U.S. Government Shutdown Countdown

Gold pauses after rally as U.S. economic uncertainty persists

Government shutdown end may bring clarity but also volatility

Profit-taking and ETF outflows cap further gains

Market rotation may pause gold’s rally but not reverse it

Source: Bloomberg

The progressive challenger seeking to oust Seattle's business-friendly mayor widened her slim lead as the final votes are tallied from the Nov. 4 election, but the race remains undecided and likely headed for a recount.

Katie Wilson is just 1,346 votes ahead of Mayor Bruce Harrell, with both campaigns calling on volunteers to help address problematic ballots by resolving questions around voter signatures. Each side has also assembled a legal team for any potential litigation.

That could mean weeks of uncertainty in the race to lead a city known both for its liberal politics and a culture of business innovation that has given rise to Amazon.com Inc., Starbucks Corp. and Nordstrom Inc.

The results are set to be certified by Nov. 25, and there will be an automatic recount through the county's tabulation equipment if the difference between the candidates is less than 2,000 votes and less than 0.5% of the votes received by both.

Meanwhile, the campaigns and election officials will continue working with voters this week to address any ballots that are flagged for review.

At the beginning of the year, Harrell looked all but certain to win reelection. But Wilson's campaign got a big boost when Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic primary in New York City's mayoral race, stirring confidence among West Coast progressives that their longshot candidate also had a chance to be successful.

Wilson, 43, campaigned on a pledge to raise taxes on big companies and wealthy individuals to provide more social services to help ease the city's affordability crisis. She cited wins by progressive candidates for city council and the city attorney's office as evidence of voter preferences, attributing the closeness of her own race to questions Harrell has raised about her lack of experience in public office.

"If you look at my platform and the vision that I put forward, there's a lot of overlap or common themes with the other progressives who prevailed this year in their races," Wilson said.

Harrell, 67, also struck a more populist tone in his campaign, but he has warned against measures that would hurt Seattle's competitiveness. He nodded to last week's elections in other parts of the country, where in many cases voter frustration with President Donald Trump helped Democrats outperform expectations.

"What I understand from Seattle voters is that it's very clear that they want a mayor that they could believe is a change agent because they are not happy with the direction that our country is going," Harrell said. "It's a close race, so we'll see who they choose. It's certainly not over yet."

Harrell campaigned on improved safety and downtown vitality since he was first elected in 2021. Some residents and business owners have expressed concern about a return to the left-leaning policies that some voters blame for contributing to pandemic-era crime and social unrest.

Wilson argued that she would do a better job of connecting people suffering from homelessness and addiction to services, making Seattle's streets cleaner and safer.

With a population of roughly 800,000, Seattle is a relatively small part of the larger Puget Sound region, which has about 4.5 million people and includes the headquarters of Microsoft Corp. and Costco Wholesale Corp., plus major Boeing Co. factories.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to host a private dinner at the White House on Wednesday with several top business executives, including the chief executives of Nasdaq and JPMorgan Chase, an administration official told Reuters.

The gathering underscores Trump's effort to deepen ties with corporate leaders as his administration rolls out new initiatives aimed at strengthening U.S. capital markets and rebuilding critical domestic supply chains seen as vital to national security.

JPMorgan, the nation's largest bank, has announced a decade-long, $1.5 trillion investment program aimed at industries central to U.S. national security and economic resilience, including supply chain and manufacturing, defense and aerospace, energy independence, and frontier technologies.

Under that plan, the bank will deploy up to $10 billion through direct equity and venture-capital investments specifically in U.S. companies critical to national security and economic resilience.

A White House official confirmed that Trump was meeting with financial leaders, but did not confirm a guest list.

CBS News was first to report the dinner.

Representatives for Nasdaq and JPMorgan did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Trump has held a series of private meetings with business leaders in recent months as his administration seeks to promote economic growth while navigating tensions with global trading partners.

His broader economic agenda centers on expanding domestic production, reshoring key industries, and leveraging private-sector investment to secure the United States' position in high-tech manufacturing and energy supply chains.

Source: Investing

Australian home loans surged beyond expectations in the third quarter to a record high, underscoring how easier monetary policy has reignited credit growth and property demand and giving the Reserve Bank another reason to stay on the sidelines.

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed new loans for home investors jumped 13.6% in the three months through September to the highest level since early 2022, lifting total residential loans to a record.

"Falling borrowing costs and low vacancy rates are favorable conditions for investors," Mish Tan, head of finance statistics at the ABS, said in a statement. "Strength of lending for investment also pushed the total value of all new dwelling loans to a record high in September."

Investor lending now makes up around 40% of new loans, the ABS said. Owner-occupier activity also strengthened, with both the number and value of new loans climbing over the quarter.

The data highlight how the RBA's three rate cuts this year have loosened financial conditions, even as inflation remains above target. That dynamic helps explain the central bank's decision this month to hold rates steady at 3.6% and its signal that an extended pause lies ahead.

RBA officials will keep a close eye on Thursday's employment report which is forecast to show unemployment dropped to 4.4% in October, from 4.5%, as the economy added more jobs.

Neighboring New Zealand is seeing a revival in property demand too with first-time buyers faring well in an environment where house prices and mortgage rates have both fallen.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

India's central bank is supporting the currency and bond markets as delays in reducing harsh US tariffs hurt local assets.

In recent days, the Reserve Bank of India has signaled unease with investors pushing for higher government debt yields, while data suggests it has bought about $2 billion of bonds to keep borrowing costs down. At the same time, it is estimated to have sold about $20 billion in dollars from its reserves to stop the rupee from sliding to new lows.

The RBI is trying to hold the line while Asia's third-biggest economy faces one of its toughest external shocks in years. Governor Sanjay Malhotra, who had mostly taken a hands-off stance since taking office in December, is signaling to investors that the central bank has drawn a red line, a point beyond which it won't allow the currency or yields to be pushed.

The RBI's actions could be "aimed at preventing the rupee from weakening to new levels because of an issue that could be resolved soon," A. Prasanna, chief economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd., said, referring to the ongoing trade talks. On bonds, "clearly there's concern from the government and the RBI" regarding high borrowing costs for longer-term debt, he said.

A RBI spokesperson didn't reply to an email seeking comment on the central bank's intervention strategy.

For India, the situation is clear: the rupee is Asia's second-weakest currency this year, bond markets are struggling with heavy government debt supply, and local stocks are lagging behind regional indexes which are hitting record highs. The strain has worsened as US tariffs — the highest in the region — choke exporters' earnings and curb dollar inflows.

A breakthrough on tariffs could turn things around. HSBC Holdings Plc estimates that lowering US duties to 20% from 50% could lift India's growth by half a percentage point — enough to spark a rally across asset classes, economists including Pranjul Bhandari wrote in a note. Societe Generale SA and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expect Indian assets to rebound next year as growth stabilizes and trade relations improve.

President Donald Trump this week said the US was getting "pretty close" to a trade deal with New Delhi, the latest sign of a possible thaw in the dispute that has soured the relationship between the two nations.

For now, the RBI's actions seem to be aimed at buying time until a pact is finalized, analysts said. The strategy is working. HSBC strategists say that the central bank's strong defense has improved the "risk-reward" for holding the rupee, while Barclays Plc calls the 89-to-the-dollar mark its "line in the sand." The local currency closed at 88.5675 on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the 10-year yield could drop below 6.40% if the authority were to cut rates next month to support the economy, ICICI Securities' Prasanna said. The yield ended at 6.48% on Tuesday.

Bloomberg Economics estimates that the central bank likely net sold over $20 billion during the two months to October in the spot market. The dollar sales crimped rupee liquidity just as loan growth was starting to recover, likely prompting the RBI to buy bonds in the secondary market and inject cash into the system.

A category called 'others' — which includes the RBI — bought 205.5 billion ($2.3 billion) rupees of bonds last week, the most since February 2021, according to data from Clearing Corp. of India compiled by Bloomberg. Official RBI data on its market activity is due this Friday.

Analysts at Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. and Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Ltd. expect the RBI to buy about one trillion rupees of bonds in the coming months. The central bank has used large debt purchases earlier this year to boost liquidity in the banking system.

"Banking system liquidity has also tightened from its peak," opening up room for the RBI to intervene via open-market purchases, said Aditya Bagree, head of markets at Citi India in Mumbai.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Payments firm BILL Holdingsis exploring a sale, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday, as it faces pressure from activist investors.

Shares of the company — which has a market capitalization of $4.66 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG — rose 14% in after-hours trading.

San Jose, California-based BILL is working with advisers on a potential sale, after concluding that its shares are undervalued in the public market, said the sources, who requested anonymity because the deliberations are confidential.

The talks are at an early stage, the sources said, adding that there is no guarantee of a deal.

BILL Holdings did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

The pressure on BILL began to mount publicly in September, when activist investor Starboard Value disclosed in a regulatory filing that it had amassed an 8.5% stake in the company. A week later, Reuters reported, citing sources, that Starboard nominated four candidates for BILL's board of directors, signaling its readiness for a proxy fight to force changes.

Around the same time, Reuters reported that Elliott Investment Management, another prominent activist firm known for pushing companies toward sales, had also built a large stake. Elliott was said to be advocating for BILL to pursue a sale, adding a second powerful voice calling for a strategic review of the business.

BILL Holdings provides cloud-based software that helps small and midsize businesses automate complex financial operations, such as managing accounts payable and receivable. The interest from activists suggests they believe the company's underlying technology and market position are not fully reflected in its public valuation, making it an attractive takeover target.

The company's revenue surged rapidly in its early years as a public company, climbing from just over $100 million to more than $600 million as annual growth topped 100% between 2019 and 2021.

Since 2022, its growth rate has cooled to the mid-teens as competition for small to medium-sized business customers has intensified.

Newer rivals such as Ramp, Brex, and Tipalti have crowded into the same market with broader, cheaper finance platforms, eroding BILL's momentum, according to analysts and company filings.

Source: TradingView