News
Analysis
7x24
Quotes
Economic Calendar
Video
Data
- Names
- Latest
- Prev
Latest Views
Latest Views
Trending Topics
To quickly learn market dynamics and follow market focuses in 15 min.
In the world of mankind, there will not be a statement without any position, nor a remark without any purpose.
Inflation, exchange rates, and the economy shape the policy decisions of central banks; the attitudes and words of central bank officials also influence the actions of market traders.
Money makes the world go round and currency is a permanent commodity. The forex market is full of surprises and expectations.
Top Columnists
Hi there! Are you ready to get involved into the financial world?
The latest breaking news and the global financial events.
I have 5 years of experience in financial analysis, especially in aspects of macro developments and medium and long-term trend judgment. My focus is maily on the developments of the Middle East, emerging markets, coal, wheat and other agricultural products.
BeingTrader chief Trading Coach & Speaker, 8+ years of experience in the forex market trading mainly XAUUSD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Crude Oil. A confident trader and analyst who aims to explore various opportunities and guide investors in the market. As an analyst I am looking to enhance the trader’s experience by supporting them with sufficient data and signals.
Market Trend
Popular Indicators
Latest Update
How to Make Forecasts with Pre-trained Machine Learning Models?
Curious about my trading success with a self-trained Decision Tree model on US stocks? Stay tuned for valuable insights and a test script of the strategy for your reference!
Full Course: Optimize Parameters for Machine Learning Model that Gives a Sharpe Ratio 5% +
Today, we delve into how to optimize machine learning model parameters to triple your invested capital and achieve an impressive Sharpe ratio of 5%+ in just 350 trades.
Full Course: Begin Mining in 10 Minutes
Think you need a super-powered computer to mine crypto? Not at all! Your trusty home computer can do the job just fine. I'll show you how to start mining from the comfort of your own home.
Full Course: How to Auto-Generate Triangle Patterns
Triangle patterns serve as crucial reference signals within the realm of trading, and today I am thrilled to unveil a remarkably efficient tool that expedites the detection of trading signals.
Business
White Label
Data API
Web Plug-ins
Tools
Awards
View All
No data
Market Trend
Popular Indicators
Latest Update
How to Make Forecasts with Pre-trained Machine Learning Models?
Curious about my trading success with a self-trained Decision Tree model on US stocks? Stay tuned for valuable insights and a test script of the strategy for your reference!
Full Course: Optimize Parameters for Machine Learning Model that Gives a Sharpe Ratio 5% +
Today, we delve into how to optimize machine learning model parameters to triple your invested capital and achieve an impressive Sharpe ratio of 5%+ in just 350 trades.
Full Course: Begin Mining in 10 Minutes
Think you need a super-powered computer to mine crypto? Not at all! Your trusty home computer can do the job just fine. I'll show you how to start mining from the comfort of your own home.
Full Course: How to Auto-Generate Triangle Patterns
Triangle patterns serve as crucial reference signals within the realm of trading, and today I am thrilled to unveil a remarkably efficient tool that expedites the detection of trading signals.
Business
White Label
Data API
Web Plug-ins
Tools
Awards
Reminders Temporarily Unavailable
Rules for using redeem codes:
1. The activated redeem code cannot be used again
2. Your redeem code becomes invalid if it has expired
FastBull Membership Privileges
Quick access to 7x24
Quick access to more editor-selected real-time news
Follow more assets
You can add more assets to your watchlist to follow more real-time quotes.
More comprehensive macro data and economic indicators
More comprehensive historical data on indicators to help analyze macro markets
Inflation “remained well above” the Fed’s 2% target, the minutes said. That came with labor markets that “remained very tight, contributing to continuing upward pressures on wages and prices.”
NEW YORK (Feb 23): Global equities and U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Wednesday after minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting showed that officials favored a moderation in the pace of interest rate hikes as inflation begins to recede.
A solid majority of Fed policy makers agreed that it was appropriate for the central bank to raise rates by 25 basis points, even as they reiterated that the inflation outlook would keep driving further rate actions, the minutes showed. Only a few officials supported a rate hike of 50 basis points.
The minutes from the Jan. 31 to Feb. 1 meeting preceded recent strong economic data that demonstrated the resilience of the U.S. economy and heightened worries of a longer rate-tightening cycle.
"The minutes are a little bit outdated because of the data that came out after the Fed discussion and it's not as important as people think," said Moustapha Mounah, portfolio manager at James Investments in Dayton, Ohio.
The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 50 countries, was down 0.51%. European stocks shed 0.33%.
Wall Street stocks finished a choppy session lower following the Fed's minutes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.26% to 33,045.09, the S&P 500 lost 0.16% to 3,991.05 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.13% to 11,507.07.
U.S. Treasury yields retreated after surging to three-month highs. Benchmark 10-year yields made gains but were still lower at 3.9175% after the release of the minutes.
"The bond market has already priced in more rate hikes but the stock market hasn't repriced to reflect all of the movement in the rates," Mounah added.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a non-voting member of the Fed's rate-setting committee this year, on Wednesday reiterated his view that a Fed policy rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.5% would be adequate to bring inflation toward the central bank's 2% goal.
The U.S. Treasury yield curve that measures the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, remained deeply inverted at minus 77.40 basis points.
"If the most hawkish guy, who is a non-voting member, is at a 75 basis point hike, then maybe the consensus is 50 basis points and that is a little lower than the market," said Thomas Hayes, chairman at Great Hill Capital in New York.
The U.S. dollar gained due to the unexpected strength of the American economy revealed in recent economic data, notwithstanding interest rate hikes by the Fed. The dollar index rose 0.374%, while the euro was down 0.42% to $1.0601.
Oil prices fell 2% on growing concerns over oil demand as the Fed aims to keep hiking rates to reduce surging consumer prices. Brent crude futures settled 3% lower at $80.60 per barrel. The West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) was down 3% to end at $74.05 a barrel.
Gold prices fell as the U.S. dollar gained. Spot gold dropped 0.5% to $1,825.60 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures fell 0.43% to $1,825.10 an ounce.
The rise in US market rates coincides with a remarkable 1% rise in the 2yr breakeven
We frequently noted in recent months how remarkably low the US 2yr breakeven inflation was. It got down to the 2% area in September last year, and was there again in mid-January this year. Remember, a 2% breakeven means inflation would have to get below that, well below, in order to average 2% over a two-year period. But that's where we were. Well no more, as we are now at 3%. That's a whole different picture for inflation in the coming quarters.
So, there has been a remarkable 1% rise in the 2yr breakeven in a matter of four weeks. And there has been no material fall in the 2yr real yield, which remains in the 1.85% area. It fits with the market moves of the past few weeks, which has seen the 10yr move up from 3.4% to now over 3.9%. We had expected something like this, as the curve was far too inverted, and the back end was prematurely discounting interest rate cuts.
The back end is being far more reactive to the front-end fears that the Fed is not done till they are actually done
In this respect we had been watching the spread from 6mth Libor to the 10yr Treasury yield. That got down to an extreme of 1.8%. That spread which had the 10yr Treasury yield at 1.8% through the 6mth rate had never been as stretched as that before in modern times. Something had to give, and we called for 10yr yields to rise. They have, and the spread is now into 1.4%. It's still elevated, but now the back end is being far more reactive to the front-end fears that the Fed is not done till they are actually done.
We are likely to see some buying into the market on the approach of 4% on the 10yr. Asset managers will look at a 4% handle as a good level. And liability managers will use these elevated 5-10yr fixed rates to do some swapping to floating for long term positive cumualtive carry. That should help to mute any big break above 4%. The market is not in a mood to do so though, and we'd likely need to see some stability before the flows really come in.
As we noted some weeks back, a popular theme in this environment has been for be long the ultra front end; in money market funds earnings a rolling 4% to 5% on zero risk, and we noted flows into this space. That's been a good idea so far, but can be balanced up now by morphing some flows into longer duration product, while still holding a chunk of front end risk free exposure.
The rise in 2Y nominal yields is matched by higher inflation expectations
PMIs are upbeat but market sentiment is souring
Markets are dusting off the 2022 ‘sell everything’ playbook as government bonds are printing new highs for the year, and cracks are starting to appear in risk assets. The direction of travel for rates is easier to understand. Better-than-expected PMIs across Europe and the US added to the impression that the loss of economic momentum expected at the end of 2022 is proving much more benign than foreseen at the time. Note that PMIs are still flirting with the 50 level indicating anaemic expansion, but this was enough to provide a further boost to central bank tightening expectations, especially with wage pressure and higher selling prices being highlighted for the service sector.
Markets are dusting off the 2022 ‘sell everything’ playbook
Nowhere was the surprise as clear as in UK PMIs. After months of doom and gloom, the survey painted an upbeat picture, and cast a long shadow on hopes that the Bank of England’s hiking cycle is coming to an end. Our expectation is that one more 25bp hike will be delivered at the March meeting. The market is now pricing two full hikes in March and May, and a 50% chance of a third one in June. Our economics team has argued that inflation (softer than expected in the last report) and employment (stronger) are more important in dictating the next policy steps but, in any case, there will be one more release of each before the next BoE meeting.
Higher core rates are starting to impact higher beta fixed income
Markets set to look past less hawkish FOMC minutes
Treasuries are going into tonight’s release of the February FOMC minutes at their highest yield level this year… and after touching their lowest level the day after that same meeting. In other words, information processed by the market since the February FOMC meeting triggered over 50bp repricing higher in 10Y yields (for the 2Y it’s closer to 60bp). In this light it is fair to say that the minutes are not just three weeks old, they’re also 50bp old.
We struggle to see markets coming around to that disinflationary view
We view the risks around this release as balanced. On the one hand, some subsequent Fed comments suggested that a couple of members may have made the case for a 50bp hike, instead of the 25bp it delivered. On the other hand, Powell’s less hawkish tone than in previous meetings may well be a reflection of the broader mood on the committee. The repeated focus on disinflation, in particular, was taken as a cue by the market that the Fed thinks it has made sufficient progress on its fight against inflation to stop hikes soon. We struggle to see markets coming around to that disinflationary view even if it was expressed that clearly in the minutes. The curve is now pricing three more 25bp hike, which implies the hiking cycle ending in June.
USD rates are going into the February FOMC minutes with much more hawkish expectations
Today’s events and market view
The delayed January inflation report for Germany published this morning saw no upward revision to the provisional number published earlier this month, but it showed core inflation accelerating from 5.2% annualised in December to 5.6% in January.
The better-than-expected PMIs across Europe in February should also be reflected in Germany’s Ifo published today despite a lacklustre reading in Germany’s manufacturing PMI. In any case, we think the bar is high to douse the increasingly hawkish pricing in euro rates.
In bond supply, Italy is due to sell inflation-linked as well as 2Y bonds. Germany will also add to this with a 10Y auction.
The US data calendar is pretty light but the Fed will release the minutes of the February FOMC meeting.
The risk of loss in trading financial assets such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs or crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.
No consideration to invest should be made without thoroughly conduct your own due diligence, or consult with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you, since we have not known your financial condition and investment needs. It is possible that our financial information might have latency or contains inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your transactions and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital lost.
Without getting the permission from the website, you are not allow to copy the website graphics, texts, or trade marks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belongs to its providers and exchange merchants.