XRP, поскольку миллиарды пользователей покидают биржи.

Опасения по поводу предложения XRP вновь привлекли внимание после того, как Evernorth сообщила об оттоке миллиардов токенов с криптовалютных бирж, в то время как крупные держатели продолжали накапливать их. Эта тенденция может уменьшить количество XRP, доступных для торговли, потенциально повысив чувствительность цены в случае усиления спроса. Однако отток средств с бирж сам по себе не гарантирует немедленного шока предложения или устойчивого роста.

Evernorth указывает на потенциальный шок предложения XRP.

Компания Evernorth обратила внимание на существенное изменение динамики рынка XRP: на централизованных биржах может быть доступно меньше токенов, в то время как определенные группы инвесторов продолжают наращивать свои запасы.

В обновлении, опубликованном 22 апреля 2026 года, компания Evernorth, специализирующаяся на управлении казначейскими операциями с XRP, отметила существенный отток токенов с торговых платформ. Согласно данным, на которые ссылается Evernorth, в феврале с бирж было выведено около 7 миллиардов XRP, что стало крупнейшим месячным оттоком с ноября 2025 года.

Это событие примечательно тем, что произошло в период значительной слабости на рынке XRP. Вместо того чтобы просто следовать преобладающему ценовому тренду, некоторые инвесторы, по-видимому, выводили свои активы с бирж и готовились к долгосрочному владению.

Компания Evernorth выявила два события, происходящих одновременно:

Количество XRP, доступных для продажи на биржах, сократилось.

Число инвесторов, демонстрирующих долгосрочное владение активами, росло.

В совокупности эти тенденции могут создать условия для потенциального шока предложения, если рыночный спрос начнет восстанавливаться.

Компания Evernorth особенно важна для данного обсуждения, поскольку ее деятельность сосредоточена на накоплении и управлении XRP в качестве казначейского актива. Согласно документам, поданным в Комиссию по ценным бумагам и биржам США (SEC), компания завершила сделку по слиянию и поглощению в октябре 2026 года и торгуется на Nasdaq под тикером XRPN.

СЕК

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Однако аргумент о шоке предложения зависит не только от количества токенов, покидающих биржи. Инвесторам также необходимо учитывать, куда эти токены попадут, останутся ли они доступными через другие каналы и какой спрос способен поглотить оставшееся предложение.

Более 7 миллиардов XRP покинули криптовалютные биржи.

Наиболее поразительной цифрой в анализе Evernorth является зафиксированный отток 7 миллиардов XRP в феврале 2026 года.

Согласно данным CryptoQuant, о которых сообщалось ранее, общая сумма составила приблизительно 7,03 миллиарда XRP. Это было одно из крупнейших ежемесячных перемещений XRP с централизованных торговых платформ за этот период.

Binance accounted for the largest portion of the withdrawals, with approximately 3.38 billion XRP leaving its exchange wallets. Bybit recorded around 770 million XRP in outflows, while OKX saw approximately 395 million XRP move away from its platform.

These figures suggest that the movement was not limited to one exchange. Several major trading venues experienced substantial XRP withdrawals during the same month.

The distribution matters because centralized exchanges play an important role in providing immediate liquidity. Their wallets hold assets that customers can use for spot trading, while large changes in exchange balances can influence the amount of cryptocurrency readily accessible to buyers and sellers.

When investors transfer XRP away from exchanges, those tokens may move into private wallets, cold storage or other custody arrangements. Such movements can indicate that holders have less immediate interest in selling through centralized platforms.

Nevertheless, withdrawals should not automatically be interpreted as permanent reductions in selling pressure. Investors can transfer tokens between wallets, use alternative trading venues or return assets to exchanges whenever market conditions change.

The 7.03 billion XRP figure therefore represents an important flow signal rather than proof that the same amount has permanently disappeared from the market's available supply.

thecryptobasic.com

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Why Falling Exchange Balances Matter for XRP

Exchange balances are closely watched because they provide an indication of how much cryptocurrency is held within trading platforms.

When investors transfer assets to exchanges, those tokens become easier to sell through the platforms' trading systems. Large inflows can therefore indicate potential selling pressure, particularly when they occur alongside weakening prices or deteriorating market sentiment.

The opposite movement can have a different interpretation.

When substantial amounts of XRP leave exchanges, the immediately accessible supply may become smaller. If investors continue holding those tokens in private wallets rather than returning them to trading platforms, fewer coins may be available to meet sudden increases in buying demand.

This creates the conditions for a possible supply shock.

A simplified example illustrates the mechanism. If buyers suddenly seek to purchase a large amount of XRP while fewer tokens are available in exchange order books, sellers may demand higher prices before agreeing to sell. This could accelerate upward price movements, especially when liquidity is limited.

However, exchange balances represent only one part of the broader XRP market. Tokens held outside centralized exchanges are not necessarily unavailable for sale, and over-the-counter transactions can take place without immediately appearing in conventional exchange-flow indicators.

For this reason, the significance of Evernorth's observation depends on whether declining exchange availability continues alongside genuine accumulation and stronger market demand.

Retail Wallet Growth Adds Another Layer to the Supply Argument

Exchange withdrawals are not the only development supporting Evernorth's assessment. Wallet distribution data also points to growing participation among investors holding meaningful amounts of XRP.

According to Santiment data reported in April 2026, the number of wallets holding between 1,000 and 100,000 XRP reached approximately 1.1 million, a historical high at the time.

This group had added more than 77,000 wallets since October 2025. Its combined XRP holdings also increased from approximately 10.04 billion to 10.56 billion tokens, representing an accumulation of roughly 520 million XRP.

The increase is particularly interesting because it occurred while XRP was experiencing substantial price weakness.

Rather than indicating that every investor was becoming more optimistic, the data suggests that participation among this particular wallet category continued expanding despite unfavorable market conditions.

This distinction matters. A growing holder base, combined with significant exchange outflows, could indicate that a larger portion of XRP is moving toward investors who are less focused on immediate trading.

Whether this accumulation can translate into a meaningful reduction in available supply remains an important question for the next stage of the market.

Whale Accumulation Reveals a More Complicated Market Picture

Although retail wallet growth supports the supply-tightening argument, large XRP holders are not behaving uniformly.

According to the data highlighted in Evernorth's analysis, wallets holding between 100,000 and 10 million XRP reduced their combined positions by more than 3 billion tokens between October 2025 and April 2026.

In contrast, the largest whale group, holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP, accumulated more than 3.4 billion XRP over the same period.

This divergence suggests that XRP ownership is undergoing a redistribution rather than a straightforward accumulation trend across all investor categories.

The behavior of the largest holders is particularly important because their transactions can influence market liquidity. If these investors continue accumulating and keep their tokens outside exchanges, the amount of XRP immediately available for sale could become more constrained.

However, the selling activity among mid-sized holders shows that confidence is not universal. Some investors may still be reducing exposure, potentially offsetting part of the buying pressure from larger wallets.

For the supply-shock argument to strengthen, sustained accumulation among major holders would need to continue alongside declining exchange availability.

thecryptobasic.com

Why the XRP Supply Shock Argument Faces Some Challenges

Despite the encouraging signals, the reported exchange outflows should be interpreted carefully.

One concern raised by XRP community validator Vet is that CryptoQuant's exchange-balance tracking may not cover every relevant trading platform and wallet address. Incomplete exchange labeling can create an inaccurate picture of total XRP reserves.

Vet also challenged the interpretation that only a very small amount of XRP remains on exchanges, arguing that aggregate balances across trading platforms are substantially higher than some reports suggest.

This distinction is important because monthly outflows and total exchange balances measure different things. A large withdrawal during one month does not necessarily mean that the overall amount of XRP held by exchanges has fallen by the same amount.

Transfers between exchange wallets, internal wallet reorganizations and movements to newly identified addresses can also complicate on-chain analysis.

Consequently, Evernorth's observations provide evidence of changing investor behavior, but they do not independently establish that a market-wide supply shortage has developed.

thecryptobasic.com

What Could Trigger an XRP Supply Shock?

A genuine XRP supply shock would require more than continued withdrawals. It would likely involve several market conditions developing together.

Three indicators deserve particular attention.

1. Continued declines in exchange reserves

   If XRP balances fall consistently across major exchanges, rather than reflecting isolated wallet transfers, the argument for reduced immediately available supply becomes stronger. Consistent data across multiple analytics providers would also improve confidence in the trend.

2. Stronger spot market demand

   Reduced available supply becomes more significant when buyers are actively competing for tokens. Rising spot trading volume, improving liquidity and sustained net buying would help demonstrate that demand is absorbing the available XRP.

3. Continued accumulation by large holders

   If wallets holding substantial XRP balances continue increasing their positions, while exchange reserves decline, the market could become more sensitive to additional buying pressure.

Institutional participation could also influence this dynamic. However, treasury purchases, investment products and actual XRP network usage should be evaluated separately rather than treated as identical sources of demand.

The combination of these indicators would provide stronger evidence of a developing supply shock than exchange withdrawals alone.

XRP Price Outlook: Could Tightening Supply Support a Rally?

Evernorth's analysis presents a potentially constructive longer-term picture for XRP. Billions of tokens reportedly left exchanges in February, retail wallet participation increased, and some of the largest holders continued accumulating despite unfavorable price conditions.

Если эти тенденции сохранятся, XRP может стать более чувствительным к возобновлению спроса на покупку. Относительно ограниченный объем доступной ликвидности может усилить колебания цены при улучшении рыночных настроений.

Тем не менее, шок предложения не гарантирован. Слабый институциональный спрос, продолжающаяся распродажа со стороны существующих держателей, общая слабость криптовалютного рынка или возобновление депозитов на биржах могут подорвать бычий сценарий.

Инвесторам также следует различать снижение ликвидности биржи и снижение объема обращающихся криптовалют. XRP, переведенные в приватные кошельки, остаются частью обращающихся криптовалют и могут в любой момент вернуться на рынок.

Главный вывод заключается в том, что Evernorth выявила потенциально важное изменение в структуре владения XRP и потоках средств на биржах, а не подтвердила скорый прорыв цены. Перерастет ли это в настоящий шок предложения, будет зависеть от сохранения оттока средств, поведения крупных держателей и, что наиболее важно, от того, будет ли достаточно сильным новый спрос, чтобы поглотить имеющиеся токены.