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Money raised through funds targeted to institutional investors, including asset managers and pension funds, is expected to stay flat this year compared to last, according to data from PitchBook.
Institutional investors, which have traditionally made up private debt’s largest pool of money, are no longer a source of growth for the $1.7 trillion industry.
Money raised through funds targeted to institutional investors, including asset managers and pension funds, is expected to stay flat this year compared to last, according to data from PitchBook. With institutional interest plateauing, private credit investors have to hunt elsewhere for growth. These firms have turned to vehicles designed to appeal to retail investors and insurance companies, capital pools ripe for the taking.
Investment in traditional closed-end vehicles, also known as drawdown funds, has declined steadily since 2021 and is expected to stay flat, according to the PitchBook report, which looked at global private market fundraising in the second quarter of this year. With many central banks set to cut interest rates in the near future, the appeal of private debt, which is mostly floating-rate, has decreased, the report said.
Just 59 traditional funds focused on private debt closed in the first half of the year, down from 68 in the same period in 2023, according to PitchBook. Fundraising volume shrunk to $90.9 billion from $98.9 billion over the same period.
“You are starting to approach the limit of the traditional drawdown institutional end market,” Tim Clarke, one of the authors of the PitchBook report, said in an interview, adding a caveat that data around private credit is limited and can be unreliable, given the opacity of the product.
Some private credit firms are forming open-ended, evergreen vehicles, which provide more flexibility to retail investors. Investors can periodically withdraw or contribute new capital to evergreen funds.
A handful of the market’s largest players, including Apollo Global Management Inc., BlackRock Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s asset management division, are already looking to raise money from retail investors in the US. Goldman Sachs and Carlyle Group Inc. are also encroaching on the European market. Apollo is going one step further, breaking ground on a private credit-focused exchange-traded fund with State Street Corp.
Though insurance companies have become a well of capital for the private credit industry, some have moved away from participating in traditional drawdown funds. Some private credit funds have tapped insurer money by striking deals to manage their assets, like Blue Owl Capital Inc., which bought Kuvare Asset Management in July, taking control of $20 billion in assets under management. Other insurance firms are investing in private credit through separately managed accounts, special one-investor funds that offer lower fees and are touted as much more bespoke.
Non-traditional fund structures like evergreen vehicles also often have lower fees. Managers including KKR & Co. and Carlyle have even taken away the carry, a performance fee, on recent evergreen funds. There’s also considerable pressure for managers of business development companies, known as BDCs, to reduce fees.
As bitcoin mining undergoes major changes, the GCC region can have an important role in the transformation, which is being driven by a focus on renewable energy and new technology.
Abdumalik Mirakhmedov, executive president of GDA, one of the world’s largest bitcoin mining companies in terms of hash rate, says strong government support, an abundance of capital, and a commitment to sustainability are positioning the region as a growing force in the sector.
“Governments across the region are demonstrating enthusiastic support for the growth of bitcoin mining, recognizing its potential to drive broader sector development,” said Mirakhmedov, speaking from GDA’s Dubai office. “They are ramping up their green energy initiatives in a move that could propel the region to the forefront of sustainable bitcoin mining, and potentially secure a significant portion of the network’s hash rate.”
The UAE’s estimated 400 megawatts of bitcoin mining represent around four per cent of the global bitcoin mining hashrate, according to data from the Hashrate Index. The Oman government’s investment of more than $800 million in crypto-mining operations has also been widely reported.
“A common misconception about bitcoin mining is its purported dependence on fossil fuels and consequent environmental impact, but this outdated view no longer reflects reality,” said Mirakhmedov. “Current data shows that renewable energy sources now power more than 55 per cent of all bitcoin mining operations globally. Hydroelectricity, wind, and even captured methane gas have become go-to power sources for mining operations. This shift isn’t temporary, but indicative of a long-term trend, as renewable energy costs continue to decline, making them the obvious choice for miners worldwide,” he added.
Meanwhile, the adoption of advanced cooling technologies, such as liquid and immersion systems, promises to revolutionise operations, boosting energy efficiency and reducing costs. “As these technologies become more widespread, they’ll further enhance the sustainability of mining practices,” says Mirakhmedov.”
“While bitcoin mining strives to reduce its carbon footprint further, there are other benefits resulting from the industry’s ingenuity.
“In Sweden, for instance, the excess heat from mining rigs is being used to warm greenhouses and de-ice vehicles, turning what was once waste into a valuable resource. This kind of innovation will help secure the industry’s future, and the GCC region can play a big part in that.”
One of the world’s most experienced industrial-scale bitcoin mining companies, GDA operates 20 data centres across North America, South America, Europe, and Central Asia.
Jet fuel production in the U.S. increased from pre-pandemic levels to 1.9 million barrels per day at the beginning of August, an increase of 8% compared to 2023
Over the summer, crude oil refiners ramped up activity to keep up with increased demand while closely monitoring the hurricane season through November 30
As people across the United States hit the road and jumped on planes this summer, gasoline demand surged. In July, demand reached 9.4 million barrels per day, equivalent to 395 million gallons per day, its highest levels since 2019, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Strong consumption of oil coupled with the tightening of inventories could keep gasoline prices elevated for the remainder of the year.
Jet fuel production in the U.S. also soared from pre-pandemic levels to 1.9 million barrels per day at the beginning of August, an increase of 8% compared to the year prior. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoint passenger travel numbers from January through July 2024 showed an increase of 6.2% compared to the same period in 2023, signaling a swift recovery in the civil aviation sector.
Gasoline demand topped initial projections this year. The AAA projected 70.9 million individuals will have traveled 50 or more miles from home over the summer, an increase of 5% compared to 2023. Meanwhile, Labor Day domestic travel bookings were up 9% over 2023, according to AAA.
In efforts to meet the higher demand for air travel, industry trade organization Airlines for America projected that U.S. carriers would provide an additional 26,000 scheduled flights per day, up nearly 1,400 a day from the summer of 2023. In July, North American carriers saw a 4.9% year-on-year increase in demand over the same period in 2023, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Despite the hurricane season getting off to an early start, gasoline prices in the Gulf Coast remained steady after Beryl, a Category 1 storm, reached landfall in Texas on July 8.
The price of gasoline is predominantly underpinned by crude oil, as it is the primary driver, accounting for approximately 60% of the cost. The remaining 40% of the price is determined by refinery operations and distribution costs, and state and federal taxes. Front-month RBOB Gasoline futures prices averaged $2.31 per gallon in August 2024, $0.51 cents per gallon lower than they were during the same period a year prior. Gasoline prices in 2024 are expected to remain relatively flat with slower but consistent economic growth, according to the EIA.
Although jet fuel is a smaller component of the refined product mix than gasoline or other distillate fuel products, it has a significant impact on the economy. All civil aviation activity contributes about 1.3% of GDP, $535 billion in economic activity and 2.6 million jobs, according to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Fuel is one of the largest, most variable expenses for airlines and represents approximately 15-20% of costs that impact the price of a passenger ticket. According to the most recent data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the average price of a domestic airfare was $388 in Q1 2024 compared to $382 in Q1 2023.
Over the summer, refiners ramped up activity to keep up with increased demand while closely monitoring the hurricane season from June 1 to November 30, which could affect supply and contribute to price volatility in the future.
U.S. crude oil refiners expect to operate at approximately 90% of their combined processing capacity in the third quarter of this year. The largest U.S. refiner, Marathon Petroleum (MPC), said in August, it ran its refineries at 97% of their combined 3 million barrel-per-day capacity during the second quarter, compared to 82% in the first quarter, after their largest planned maintenance quarter in history. Marathon is positioned to run refineries at 90%, and Valero (VLO) at 92% of combined capacity in the third quarter.
In line with seasonal norms, gasoline inventories rose in the winter of 2023 in anticipation of the summer peak driving demand. Inventories took a steeper dive during the peak driving season this summer, decreasing by 3.7 million barrels to 223.8 million barrels at the end of July, 3% below the five-year average.
As gasoline transitions into the fall period, it could also be a key factor in campaigns during the upcoming U.S. election cycle. Given the upcoming uncertainty, demand for risk management in both jet fuel and gasoline markets is likely to remain strong.
Italy’s power utility Enel has become the latest international energy investor to scrap plans for participating in the energy transition of Vietnam.
According to unnamed sources who spoke to Reuters, Enel has decided to exit Vietnam’s wind and solar markets, with one source attributing the move to a broader company reorganization.
Earlier this year, Norway’s Equinor scrapped plans to invest in offshore wind in Vietnam. Wind turbine major Orsted also revised its plans for Vietnam, pausing a large-scale offshore development amid regulatory challenges.
Enel two years ago announced plans to invest in the construction of up to 6 GW of wind and solar capacity in Vietnam. The company, through its arm Enel Green Power, is one of the biggest wind and solar operators in the world with 64 GW of capacity. At the time it highlighted Vietnam’s considerable potential in wind and solar generation.
Indeed, Vietnam enjoys strong winds and shallow waters but at the same time, it appears to have a complicated grid connection mechanism, which has meant that a lot of completed wind and solar projects are yet to start generating because they need to be connected to the grid first.
This is rather unfortunate because Vietnam is suffering from tight energy supplies that earlier this year swung into a shortage, causing rolling blackouts. At the same time, the country has considerable ambitions in transition energy, planning to double its installed generation capacity by 2030. That capacity currently stands at some 80 GW. About a fifth of the doubled capacity should be wind turbines, per plans.
Yet it is wind power that is one of the biggest problems in Vietnam. According to Reuters, the government has yet to draft regulations for the development of offshore wind power projects and it also has to finalize negotiations on the price that it would undertake to pay to wind power project operators.
Inflationary pressures in Hungary eased in August. The latest data was better than expected when compared to the market consensus. Year-on-year inflation fell from 4.1% to 3.4% in August. The further moderation in inflation was partly due to the stagnation of the average price level on a monthly basis (MoM) and the high base from last year. Therefore, the strong monthly increase in July seems to have been an exception, as the stagnation in the monthly inflation rate seen in previous months has returned.
In recent months, inflation has been contained mainly by favourable developments in items outside the core inflation basket, and in August the main items of core inflation also turned more favourable. How long this will last remains to be seen, but the inflation picture is certainly improving.
Food prices did not continue to rise in August (0.0% MoM) after a surge in July (0.6% MoM), meaning that the removal of price caps and the end of mandatory in-store discounts appear to have led to a one-off repricing rather than a sustained, trend-like price increase. As a result, food inflation slowed to 2.4% YoY.
Fuel prices fell sharply in August (-0.8% MoM), following a sharp rise in July, which was widely expected. The contribution to the turnaround in inflation is therefore also significant. On the other hand, the 0.1% monthly fall in household energy is clearly a surprise, contrary to the expected rise.
Prices of durable goods rose by 0.1% on a monthly basis, in line with the global easing of pressure on these items due to lack of demand. At the same time, the price of clothing and footwear fell by 1.3% MoM, the largest fall since January.
Services should also be included among the items improving the short-term inflation picture. On a monthly basis, the increase was only 0.4%. However, due to an exceptionally low base last August, the year-on-year figure rose to 9.5%. This means that services inflation accounts for 73% of headline inflation.
Contrary to expectations, the core inflation indicator did not rise but fell slightly compared with July. The 0.3% month-on-month increase is close to the inflation target on an annualised basis. With this moderated repricing of the core basket, year-on-year core inflation was 4.63%, an improvement of 0.04ppt on the previous month. So the slowdown was just enough to help reduce the indicator due to rounding to one decimal place.
The good news continues with the National Bank of Hungary's measure of sticky price inflation, which remained unchanged at 5.8% year-on-year in August. Moreover, an important short-term indicator, the three-month annualised core inflation measure (3M/3M saar), has declined. Therefore, we can conclude that several indicators signal that the underlying inflation picture is at least stabilising, although there is still work to be done from a monetary policy perspective.
Looking ahead, we expect next month's inflation to be broadly similar to today's, with perhaps some moderation. Thereafter, however, the year-on-year rate could rise more sharply due to the low base. From October it could temporarily exceed 4% again. Looking at current inflation trends, we see the rate of price increases creeping back up to 4.8% by December 2024. This implies a significant downward revision on our part (from the 5.0-5.5% forecast range).
Given today's services inflation and the August fiscal data, we believe that the Hungarian economy could perform even more weakly in the second half of this year than previously expected. This will limit the ability of companies to reprice meaningfully, even in an environment where they face significant cost increases.
In the short term, therefore, inflationary pressures from the domestic demand side are unlikely to be significant. At the same time, inflationary risks are rising next year: the expected pick-up in consumption, continued dynamic wage growth (especially after a possible further significant increase in the minimum wage in 2025) and the government's recent tax measures are likely to be passed on to consumers in the form of price increases next year. We expect average price increases of 3.8% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025.
From a Hungarian monetary policy perspective, the incoming inflation data opens the door for a 25bp rate cut in September. A 50bp cut by the Fed (our low-conviction base case) and a dovish tone from the ECB (alongside its 0.25ppt rate cut) would reinforce this call.
On the other hand, "only" a 25bp cut by the Fed and a hawkish message from the ECB that the September cut will certainly not be followed by another one in October would make the decision between a hold and a 25bp cut in Hungary a bit more nuanced.
Ultimately, the EUR/HUF exchange rate could be the deciding factor and here the latest negative news (renewed and escalating disharmony between the government and the National Bank of Hungary) increases the country’s risk premium, which is also a key factor in the careful, patient and now stability-oriented monetary policy.
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