Traders bet on $200K year-end Bitcoin, but real odds tell a different story

Key takeaways:

• Diagonal and butterfly spreads benefit from BTC near $160,000.

• $200,000 year-end call options imply less than 3% chance of profit.

Bitcoin (BTC) traders are gearing up for the year-end $8.8 billion options expiry, scheduled for Dec. 26 at 8:00 am UTC. More than $1 billion in Bitcoin options would become active if the price surpasses $200,000. But does that signal that traders are expecting a 72% rally?

Calls dominate, but bears comfortable with Bitcoin below $120K

Currently, total open interest for call (buy) options stands at $6.45 billion, while put (sell) options trail at $2.36 billion. This data indicates a clear advantage for call options, though bearish traders appear somewhat comfortable with Bitcoin remaining below $120,000.

Some call options have strike prices set at $170,000 or higher and will expire worthless unless Bitcoin gains 46% from its current level. In fact, if BTC trades near $116,500 on Dec. 26, only $878 million worth of call open interest will hold value at expiry.

Professional traders often use highly bullish call options as part of strategies that don’t necessarily depend on a 70% year-end rally.

One such strategy, the Call Diagonal Spread, involves buying a $200,000 December call and selling a $200,000 call with an earlier expiry, typically in October.

This setup profits most if BTC exceeds $146,000 by Oct. 31, causing the long-dated call to appreciate while the short-term call expires worthless.

However, BTC prices above $200,000 can actually hurt this strategy. The maximum potential loss is BTC 0.005 (about $585 at current prices), while the maximum gain is BTC 0.0665 (roughly $7,750).

Another example is the “Inverse Call Butterfly,” which consists of buying one $140,000 call, selling two $160,000 calls, and buying one $200,000 call—all with December expiries.

This position profits most if BTC lands near $160,000 on Dec. 26, netting BTC 0.112 (around $13,050). However, losses begin to accrue if BTC climbs past $178,500. Even so, the $200,000 call helps cap potential losses. In this case, the maximum loss is 0.109 BTC, or approximately $12,700.

$900M in Bitcoin put options target $50–$80K

A sizable open interest in $200,000 call options does not necessarily mean traders expect Bitcoin to reach that level. In fact, nearly $900 million in put options are positioned between $50,000 and $80,000 for the December expiry, showing that bearish bets are also in play, even if they carry lower odds.

To illustrate the market sentiment, the $140,000 call is currently priced around BTC 0.051 (roughly $5,940), implying a 21% probability based on the Black-Scholes model. Meanwhile, the $200,000 call trades at BTC 0.007 (about $814), reflecting an implied probability below 3%.

These aggressive strike prices may grab headlines, but the data tells a different story. Traders are not betting the farm on a 72% rally. Instead, they are using far-out-of-the-money calls as tools within structured strategies that offer limited risk and leveraged upside.

Unlike Bitcoin options, however, the odds of BTC price reaching $200,000 this year is higher at 13%, according to Polymarket.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.