Strategists Forecast Week on Week USA Crude Stock Build

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up for the week ending October 10.

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone late Monday by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 5.2 million barrels for the week ending October 10.

“This follows a 3.7 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing relatively close to our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.

“For this week’s balance, from refineries, we model a large reduction in crude runs (-0.6 million barrels per day) following a surprisingly strong print last week,” they added.

“Among net imports, we model a large reduction, with exports higher (+0.2 million barrels per day) and imports lower (-0.6 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued.

The strategists warned in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.

“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a moderate increase (+0.5 MBD) on a nominal basis this week,” the strategists went on to state in the report.

“Rounding out the picture, we model a larger increase (+0.5 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,” they added.

Also in the report, the Macquarie strategists noted that, “among products”, they “look for draws in gasoline (-1.4 million barrels) and distillate (-0.6 million barrels), with a build in jet (+1.1 million barrels)”.

“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.2 million barrels per day for the week ending October 10,” the strategists stated in the report.

In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on October 8 and includes data for the week ending October 3, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 3.7 million barrels from the week ending September 26 to the week ending October 3.

That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 420.3 million barrels on October 3, 416.5 million barrels on September 26, and 422.7 million barrels on October 4, 2024. The report highlighted that data may not add up to totals due to independent rounding.

Crude oil in the SPR stood at 407.0 million barrels on October 3, 406.7 million barrels on September 26, and 382.9 million barrels on October 4, 2024, according to that EIA report. Total petroleum stocks - including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils - stood at 1.694 billion barrels on October 3, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were down 0.9 million barrels week on week and up 52.2 million barrels year on year, the report showed.

In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Friday, Van Ha Trinh, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness, warned that “underlying inventory figures … point to potentially lower prices”.

“The latest official U.S. report showed that commercial crude oil stockpiles grew by 3.7 million barrels, which was larger than expected. However, the decline in gasoline and distillate stocks could limit the impact,” Trinh added in that analysis.

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on October 6 by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 4.3 million barrels for the week ending October 3.

The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on October 16. It will include data for the week ending October 10.

In its weekly petroleum status report, the EIA describes itself as the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. Although the White House website highlights that the U.S. government is currently shut down, a banner visible on the EIA website on Wednesday states that the EIA “is continuing normal publication schedules and data collection until further notice”.

Source: Rigzone

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Adam

Commodity

Oil prices steadied on Wednesday after closing at five-month lows in the previous session, as investors weighed the International Energy Agency's prediction of a supply surplus in 2026 and trade tensions between the U.S. and China that could curtail demand.

Brent crude futures were up 3 cents, or 0.1%, at $62.42 a barrel by 1145 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $58.81 a barrel.

The International Energy Agency said on Tuesday that the global oil market could face a surplus next year of up to 4 million barrels per day, more than it had previously forecast, as OPEC+ and other producers raise output and demand remains sluggish.

"The market is focusing on excess supply amid mixed demand signals. Ebbing geopolitical risks and escalating trade tensions are also adding further pressure on prices," said Emril Jamil, a senior oil analyst at LSEG.

The trade dispute between the U.S. and China, the world's two largest oil consumers, has reignited over the last week, with both countries imposing additional port fees on ships carrying cargo between them. That will raise trading costs and disrupt freight flows, likely lowering economic output.

"Oil prices are currently influenced by trade tensions and market risk sentiment," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

China last week announced it would increase rare earth export controls and U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 100% and tighten software export curbs from November 1.

"Beyond U.S.-China trade relations and the progress of talks, the key for oil prices now is the degree of oversupply, reflected in changes in global inventories," said Yang An, analyst at Haitong Futures.

For a view on U.S. demand, traders await weekly inventory data. U.S. crude oil stockpiles are expected to have risen last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories likely fell, a preliminary Reuters poll showed.

Six analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 200,000 barrels in the week to October 10.

The weekly industry report from the American Petroleum Institute is expected at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) on Wednesday, and U.S. Energy Information Administration data at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Thursday.

Source: reuters

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Instead, February's Monetary Policy Report looks to be the optimal date for another rate cut.

According to a new research note from Goldman Sachs economists, another cut in 2025 is off the cards because progress to get inflation lower has stalled, leaving headline CPI too high.

In addition, inflation expectations are uncertain, and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) wants to evaluate post-Budget data and early-2026 wage information before resuming cuts.

The Bank needs to see what the government is up to and awaits the November 26 budget, which should deliver a contractionary impulse to demand, meaning it can help in getting inflation rates lower.

According to Goldman Sachs the MPC will likely wait to see how strongly the budget weighs on growth and inflation before adjusting policy, meaning February is the first meeting with some credible post-Budget data to chew on.

Key members of the MPC, including Governor Andrew Bailey and Chief Economist Huw Pill, continue to stress vigilance on inflation and view the current Bank Rate as only slightly above neutral. If they see a benefit in waiting, then the MPC will likely comply.

Several members (Lombardelli, Greene, Mann) have argued for slowing or pausing cuts until the inflation trajectory is clearer.

There are reasons not to wait too long, however.

February emerges as the optimal date for a reduction in rates owing to persistent signs of labour market weakness: the UK labour market continues to soften, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.83% in August (from 4.66% in July) and expected to reach 4.9% at the next data release, exceeding the BoE’s estimate of the structural rate.

Bank of England to Cut Rates February: Goldman Sachs_1

Above: The UK labour market has only added jobs in two of the months since Labour took power. Source: ONS PAYE series.

Forward-looking indicators such as the KPMG/REC and BoE Decision Maker Panel surveys also point to further loosening ahead.

Falling rates of employment inevitably point to easing wage growth pressures, which in turn limit's inflation's upside potential.

Private sector regular pay growth has slowed more than expected, dropping to 4.4% year-on-year in August from 6.2% in December 2024, and is likely to undershoot the BoE’s forecast of 4.6% for Q3.

Forward-looking pay surveys (Indeed, Brightmine, KPMG/REC, DMP) indicate additional moderation in wage pressures.

The 26 November Budget is also expected to take the pressure off inflation as it delivers around £30bn (1% of GDP) in fiscal tightening, up from £20bn previously projected.

This will likely come through tax-side adjustments and is expected to drag demand by around 0.3%, further cooling the economy and reducing inflationary pressure.

While underlying services inflation has stalled recently, Goldman expects “significant progress” in early 2026, as rent and wage-sensitive components ease and regulated price effects fade, creating room for the BoE to resume cuts.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Michelle

Stocks

Economic

Within the global trend, the US 30 index has declined, leading to a shift towards a downward trajectory. The US 30 forecast for today is negative.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

Recent data: the US Federal Reserve balance sheet decreased to 6.59 trillion USD
Market impact: the data has a moderately positive impact on the stock market

US 30 fundamental analysis

Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics conference in Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell discussed in detail the current stage of quantitative tightening. Although he did not specify when the program might end, Powell noted that there are signs the Fed is nearing its target level of adequate reserves available to banks. While balance sheet management may appear to be a technical issue, it plays an important role for financial markets.

When financial conditions tighten, the Fed aims to maintain ample reserves so that banks can access liquidity and support the economy. As conditions evolve, the central bank targets a sufficient – rather than excessive – level of reserves to prevent surplus capital in the system. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve significantly expanded its balance sheet through large-scale purchases of US Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, pushing it close to 9 trillion USD.

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index continues to fall within a downtrend. The resistance level has formed at 46,880.0, while support lies at 45,450.0. At this stage, it is difficult to assess how long the current trend might last. A breakout above the current resistance level would signal a potential resumption of upward movement.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 45,450.0 support level could send the index down to 44,565.0
Optimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout above the 46,880.0 resistance level could push the index up to 47,880.0

US 30 Forecast: The Index Is Correcting After The Decline_1

US 30 technical analysis for 15 October 2025

Summary

Jerome Powell noted signs of gradually tightening liquidity conditions, suggesting that further reserve reductions could hinder growth. The US 30 stock index has been in a downtrend since late last week. Only developments related to the US-China trade conflict are likely to reverse this trend, while economic data remains unavailable due to the government shutdown. The next downside target for the index could be 46,880.0.

Source: RoboForex

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

London stocks had extended losses by midday on Wednesday as investors mulled the prospect of tax rises and spending cuts in the next Budget.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.6% at 9,399.78, underperforming peers in Europe, where the Stoxx 600 benchmark index rose 0.7% and France’s CAC 40 gained a whopping 2.5% as LVMH led the luxury sector higher after solid quarterly results.

Joshua Mahony at Scope Markets said the UK index was "weighed down by renewed fiscal concerns after the chancellor warned of significant tax rises and spending cuts that could go further than required to plug the public finance gap".

"While such measures may reduce the risk of repeated tax hikes later in her tenure, they also raise fears of fresh pressure on UK growth," he said.

"The IMF offered some encouragement with an upgraded 2026 growth forecast of 1.3%, but with inflation restricting Bank of England support, and fiscal tightening on the horizon, the outlook for a meaningful improvement in momentum remains limited."

Investors were also mulling the latest comments from US President Donald Trump, who suggested on Tuesday that he was considering ending certain trade ties with China, including cooking oil imports, as a response to reduced US soybean purchases by China.

Danske Bank said: "The move highlights escalating trade tensions, with Washington and Beijing already at odds over tariffs, supply chains, and broader geopolitical issues."

Across the Pond, earnings were due from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley following a raft of bank earnings on Tuesday.

In UK equity markets, defence stocks fell, with Babcock and BAE Systems both weaker, while Jupiter Fund Management and Rathbones also lost ground after updates.

Gambling and gaming giant Entain retreated even as it reiterated its full-year guidance, despite a slew of customer-friendly results during the third quarter.

On the upside, luxury fashion brand Burberry shot to the top of the FTSE 100 after third-quarter number from France’s LVMH impressed. Luxury watch retailer Watches of Switzerland also rallied.

Pets at Home was faring well, up 4% after the Competition and Markets Authority said that vets should be made to publish prices so customers can look around for the best deal, and suggested price caps on prescriptions.

On the whole, the provisional findings of the CMA's two-year investigation and suggested remedies threw up no surprises.

Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "The outcome is broadly as expected, but with no major negative surprises should alleviate the uncertainty that’s been weighing on consumer and investor sentiment.

"That’s seen a share price increase for Pets at Home, with its growing veterinary offer, and a bigger spike for CVS Group, which is more of a pure play on the industry. That said, the line under the matter has only been pencilled in so far. A further consultation is underway and a deadline for publication of the final decision has been set for March 2026."

Elsewhere, recruiter PageGroup surged as it reported a drop in third-quarter profit amid a more challenging market in Europe, but said 2025 operating profit was expected to be broadly in line with current market consensus of £21.5m.

British Land also rose on the back of a well-received trading update.

Source: Sharecast

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Stocks

OPENING CALL

Stocks were poised to open higher Wednesday, with investors awaiting updates from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley after a clutch of strong earnings from big banks Tuesday.

Gold continued its record-breaking run, with most-active futures contracts topping $4,200 a troy ounce on fears the trade spat with China could grow.

Investors are unsure how and if the standoff will play out, but people close to Beijing's decision-making said China expects that the prospect of another market meltdown ultimately will force Trump to negotiate at an expected summit with Xi late this month.

The government shutdown has delayed the consumer-price index, initially due for release Wednesday, but is now set to be published next week.

Some other economic data are expected to be issued as normal: the Federal Reserve's Beige Book survey, and the New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing survey.

Stocks to Watch

ASP Isotopes is starting an underwritten public offering. Shares fell 11% off market.

Dentsply Sirona said a SEC probe into its accounting practices closed. The stock advanced 4% off hours.

Veritone said its contract bookings and pipeline has doubled to $40 million since August, and it expects to report higher revenue and a narrower loss than analysts are forecasting. Shares rose 47%.

Watch For:

CPI for September was due (delayed); earnings from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, United Airlines

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MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar fell to a nearly one-week low against a basket of currencies after Powell signaled further rate cuts and China trade tensions built.

Powell highlighted that the labor market has shown significant downside risks.

"Markets took his speech as a signal that he could be ready to support an interest-rate cut [at the October 29 meeting]," Danske Bank said.

Also on Tuesday, Trump threatened terminating some ties with China, including in relation to cooking oil, in retaliation for Beijing refusing to buy U.S. soybeans.

ING said the dollar could stay under pressure as the Fed's upcoming Beige Book might signal further rate cuts.

The euro looked less fragile as the spread between French and German government-bond yields narrowed following the more positive developments in French politics, ING said.

It added that if Lecornu survives Thursday's confidence vote, the euro could rise and potentially build strong support around $1.1600.

Bonds:

Treasury yields traded marginally lower across maturities as investors bet the Fed was likely to cut rates at its meeting this month.

Capital Economics said the fall in Treasury yields might be bottoming out soon.

"Unless the trade war returns in earnest, we doubt Treasury yields will fall much further in the near term."

The main explanation for the current relatively low Treasury yields is that, notwithstanding a lower perceived risk of recession today, "the outlook for Fed policy has shifted in favor of lower rates over recent months."

Energy:

Oil prices extended losses as fears of an impending supply glut and trade tensions with China clouded crude's outlook.

The benchmarks are down more than 6% on the week after the IEA projected a larger surplus than previously anticipated, with massive volumes of oil in floating storage or transit soon set to reach key hubs.

Traders also fear escalating tensions with China could curtail demand and awaits crude and gasoline inventory data due later in the session for more cues on consumption trends.

Metals:

Gold prices hit a fresh record as the China trade standoff and growing expectations of further rate cuts boosted demand for precious metals.

Silver

Silver was likely to gain further due to an additional tailwind stemming from its position as an industrial metal, XS.com said.

Zinc

Zinc gained as investors considered Chinese plans to sell zinc overseas, which ANZ said would likely open an arbitrage window.

Some Chinese zinc smelters plan to sell to Southeast Asia, and the potential flood of metal to non-Chinese markets has helped to push prices down.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Salesforce-Linked Security Breach Fallout Escalates With Qantas Leak

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ASML Logs Strong Orders Amid AI Spending Frenzy

ASML Holding posted better-than-expected orders of its chip-making equipment for the third quarter as demand for sophisticated semiconductors to power artificial intelligence shows no sign of abating.

The Dutch group reported orders of 5.40 billion euros ($6.27 billion), up from 2.63 billion euros a year earlier and above analysts' forecast of nearly 5.36 billion euros, according to consensus estimates by Visible Alpha.

TotalEnergies Expects Higher Oil Production But Flags LNG Hit

TotalEnergies expects higher oil and gas production and a jump in margins but said earnings in its integrated liquefied natural gas division will be hit by maintenance work.

The French energy major said Wednesday that it expects to produce 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent a day for the third quarter, a 4% on-year rise that compared with guidance of more than 3% growth.

European Luxury Stocks Rise After Louis Vuitton-Owner LVMH Swings to Growth for First Time This Year

Shares in European luxury-goods makers surged Wednesday after bellwether LVMH said sales rose a little over the third quarter, a sign that a debilitating slump in demand for high-end goods may be nearing an end.

LVMH, the world's largest luxury group and owner of fashion houses Louis Vuitton and Dior, booked revenue of 18.28 billion euros ($21.22 billion) for the third quarter, 1% more than the same period a year ago, adjusted for currency effects.

Jeep Maker Stellantis Plans $13 Billion Investment to Boost U.S. Manufacturing

Stellantis is planning to spend billions of dollars to make more Jeeps, pickups and Dodge SUVs in the United States, in what the global automaker describes as the largest single investment in its history.

Stellantis said Tuesday that it would spend $13 billion through the end of the decade as it launches five new vehicles and a new four-cylinder engine, creating more than 5,000 jobs at plants across the Midwest. Suppliers providing parts for those models may add 20,000 jobs, Chief Executive Antonio Filosa said in an interview.

French Markets Buoyed as Government Moves Toward Budget Compromise

French financial assets gained ground and the euro rose against the dollar Wednesday after the country's prime minister moved toward securing a compromise to avoid a government collapse and pass next year's budget.

The relief came from decisive action from newly reappointed Prime Minister Sebastian Lecornu, who on Tuesday proposed suspending a pension reform until the 2027 presidential election to win over socialist lawmakers and break the deadlock in France's fragmented parliament.

Blue States Are Setting Up a Shadow Public-Health Alliance to Counter RFK Jr.

The public-health resistance to Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is growing.

Governors across 15 states including New York, California and North Carolina are forming a new public-health alliance to detect and respond to disease threats, saying federal-funding cuts and policy changes by the Trump administration are putting their citizens at risk and forcing them to find alternatives.

State Department Revokes Visas Over Charlie Kirk Comments

The State Department said it has revoked the visas of at least six people for their comments on the death of conservative activist Charlie Kirk.

The agency revoked visas from nationals of countries including Argentina, South Africa and Mexico, the department said in a social-media post Tuesday. The department didn't say if the people were in the country at the time their visas were revoked and didn't specify what kinds of visas they held or when the visas were revoked.

Source: morningstar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Forex

Political

When an incursion of Russian drones forced Warsaw airport to shut down last month, Poland immediately shot them down. When unidentified drones forced Munich airport to suspend operations this month, German authorities provided snacks for stranded passengers while police helicopters monitored the air space. As strange as it may sound, Germany’s military isn’t allowed to defend German airspace against anything short of a full-scale invasion. It’s just one roadblock of many in the way of making Germany fighting fit.

On paper, Berlin has a free pass to strengthen national defense. With military spending above 1% gross domestic product exempted from borrowing restrictions, there is effectively no limit on funding of the military, known as the Bundeswehr. But as the drone dilemma indicates, Germany faces more daunting obstacles to defending itself as the neighborhood gets increasingly dangerous.

For one, the constitution, written after World War II, strictly limits the military’s role inside the country, even banning it from shooting down flying objects such as drones anywhere in domestic airspace that isn’t above a military base. This rule was meant to prevent the kind of military overreach seen during authoritarian times, especially under the Nazi regime. Today, these restrictions make it hard to respond to modern threats.

Germany could of course change the legislation, but this is where its deeply fragmented political landscape comes into play. For the first time in post-war history, Germany’s moderate parties don’t command a two-thirds majority in parliament, which is necessary to change constitutionally enshrined rules like the one in question. The far-right AfD and the far-left Die Linke together take up over a third of the seats. The ruling conservatives have a party resolution in place not to negotiate with either.

Even if Chancellor Friedrich Merz talked to all political parties freely to find a two-thirds majority to change the rules, it’s unlikely that he’d find one. His coalition partners, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), have a vocal pacifist wing and the Green Party has its roots in the peace movements of the 1970s and 1980s. When Merz’s Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt recently suggested finding a way to use the Bundeswehr against drone attacks, representatives of both parties rejected the idea outright.

With the head of the foreign intelligence service, Martin Jaeger, warning this week that “a frosty peace” in Europe “could turn into hot confrontation here and there at any moment,” it seems impossible for Merz to find a political consensus to defend German airspace.But his problems run deeper than that. Many Germans themselves harbor a profound mistrust of state power and public institutions. The Bundeswehr itself has remained popular, with around three-quarters of people saying in polls that they trust it as an institution. But belief in the politicians that would direct its actions has reached a nadir, with one recent survey suggesting that only 17% trust their democratically elected government.

The far-right AfD, now neck-and-neck with the ruling conservatives in the polls, embodies this dilemma. On the one hand, the party program demands more funding for the Bundeswehr and a reintroduction of a compulsory military service to “secure Germany’s defense capability.” On the other, many of its politicians, especially in the former East Germany, openly question if a boosted Bundeswehr would be used “in the German interest,” as the AfD leader in the state of Brandenburg, Christoph Berndt, told the media recently.

Surprisingly for a party that claims to have the national interest at heart, some AfD representatives wouldn’t even be willing to fight for their country in case of an outright attack. A young regional MP, Felix Teichner, told a German journalist last year: “One thing is clear: if this country is attacked, no matter by whom, I will grab my children and go as far away as possible.”He is not alone with this view. A recent survey found that only 16% of Germans would “definitely” defend the country with arms. That’s despite the fact that over a quarter of people thought it likely that Germany would be attacked militarily within the next five years. It’s hardly surprising that the political class can’t find a consensus when society shares their deeply entrenched reluctance to build German defense readiness.

Germany’s grappling with the question of how to defend its airspace from drone incursions is the tip of a giant iceberg of problems when it comes to rearmament and defense readiness. A deeply divided country with increasingly messy politics, it is far from mounting the kind of collective resolve necessary to build an effective military ethos. It’s a conundrum that afflicts much of the West to varying degrees. But Germany’s exceptional fiscal power, combined with its particular past and present, creates a unique paradox: Germany is an economic giant that is astonishingly hard to defend.