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Asian stocks declined Wednesday as Wall Street's post-Trump election rally cooled, with U.S. futures down and Treasury yields rising. Bitcoin hit a new high before easing, while oil prices fluctuated.
The e-commerce platform has had six straight quarters of 25% year-over-year revenue growth.
Shopify (NYSE: SHOP) stock was the biggest movers on Tuesday, skyrocketing more than 25% on the day to about $113 per share.
The e-commerce platform generated $2.16 billion in revenue in the quarter, up 26% year-over-year and ahead of analysts’ estimates of $2.11 billion. It was the sixth straight quarter with greater than 25% revenue growth.
Net income rose 15% to $828 million, but the preferred non-GAAP adjusted earnings spiked 99% to $344 million, or 64 cents per share. That crushed estimates of 27 cents per share. The adjusted earnings exclude the impact of equity investments in third parties, which are not relevant to the fundamentals of the business or indicative of operating earnings.
With today’s meteoric rise, Shopify stock is up about 53% year-to-date to around $113 per share.
The strong Q3 earnings were driven by robust activity on its shopping platform, combined with sound expense management.
Specifically, Shopify saw a 24% rise in gross merchandise volume, or GMV, to $69.7 billion, which beat estimates of $67.5 billion. The GMV represents the dollar value of orders facilitated through the Shopify platform. Further, its monthly recurring revenue (MRR), which is the number of merchants multiplied by the average monthly subscription plan fee, jumped 28% year-over-year to $175 million.
Overall, Shopify’s subscription solutions revenue climbed 25% to $610 million in the quarter while its merchant solutions arm saw revenue increase 26% to $1.55 billion, which beat estimates of $1.52 billion.
In addition, Shopify was able to keep expenses in check, as they rose just 7% compared to the third quarter of 2023, with general and administrative expenses actually falling 17% to $114 million.
This enabled Shopify to boost its free cash flow by 52% to $421 million, as it gained in each of the first three quarters this year. The free cash flow margin rose to 19%, from 16% in the same quarter a year ago. This is an important measure as it allows to invest in both operations and future growth.
“Q3 was outstanding, further establishing Shopify as a leader in powering commerce anywhere, anytime. Our unified commerce platform is becoming the go-to choice for merchants of all sizes,” Harley Finkelstein, president of Shopify, said. “As the busiest shopping season of the year for our merchants’ approaches, they trust Shopify to provide the tools, unmatched speed, and reliability to maximize their success.”
Investors were not only impressed by the strong growth; they were also heartened by Shopify’s Q4 outlook.
The firm anticipates another quarter of robust revenue growth, targeting a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate spike in revenue in Q4.
Gross profit, which climbed 24% to $1.12 billion last quarter, is expected to see a similar growth rate in Q4 while operating expenses, as a percentage of revenue, are targeted at 32% to 33%. This would be lower than the approximately 38% rate last quarter.
Shopify earned some price target upgrades after Q3 results, including Evercore, which boosted it by $45 to $125 per share. In addition, Roth MKM boosted the target to $135 per share. That would represent a 13% to 22% increase in the share price.
But prior to the Q3 earnings release, Shopify had a median target of $80 per share, which would suggest a 29% drop.
The concern is the P/E ratio, which shot up to 98, with a forward P/E of 68. While it has enjoyed robust and sustained growth, that seems a bit too high and should be monitored.
(Nov 13): Billionaire Elon Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy will lead a new Department of Government Efficiency tasked to “dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure federal agencies”, US President-elect Donald Trump announced on Tuesday.
On the campaign trail, Trump said the government efficiency effort would develop a plan to eliminate “fraud and improper payments”, conducting a “complete financial and performance audit” of the federal government. On Tuesday, Trump said the panel would partner with the White House’s Office of Management and Budget and said their work will conclude no later than July 4, 2026 — the nation’s 250th anniversary.
The structure may allow Musk to avoid resigning from his companies including Tesla Inc, the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, and SpaceX, which dominates the worldwide rocket launch market — and federal conflict-of-interest rules that could have mandated divestiture.
But it’s not clear what the size or structure will be, or how Musk and Ramaswamy will drive the dramatic overhaul of the government they have promised. The effort, which abbreviates to 'Doge', is a play on one of Musk’s favorite internet memes, and Musk has been an advocate of a the digital token Dogecoin. In a post to his social media network X, Musk suggested the government efficiency panel would offer merch.
Musk predicted he could cut at least US$2 trillion (RM8.90 trillion) from the US federal budget at Trump’s rally last month at Madison Square Garden, though that would exceed the amount Congress spends annually on government agency operations, including defense. It would likely require making significant cuts to popular entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and veterans’ benefits.
Last fiscal year, the government spent more than US$6.75 trillion, with more than US$5.3 trillion of that coming from Social Security, healthcare, defence and veterans’ benefits — all of which are politically fraught and notoriously difficult to convince Congress to cut — as well as interest on the debt.
“This will send shockwaves through the system, and anyone involved in Government waste, which is a lot of people,” Musk said on Tuesday in a statement provided by the Trump transition effort.
Musk, 53, saw his net worth top US$300 billion shortly after the election — the first time he’d surpassed that mark in almost three years. He is the only person to ever have a fortune in excess of US$300 billion, according to Bloomberg’s wealth index. Tesla shares, which were trading about 1.5% lower in the after-hours session before Trump’s announcement, pared losses slightly after the news.
Musk is likely to serve as a special government employee, the formal designation for individuals outside of government brought in for short periods to lend their expertise.Ramaswamy, an Ohio businessman, mounted a bid for the GOP nomination himself but largely echoed and amplified Trump’s position.
During his run, Ramaswamy, 39, was loathe to criticise Trump, praising the Republican standard-bearer and endorsing many of the policies the incoming president has espoused, including scaling back the size of the federal government and pulling back from foreign alliances.
Ramaswamy also backed ending US aid to Ukraine, called at one point for a wall along the US-Canada border to halt the spread of fentanyl and has been an advocate for the cryptocurrency industry, calling for rolling back regulations and implementing drastic cuts to the Securities and Exchange Commission.
His staunch support for Trump, fuelled by some breakout moments in primary debates that saw him attack some of the president-elect’s top rivals for the nomination, helped him build his standing among conservative voters. Ramaswamy would go on to be a fervent surrogate for the president-elect, earning Trump’s praise.
While Trump ruled him out as a running mate, he weighed him as a possible Cabinet pick as early as March, according to people familiar with the matter at the time.
On the trail, Trump praised Ramaswamy as “smart”, and expressed hope that he would be part of a second-term administration.
“We can put him in charge of one of these big monsters, and he will do a better job than anybody you can think of,” Trump said at a campaign rally in October.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades in negative territory on Wednesday after reaching a fresh all-time low in the previous session. The local currency is under pressure due to substantial foreign institutional outflows and heightened US Dollar (USD) demand. Despite a strengthening Greenback and outflows from local stocks, the downside for the INR might be limited amid routine interventions from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to sell the USD to stabilize the currency. Later on Wednesday, traders will closely monitor the US October Consumer Price Index (CPI), along with the speeches from John Williams, Lorie Logan, Jeffrey Schmid and Alberto Musalem.
India's retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to a 14-month high at 6.21% YoY in October versus 5.49% prior, higher than the 5.81% expected.
India’s food inflation jumped to 10.87% from 9.24% in September 2024 and 6.61% in October 2023, according to the latest official data released on Tuesday.
Indian Industrial Production grew by 3.1% YoY in September from a decline of 0.1% in August. This figure came in better than the estimation of 2.5%.
Foreign investors withdrew nearly $3 billion from local stocks in November, adding to the $11 billion of outflows in October.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday that the Fed feels confident about its long-running battle with transitory inflation, but it’s premature to declare outright victory. Kashkari further stated that the US central bank won't model Trump policies' effect on the economy until they become clear.
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted on Tuesday that while inflation appears to be coming down, it might still get stuck above the Fed's target levels.
The Indian Rupee softens on the day. The constructive view of the USD/INR pair remains unchanged on the daily chart, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeds 70, indicating an overbought condition. This suggests that further consolidation cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term USD/INR appreciation.
The immediate resistance level for USD/INR emerges at 84.50. A break above this level could draw in enough bullish pressure to the 85.00 psychological level.
In the bearish event, sustained trading below the resistance-turned-support level at 84.30 could expose the 84.05-84.10 region, representing the lower limit of the trend channel and the high of October 11. The next downside filter to watch is 83.85, the 100-day EMA.
What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee?
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee?
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee?
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee?
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
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