Oil Rises In Relief Rally As Opec+ Agrees Modest Production Hike

Summary:

Oil gained after OPEC+ agreed to raise production by a modest amount, staving off traders’ fears of a super-sized increase.

Brent rose above $65 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was near $61. At a meeting on Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners including Russia backed a 137,000-barrel-a-day increment, well below some of the possible figures reported before the decision.

The move “is clearly on the light side of expectations,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group, who attributed the price gain to traders — who’d readied for a larger hike — adjusting tactical positions. The OPEC+ increase “will do no favors to the notion of an oversupplied market in 2026, and as such the upside in this rally should be capped,” he said.

Crude has declined this year — including an 8% drop last week — on concern that worldwide supplies are set to top demand. The International Energy Agency has forecast a record annual surplus for 2026, and many Wall Street banks have predicted lower prices in the coming months as balances weaken.

The group’s latest decision came despite an earlier difference of position between co-leaders Saudi and Russia. Ahead of the session, which lasted just nine minutes, Moscow had favored an adjustment that would help to defend prices, according to two people. Still, Riyadh — more mindful of market share — indicated it supported a larger addition, one of the people said.

OPEC+ has been progressively unwinding supply restraints this year in a bid to reclaim market share from drillers outside the alliance. The group initially agreed to bring back a 2.2-million-barrel-a-day tranche of halted output in stages, and then followed up by tackling another layer of curbed production. Still, actual increases in output have lagged behind headline figures.

“Balances have shifted decisively into surplus after a period of tightness that began in mid-2024 through 2025,” said Susan Bell, an analyst at Rystad Energy AS. “Supply is only moving in one direction, and with demand weakening, the remainder of 2025 will be a one-two punch for crude prices.”

Trading in early stages of the session was busier than usual, with about 2,000 lots each of Brent and WTI traded across the curve in the first five minutes.

Source: Theedgemarkets

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Daniel Carter

Central Bank

New Zealand's central bank said former governor Adrian Orr will be paid a total of NZ$1.18 million ($690,000) for the nine months through March, when he resigned.

Orr's total remuneration for the period July 1 through March 31 was NZ$766,180 and he will also receive a restraint-of-trade payment of NZ$416,120, the Reserve Bank said in its 2025 Annual Report Monday in Wellington. The restraint-of-trade, or non-compete payment is due to be made this month, conditional on the terms being met, it said.

“Adrian's terms and conditions of appointment as governor, agreed at the time of his appointment, included a restraint-of-trade period for six months, offset against any income he earns,” an RBNZ spokesperson told Bloomberg News. “This is to protect confidential information he was privy to as Governor.”

Orr resigned on March 5 with three years left in his second five-year term. It took the RBNZ three months to explain that Orr left because of his disappointment with new funding arrangements with the government, and even longer to disclose there had been issues between him and the board over his conduct.

The resulting controversy drew the ire of Finance Minister Nicola Willis. RBNZ board chair Neil Quigley resigned in August.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Daniel Carter

Political

● Senate to vote on Democratic and Republican shutdown plans.

● Democrats demand healthcare subsidies in funding package.

● Trump freezes funds for Democratic states, threatens more federal job cuts.

The U.S. Senate will vote again on Friday on dueling Democratic and Republican plans to end a government shutdown now entering its third day, though there is no sign that either plan will win passage.

Lawmakers do not appear to have made any headway toward a deal that would allow them to resume government funding, and Democrats and Republicans have spent the past several days blaming each other for their failure to keep the government funded beyond October 1, the start of the fiscal year.

Democrats say any funding package must also expand pandemic-era healthcare subsidies due to expire at the end of December, while Republicans say that issue should be dealt with separately.

U.S. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has frozen billions of dollars earmarked for Democratic-leaning states and threatened to fire more federal workers, on top of the 300,000 he will have forced out by the end of the year. His budget chief, Russ Vought, has asked federal agencies to draw up plans to lay off those whose work is not aligned with the administration's priorities.

The shutdown, the 15th since 1981, has suspended scientific research, economic data reports, financial regulation, and a wide range of other activities. Pay has been suspended for roughly 2 million federal workers, though troops, airport security screeners, and others deemed "essential" must still report to work.

A prolonged shutdown could disrupt air travel, food aid for millions of Americans, and force federal courts to close. Federal workers would miss their first paycheck in mid-October if the standoff is not resolved by then.

The longest shutdown lasted 35 days in 2018-2019, during Trump's first term in office.

The Senate has three times already rejected a Republican plan, which would fund the government through November 21, and a Democratic alternative that would also bolster the expiring health subsidies. The chamber will vote on both of those plans again on Friday.

Republicans control both chambers of Congress, but they need at least seven Democratic votes to advance spending legislation in the Senate.

A group of senators from both parties say they have been exploring a compromise. But some Democrats say they do not trust Republicans to honor any agreement that would first reopen the government and then tackle the healthcare subsidies, which were passed as part of a 2021 Democratic COVID relief package and now help 24 million Americans pay for coverage.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Soybeans: From Trade Commodity to Diplomatic Weapon

When the U.S. and China sit down for their fifth round of negotiations in late October, many expect discussions to focus on technology, rare earths, and the fate of TikTok. Yet one of the most politically sensitive issues now resurfacing is far more down-to-earth: soybeans.

China, the world’s largest soybean importer, has yet to purchase a single U.S. shipment in the new crop year a stark contrast to last year when the U.S. accounted for roughly 20% of Beijing’s soybean imports. According to Nomura chief economist Lu Ding, China has deliberately diversified its supply chains, turning to South America for cheaper and more politically neutral sources. This strategic pivot gives Beijing leverage in its negotiations with Washington, effectively turning U.S. farmers into collateral damage in a geopolitical standoff.

For American agriculture especially in the Midwest this represents a severe blow. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged that domestic storage facilities are nearing capacity amid bumper harvests and collapsing Chinese demand. He accused Beijing of using U.S. farmers as “bargaining chips” in the broader tariff dispute. Meanwhile, Senator John Hoeven of North Dakota, one of the country’s top soybean-producing states, warned that China is intentionally redirecting purchases to South America to tighten economic pressure ahead of renewed trade talks.

Political Pressure in Washington and Strategic Calculations in Beijing

Facing backlash from farm states crucial to his political base, President Trump announced plans for a new agricultural support package, funded partly by tariff revenue. In a recent Truth Social post, he emphasized his “strong support for soybean farmers,” accusing China of halting purchases “purely for negotiation purposes.”

The dispute comes as a temporary tariff truce between the two countries set to expire on November 10 hangs in the balance. During the previous round of talks in London, Washington agreed to ease certain technology export restrictions, while Beijing promised to accelerate rare earth exports vital for the U.S. defense and electric vehicle industries.

Now, soybeans have joined rare earths and TikTok as bargaining chips in a widening web of economic interdependence. Analysts see the soybean issue as part of Beijing’s broader strategy: leveraging agricultural and resource dependencies to push back against U.S. tariffs and export controls.

Beyond Agriculture: A Complex Web of Strategic Interdependence

Beijing’s use of soybean imports as diplomatic leverage mirrors its tactics with rare earth exports. By curbing purchases, China not only exerts pressure on American farmers a politically influential constituency but also signals that it can weaponize trade dependencies across multiple sectors.

Meanwhile, Washington is juggling multiple priorities: managing technology decoupling, securing critical minerals, and protecting domestic industries, all while preventing rural economic distress.

As Trump and Xi prepare to meet in South Korea, the scope of the U.S.–China conflict has expanded far beyond tariffs and technology. The soybean once a symbol of mutually beneficial trade now epitomizes a new phase of strategic competition, where food, technology, and resources are all tools of geopolitical influence.

The outcome of this summit may determine whether the two economic giants move toward détente or stumble into a deeper, more complex trade confrontation that reshapes global supply chains once again.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Commodity

A Strategic Move Amid a Global Gold Boom

Indonesia’s Merdeka Copper Gold has inaugurated the Pani gold mine — a massive venture poised to elevate the country’s standing in global gold production. The mine, located in North Sulawesi, is designed to process 7 million tons of ore annually, yielding approximately 4 tons of gold per year. With proven reserves around 200 tons, Pani is expected to operate well into the next decade, aligning with Indonesia’s strategic ambitions to expand its footprint in the precious metals sector.

Merdeka Gold Resources, a subsidiary overseeing operations, was listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange on September 23. The company raised 4.66 trillion rupiah (about USD 280 million) through a 10% public offering, which will fund capacity expansion and technology upgrades to enhance extraction efficiency and sustainability.

Rising Gold Prices Fuel National and Investor Enthusiasm

The mine’s launch coincides with a domestic gold frenzy. Prices from state-run miner Aneka Tambang (Antam) surged to a record 2.23 million rupiah per gram on October 2 — a sharp increase driven by global economic uncertainty, inflationary pressure, and heightened geopolitical risk. Gold’s status as a safe-haven asset has led to a surge in both retail and institutional demand.

Antam’s CEO, Achmad Ardianto, reported that gold sales are projected to reach 45 tons in 2025, up from 43 tons in 2024, with imports of roughly 30 tons already completed to meet soaring domestic demand.

Indonesia’s Expanding Role in the Global Gold Market

Ranked eighth worldwide in gold production, Indonesia trails only China in Asia but continues to close the gap through aggressive investment in mining infrastructure. The Pani project is expected to boost export revenues, attract foreign capital, and provide significant employment opportunities in the North Sulawesi region.

Beyond economic benefits, the expansion underscores a broader shift: as global gold prices hover near historic peaks amid geopolitical and financial uncertainty, resource-rich emerging economies like Indonesia are capitalizing on the moment.

The Pani mine’s debut reflects both strategic foresight and a timely alignment with global market dynamics. As investors worldwide flock to gold for stability, Indonesia is positioning itself not just as a producer — but as a vital pillar in the evolving architecture of the international gold economy.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Commodity

A Market Overshadowed by Politics and Uncertainty

Global oil prices have been trending downward in recent months, yet analysts warn that this apparent calm hides deeper structural risks. According to experts interviewed by Russia’s Izvestia, geopolitics rather than purely economic fundamentals remains the decisive factor driving market volatility in 2025.

Tamara Safonova, Associate Professor at the Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), highlights three interrelated forces that will keep oil prices under geopolitical pressure in the coming months.First, the ongoing trade wars continue to disrupt global supply chains, affecting transportation demand and fuel consumption.Second, production and export restrictions whether through sanctions or self-imposed quotas distort supply dynamics.Third, nations are prioritizing resource accumulation to secure domestic markets, reducing available exports and intensifying competition.

New Flashpoints Complicating the Energy Map

Although investors have become less reactive to Middle Eastern developments than they were a year ago, regional tensions persist. Iran’s unresolved nuclear program, Israel’s escalating airstrikes near Qatar, and rising political instability in Venezuela all add layers of uncertainty to the global supply outlook.

Meanwhile, Russia still under extensive Western sanctions appears to be maintaining export flows. Analysts from Nezavisimaya Gazeta note that Moscow has effectively adapted to sanctions pressure by building a resilient shadow fleet and alternative payment systems.

Alexander Firanchuk, Senior Researcher at the Gaidar Institute, explains that shipping restrictions now have “very limited impact” on Russian export revenue. While they increase logistical costs, they no longer prevent the movement of oil. Over the past three years, Russia has developed efficient mechanisms to keep crude flowing to key buyers.

Sergey Kaufman of Finam echoes this, noting that major customers like China and India are unlikely to reduce purchases. For Beijing, still entangled in a prolonged trade war with the U.S., Western sanctions hold little weight. For New Delhi, Russian oil remains too cost-effective to abandon, even amid new U.S. tariff measures.

The Silent Drivers Beneath the Price Charts

In essence, while oil benchmarks such as Brent and WTI show modest declines, the underlying market remains geopolitically charged. Every regional flare-up from the Persian Gulf to Latin America carries the potential to shift trade routes, alter OPEC+ strategies, and reshape long-term energy alliances.

The geopolitical web now linking Russia, China, India, and the Middle East has effectively redefined the oil trade, prioritizing strategic partnerships over market equilibrium.

As 2025 unfolds, analysts agree on one point: oil prices are no longer merely a reflection of supply and demand, but a mirror of global power rivalries. Even in a period of nominal price stability, the world’s most vital commodity remains hostage to political maneuvering ensuring that every headline, not just every barrel, continues to move the market.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

A Fundamental Shift in How the World Measures Prosperity

For decades, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has stood as the ultimate measure of progress. Yet, economists and global institutions such as the United Nations are increasingly recognizing its limits. GDP can grow even when living standards stagnate, inequality widens, and natural resources deplete.

According to the UN Human Development Report 2025, global human development is slowing to its weakest pace since 1990 a symptom of the structural failure of GDP-driven growth. As a result, policymakers are calling for a new prosperity calculus that redefines success not by economic volume but by opportunity, resilience, fairness, and sustainability.

From “Emerging” to “Shaping”: The Global South’s Economic Momentum

The world is witnessing a major power shift. According to the IMF World Economic Outlook 2025, emerging and developing economies are projected to grow 3.7%, nearly triple the 1.4% growth rate of advanced economies. This isn’t just a cyclical difference it signals a structural rebalancing of the global economy.

In West Asia, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations control $4.2 trillion in sovereign assets and are growing their non-oil GDP by over 4% annually, diversifying into tech and renewables.

In India, now the world’s most populous country, the IMF expects it to contribute 16% of global GDP growth between 2023 and 2028. With a 400 million-strong middle class, projected to double by 2030, India is becoming a key driver of global consumption and innovation.

Across Africa, home to 2.5 billion people by 2050, over 60% under 25, the continent is becoming the youngest labor force in human history. It also boasts the world’s highest entrepreneurship rate with over one in five adults engaged in startups.

Innovation Flows Both Ways: The South as a Source of Change

If the 20th century saw innovation flow from the North outward, the 21st century is witnessing the opposite. Kenya’s M-Pesa has revolutionized mobile finance, India’s telehealth platforms are influencing global healthcare models, and the UAE’s digital governance systems are among the world’s most advanced.

Innovation is no longer one-directional it’s polycentric. The nations of the Global South are not imitating old models but inventing new ones tailored to their own social, cultural, and ecological realities.

A Multipolar World: People at the Core, Sustainability as the Foundation

In this new global structure, two forces define long-term prosperity: human capital and digital infrastructure. Nations that invest in young, entrepreneurial populations and leverage technology to build sustainable systems will lead the next century.

Challenges remain venture capital still flows disproportionately to Silicon Valley instead of Nairobi or Riyadh, and global trade barriers persist. Yet, the traditional divide between “developed” and “developing” nations is dissolving.

A New Era for the Global South

From Riyadh to Bangalore, from Abu Dhabi to Nairobi, a generation of leaders and innovators is reshaping what prosperity means. Their mission goes beyond economic expansion they’re building an economy with a soul, where growth is measured in human dignity, opportunity, and environmental harmony.

The new era has begun. The Global South is no longer a follower but a co-architect of the 21st century, crafting a global economy where people and the planet thrive together.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites