ECB’s Muller Warns Chinese Export Curbs Could Fuel Inflation

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Five days after historic floods that killed at least 66 people and affected 100,000 homes, Mexico is still scrambling to get help to the worst-hit communities and locate 75 missing people amid criticism of the government’s handling of the crisis.After a year of meteoric approval ratings, the disaster is a test for Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has encountered rare hostile crowds and heckling on visits to affected areas.

The disaster began when torrential rains in the central and eastern parts of the country set off landslides, caused rivers to overflow and bridges to collapse. Whole streets were washed away.Antonio Ocaranza, a political analyst based in Mexico City, said that while he has been impressed by Sheinbaum's willingness to be on the ground during the recovery, it belies a bigger problem."There is a problem of competence in the initial reaction to the tragedy," he said, adding that officials were slow in providing necessary machinery to some areas.

SCRAPPING OF DISASTER FUND

The disaster has also fueled questions about the government’s reliance on the military to handle a growing list of responsibilities, from managing airports to constructing major infrastructure projects and distributing disaster relief.Sheinbaum’s predecessor and political mentor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, spearheaded the elimination of the country’s Natural Disaster Fund (Fonden), saying it was beset by corruption. Sheinbaum defended that decision, saying on Tuesday that “defending Fonden is like defending corruption.”

But the dismantling of Fonden has raised questions of where her government will find the money needed for the response.She said the federal government has 19 billion pesos ($1.03 billion) available for emergencies, of which around 3 billion pesos have been used. “There are sufficient resources to address the emergency.”On Wednesday, in the state of San Luis Potosi, Sheinbaum said government aid would be given in two stages: cleanup, which she said would happen next week, followed by “support” depending on the damage suffered by each home. After that, the government would help with roads and drainage.

In 2023, following the devastating Hurricane Otis in the resort town of Acapulco, the government gave cash transfers of between $400 and $3,250 per affected household depending on the level of damage.Deputy Gibran Ramirez of the opposition center-left Citizens’ Movement party criticized the government’s response to the latest disaster as unprepared and “lamentable.”“There’s no capacity to respond. It’s always the same response - improvisation,” he said. “And just like in Guerrero after Hurricane Otis, the government will make direct cash transfers to calm the social anger.”

FLOODS CAME WITHOUT WARNING

The floods largely caught the government flat-footed. “There were no scientific or meteorological conditions that could have indicated to us that the rainfall would be of this magnitude,” Sheinbaum told reporters on Monday, adding that the government had been focused on two separate storms off the Pacific coast.The torrential rains off the Gulf Coast came toward the end of the rainy season, battering land and bursting rivers that had already been soaked by months of rain. The worst-affected states are Veracruz, Hidalgo and San Luis Potosi.

On Sunday, Sheinbaum confronted an angry crowd of people searching for their relatives in the southeastern state of Veracruz, where at least 29 people have died. Some yelled that they had been in the zone for three days looking while others pushed photos of missing people at her.Struggling to make herself heard, Sheinbaum said: “Everyone will be attended to. We are not going to hide anything.”

Source: TradingView

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocated for accelerated interest rate cuts due to rising US-China trade tensions at CNBC's event on October 16, 2025.

His remarks highlight looming economic risks and potential policy shifts, significantly affecting market sentiment and cryptocurrency trends.

Fed Signals Urgent Rate Cuts Amid Growing Trade Tensions

Stephen Miran highlighted increased uncertainty due to trade tensions, stating it’s now crucial to shift US monetary policy to a more neutral stance. This call for action reflects the economic pressures from current geopolitical strains. "If you hit the economy with a shock when policy is very restrictive, the economy will react differently than it would if policy was not as restrictive… it's even more important now than a week ago, that we move quickly to a more neutral stance," said Miran.

As a consequence, the likelihood of further interest rate reductions is high, bolstering overall expectations of easing. This adjustment is driven by the elevated risk profile, suggesting a strategic pivot in monetary policy to alleviate economic stressors. Immediate implications revolve around mitigating potential shocks affecting market stability.

Market analysts note growing investor anticipation for rate cuts, leading to heightened volatility in financial markets. Key financial figures, including Jerome Powell, share Miran's sentiment, further signaling indications of imminent monetary policy alterations. Such consensus from top policymakers adds weight to Miran’s urgency.

Analysts from Coincu suggest that pushing towards a neutral policy could stabilize traditional markets while potentially impacting digital assets. Historical trends show that a dovish Federal Reserve often correlates with increased liquidity in cryptocurrencies, possibly propelling risk asset flows into sectors like DeFi and crypto staking. Enduring policy shifts give room for dynamic market adaptation.

Source: CryptoSlate

Russian forces have suffered over 300,000 casualties so far in 2025 and over 1 million since the war began.The Russian military is advancing across several axes of advance in Ukraine. Russia’s gains are not groundbreaking, but they are gains. Russian progress, however, does not come cheap. The Russian forces have suffered over 300,000 casualties so far in 2025 and over 1 million since the war began.

Russian Casualty Trends

According to the latest intelligence estimate by the British Ministry of Defence, the Russian forces have likely sustained approximately 332,000 casualties, including killed and wounded troops, so far in 2025. In comparison, Russia lost approximately 420,000 troops in 2024.According to the Ukrainian General Staff, an average of 950 Russian troops have been killed and wounded every day. This marks an increase from the reported Russian losses in August, when the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces lost an average of 931 troops killed and wounded every day. Moreover, since March, the Russian average daily casualties have been steadily decreasing.

“Russia’s decreased monthly casualty rate has been sustained at the same time as Russian forces have maintained a high operational tempo across the frontline, and Russia has continued to make incremental territorial gains,” the British Ministry of Defence concluded in its latest intelligence assessment.The most likely explanation for this decrease in casualties at a time of territorial progress is a change in tactics. It seems that Russian commanders are replacing mass infantry attacks with more sophisticated tactics that even verge on combined arms warfare.However, October seems to be particularly deadly for the Russian forces thus far. The Russian military has lost an average of over 1,000 troops killed or wounded in seven days.

Interesting Casualty Facts

Overall, the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces have suffered approximately 1,118,000 losses since Russia launched the large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

In over three years of fighting, the Russian forces have lost more than five times the initial invasion force, which numbered approximately 200,000 men. With a doubt, the Kremlin’s “special military operation,” at least in its initial conception, has failed. Russian military and intelligence officials expected a quick campaign that would last between three days and two weeks. Pre-invasion intelligence assessments estimated that the Ukrainian people would welcome the invading Russian troops with open arms and flowers. In reality, however, invading Russian troops were met with FIM-92 Stinger and FGM-148 Javelin missiles.

The month with the highest number of daily average losses is December 2024, when the Russian forces lost an average of 1,570 men killed and wounded every day. That is an absurdly high level of losses for a supposedly sophisticated military force. The month with the lowest losses is June 2022, when the Russian forces lost an average of 172 troops killed and wounded every day.

Overall, the Russian forces have lost an average of more than 1,000 men daily over the last 15 months. Moreover, in five out of those months, the Russian forces lost an average of over 1,300 troops. In comparison, a US Army or Marine Corps battalion has up to 1,000 men. Thus, the Russian military has been losing a battalion worth of troops every day for more than 15 months.In addition, the Russian forces have lost an average of more than 800 men daily for 23 months.

Source: The National Interest

Australia’s unemployment rate spiked unexpectedly to a near four-year high in September as more people went looking for work, while employment bounced only modestly, a weak reading that adds to the case for further cuts in interest rates.

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics out on Thursday showed net employment rose 14,900 in September from August, when it fell a revised 11,800. That was under market forecasts of a 20,000 gain, while full-time jobs edged up 8,700 after a steep drop the previous month.

The jobless rate jumped to 4.5%, the highest since November 2021, against forecasts of a rise to 4.3%, while the participation rate ticked up to 67.0%. Hours worked rose 0.5%, reversing a drop in August.

Source: Investing

Santos Ltd. trimmed its natural gas production outlook, citing a software failure that stalled a key export project and the impact from floodwaters in Australia.The major supplier of LNG to buyers in Asia expects output of 89 million to 91 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2025, down from 90 million to 95 million previously, it said in a quarterly report Thursday. That’s still higher than the 87.1 million the company produced in 2024.

The cut comes as Santos faces increased investor scrutiny, following the collapse of a $19 billion takeover approach from an Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.-led group last month. Furthermore, the Adelaide-based company earlier this week announced the resignation of its chief financial officer, who was widely seen as a front runner to replace current Chief Executive Officer Kevin Gallagher, and is facing criticism over a methane leak at its Darwin LNG facility.

Santos said the output growth downgrade came after the floating production and storage facility at its recently started Barossa project had a two-week unplanned shutdown as a result of a software issue in September. Gas started flowing into the pipeline to the Darwin plant earlier this week, and production of LNG is expected to start in the coming weeks.Meanwhile, floods in the Cooper Basin straddling Queensland and South Australia have reduced domestic production. About 155 wells remain offline as floodwaters recede more slowly than expected, and recovery efforts will extend into the fourth quarter, it said.

“Last-minute hiccups at Barossa have triggered the production downgrade and, while disappointing, should not be material to valuation,” Jarden Group analysts Nik Burns and Joshua Mills-Bayne said in a note. “We were cautious on 2025 guidance going into the quarter, with everything needing to go right in our view to maintain the prior guidance range. We expect consensus earnings downgrades to follow.”Santos shares were up 0.2% at 11:25 a.m. in Sydney, after closing at their lowest since May on Wednesday. The company has fallen more than 5% this year.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Nothing about the largely empty stretch of land on the outskirts of Manila hints at how it produced a vast overnight fortune. Or a staggering writedown.But that’s what unfolded after Manuel Villar, the richest man in the Philippines, moved the land from one part of his corporate group to another and announced its value had shot up to $23.3 billion, from a mere $93 million.The mind-boggling gain, disclosed in March by Villar’s publicly traded Golden MV Holdings Inc., perplexed Manila’s financial community. Auditors balked, regulators halted the stock and opened an investigation, and Golden MV eventually agreed to write down the value by 99%.

“It is entirely ok to have gains moved between entities that are related parties,” said Miguel Angel Minutti-Meza, accounting department chair at the University of Miami’s Herbert Business School. But “it is not clear why this transaction was done and this raises some questions.”Five months on, the stock still isn’t trading. Regulators say Golden MV first must submit audited financial results that include the land. The company has said the audit is underway and that it didn’t break any rules, but it has left investors guessing about the math.

The episode has triggered fresh scrutiny of the business empire that propelled Villar from the slums to the country’s elite, with a fortune valued by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at $22.9 billion. Golden MV, which develops cemeteries, memorial parks and low-cost housing and has less than $100 million in annual revenue, trades at more than 1,000 times earnings on the Philippine stock exchange. Villar and parties related to him control 89% of the float.The nation’s Securities and Exchange Commission has fined the company and its senior executives and directors for failing to file financial results on time, and says it’s still considering whether to file criminal charges. Golden MV has appealed.

Last week, after inquiries by Bloomberg News, Villar representatives gave a tour of the land. It’s in the heart of Villar City — the billionaire’s signature real estate project that he kicked off two years ago — and it will play a central role in the project, Golden MV said last year.Golden MV, which is being renamed Villar Land, declined to answer Bloomberg’s questions about the deal. The company said in filings in recent months that the gain was recorded and disclosed in good faith and that it’s the “protracted review process of the external auditor” that is delaying its financials, rather than neglect or omission by directors or officers.

In front of the Brittany Hotel on Manila’s southern edge lies a panorama of bushy plains with a number of roads and residential developments. It’s part of the 366 hectares (904 acres) of land at the center of the huge gain and subsequent writedown.The land is part of what the billionaire calls Villar City — a plan to transform a cluster of cities, roughly half the size of Manhattan, into the capital’s “new center of gravity.” The plans include a university, shopping malls, office buildings and enough housing to boost its population to 9 million from about 2 million currently.

It’s Villar’s capstone project in a career largely built on real estate.

Born in Tondo, a neighborhood near the city harbor, Villar sold fish and shrimp in the local market to help pay for school. After graduating with an MBA from the University of the Philippines, he bought trucks to haul sand and gravel to construction sites and then moved into homebuilding.He founded Golden MV in 1982 and grew it into one of the Philippines’ largest chains of cemeteries and memorial parks — a big business in the Catholic country. He also developed affordable housing and later expanded into banking, department stores and supermarkets.

On Sept. 30, 2024, Golden MV paid $93 million to acquire three closely held entities controlled by Villar. Each held bits of the land. The price reflected the entities’ book value — assets minus liabilities — filings show.Six months later, Golden MV released a preview of its annual results. They included the land valued under the “fair value” accounting method, showing it had shot up 25,000% to $23.3 billion. The company booked it as a one-time gain, lifting its 2024 net income to $17.2 billion — a record for the Philippines and beating global giants like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley.

It’s customary for companies to value newly acquired land under the fair value method, said the University of Miami’s Minutti-Meza. The difference between that and book value can be huge, he said, but the figure must be grounded in valuation models and techniques verified by external auditors.“I do not know why, or who advised them,” Wilson Tan, chairman of the Philippine Financial and Sustainability Reporting Standards Council, said of the paper gain booked by Golden MV. From a technical accounting perspective, the gain might be sound, he said, “but from a business perspective?”

Asset valuation firm EValue Phils, Inc. helped Golden MV appraise the land, filings show. But Golden MV’s auditor, a member firm of Grant Thornton International, wouldn’t endorse it. EValue declined to comment, while the auditor didn’t respond to a request for comment.The audit dragged on, preventing Golden MV from filing results for 2024 and the first and second quarter of 2025. The company eventually agreed to value the entities holding the land at-cost, bringing the total value down to $148 million, according to a regulatory filing.

This prompted more questions. Why would a billionaire who’s been in real estate for decades record a huge gain and then reverse course?Some analysts said it may have been a sound move if Villar was looking to issue, sell or pledge shares, or boost Golden MV’s assets to meet loan covenants. But the stock fell after the gain was disclosed, and analysts said banks would be unlikely to take property’s price gain at face value.

Whatever the reason, the restated value of $148 million is more realistic considering market conditions and the area’s potential, said Sheila Lobien, founder and chief executive officer of real estate consultancy Lobien Realty Group in Manila. “Execution will matter more than headline valuations,” she said.Golden MV has yet to assuage both its auditor and the SEC. The regulator in August said the company’s release of unaudited financials showed “a clear disregard for its regulatory obligations” and imposed a $400,000 one-time fine and a smaller daily fee that accumulates until the audited results are submitted.

Golden MV’s appeal is still pending. It hasn’t said when it expects to file its results.“They are basically saying they cannot be penalized because they acted in good faith because they had to resolve the issue with the external auditor,” said SEC chair Francis Lim. “If you start bending rules because personalities involved are powerful already, our market integrity will always be a dream.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe