Trump Administration Says it has Trade Frameworks With Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala

Political

Economic

Summary:

The White House also released statements on the frameworks, which have yet to be finalized and are expected to be signed within roughly two weeks.

The Trump administration said Thursday that it had reached trade frameworks with Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala.

The frameworks are about increasing the ability of U.S. firms to sell industrial and agricultural products in these countries, according to a senior administration official who insisted on anonymity as a condition for briefing reporters on a call about the agreements.

The White House also released statements on the frameworks, which have yet to be finalized and are expected to be signed within roughly two weeks. It's all part of a broader effort by President Donald Trump to rewrite the rules of global commerce through the use of broad tariffs.

President Javier Milei of Argentina hailed his country’s first bilateral trade framework with the U.S. in nearly a decade as “tremendous news.”

“As you can see, we are strongly committed to making Argentina great again,” he said.

The frameworks touch on an array of subjects, including efforts to reduce nontariff barriers and cut tariffs to 0% on American-made goods as well as commitments to not impose digital services taxes on U.S. companies. There would also be tariff relief on select products from these countries. For example, import licenses in these countries would be eliminated and streamlined, while nations would agree to resolve issues on intellectual property rights.

Under the tariffs previously announced at the end of July by Trump, goods imported from Argentina, El Salvador and Guatemala are taxed at 10%, as the U.S. runs a trade surplus with each of those countries. Products from Ecuador, with which America runs a trade deficit, are taxed at 15%.

Guatemala President Bernardo Arévalo called the framework “good news” and said his country would be in a position to attract new investments.

He said that 70% of the products Guatemala exports to the U.S. will face zero tariffs under the framework, as exclusions are granted for goods the U.S. is unable to make. All other goods would still be subject to the 10% tariff.

The U.S. senior administration official said that tariffs in these nations could be reduced on coffee, cocoa and bananas.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trump have each suggested that the tariffs are being relaxed as affordability issues are a key concern for U.S. voters.

Source: AP

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

James Whitman

Political

The Trump administration rescinded restrictions on oil drilling in Alaska's mammoth state petroleum reserve, reversing a move by former President Joe Biden that put an estimated 8.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil off limits.

The policy reversal finalized Thursday applies to the 23 million-acre National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.

Biden in 2024, designated 13 million acres of the reserve as "special areas," limiting future oil and gas leasing, while maintaining leasing prohibitions on 10.6 million acres of the NPR-A. The move complicated future oil drilling and production in the reserve, where ConocoPhillips is pushing to explore for more oil near its Willow project. Other active companies have included Santos Ltd., Repsol SA and Armstrong Oil & Gas Inc.

The US Interior Department had already reopened the nearby Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas leasing, following a directive Donald Trump issued after his inauguration. Increasing US production of fossil fuels has been at the center of Trump's energy agenda, starting with an early executive order compelling a host of policy changes meant to expand Alaska's oil, natural gas and mineral development.

"This action restores common-sense management and ensures responsible development benefits both Alaska and the nation," Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a statement, adding that the latest move would "strengthen American Energy Dominance and reduce reliance on foreign oil."

Alaska has forecast that crude production from the reserve will climb to 139,600 barrels per day in fiscal 2033, up from 15,800 barrels per day in fiscal 2023.

The Interior Department announced last month it was opening the entire coastal plain of Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, some 1.56 million acres, to oil and gas leasing and planned to hold a lease sale this winter in the state petroleum reserve.

Source: Bloomberg

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Forex

Central Bank

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said he didn’t support the US central bank’s last interest-rate cut, though he’s still undecided on the best course of action for its December policy meeting.

“The anecdotal evidence and the data we got just implied to me underlying resilience in economic activity, more than I had expected,” Kashkari said Thursday in an interview with Bloomberg News. That, he said, argued for a pause to rate cuts at the Fed’s October meeting.

Since then, available data have suggested “more of the same” for the economy, Kashkari said. For the upcoming Dec. 9-10 rate decision, “I can make a case depending on how the data goes to cut, I can make a case to hold, and we’ll have to see.”

With his remarks, Kashkari joins a slew of Fed officials who have in recent days expressed skepticism over the need for another cut in December, or outright opposed one. It remains unclear whether they can persuade enough voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, given a number of policymakers are still more worried about weakness in the labor market.

The Minneapolis Fed chief doesn’t hold a vote on rate decisions this year but participates in FOMC deliberations.

Financial markets have taken note of the volume of comments coming recently from the Fed’s so-called inflation hawks. Investors have marked down the odds of a rate cut in December to about 50%, based on federal funds futures contracts. Before the Fed’s October meeting, those odds were around 100%.

Divided Data

After the September decision, when the central bank cut rates for the first time this year, Kashkari said he was anticipating two more reductions in 2025. He said Thursday he believed the economy was slowing more meaningfully at the time.

“There are a lot of headlines about low-income borrowers — sub-prime borrowers, sub-prime companies that serve sub-prime markets — getting into trouble, so it seems like there’s real pockets of weakness in the labor market,” he said. “At the same time, a lot of corporate earnings are doing fine, and a lot of corporations are very optimistic about 2026.”

Kashkari is not alone in wanting to see more data before making a decision about the Fed’s last meeting of the year. Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, earlier Thursday also expressed uncertainty about what to do at the gathering.

“It’s premature to say definitely ‘no cut,’ or ‘definitely a cut,’” Daly said at an event in Dublin, adding that the direction of change in policy appeared “neutral.”

But others have staked out a preference for the last meeting of the year, and a growing number of officials are advocating for holding rates steady.

Hawkish Wing

Susan Collins, who heads the Boston Fed, said Wednesday rates should stay at their current level for “some time” to strike a balance between inflation, which at 3% is still above the Fed’s 2% target, and weaker hiring in the labor market. She said still-strong growth could slow or stall progress on cooling price pressures.

Other officials that had in the past been more enthusiastic about cutting rates, including the Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee, have expressed similar sentiments in recent weeks. They’re joining the Fed’s more hawkish wing, which includes policymakers like the Kansas City Fed’s Jeff Schmid, Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed and the Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan, all of whom have warned against cutting rates again.

Meanwhile, Governors Stephen Miran, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have argued for cuts. Miran, the newest Fed official — appointed by President Donald Trump earlier this year — said inflation has come in better than expected, supporting the case for lower rates.

Fed officials will get a fresh glimpse into the state of the US economy once government agencies resume publishing official statistics now that the shutdown has ended. It’s unclear, however, how much new data will be available in time for the Fed’s December gathering.

Source: Bloomberg

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Stocks

Economic

Wall Street indexes suffered their biggest one-day decline in a month on Thursday, pushing down MSCI's global equities gauge while U.S. Treasury yields rose as investor bets for a December rate cut took a dive after hawkish comments by Federal Reserve officials.

In currencies, the dollar fell despite the prospects for slower rate cuts, in the first trading day after the House of Representatives voted late on Wednesday to reopen the U.S. government from its longest shutdown in history and President Donald Trump signed the bill.

Investors had been pouring into equities in recent sessions in anticipation of an end to the shutdown, which disrupted food benefits for millions, left hundreds of thousands of federal workers unpaid, and snarled air traffic while putting a pause on crucial economic data releases.

However, Trump administration officials dashed hopes for a clearer view of the U.S. economy any time soon. The White House indicated that the U.S. unemployment rate for October may never be available, since it is dependent on a household survey that was not conducted during the shutdown.

And pointing to worries about high inflation after two U.S. interest rate cuts this year, a growing number of signaled caution about further rate cuts.

Alberto Musalem, who runs the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank, reiterated his view that there was limited room to ease further without becoming overly accommodative. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said interest rate policy should remain restrictive in order to put downward pressure on still concerning levels of inflation.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said inflation was too high while parts of the labor market "look like they're under pressure." Earlier, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said the risks to the Fed's two goals are now balanced after two rate cuts already this year.

Trader bets for a December rate cut were last showing a 51.9% probability, down from 62.9% on Wednesday, according to CME Group's FedWatch, opens new tab tool.

"Markets were counting on a cut, and we may not get it," said Bob Doll, chief executive and chief investment officer at Crossmark, pointing to cautious Fed comments on the prospects for a December easing of rates. "Most of them are putting up warning signs that it's not a 'gimme', just like the Fed Chair told us when he did this presser after the last Fed meeting. In some sense, it's not new, but people didn't believe it."

Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise, said investors are looking at high valuations in heavyweight technology and artificial intelligence-linked stocks, adding to their worries about a continued lack of clarity around the U.S. economy. So, he said, it was not surprising to "see investors take a step back from risk, sell down the winners and go into the defensive areas of the market."

EQUITIES MARK BIGGEST DROP IN A MONTH

On Wall Street, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), opens new tab led losses, closing down 536.10 points, or 2.29%, at 22,870.36. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), opens new tab fell 797.60 points, or 1.65%, to 47,457.22, while the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab fell 113.43 points, or 1.66%, to 6,737.49. All three indexes registered their biggest daily declines since October 10.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS), opens new tab was down 12.07 points, or 1.19%, at 999.71, which would also be its biggest daily drop since October 10.

Earlier in the day, the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX), opens new tab index closed down 0.61% while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3), opens new tab finished off 0.66%. Both had hit record highs during their trading day.

In U.S. Treasuries, prices retreated, driving yields higher, as investors scaled back expectations for imminent rate cuts amid lingering uncertainty over the inflation outlook and stark divisions among Fed policymakers on the trajectory of the U.S. economy and monetary policy.

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 4.4 basis points to 4.123%, from 4.079% late on Wednesday while the 30-year bond yield rose 5.4 basis points to 4.7162%. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 3.1 basis points to 3.597%.

DOLLAR FALLS AGAINST EURO, YEN

In currencies, the U.S. dollar dipped as the government reopened, leaving traders grappling with the long-term impact of the shutdown on trust in the U.S. currency while investors waited for data on the health of the economy.

Meanwhile, European financial stability officials were debating whether to create an alternative to Federal Reserve funding backstops by pooling dollars held by non-U.S. central banks, aiming to reduce their reliance on the U.S. under the Trump administration, five officials familiar with the matter told Reuters.

"The shutdown is over, but how soon are we going to go back to normal? How soon are we going to have numbers? How soon am I going to be able to do real, accurate analysis based on trusted American statistics from September and October? That's in doubt," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.29% to 99.19, with the euro up 0.34% at $1.1631. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened 0.12% to154.58.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was down 3.24% at $98,578.10, after falling to its lowest level since May.

In energy markets, oil futures settled slightly higher after selling off sharply in the previous session, as investors weighed concerns about global oversupply against looming sanctions against Russia's Lukoil.

U.S. crude settled up 0.34%, or 20 cents, at $58.69 a barrel while Brent settled at $63.01 per barrel, up 0.48%, or 30 cents, on the day.

Gold prices pulled back after hitting a three-week high earlier in the session, amid the broad market selloff that followed the reopening of the U.S. government.

Spot gold fell 0.51% to $4,177.21 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.96% to $4,164.10 an ounce.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped 3% to $98,550.33 as of press time, falling below the psychological $100,000 threshold for the third time this month amid cascading leverage liquidations, persistent ETF outflows, and a broader risk-off posture across digital assets.

The slide accelerated after Bitcoin broke support at $100,000, triggering over $190 million in long liquidations in the past hour, per Coinglass data.

Bitcoin failed to break through the support-turned-resistance level at $106,400 earlier this week, raising concerns about what was to come. However, every time it lost that level, it has always rebounded around the psychological $100,000 support or at least the $99,000 support created back in June. Bitcoin Loses its Last Line of Defense: $98k Breakdown Sparks Cascade not Seen Since May_1

Bitcoin Loses its Last Line of Defense: $98k Breakdown Sparks Cascade not Seen Since May_1

Total liquidations across the past 24 hours reached $655 million, amplifying downward momentum as over-leveraged positions unwound.

Ethereum declined 5.75% to $3,218.37, Solana dropped 5.2% to $145.55, and BNB fell 3.2% to $922.90, reflecting synchronized selling pressure across major tokens.

ETF flows turn negative as institutional demand softens

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $278 million on Nov. 12, contributing to roughly $961 million in cumulative redemptions this month, according to Farside Investors.

The shift from net inflows to modest withdrawals removes a key stabilizing force that supported prices through mid-2025, leaving spot markets more vulnerable to derivatives-driven volatility.

Historical patterns suggest that ETF flow reversals often coincide with consolidation phases rather than periods of directional conviction.

Glassnode’s Nov. 12 analysis confirms that Bitcoin has traded below the short-term holder cost basis of $111,900 since early October, establishing a bearish regime characterized by low liquidity and weak conviction.

The network’s short-term holder realized profit-loss ratio fell below 0.21 near $98,000, indicating that over 80% of the realized value came from coins sold at a loss, representing a capitulation intensity exceeding that of the last three major washouts of the current cycle.

Glassnode identifies the sub-$100,000 zone as a critical battleground where seller exhaustion is beginning to take shape. However, a sustained recovery requires Bitcoin to reclaim the $111,900 cost basis as a level of support.

Sentiment deteriorates as leverage dries up

Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates remain subdued across major exchanges, with both funding rates and open interest drifting lower since October’s leverage flush.

The absence of aggressive positioning reflects market hesitation, with traders avoiding directional bets as volatility expectations remain elevated.

Options market data reinforces this defensive stance. Put protection trades are priced at an 11% implied volatility premium over calls for short-term expiries, indicating that traders continue to pay for downside insurance.

Open interest concentrates heavily around the $100,000 strike for end-of-November expiries, making this level a critical threshold where dealer hedging flows could amplify volatility if breached.

Recent option flows have focused on puts between the $108,000 and $95,000 strikes, structured as outright protection or calendar spreads that capture expectations of near-term turbulence.

Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap reveals a dense supply cluster between $106,000 and $118,000, representing investors positioned to exit near breakeven.

This supply overhang creates natural resistance where rallies may stall unless renewed inflows absorb distribution pressure.

The firm notes demand from short-term holders, a proxy for new investor momentum, has remained notably weak since June 2025, reflecting an absence of fresh capital entering the market.

Broader risk sentiment deteriorated alongside crypto declines, with higher real yields and persistent funding stress pressuring speculative assets despite the recent resolution of the US government shutdown.

Morgan Stanley’s recent “fall season” note advised clients to harvest gains rather than chase upside during this phase of the four-year cycle, contributing to reduced risk appetite among institutional allocators.

The combination of heavy leverage positioning, soft ETF demand, and structural resistance above current prices transformed each breach below $100,000 into a self-reinforcing cascade.

Source: Cryptoslate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Political

European Union ministers on Thursday voted to eliminate duty-free status for small parcel imports, joining the United States in upending a popular mechanism for e-commerce platforms to directly ship orders across borders to households at low cost.

The agreement would eliminate the 150 euro customs threshold, equivalent to $174, below which shipments are exempt for paying duties in 2028, dependent on the successful completion of a centralized EU customs data hub that would replace fragmented national systems for processing trade flows. The online portal would be able to calculate and transmit customs debt owed on a per-item basis for packages entering the European Union.

Officials will now work on a temporary way to collect duties on low-value goods as soon as possible in 2026, according to the EU announcement.

The U.S. threshold for charging customs duties was $800 per individual shipment.

“We ensure that duties are paid from the first euro, creating a level playing field for European businesses and limiting the influx of low-cost goods,” said Stephanie Lose, Denmark’s minister for economic affairs.

The agreement on de minimis follows a European Council decision in June to collect a flat e-commerce handling fee of 2 euros, starting in November 2026, aimed at addressing the influx of inexpensive imports from Alibaba, Shein, Temu and other platforms in China.

The so-called de minimis rule has been under fire in the U.S. and Europe for giving foreign sellers an unfair advantage over domestic producers and traditional bulk imports of retail goods. European officials have also raised environmental concerns from extra packaging and vehicle emissions used to transport individual shipments instead of consolidated ones designed for store distribution. U.S. authorities have also criticized the trade-facilitation program as enabling the smuggling of illegal drugs and counterfeit products because e-commerce shipments can bypass regular customs checks.

The European Union received 4.6 billion parcel imports in 2024. According to estimates, up to 65% of small parcels entering the region are undervalued to avoid import duties and 91% of all e-commerce shipments valued below 150 euros came from China last year. Collecting duties on these shipments is expected to bring in $1.2 billion in customs revenue.

Although parcels valued below 150 euros are exempt from customs duties they are still subject to value-added tax and customs declarations in the EU.

Airfreight demand from China and Hong Kong to the U.S. has declined since May, when the Trump administration banned favorable customs treatment for small-dollar shipments. But e-commerce volumes from China to European countries have surged this year. In August, the U.S. government revoked the de minimis exemption for shipments from all countries.

Large online sellers have responded to the new rules by shifting much of their inbound inventory to ocean containers and fulfilling e-commerce orders from U.S. warehouses.

Source: FreightWaves

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Stocks

Central Bank

US stocks were lower Thursday as investors sold shares in technology companies and assessed how long it might take for economic data releases to be rebooted after the end of the government shutdown.

The Dow was down 650 points, or 1.35%. The broader S&P 500 fell 1.67%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 2.57%.

The House on Wednesday evening approved a funding measure that had been passed by the Senate. The bill was signed by President Donald Trump in the late evening, officially ending the longest US government shutdown in history.

Now Wall Street is focused on the backlog of government data that was delayed because of the shutdown — and how it might impact the Federal Reserve’s outlook for the economy.

“Lacking fresh economic data, markets have become increasingly jittery in recent weeks,” Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said in a note. “Now, as the government shutdown ends, each long-awaited data release or policy announcement will have the potential to move markets dramatically.”

CNN’s Fear and Greed index moved from “fear” into “extreme fear.” Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX, jumped 17% as volatility picked up.

“The gears of the government should be working again soon, and while that is a relief for markets and the economy, there is still plenty of uncertainty, particularly around the missed inflation and jobs data and how these fronts have been faring,” Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth, said in an email.

Traders on Thursday were pricing in roughly a 47% chance the Fed cuts rates in December, according to CME FedWatch. That’s down from a 63% chance on Wednesday and a 96% chance one month ago.

“The data blackout has made the Federal Reserve’s job difficult, but we still expect them to cut interest rates again in December,” Schleif said. “We expect markets to grind higher — though likely with continued volatility.”

Tech woes continue

Tech stocks have come under pressure in recent weeks as investors have voiced concerns about relatively expensive valuations and nerves about the foundations of the artificial intelligence boom.

The Nasdaq on Thursday was set for its worst day in a month. Tesla shares (TSLA) fell 7.7%. Palantir shares (PLTR) fell 6.9%, and Nvidia shares (NVDA) fell 5%.

After a strong tech rally in recent months, investors have been taking profits and rotating into sectors that have lagged behind and look relatively affordable.

Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said he recently trimmed some of his exposure to tech.

“It just had such a monstrous run that it just made sense to take the profits and find other opportunities,” Samana said.

The Dow pulled back on Thursday after back-to-back days of record highs. The blue-chip index closed above 48,000 points for the first time ever on Wednesday as investors moved into sectors including financials and health care.

Walt Disney shares (DIS) fell 7.9% on Thursday after the company reported earnings that did not impress Wall Street.

Fed back in focus

Investors are also trying to discern the Federal Reserve’s outlook for the economy ahead of the central bank’s policy meeting in December.

The Fed’s rate cuts in September and October helped provide a tailwind for stocks. Investors could get spooked if central bankers hold rates steady in December due to delayed data and a cloudy view of the economy.

“If sticky inflation forces the Fed to maintain restrictive policy, the cost of capital remains a headwind for valuations,” David Miller, CIO at Catalyst Funds, said in an email.