US Manufacturing Surveys Mixed In October; Prices Down, Production Up

Economic

Summary:

"...lift the hood and the picture is not so healthy."

Amid the month-long vacuum of macro data, thanks to the shutdown, 'soft' survey data has become almost the only leg left standing to judge the economy by (absent the housing data).

Following better-than-expected prints across Europe, and beats in Brazil and Canada, this morning's S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose more than expected to 52.5 (52.2 exp), up from 52.0 - tracking hard data higher.

That signaled a third successive month that the S&P Global PMI has posted above the critical 50.0 no-change mark and indicative of a solid improvement in operating conditions that was in line with the survey's trend pace.

The PMI was supported in October by concurrent and accelerated gains in both output and new orders.

Production was increased at a solid pace, whilst the gain in new orders was the best recorded in 20 months. Growth in new work has been registered consistently throughout the year to date, albeit to varying degrees, and panelists noted in October an uplift in market demand and success in securing new contracts. However, October's growth was increasingly reliant on the domestic market as new export orders faltered.

BUT...

...as usual in the baffle 'em with bullshit world, ISM's US Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, falling from 49.1 to 48.7 (worse than the 49.5 exp) - the 8th straight month of contraction (below 50)

Source: Bloomberg

"US manufacturers reported a solid start to the fourth quarter with production rising at an increased rate in response to an encouragingly robust jump in new orders," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"However, lift the hood and the picture is not so healthy."

"Most worrying is the unprecedented rise in unsold stock reported in October, widely linked to weaker than anticipated sales to customers, especially in export markets, which could trigger a downshifting of production in the coming months unless demand revives.

Indeed, ISM shows prices falling fast and new orders and employment improving MoM (though both below 50 - contracting).

The index of prices paid for raw materials fell 3.9 points to 58, the lowest since the start of the year. Since a recent peak in April, during the height of the tariffs rollout, the price gauge has dropped nearly 12 points...

Source: Bloomberg

Companies have also become less optimistic about the year ahead, with sentiment back down close to the gloomy levels seen around the April tariff announcements.

"US trade policy uncertainties are again a big factor in dampening business spirits, with tariff policies being increasingly blamed both on rising export losses and import supply chain disruptions.

These export and import worries are being exacerbated by more domestically focused political concerns, including the federal shutdown, which are manifesting themselves most prominently in consumer-focused industries."

Tariffs remained a key source of higher input costs during October with S&P Global's latest data showing another round of historically elevated inflation – albeit the lowest since February.

Selling prices were raised markedly in response, and to a quicker degree than September's recent low.

Finally, Williamson notes that business confidence among producers of consumer goods is now down to its lowest for two years "as firms growing increasingly worried about household spending in the US and falling sales to consumers in export markets."

Source: Zero Hedge

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Justin

Political

President Donald Trump is set to host Syria's self-appointed interim leader later this month for talks in Washington, marking the first ever visit by a Syrian head of state to the US capitol. Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who once fought alongside foreign fighters while killing American soldiers in Iraq, will enjoy his red carpet reception in Washington on November 10.

This will also mark the first time a former ISIS member will be hosted in the Oval Office, an absurdity which would have been hard to believe a mere decade ago. But the US-Saudi-Israel axis reached its regime change goal in Damascus, which overthrew the secular Arab nationalist leader Bashar al-Assad, which resulted in the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) taking over.

The HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who was even earlier this year still on the US terrorism list, quickly reverted to his birth name of Ahmed al-Sharaa. The US had promptly removed the $10 million bounty on his head just before President Trump met with him in Riyadh last May.

"President Ahmed al-Sharaa will be at the White House at the start of November," Syria's foreign minister said in speech in Bahrain. "Of course, this is a historic visit. It is the first visit by a Syrian president to the White House in more than 80 years."

"There will be many issues on the table, starting with the lifting of sanctions and opening of a new chapter between the United States and Syria. We want to establish a very strong partnership between the two countries."

One area of proposed cooperation is in fighting terrorism, ironically enough, and the US and Syria under Jolani are expected to sign an agreement joining a US-led international coalition against ISIS during the visit, which is somewhat laughable given ISIS patches have recently been seen among HTS ranks.

Despite attempts to distance his group from extremist organizations, the United States still designated his new group a terror organization and targeted members of HTS who once fought for Al Qaeda, proving his rebranding attempts a failure.

And NBC too underscored Jolani's ISIS pedigree soon after he ousted Assad in December 2024:

Born in Syria in 1982, he joined other foreign fighters in Iraq after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, and was detained by the American military, according to The Associated Press.

When Syria's vicious civil war erupted in 2011, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), sent Jolani to Syria to establish the Al-Nusra Front, a branch of Al Qaeda.

Their conflict escalated two years later. Jolani rejected Baghdadi's calls to dissolve the Nusra Front and merge it with ISI to form ISIS. Instead, he pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda, which later disassociated itself from ISIS. The Nusra Front then became Al Qaeda's Syria affiliate and later battled ISIS for supremacy in the battle against Assad.

His aforementioned ruling Islamist faction HTS has since taking control in Damascus been conducting sectarian attacks on ethno-religious minorities in Syria. Thousands of Alawites, Druze, and Christians have been killed and/or driven from their homes.

All the while, Sharraa has sought to claim before international cameras that he'll ensure equality for non-Muslims as well as women, but the actions of his HTS gangs are the opposite.

Source: Zero Hedge

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Adam

Commodity

Gold ended lower for the second consecutive week and has made a cautious start to this week’s action. Prices have been stuck around the $4,000 area in the last few trading days, hurt by a dollar recovery and loss of prior momentum.

The key question now is whether we have already seen a top or if this two-week drop is merely a blip. Much will depend on whether we will see continued central bank buying and the direction of the US dollar. But the weakness was long overdue, and in that regard, it is no surprise.

Gold’s Loss of Momentum

Over the past couple of weeks, the bearish momentum on gold has been evident following the reversal from those historic, extremely overbought levels. Some key levels have since been taken out, including most importantly, that psychological $4,000 mark.

While the initial breakdown below this level triggered a wave of technical selling and liquidation of long positions, the fact that prices have since recovered to climb back above here - albeit without any further upside yet – is mildly positive.

The key question is whether more losses will be on the way or whether prices will form a base around the $4K level now. The de-escalation in the US–China trade war is clearly a negative outcome for gold, while signs that inflation is slowing is also a reason why traders have been taking profit on their long positions.

The fact that the Fed chair said a rate cut in December is not a forgone conclusion that too is also a mildly negative influence on gold prices. The fact that global indices have recently hit new all-time highs, this too has also taken some shine off safe-haven assets like gold.

China’s Gold Buying Cools, but Demand Persists

Much of the strong Q3 central bank buying was driven by heightened geopolitical tensions, high inflationary pressures, and uncertainty around global trade policy, all of which fuelled appetite for safe-haven assets like gold. Some central banks like the PBOC, also wanted to diversify away from US debt.

While demand for gold has been clearly strong, the elevated prices we have seen consistently throughout this year might be a limiting factor for further central bank purchases.

Indeed, there was an apparent slowdown in Chinese gold imports recently. Last week’s data from Hong Kong showed that September’s net exports to China fell 17.6% month-on-month, signalling softer demand from the People’s Bank of China. However, with imports still above 22 tonnes, this moderation may suggest that the PBOC feels these high prices might have gotten too high, too quickly, rather than a fundamental shift in China’s reserve strategy.

One month’s data is hardly conclusive, and with official PBoC figures due in the next week or so, markets will soon have a clearer view of the central bank’s intentions.

Can Gold Make a Base Around $4K Handle?

Technically, the long-term chart of gold is still bullish. So, despite the recent drop, I’d wait to see what happens next before calling a top here, as betting against this rally has not worked well over the past year or so. If prices can hold above $4,000 for a while, that would be a strong bullish signal, suggesting the long-term uptrend remains intact.

But if gold struggles here and starts to head find itself more into the negative side of $4000, then it’s fair to say a short-term top might be in place, and we could see further selling until prices look attractive again… or until risk sentiment turns, and investors start looking for safety.

Gold: 2-Week Slide Tests Market’s Faith in This Critical Support Zone_1

Some key short-term resistance levels to watch include $4045, then the underside of the broken trend line at around $4,100.

In terms of support below $4,000, well, the $3,970 level is the initial support, then last week’s low of $3,886 comes into play next. Below that, there are no obvious support levels apart from round handles like $3,800, $3,700, etc., until we potentially get all the way down to the April high of $3,500, now the most important long-term support.

Source : investing

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Daniel Carter

Economic

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index eased 0.4 point to 48.7, according to data released Monday. Readings below 50 indicate contraction, and the measure has been stuck in a narrow range for most of this year.

The group's production index slid 2.8 points to 48.2, marking the second month in the last three that output has contracted. The weakness is keeping headcounts depressed. The ISM's employment gauge shrank for a ninth straight month, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in September.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures continued to ease. The index of prices paid for raw materials fell 3.9 points to 58, the lowest since the start of the year. Since a recent peak in April, during the height of the tariffs rollout, the price gauge has dropped nearly 12 points.

Economists and policymakers are relying more on private reports such as the ISM survey for clues on the economy and job market in the absence of official data because of the US government shutdown. Friday's scheduled employment report is also poised to be delayed as a result.

A dozen manufacturing industries contracted in October, led by textiles, apparel and furniture. Six industries, including primary metals and transportation equipment, reported growth.

The survey illustrates general malaise among the nation's manufacturers who are contending with lingering uncertainty around trade policy. Producers are navigating evolving supply chains as they source materials. The ISM measure of supplier deliveries rose to a four-month high, indicating longer lead times.

Bookings shrank for a second month in October, though at a slower pace, the ISM report showed. Order backlogs, another indicator of demand, also contracted.

Inventories at manufacturers shrank by the most in a year. Customers' stockpiles also remained low, suggesting some scope for orders to pick up and support production.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Adam

Economic

What happened last week

US-China diplomatic breakthrough yields temporary reprieve: Trump and Xi reached an accord in Busan, halving fentanyl-related tariffs to bring effective rates on Chinese imports to 47%. China committed to postponing rare earth mineral export restrictions for one year while pledging to procure US agricultural products. Equity markets remained muted given the arrangement's temporary nature.

Strategic APAC partnerships: President Trump conducted bilateral meetings with Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi and South Korean President Lee, consolidating trade frameworks. The US formalised a rare earth supply agreement with Japan and finalised South Korea's $350 billion US investment plan.

Central bank policy trajectories diverge: The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 25 basis points but signalled December uncertainty, with market expectations for further easing declining from 90% to 70%. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held rates steady, requiring additional time to assess the 15% US tariff impact and preliminary momentum from forthcoming wage negotiations. The European Central Bank (ECB) similarly held unchanged, noting diminished downside risks in the economy.

Chinese manufacturing activity contracts further: The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) registered 49.0, marking six consecutive contractionary months. The National Bureau of Statistics attributed this decline to Golden Week holiday disruptions and elevated global economic uncertainty. The non-manufacturing PMI improved marginally to 50.1, barely entering expansionary territory.

Markets in focus

US equities continue the winning streak

The S&P 500 index concluded October with gains of 2.3%, marking the sixth consecutive month of positive returns. The technology-concentrated Nasdaq 100 advanced 4.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average appreciated 2.5%. Despite this broad-based positive performance, concerning indicators of diminishing market breadth have emerged. The proportion of S&P 500 constituents trading above their 20-day moving average (MA) contracted from 62% at the previous Monday's close to merely 39%. A similar decline occurred at the 200-day MA level, suggesting that recent gains have been increasingly concentrated amongst a narrow cohort of market leaders.

Earnings season has progressed substantially, with 63% of S&P 500 constituents having reported. The blended earnings growth rate stands at 13.8% so far, surpassing the second quarter's 12% growth trajectory. Five members of the Magnificent Seven cohort released results during the week. Alphabet shares appreciated 2% following revenue of $102 billion that exceeded analyst estimates, propelled by robust cloud infrastructure growth of 34%. Microsoft similarly beat both earnings and revenue projections with Azure expanding 40%, though shares declined 4% as investors focused on accelerating capital expenditure growth. Meta plunged 14% despite surpassing revenue forecasts, after disclosing a $15.9 billion one-time tax charge that resulted in an earnings per share miss alongside upward revisions to capital expenditure guidance. Apple and Amazon both exceeded expectations in Thursday trading, with Apple shares unchanged as strong iPhone 17 demand offset revenue contraction in China, while Amazon surged 10% as AWS cloud business accelerated to 20% growth – the fastest pace since 2022.

From a technical analytical perspective, beyond the deterioration in market breadth, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the US Tech 100 exhibits bearish divergence characteristics, with lower peaks forming while prices continue establishing record highs. Both indicators suggest weakening bullish momentum. Nevertheless, the index retains potential to reach 26,830, representing a 50% extension of Wave 1 to 3 within the Elliott Wave framework. The 20-day MA near 25,200 should provide downside support.

Figure 1: US Tech 100 index (daily) price chart

Hang Seng Index consolidates on profit-taking

Following an approximate 40% appreciation since start of the year, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) terminated its five-month winning sequence, retreating 3.5% in October to close marginally below 26,000.

The highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit in Busan failed to catalyse sustained market enthusiasm, as the agreement's substance had been largely priced into valuations. In fact, 'sell the news' dynamics emerged as investors sought to crystallise substantial year-to-date gains ahead of year-end settlement. We view the deal as constructive, noting the one-year truce duration substantially exceeds the three-month extensions of previous negotiations. Furthermore, the expeditious de-escalation observed in recent discussions reflects Beijing's proactive approach to resolving external challenges as China continues to grapple with persistent structural headwinds within its domestic economy.

Sector rotation dynamics intensified as market participants secured profits from growth-oriented equities, particularly within biotechnology and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors, while reallocating capital towards equities aligned with the 'valuation system with China characteristics' framework – typically denoting undervalued state-owned enterprises offering attractive dividend yields. Energy and Financials sectors led HSI gains during October, while Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services sectors underperformed.

The HSI's inability to maintain positions above its 20-day MA demonstrates insufficient upward momentum. Should the index decline further, triggering a death cross formation between the 20-day and 50-day MA, near-term directional characteristics would likely mirror corrective Wave C within Elliott Wave theory. This downward leg's magnitude would minimally equal corrective Wave A, targeting approximately 24,316. Conversely, swift recovery above the 50-day MA may re-establish the ascending channel pattern established since mid-April, with the recent peak of 27,382 representing key resistance.

Figure 2: Hang Seng Index (daily) price chart

Nikkei 225 posts best monthly performance since 1990

The Nikkei 225 index surged above 50,000 and delivered exceptional returns of 16.6% throughout October, its strongest monthly performance since October 1990. Multiple catalysts underpinned this rally: confirmation of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, perceived as supportive of fiscal expansion and accommodative monetary policy; renewed US-Japan strategic partnership; robust corporate earnings; and yen weakness benefiting exporters.

Information Technology emerged as October's best-performing sector, while Financials and Real Estate detracted. Japanese corporations capitalised on AI infrastructure demand, with Hitachi reporting 56% net income growth driven by power grid infrastructure and digital transformation demand. Tokyo Electron raised full-year guidance, benefiting from semiconductor equipment market recovery. The forthcoming week proves critical as automotive exporters Toyota and Honda release earnings alongside technology investor SoftBank.

On balance, markets may insufficiently account for political risks, as PM Takaichi's policy effectiveness could be constrained by the Liberal Democratic Party's declining public support, while domestic consumption remains weak amid negative real wage growth.

Exuberant market sentiment propelled the Japan 225 index beyond its ascending channel established since April, leaving no clearly defined technical resistance. However, the RSI reading of 76 indicates overbought conditions. All seven previous instances when the RSI exceeded 70 preceded pullbacks, though correction magnitudes varied between 2% and 8%. Given the rally's steep trajectory, a technical correction towards the 20-day MA near 49,000 appears probable before the advance resumes.

Figure 3: Japan 225 index (daily) price chart

The week ahead

The forthcoming week centres on critical central bank policy decisions and labour market assessments. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) confronts a complex policy decision on Tuesday. Australia's third quarter trimmed mean inflation accelerated to 3.0% year-on-year (YoY) from 2.7% in the second quarter. Education and housing costs represented primary inflation drivers. Concurrently, the unemployment rate elevated to 4.5% in September, the highest reading since November 2021, complicating the central bank's assessment. Governor Bullock's recent commentary emphasised the institution's reluctance to rely upon isolated data spikes when calibrating policy. Markets anticipate rates holding at 3.6%, with attention concentrated on guidance regarding potential easing timing.

Thursday's Bank of England (BoE) decision carries equivalent significance as policymakers evaluate whether inflation remains sufficiently controlled to justify additional rate reductions from the current 4% level maintained since August. Bond futures markets price a 70% probability of unchanged rates.

Official US employment data release remains uncertain owing to the government shutdown potentially delaying Friday's non-farm payrolls report. However, Wednesday's ADP employment change should provide valuable insights into labour market conditions. Latest weekly data reveals improvement following September's concerning negative 32,000 reading.

China's inflation statistics on Sunday will prove particularly significant following the recent Fourth Plenum's identification of 'involution' – excessive competition driving deflationary pressures – as a priority concern. We anticipate consumer prices may have improved from September's negative 0.3% YoY contraction, though persistent producer price deflation suggests structural challenges persist. Sustained improvement would bolster risk appetite in Chinese and Hong Kong markets.

On the corporate front, technology earnings dominate, with semiconductor leaders Advanced Micro Devices and Qualcomm alongside software providers Palantir and AppLovin reporting results. Their commentary regarding artificial intelligence infrastructure demand, enterprise and government spending will prove critical for technology sector sentiment. Japanese automotive manufacturers Toyota Motor and Honda Motor will provide perspectives on global export conditions.

Figure 4: Australia's latest unemployment and inflation data complicate RBA's decision

Source:ig

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Adam

Stocks

US markets remain positive despite ongoing economic and political uncertainties. The S&P 500 marked a new record high last week at the 6,920 level and is consolidating above the 6,750 support level. However, the consolidation following the bullish chart patterns comes with growing concerns that Donald Trump’s trade policies could challenge the rally beneath the surface.

Supreme Court to Decide Fate of Trump’s Tariff Powers

The Supreme Court will hear arguments this week about Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose global tariffs. The case could define whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) can be used as a long-term tariff tool. While lower courts have rejected this approach, some believe the conservative majority on the bench could reverse that ruling. A decision in Trump’s favour would expand executive authority and lock in a more aggressive trade stance.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is highly sensitive to global trade dynamics. Tariffs increase input costs for companies, disrupt supply chains, and affect forward guidance. Moreover, technology, industrials, and consumer goods sectors face the most exposure. If Trump’s authority to impose broad tariffs is upheld, investor confidence may start to shift. Markets could then begin to price in higher operational risks for multinational firms.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar is rebounding from its key support level at 96. Strong resistance remains at 100.50, and a break above this level would maintain a positive trend.

Trump Trade War: Can the S&P 500 Rally Survive Legal and Policy Risks?_1

Gold is consolidating above $4,000, while energy prices remain firm as OPEC+ signaled a pause in production increases, adding to inflation concerns. All of this feeds into S&P 500 valuations, which are sensitive to earnings expectations and monetary policy signals.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Bullish Structure Holds

The 4-hour chart for the S&P 500 shows that the index has been trading within an ascending channel pattern. It has found strong support at the 6,550 level, which triggered a sharp rebound. The key resistance level remains at 7,100. However, a break below 6,550 would invalidate the ascending channel and could lead to a deeper correction.

Trump Trade War: Can the S&P 500 Rally Survive Legal and Policy Risks?_2

The daily chart for the S&P 500 shows a strong bullish structure in 2025. This structure is supported by the formation of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, with the head formed in April 2025. The index broke above the 6,000 level in June 2025, confirming the pattern. After the breakout, it has been trading in a positive trend and shows no apparent signs of a correction.

Trump Trade War: Can the S&P 500 Rally Survive Legal and Policy Risks?_3

Final Thoughts

In short, the Trump trade war remains a wildcard. A favourable court ruling could lead to broader use of tariffs, putting pressure on corporate earnings and weighing on the S&P 500’s outlook. The market is riding a wave of optimism, but legal and political risks could quickly shift the tone.

On the other hand, the S&P 500 remains in a strong bullish structure, supported by technical patterns and recent market momentum. Short-term charts indicate that key support levels are holding, while long-term charts confirm an upward trend with no immediate signs of weakness. This supports the idea that investor sentiment remains intact despite policy risks.

Source: fxempire

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Justin

Central Bank

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said on Monday it is wrong to put too much emphasis on the strength of equity and corporate credit markets in assessing monetary policy that he feels remains too restrictive and is heightening the risk of a downturn.

"Financial markets are driven by a lot of things, not just monetary policy," Miran said on the Bloomberg Surveillance television program, in explaining why he dissented last week against a quarter-percentage-point rate cut in favor of a half-percentage-point reduction.Rising equity prices, narrow corporate credit spreads, and other factors don't "necessarily tell you anything about the stance of monetary policy" at a moment when interest-sensitive sectors like housing are less buoyant and some parts of the private credit market appear under stress.

Miran's remarks highlight the competing views that Fed officials have begun to offer about the state of the economy and the risks facing it since last week's divided decision to reduce the U.S. central bank's benchmark policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 3.75%-4.00% range.

The 10-2 policy vote marked only the third time since 1990 that voting Fed members have objected in favor of both tighter and looser monetary policy, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at his post-meeting press conference indicated an even deeper divide as he noted the "strongly differing views about how to proceed" at the central bank's December 9-10 meeting.

It was an unusual reference to action at an upcoming meeting, with Powell emphasizing that another rate cut "is not a foregone conclusion - far from it."

SCHMID LAYS OUT CASE FOR KEEPING MORE FOCUS ON INFLATION

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, who dissented in favor of no rate cut last week, laid out on Friday the case for keeping more of a focus on inflation that remains above the central bank's 2% target, including the fact that "financial markets appear to be easy across many metrics. Equity markets are near record highs, corporate bond spreads are very narrow, and high-yield bond issuance is high. None of this suggests that financial conditions are particularly tight or that the stance of policy is restrictive."

Asked specifically about the arguments cited by Schmid, a career banker, Miran said it overlooked stress that may be developing elsewhere in the financial system and the sluggishness in the housing market.

In addition, repeating arguments he has laid out since joining the Fed while on leave as a top economic adviser to President Donald Trump, Miran said the economy has been buffeted by population changes and other shocks since last year that have lowered underlying interest rates and mean "that policy has passively tightened" despite the Fed's rate cuts. He said he continues to think the Fed should cut in half-percentage-point increments until hitting a "neutral" level he estimates is "quite a ways below" where it is now.

Other U.S. central bank officials are due to continue the debate later on Monday, including in an appearance at the Brookings Institution by Fed Governor Lisa Cook, her first since Trump attempted to fire her earlier this year in an action so far blocked by federal judges but awaiting an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.