Safeguard Acquisition raises $230 million in IPO with full overallotment

By Philip van Doorn

Also: What to stream as Netflix agrees to acquire Warner Bros. and HBO; and a wonderful economic scenario for dollar stores and their shareholders

The U.S. stock market and gold are nearing peak valuation levels, according to Mark Hulbert's analysis of four investor-sentiment indexes.

The U.S. stock market appears to be expensive by a commonly used measure. The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings multiple is 22.5, which is 20% higher than its 10-year average forward P/E of 18.8, according to LSEG.

Then again, the S&P 500 SPX is highly concentrated to the largest technology companies, which have been growing rapidly. So maybe during this stage of the artificial-intelligence buildout, it shouldn't be a surprise to see a high P/E valuation.

But what about investor sentiment? Exuberance can signal a market crest preceding a sharp decline. Long-term investors in index funds have been well served by riding out weak periods for the market. For example, the S&P 500 fell 18.1% in 2022, with dividends reinvested. On the same basis, the index gained 26.29% in 2023 and gained another 25% in 2024. This year through Thursday, the index had gained 18%. All of that makes for a gain of 52.5% since the end of 2021.

A market timer looking to avoid the worst of the 2022 decline might have done so by moving to the sidelines as they anticipated the Federal Reserve's moves to increase short-term rates, which began in March of that year. But the market timer might also have returned to the stock market well after its recovery had started.

Yet plenty of investors and traders still try to time the market. Mark Hulbert spelled out how four sentiment indicators were pointing to market tops for stocks and for gold.

On the other hand: Why ETF investors are shaking off tech-stock turbulence and AI bubble fears

More technical analysis: These five charts hint at where stocks might go next after a wild November for the market

And more from Hulbert: Market forecasts are usually wrong - but this inflation-fighting asset sees the future

Netflix's planned transformation, and what to stream in the meantime

Netflix aims to cement its dominance of the streaming industry with its acquisition of HBO Max and the Warner Bros. film and TV studios.

On Friday, Netflix (NFLX) agreed to acquire most of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), with the deal expected to be completed after WBD separates its cable networks into a new company called Discovery Global. Netflix is funding its $82.7 billion acquisition of WBD's film and TV studios, along with its HBO Max streaming service, with a combination of stock and cash - with cash making up 84% of the total.

Lukas Alpert explained how the deal can transform the streaming industry, and why Netflix's management team decided on making a radical move.

Meanwhile, Mike Murphy broke down eight streaming services' offerings this month, as well as the details of their pricing plans. Here's what to stream in December, and how much it will cost.

Even the largest corporate holder of bitcoin is worried

Investors who hold bitcoin need to accept a high level of volatility.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was trading for $89,104 late Friday morning Eastern time, down 2% from the latest quoted price a week earlier, according to data provided by CoinDesk. Bitcoin's price was down 5% from the end of 2024, after being up as much as 35% year to date on Oct. 6.

Software-company-turned-bitcoin-play Strategy (MSTR) reported holding 650,000 bitcoins as of Nov. 30. Here is coverage of this week's major events surrounding the company and the cryptocurrency market:

• Bitcoin is slumping again. Its biggest corporate owner admits it may have to sell if things get worse.
• Strategy's stock shows why it's a trade, and not an investment
• Vanguard finally dips a toe into crypto waters as bitcoin rebounds above $91,000
• With bitcoin down to around $92,000, should you rethink how much crypto to own? Here's what experts say.

Good times for discount retailers

Dollar General's stock rose 14% on Dec. 4 after the retailer reported its quarterly results.

Stubbornly high inflation as well as a difficult market for job seekers mean good times for Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Dollar General (DG), both of which reported remarkable quarterly results this week. Fascinating details were provided by the rivals' chief executives during conference calls, as reported by Tomi Kilgore:

• Most of Dollar Tree's new customers are making more than $100,000 a year
• Dollar General sees more customer traffic at stores, something Dollar Tree didn't have

Here's a stock screen covering the dollar stores and nine other discount retailers.

More coverage of retailers from MarketWatch's companies team:

• American Eagle had Sydney Sweeney. But its lesser-known lingerie brand carried the day.
• The one thing people are still buying? Beauty products, and Ulta just proved it.
• Costco's stock turns negative for the year as U.S. sales trends decelerate

Housing-market forecasts for 2026

This has been a difficult year for home sellers in many U.S. markets, while tough times for job seekers have discouraged some would-be buyers. Aarthi Swaminathan interviewed housing-market veterans to present a 2026 real-estate forecast.

Big Tech news

Despite reports that a bubble for technology stocks has started to deflate, the S&P 500's informaiton-technology sector XX:SP500.45 was up 25.5% for 2025 through Thursday, with dividends reinvested. The sector's market-capitalization weighting is so heavy that it makes up 34.9% of the portfolio of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, which tracks the index by holding all of its stocks.

Here is a sampling of this week's tech-sector coverage from MarketWatch:

• Meta's stock pop could be just the start as Zuckerberg takes aim at 'black hole' of spending
• Oracle stock sentiment 'has quickly deteriorated.' Can earnings brighten the mood?
• Why Microsoft's controversial OpenAI partnership is actually a safety net for the stock
• This Tesla move could help the EV maker shake a sales slump

Some 'outrageous' 2026 bets for traders

The daily Need to Know column and email newsletter features investing and trading ideas from professional money managers. Following its annual tradition, Saxo Bank came out with a list of outrageous predictions for technology, money and markets in 2026.

More from the Need to Know column:

• Follow the leader. New research finds these members of Congress are the best stock pickers.
• Why 'buy the dip' is not that great a strategy - and what works better, according to this quant firm.
• An AI air pocket and a struggling consumer could become a double whammy for stocks in 2026, Bank of America predicts

The Moneyist tackles sensitive topics

Quentin Fottrell is the Moneyist.

Quentin Fottrell - the Moneyist - doesn't shy away from topics that might send others running:

• 'She's young enough to be his granddaughter': My dad, 85, is being seduced by his caregiver. What can I do?
• 'I don't have money to pay for a death certificate': My sister refuses to probate my father's estate. What can I do?
• 'I love my work': I'm a 61-year-old Chicago public-school teacher with a $60K annual pension. Is it safe?
• 'She'll let him live there for free': My sister wants to buy our impoverished brother's house. Is that a bad idea?

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-Philip van Doorn

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