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The Prime Minister of Lebanon said that a ceasefire deal with Israel would be reached within days; the UK's government raised taxes by £40 billion in the new budget plan.
Bitcoin came within a hair’s breadth of an all-time high on Tuesday night, but the overall crypto market is well off its peak. Total cryptocurrency capitalisation at the overnight peak was $2.46 trillion, down $2.48 trillion from the July peak, almost 12% below the March high of $2.77 trillion and around $400 billion below the all-time high reached in November 2021. While the big picture points to a series of lower peaks, the medium-term uptrend since early September still suggests that new highs are a matter of months away. And the acceleration we saw last week suggests it’s a matter of weeks, not months.
Bitcoin has been the main driver, gaining momentum since Saturday. Trading near $72.4K, Bitcoin does not appear to be extremely overheated, leaving room for further strength.
The market seems to be pricing in Trump’s victory and the easing of regulations on cryptocurrencies. The euphoria is particularly evident in Doge, which has gained another 6% in one day, 24% in seven days and over 41% in the last 30 days. The coin has no direct benefit from Trump’s rise to power, but speculators are warming to it because of frequent mentions of Musk, who may get a position in Trump’s government.
Bitget Research notes that several factors support BTC’s potential growth, including the expected Fed rate cut on 7 November. Market dynamics could also be influenced by the Microsoft board’s vote on the Bitcoin investment scheduled for 10 December.
According to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, demand for Bitcoin will rise sharply because of the Chinese stimulus. He believes that the injection of money into the economy and the threat of further inflation will lead to increased investment in risky assets.
The annualised yield on Steak, the second most capitalised cryptocurrency, has fallen to ~3%. Kaiko noted that Ether’s steak yield is now lower than that of other major tier 1 protocols, including Cosmos, Polkadot, Celestia, and Solana, which range from 7% to 21%.
Zeta Markets noted that Ethereum’s limitations are forcing users, applications, and capital to turn to L2 networks and competing blockchains such as Solana as demand for faster and more scalable solutions grows.
The U.S. economy expanded by 2.8% quarter-on-quarter (q/q, annualized) in the third quarter, a touch lower than the consensus forecast of 3.0%.
Consumer spending accelerated at its fastest pace since the first quarter of 2023, rising 3.7% q/q. The gain was driven by a sharp rise in goods spending (+6.0% q/q), while spending on services grew by 2.6%.
Business investment rose 3.3% q/q, thanks to another strong quarterly gain in equipment spending (+11.1% q/q). Meanwhile, spending on structures fell by 4.0% q/q, while investment in intellectual property products was relatively flat – up just 0.7% q/q – for the second quarter in a row.
Residential investment (-5.1% q/q) remained a drag on Q3 growth, as both home sales and homebuilding came under further pressure alongside still elevated interest rates.
Government spending rose 5.0% q/q – its strongest quarterly gain in a year – largely stemming from an outsized gain in federal defense outlays (+14.9% q/q). State & local government spending (+2.3% q/q) was also higher last quarter.
On international trade, both imports (+11.2% q/q) and exports (+8.9% q/q) notched sizeable gains, but a larger increase in the former resulted in net trade subtracting 0.6 pp from GDP. Inventory investment (-0.2 pp) was also a small net drag on growth last quarter.
Final domestic demand was up a healthy 3.5% q/q, an acceleration from Q2’s gain 2.8% q/q.
Core PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – slowed to 2.2% q/q (annualized), a notable deceleration from Q2’s 2.8%.
Another solid quarter for the U.S. economy, with underlying domestic demand pushing well above 3% and accounting for all of last quarter’s growth. Beyond the housing market, there are very few signs that elevated interest rates are exerting any meaningful drag on domestic activity.
That said, economic growth is likely to round out the year on a softer note, as a further cooling in the labor market leads to some moderation in consumer spending. Equipment investment also looks poised for some giveback after two consecutive quarters of very healthy gains, while Q3’s gain in federal defense spending is unlikely to repeated in Q4. We also can’t forget that fourth quarter growth is likely to see some distortions stemming from hurricane’s Helene and Milton, which have likely displaced some near-term activity across parts of the Southeast. However, history shows that the clean-up and rebuilding efforts that occur following a natural disaster tend to more than offset any lost output.
Bigger picture, the U.S. economy still looks poised to achieve a soft landing. Economic growth is expected to steady closer to 2% in 2025, while inflation is quickly closing in on the Fed’s 2% target. This should allow the FOMC to continue gradually reducing its policy rate over the next year, and potentially have it return to closer to its long-run neutral rate of 3% by Q4-2025.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is anticipated to maintain its existing interest rates during the policy meeting on October 31. This decision reflects Governor Kazuo Ueda’s prudent strategy, highlighting the necessity to evaluate risks, especially those associated with the US economy and fluctuating markets. The Bank of Japan earlier terminated its negative interest rate policy in March and elevated its short-term policy target to 0.25% in July. Nonetheless, with inflation consistently near 2% and no imminent indications of escalation, the BoJ is not hastening to execute any rate increases.
The Bank of Japan’s quarterly report, which will feature updated GDP and inflation projections, is expected to offer insights into the timing of forthcoming interest rate increases. Analysts anticipate that the BoJ will emphasize risks, including sluggish global growth and market volatility, which may reduce the probability of a year-end rate increase. The post-meeting briefing by Governor Ueda will be scrutinized for indications concerning the speed and timing of forthcoming interest rate increases.
As of September, Japan’s annual inflation rate is 2.5%, a decrease from 3.0% in the preceding month. This signifies the lowest inflation rate since April. The decline is ascribed to subdued rises in electricity and gas prices, together with tempered expenses for food, furnishings, transportation, and cultural activities.
Japan’s inflation rate has been comparatively low in relation to other G7 nations, attributable in part to government-imposed price controls, an elderly demographic, and negative interest rates. These elements have contributed to maintaining inflation stability amid global economic pressures.
The general election held on October 27, caused a notable transformation in Japan’s political landscape. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s governing coalition lost its majority in the lower chamber for the first time in 15 years. This loss has generated political uncertainty, hindering attempts to retract monetary stimulus. The election outcomes have compelled the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to pursue coalitions with minor opposition parties to establish a government.
The economic forecast for Japan in 2025 is cautiously hopeful, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates a small recovery fueled by growing real earnings and heightened consumption. Notwithstanding obstacles including supply chain interruptions and a waning influx from tourism, economic growth is anticipated. Important factors influencing this outlook include the anticipated increase in wages, which will boost household purchasing power and domestic demand, as well as the Bank of Japan’s likely continuation of policy normalization, potentially leading to further interest rate hikes. Although headline inflation is anticipated to decelerate, core inflation may continue to be bolstered by increased wage growth. Moreover, political stability will be crucial, as prospective leadership changes may influence economic policies and investor confidence. Japan is shifting from stagnation to modest growth, helped by structural reforms and policy modifications.
If the BoJ sustains its current interest rates, as anticipated, the yen may not experience substantial immediate fluctuations. Any indications of impending rate increases may bolster the yen as investors foresee enhanced profits on yen-denominated assets. The yen has lost more than 10% versus the dollar over the last one-and-a-half months.
The dollar/yen is holding slightly beneath the three-month high of 153.90 with strong resistance near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 161.94 to 139.60 at 153.40. More gains could lead the market toward the 155.20 bar. Otherwise, a move south may drive the market toward the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 151.50.
Since there are no signs of raising interest rates any time soon, the yen will likely keep falling against the dollar. However, if the yen’s value continues to decline, officials are likely to hike interest rates sooner rather than later.
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