Trump's 'Donroe Doctrine' Puts Canada on Edge

For the first time since the 19th century, Canada is forced to consider the United States a potential military threat. Long-settled assumptions about North American security have been upended by President Donald Trump’s recent actions and his assertive claims of U.S. dominance over the Western Hemisphere.

The U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and ominous hints about seizing Greenland "the hard way" have rattled Ottawa. These moves followed months of Trump calling for Canada to become the "51st state" early in his second term—rhetoric that fueled Mark Carney’s victory in Canada's federal election last March. While Trump later tempered his comments in the second half of 2025, a new sense of unease about his territorial ambitions has taken hold.

A New Era of American Power

In November, the U.S. National Security Strategy designated control of the Western Hemisphere as a top priority. While the document didn't mention Canada, suggesting to some that Ottawa was no longer a primary target, subsequent actions told a different story. The U.S. began assembling a naval force in the Caribbean and destroying speedboats in international waters, claiming they belonged to "narco-terrorists"—actions legal experts decried as violations of international law.

Ottawa’s response was muted. When the U.S. attacked Venezuela and captured Maduro on January 3, Prime Minister Carney issued a vague call for "all parties to respect international law." This caution is understandable, given that Canada's economy remains deeply intertwined with the U.S. Even with tariffs, 67% of Canadian exports went to the United States in October 2025.

The 'Donroe Doctrine' Takes Shape

Two recent developments have sharpened Canadian concerns. First, Trump's renewed threats toward Greenland hit close to home. His rationale—Greenland's rich resources and strategic Arctic location—applies equally to Canada.

Second, the principles of Trump's hemispheric policy, which he calls the "Donroe Doctrine," have become clearer. He claims it has already "superseded" the original Monroe Doctrine "by a lot," and his boast has merit. The 19th-century Monroe Doctrine aimed to prevent European colonization in the Americas. President Theodore Roosevelt later reinterpreted it to justify the U.S. acting as the hemisphere's sole "international police power."

Trump's version goes much further. It appears to assert an American right to intervene anywhere in the Americas for nearly any reason, explicitly unconstrained by international law. This doctrine is not about policing or denying access to other powers; it is openly avaricious, arbitrary, and imperial.

While Trump has long criticized "endless wars," it would be foolish to dismiss his threats. He has denied contemplating military force against Canada, but recent events have sown doubt. As former Canadian UN ambassador Bob Rae warned, "We are next on the menu." It is no longer inconceivable that Trump might demand access to Canadian Arctic waters or that his allies could interfere in Canada's domestic politics. He has also been explicit about using "economic force" to absorb Canada into the U.S.

Carney’s Strategy: Diversify and Defend

Prime Minister Carney has declared an end to the "decades-long process of an ever-closer economic relationship" between the two nations. His government's strategy is twofold: reduce long-term exposure to U.S. tariffs through trade diversification while protecting whatever market access remains.

Renewing the Canada–US–Mexico trade agreement, up for review this year, is pivotal. The deal provides tariff-free access for many Canadian products, but its fate is uncertain. Existing U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and automobiles have already weighed heavily on the economy.

Seeking New Global Partners

This isn't Canada's first attempt at trade diversification. Pierre Elliot Trudeau pursued a similar strategy in the 1970s, but today's urgency is far greater. This explains Carney's visit to Beijing this week—the first by a Canadian leader since 2017.

Under his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, high-level engagement with China was frozen after Beijing detained two Canadians in apparent retaliation for Canada's 2018 arrest of a Huawei executive at the U.S.'s request. Frictions remain, including Canada’s 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles from 2024 and China’s retaliatory tariffs on Canadian agricultural products. Despite these disputes, Carney hopes to expand bilateral trade, though he has established "guardrails" to limit cooperation in areas deemed national security risks.

Carney has also moved to thaw relations with other key players:

• India: High-level dialogue has been restored after Justin Trudeau accused the Indian government of involvement in the 2023 murder of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Relations warmed after Carney invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the G7 summit last summer, and talks on a free trade agreement resumed in late 2025.

• Europe: Canada is deepening economic ties, notably by partnering in the EU's Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program, a €150 billion fund for defense spending.

• South Korea: A new pact aims to expand collaboration on defense procurement, industrial security, and research.

These moves support Carney's ambitious goal of doubling Canada’s non-US trade by 2035. However, even if successful, the country will remain heavily dependent on the U.S. market.

Canada Revives Old Survival Skills

For now, Ottawa hopes Trump's focus will shift away from Greenland and that his continental ambitions will cool. In the meantime, Canada is highlighting its long-standing role as a partner in defending North America, including the Arctic.

However, a U.S. move against Greenland would trigger a seismic shock in Ottawa. The Canadian public would likely demand a much stronger response, putting Carney—who was elected on a platform of resisting U.S. pressure—in a difficult position. While Canada would almost certainly align rhetorically with Denmark and its European allies, there would be little it or the rest of NATO could do to counter U.S. military action directly.

For much of its history, Canada's leaders skillfully managed a complex relationship with their more powerful neighbor, defusing disputes and working with like-minded American partners. Today, faced with unprecedented pressure, Canada has little choice but to reinvigorate those old survival skills.