Trump Expands Critical Minerals List Amid Mixed Signals from Fed Officials

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Summary:

Hezbollah urges caution in Israel negotiations; Hammack: Case for further action not apparent...

[Quick Facts]

1. Hezbollah urges caution in Israel negotiations.

2. Trump administration adds copper, coal, silver to Critical Minerals List.

3. De Guindos: Eurozone growth outlook improves modestly.

4. Pelosi announces retirement from US Congress.

5. Vujcic: inflation target met, but economic risks remain.

6. Musalem: policy rate nearing neutral level.

7. Hammack: case for further action not apparent.

8. Miran: rate cuts to continue in December.

9. Goolsbee: exercise caution on rate cuts during government shutdown.

[News Details]

Hezbollah urges caution in Israel negotiations

Hezbollah in Lebanon issued an open letter on the 6th, urging Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam not to fall into the trap of negotiating with Israel. The group stated that such dialogues would only serve the interests of the enemy and pose an existential threat to Lebanon's sovereignty.

Trump administration adds copper, coal, silver to Critical Minerals List

The US has added uranium, copper, and silver to its government list of critical minerals, indicating that the Trump administration is expanding the scope of commodities it deems vital to the U.S. economy and national security. According to the government website, the updated U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) list also includes new additions such as metallurgical coal, potash, rhenium, silicon, and lead. This list will replace the 2022 version. It determines which commodities will be included in the Section 232 investigation launched by the Trump administration in mid-April into the processing of critical minerals and their derivatives—an investigation that could result in tariffs and trade restrictions. Trump has made enhancing domestic supplies of critical minerals a priority, citing that excessive reliance on foreign supplies endangers national security, infrastructure development, and technological innovation.

De Guindos: Eurozone growth outlook improves modestly

Luis de Guindos, Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB), stated in a speech on Thursday that the central bank's outlook for the euro area economy has turned slightly more optimistic, and positive signs of easing have emerged in some worrying inflationary sectors. The Spanish official noted that risks to economic growth have become more balanced, with positive news on the inflation front and much better performance in service price hikes. Growth has outperformed many expectations from a few quarters ago, as the euro area economy has demonstrated considerable resilience.

Pelosi announces retirement from US Congress

Nancy Pelosi, former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, announced that she will retire at the end of the current congressional term. The California Democrat is set to conclude one of the most influential legislative careers in U.S. history, officially embarking on a long farewell journey.

In a video address, Pelosi stated, "I want my fellow San Franciscans to be the first to know: I will not seek re-election to Congress. With a grateful heart, I look forward to my final year serving as your proud representative." Pelosi's congressional tenure will end on January 3, 2027.

Vujcic: inflation target met, but economic risks remain

Boris Vujcic, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, reaffirmed his view in a speech on Thursday that the current policy stance is in a good position. "Having brought inflation down to the ECB's target without triggering a recession, we believe we have accomplished our task. However, the outperformance of retail funds over hedge funds is a worrying signal. This is typically an indicator that something undesirable is on the horizon."

Musalem: policy rate nearing neutral level

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem stated in a speech on Thursday that the Fed must continue to exert downward pressure on inflation. He also warned that rates are approaching a level where they can no longer provide such pressure. "We must proceed with great caution and continue our efforts to curb inflation that remains above the target level. Current monetary policy is between slightly restrictive and neutral. In terms of financial conditions, it is moving closer to neutrality."

Hammack: case for further action not apparent

Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack stated on Thursday that persistently elevated inflation levels are not conducive to the Fed implementing another rate cut. She expressed concern that monetary policy may not be adequately prepared to address the current inflationary environment, and the rationale for taking further policy actions is not clear at present. The Fed continues to face inflationary pressures above its target, while the current monetary policy setting exerts virtually no restrictive effect on economic growth momentum.

Miran: rate cuts to continue in December

Fed Governor Stephen I. Miran stated on Thursday that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in December, noting that a 75 bps cut is unnecessary nor is it required to make up for the shortfall of previous rate cuts. "I aim to reach the neutral rate in 50 bps increments, but many of my colleagues prefer adjustments of 25 bps per step," he said.

Goolsbee: exercise caution on rate cuts during government shutdown

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated on Thursday that the absence of key inflation reports is a concern, especially against the backdrop of a recent uptick in headline inflation. "If there are issues with inflation, it will take us a considerable amount of time to detect them. However, if the labor market deteriorates, we will see changes almost immediately," he said.

This makes him more uneasy about "front-loaded" rate cuts, as such a move assumes that the inflation rise over the past three months is only temporary and presupposes that it will subside on its own.

"In the medium term, I am not a hawk on interest rate policy. I believe the ultimate destination of interest rates will be significantly lower than the current level. But when the external environment is shrouded in uncertainty, we had better be cautious and slow down our pace," Goolsbee added.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 16:00 New York Fed President John Williams Speech

UTC+8 20:00 Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel Speech

UTC+8 20:15 BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill Speech

UTC+8 21:30 Canada's October Employment Change

UTC+8 21:30 ECB Executive Board Member Frank Elderson Speech

TBD U.S. October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Economic Revival Plan: Stimulus in the Shadow of Inflation

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s first female leader and a staunch conservative, has taken office amid a challenging backdrop: inflation accelerated to 2.9% in September from 2.7% in August, while wages and domestic consumption remain stagnant. Although detailed plans are yet to be disclosed, Takaichi has directed her cabinet to prepare a comprehensive stimulus to ease the cost-of-living pressure.

The stimulus appears aimed at counteracting both structural economic stagnation and the short-term drag of inflation. Takaichi has long supported expansive fiscal policy, which paired with her preference for dovish monetary stance signals a continuation of fiscal-monetary coordination. However, she has clarified that the Bank of Japan will retain autonomy, particularly as it continues "normalizing" from its ultra-loose policy stance.

Investors seem optimistic about her pro-growth vision. Japanese equity markets have reached record highs since her appointment, reflecting expectations of fiscal largesse. But structural constraints including a shrinking workforce and demographic pressures could limit the long-term efficacy of stimulus without deeper reforms.

Rising Prices, Shrinking Patience: Political Stakes of Inflation

Takaichi’s predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, was unseated after only a year, partly due to the electorate’s frustration with rising living costs. Voters now expect swift and effective relief. The current inflation trend while modest by global standards carries significant weight in Japan, a country long accustomed to deflation or near-zero inflation.

This presents a complex trade-off: too little stimulus risks political fallout, while too much could undermine the BoJ’s tightening trajectory and weaken the yen. Takaichi’s balancing act will be closely watched by both households and markets.

Defense Expansion and U.S. Alignment Under Trump

Takaichi’s first policy address also emphasized defense. Japan will allocate 2% of its GDP to military spending this fiscal year meeting its 2027 target two years early. This comes as former President Donald Trump, now again in office, prepares to visit Tokyo. Takaichi promises to elevate U.S.-Japan relations “to new heights” and reaffirm alliance commitments in the face of growing Chinese and North Korean military assertiveness.

Her comments reflect a strategic recalibration amid shifting global power dynamics. China, for its part, has condemned Japan’s increased military budget and relaxed arms export restrictions, framing them as evidence Japan may be drifting from its pacifist commitments.

Immigration: Tighter Controls, More Workers?

Although Takaichi acknowledges Japan’s labor shortages, her stance on immigration is hardening. She drew a clear line between accepting foreign workers and addressing public “unease” over rule violations. While stopping short of xenophobic rhetoric, she framed non-compliance by some foreigners as justification for tighter enforcement a position that resonates with rising support for the anti-immigrant Sanseito party.

Notably, she appointed Kimi Onoda as minister in charge of building “harmonious coexistence with foreign nationals,” reviving a previously unfilled role. However, misinformation has already spread online, wrongly portraying the appointment as linked to mass deportations highlighting how volatile immigration discourse remains in Japan.

Geopolitical and Domestic Crossroads

Takaichi’s leadership signals a pivot to a more assertive, ideologically-driven policy platform. Her embrace of higher defense spending, fiscal expansion, and stricter immigration oversight positions her as a break from her technocratic predecessors. Yet the road ahead is fraught with risks: any misstep in handling inflation, U.S.-China relations, or immigration could erode her current popularity.

Still enjoying high approval ratings, Takaichi is moving fast to imprint her leadership style. If her planned stimulus delivers tangible relief without sparking currency or bond market instability, she may succeed in stabilizing Japan’s fragile post-pandemic recovery while redefining the country’s role in an increasingly multipolar world.

Source: Reuters

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Samantha Luan

Forex

China–U.S. Trade War

Economic

China's exports unexpectedly slumped in October as overseas orders tapered off following months of front-loading to beat President Donald Trump's tariffs, and as buyers watched to see how a volatile month in U.S.-China trade ties would play out.

Outbound shipments from China shrank 1.1% last month, the worst performance ‌since February, customs data showed on Friday, reversing from a 8.3% rise in September, and missing a forecast for 3.0% growth in a Reuters ‌poll.

The figure was affected by a high base from last October when exports grew at their fastest pace in over two years, as factories began rushing inventory to major markets in anticipation of Trump's triumphant return to the White House.

Imports also expanded at a much slower 1.0% pace, compared to 7.4% growth in September and a 3.2% forecast rise.

Early indicators showed the economy had lost some momentum last month. ⁠The official purchasing managers' index fell to a ‌six-month low and suggested that the wider world had taken in all the Chinese goods it could for now, with factory owners reporting a marked drop in new export orders.

Tensions between China and the U.S. ‍unexpectedly spiked in early October, after Trump threatened 100% levies on Chinese goods in response to Beijing dramatically expanding its export controls on rare earth metals.

The mood eased after Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week in South Korea, when both sides agreed to extend their trade truce - previously scheduled to expire on November 10 - for another year.

Still, U.S.-bound Chinese goods will face an average tariff rate ‌around 45%, above the 35% level that some economists say wipes out Chinese manufacturers' profit margins.

Economists estimate the loss of the U.S. market has cut export growth by around 2 percentage points, or roughly 0.3% of GDP.

China has sought to diversify its export markets this year to offset the blow from Trump's tariff onslaught, though exporters report they are often selling to other parts of the world with thinner margins to defend market share.

Adding to the pressure on manufacturers, the country's swelling trade surpluses with ⁠other countries have sparked protectionist pushback, amid concerns that its cheaply priced goods could flood overseas markets.

In response, China announced an initiative this week to increase its imports which aims to make the country "the best export destination" and "open up win-win cooperation".

Premier Li Qiang, addressing the China International Import Expo in Shanghai on Wednesday, said the economy will exceed 170 ‍trillion yuan ($23.87 trillion)⁠ by 2030, up from 140 trillion yuan projected for 2025.

Insufficient domestic demand remains a hurdle, however.

Officials said last month China will aim to raise the percentage of household consumption of GDP "significantly" over the next five years, after a key ⁠conclave of the ruling Communist Party's Central Committee mapped out economic and policy goals for 2026-2030.

China's trade surplus came in at $90.07 billion in October,‌ from $90.45 billion a month prior, and missing a forecast of $95.6 billion.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Justin

Forex

Economic

Good morning, this is Alex Gabriel Simon, an equities reporter in Mumbai. November is proving tough for Indian equities, with key benchmarks on track for a second straight week of losses. The downbeat mood mirrors weakness across Asia, as regional markets track overnight declines on Wall Street, where stocks slumped amid worries over stretched AI valuations and a cooling labor market. The pullback in Indian shares follows last month's rally that brought the Nifty index within a whisker of its record high from September last year. With the earnings season drawing to a close, traders are now watching for a thaw in India—US relations after President Donald Trump said he would visit India at the urging of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Reliance Jio's IPO journey gains pace

It's been a long wait for Reliance Industries investors looking for value unlocks through public listings of the oil-to-retail giant's various units. So, news that investment bankers are proposing a valuation of as much as $170 billion for its telecom arm, Jio, should be music to their ears — especially since Mukesh Ambani first spoke of a potential IPO back in 2019. The planned share sale would mark Reliance's first public offering of a major business unit since Reliance Petroleum's debut in 2006. At the proposed valuation, Jio would rank among India's two or three largest companies by market value.

SBI-Amundi unit plans IPO as sector in focus

Staying with the IPO story, the stock market's lacklustre performance this year has not dulled the excitement in the money management industry. New foreign players are seeking entry, while steady domestic flows show retail investors' confidence and patience in India's growth story. Banking on that optimism is SBI Funds Management, India's top fund house, which plans to sell about 10% of its holding through an IPO. Currently, SBI holds 61.91% and Amundi owns 36.36%. The sentiment around the offering could be a litmus test for broader market confidence and expectation of continuing flows into local mutual funds amid rising competition.

Quick-commerce discounts rise, margins shrink

While fund managers rush to cash in on investor enthusiasm, a different competition is playing out in India's quick commerce scene. A mystery shopping survey by Jefferies found rising discounts across most product categories, with Amazon Now offering the juiciest deals, followed by DMart Ready and Swiggy MaxxSaver. Interestingly, market leader Blinkit did not have the lowest price on any item in Jefferies' sample basket. The findings show how India's quick commerce race is getting tougher, as platforms chase users and market share instead of profits.

Just when it seemed that bulls would take the Nifty 50 index to a record high, bears have managed to claw back some ground. The gauge has slipped more than 2% from its October peak, falling in four of its last five sessions. Technical analysts see some relief around the corner as the 100-day moving average and a falling trendline could provide support for the index. While global risk-off cues have weighed on sentiment, bulls are betting that the final leg of the results season might yet offer a silver lining in what's shaping up to be a rough November for stocks.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Gerik

Stocks

Economic

Tech Workers Hit Hard as Layoffs Soar to 22-Year October High

October 2025 marked the worst month for U.S. layoffs in any October since 2003, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Total job cuts reached 153,074 up 183% from September and 175% year-on-year. The tech sector bore the brunt, with 33,281 positions eliminated, highlighting a stark reversal from the hiring boom of recent years.

This spike reflects a causal link between the sector's over-expansion during pandemic-era growth and the current recalibration amid economic uncertainty, tighter monetary policy, and investor scrutiny on profitability. Ironically, some of the very technologies driving automation and cost-cutting have rendered parts of the tech workforce redundant.

Nasdaq Plunges as Valuation Fears Resurface

The broader market echoed these concerns. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.9% on Thursday, leading U.S. market declines. Even companies reporting strong earnings, like Qualcomm, weren’t spared: its shares slid 3.6% despite beating expectations and raising guidance, reflecting investor fear that valuations may be stretched.

Other prominent names like Microsoft, Broadcom, and Palantir also suffered losses, as sentiment turned cautious. Nvidia, which had briefly touched a $5 trillion market cap, slipped back to $4.57 trillion. The pattern reveals a recurring market behavior strong results offer little insulation when investor sentiment rotates away from high-growth, high-valuation names.

This correction indicates a correlation rather than a causation: broader macro concerns, not company-specific issues, are prompting sell-offs in top-performing tech names.

Musk's Sky-High Pay Package Approved Despite Market Turmoil

While most tech workers are facing heightened job insecurity, Elon Musk’s fortunes are heading in the opposite direction. Tesla shareholders approved a performance-based pay plan potentially worth nearly $1 trillion, which would raise his ownership stake from 13% to 25% provided Tesla achieves a staggering $8.5 trillion valuation.

With Tesla’s market cap currently at $1.54 trillion, the target appears distant. Yet, the approval of such an aggressive compensation package signals investor belief in Musk’s long-term vision, despite recent volatility. It also reinforces a striking divergence in tech: executive windfalls amid frontline layoffs.

Trump Administration Rules Out Federal AI Bailouts

Adding to the industry’s shifting landscape, U.S. President Donald Trump’s AI and crypto policy lead, David Sacks, declared there would be no federal bailout for AI startups. The comment came in response to OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar’s call for a government backstop for AI firms facing high infrastructure costs.

This marks a clear policy stance: the administration expects the private sector to absorb the risks and costs of AI development, even amid rising concerns over monopolization, compute scarcity, and ethical risks. For investors and smaller AI startups, the lack of a federal safety net increases exposure in an already capital-intensive race.

Gulf States Double Down on AI as Oil Revenue Shrinks

In contrast to U.S. caution, Gulf nations are channeling sovereign wealth into domestic AI ecosystems. With oil revenues under pressure, countries like Saudi Arabia are diversifying via trillion-dollar bets on artificial intelligence, building research clusters and sovereign-backed ventures. This reflects a causal transition from commodity-led growth to tech-centric reinvention and underscores the intensifying global AI arms race.

October’s turbulence reveals a tech industry undergoing painful realignment. Investor caution, labor market contractions, and shifting government policies point to a more restrained growth cycle ahead. While visionary executives like Musk secure long-horizon rewards, most of the industry must now grapple with valuation resets, funding constraints, and geopolitical reshuffling of capital. The era of unchecked tech expansion may be giving way to one defined by efficiency, resilience, and recalibration.

Source: CNBC

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Gerik

Economic

Spending Rises, But Below Forecast Amid Sectoral Weakness

Japan’s household consumption climbed for the fifth straight month in September, providing a modest boost to domestic demand. Adjusted for inflation, spending rose by 1.8% year-on-year, largely driven by transportation and entertainment. However, the figure fell short of economists’ expectations for a 2.5% rise, as declining expenditures on housing and education weighed on the overall number.

The increase offers limited relief to Japan’s broader economy, which is forecast to have contracted in Q3 2025 following five consecutive quarters of growth. Falling exports and sluggish housing starts attributed to recent regulatory shifts have compounded the economic drag.

Inflation Persists, Wages Struggle to Keep Up

Although nominal wages have risen in recent months, real wages (adjusted for inflation) have declined for every month through September. This persistent erosion of purchasing power undercuts the sustainability of the spending recovery, despite recent bonuses and wage adjustments supporting working households in the short term.

The headline inflation rate has remained at or above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for over three years. A key price gauge picked up again in September, indicating that inflationary pressures remain entrenched. Analysts warn that if real incomes continue to decline, household resilience will weaken posing risks to consumption-driven recovery.

New Government Moves to Cushion Inflation Pain

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who took office recently, has responded by ordering an economic support package aimed at alleviating inflation’s impact on households. The plan includes subsidies for winter gas and electricity bills, along with regional grants to ease living costs. Her administration and ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) have also agreed to implement a gasoline tax cut before the end of the year.

Notably, Takaichi has ruled out further direct cash handouts, distancing herself from pre-election promises made by the LDP. Instead, her policy stance favors targeted subsidies and broader price-relief measures over blanket fiscal giveaways.

Her commitment to continued monetary easing coupled with no overt demands on the BOJ has reinforced expectations that rate hikes may be delayed. This contributes to ongoing yen weakness, which traded near an eight-month low against the U.S. dollar, adding to import-driven inflation risks.

Policy Challenges Persist as GDP Report Looms

The upcoming GDP release on November 17 is expected to confirm a contraction in the July–September quarter, adding urgency to policy responses. Economists point out that the recent uptick in consumption is partly a statistical base effect, reflecting weak performance in the same period last year.

Spending on services is recovering, but food and daily necessities remain under pressure especially for lower-income households. Norinchukin Research Institute’s chief economist Takeshi Minami noted that while consumption has held up, it is unlikely to register strongly in Q3 GDP due to these sector-specific constraints.

Minami also cautioned that the BOJ cannot yet claim the supply-demand gap is narrowing, as inflation is still being driven more by cost-push factors (including currency depreciation) than domestic demand strength.

Japan’s steady but underwhelming household spending growth underscores a fragile recovery. While working households have supported consumption through higher wages, persistent inflation, falling real incomes, and sectoral imbalances suggest that the rebound is not yet robust. With fiscal and monetary policy walking a tightrope, the coming GDP report will offer clearer signals on whether Japan’s economy is entering a pause or a downturn.

Source: Bloomberg

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Justin

Political

Economic

French officials recently divulged that their upcoming supercarrier will sport even greater enhancements than initially outlined. The future Porte-avions de nouvelle génération will enter service with the French Navy by the late 2030s and is set to replace the European nation's Charles de Gaulle carrier.

France's Porte-avions de Nouvelle Supercarrier

News surrounding France's new warship endeavor is significant, especially considering France is the only nation other than the United States that operates a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. Over the summer, a French Navy official revealed renderings of what the new supercarrier's air wing could achieve. At the Combined Naval Event, conducted under Chatham House rules, three images were displayed. They depicted the existing Rafale M multirole fighter and the E-2D Hawkeye airborne early warning and control aircraft, positioned on the flight deck next to rotary-wing drones. While the unmanned aerial vehicles appear to be the Airbus Helicopters VSR700 in the renderings, these drones may serve as a representation for upcoming autonomous platforms.

France's enhancements to its Porte-avions do not end with the incorporation of highly specialized support drones as part of its air wing. French officials also detailed last month their plans to procure a third Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) catapult track from the United States. According to the 2026 draft budget document released in October, "funding for the third catapult track and the data-centric upgrade of the Combat Management System (CMS) in its incremental development approach is provided under the additional funding requested by the President of the Republic during his speech on July 13, 2025." As French president Emmanuel Macron spelled out, "To be free in this world, we need to be feared." The supercarrier with EMALS would certainly contribute to this goal. Specifically, the EMALS combined with the new Advanced Arresting Gear (AAG) will enable the French carrier to launch more on the Charles de Gaulle.

How Does Porte-avions de Nouvelle Compare to the Ford-class?

While the Porte-avions de nouvelle is expected to play a leading role in carrier power projection capabilities across the globe, the supercarrier will not represent the only "next-gen" warship in service. The US Navy already fields the USS Gerald R. Ford, the lead ship of its newest Ford-class of aircraft carriers. Equipped with technologies and capabilities that make it more efficient than its Nimitz predecessor, the Ford carriers are truly top-notch. Perhaps most significantly, these warships will feature EMALS and AAGs, which will allow them to launch 25 percent more sorties than previous classes. Additionally, the Ford carriers are able to generate triple the amount of electrical power as the Nimitz ships due to their cutting-edge Bechtel A1B reactor. USS Ford has already been deployed to the United States Central Command area of operations and is currently transiting the Caribbean Sea as part of the Trump administration's anti-drug trafficking strategy.

While France's upcoming supercarrier will undoubtedly be top-of-the-line, the US Navy is planning to introduce an additional nine Ford-class ships over the next decade, and for this reason, it will have an edge over its Western ally.