Dollar Rallies To Highest Since August On Fed Hawkishness

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Summary:

The dollar climbed to the highest level in three months, propelled by a weakening yen and the Federal Reserve pulling back from additional interest-rate cuts this year.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.6%, touching its highest level since Aug. 1, before paring some gains. After the Fed reduced rates by a quarter point as expected on Wednesday, Chair Jerome Powell warned that a cut in December is not a given, curtailing expectations for more cuts this year. The Bank of Japan followed by dampening rate-hike expectations on Thursday, pushing the yen down to an eight-month low.

"It's a follow on from a hawkish Fed," said Aroop Chatterjee, a strategist at Wells Fargo. He said that the move was further supported by "the BOJ basically delaying any hikes till December."

The dollar is on track for a second month of gains this year as the lack of official data over the government shutdown has muddied the outlook for the economy and Fed's monetary policy path, creating uncertainty.

Despite the void of US economic indicators, this week was heavy with central bank action across the globe. The European Central Bank left rates unchanged for the third meeting as the economy continued to grow and inflation was in check.

The euro was down 0.2% against the dollar, trading lower along with all currencies in the Group of 10 against the greenback.

After the BOJ left its benchmark rate unchanged, the yen dropped to the weakest level since February, trading at 154.14 in the morning trade in New York. The yen fell since the decision offered few hawkish signals.

"The recent tone from the new Japanese administration has been pro-growth," said Nathan Thooft, a senior portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management. "And to accomplish that policy, they are willing to accept a weaker yen. In fact, they would prefer it."

In the options market, premium paid to hedge against a rise in the US dollar against a basket of peers over the next year, relative to positioning for a drop, is near the highest since April.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Winkelmann

Forex

Political

Economic

Workers at a Volkswagenplant in Tennessee voted to authorize a strike, the United Auto Workers union said Wednesday evening, paving the way for a potential walkout at the Chattanooga facility.The UAW and automaker have been in contract negotiations for more than a year, after workers there voted 73% in favor of joining the union in April 2024.The vote gives the union the right to strike, but doesn't guarantee one will happen.

"A strike would be harmful to everyone at VW Chattanooga and our community. If a strike is called, we are committed to ensuring any employees who choose to do so can come to work safely and will continue to receive their full pay and benefits," Volkswagen said in a statement.The Chattanooga factory became the first auto plant in the South to unionize via election since the 1940s and the first foreign-owned auto plant in the South to do so. Since then, the union's $40 million organizing drive has stalled, following a defeat at a Mercedes plant in Alabama.

"It is a historic first, as the first strike authorization vote at a non-Big Three automaker in the modern era," the union said of the strike vote, in a release Wednesday.Negotiations at the facility, which produces the electric ID.4 and gasoline-powered Atlas SUV, have centered on pay, healthcare and financial benefits such as cost-of-living adjustments (COLA).About 3,200 workers at the plant are represented by the union, the labor group said.

After the union notched record labor deals with Detroit's automakers in late 2023, Volkswagen joined many other companies in offering their workers a wage bump of 11%. The company's proposed deal would offer an additional 20% wage increase over the four-year contract."Our ask is let the employees vote on that," Volkswagen Group of America CEO Kjell Gruner said at a Reuters conference in Detroit on Wednesday. "We are very confident with this offer that our employees would say 'let's do this.'"

Employees would also receive COLA for the first time, as well as a $4,000 ratification bonus, according to what the company described as its last and final offer, which was posted to the VW website."Volkswagen's most recent proposal does not include the job security language needed to protect workers from plant closures, outsourcing, or the sale of the Chattanooga facility," the union said in a Wednesday release.Many workers have pushed for an equal or better deal than the one ironed out with the Detroit Three automakers in late 2023, which included a 25% wage increase over the life of the contract with Stellantis, Ford Motor and General Motors.

Source: TradingView

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Warren Takunda

Economic

As Donald Trump flew out of Busan airport in South Korea after his meeting with China’s Xi Jinping, the US president sounded upbeat about progress made during less than two hours of talks.

Trump discussed the outcome of the meeting, which he described as a 12 on a scale of one to 10, with “an outstanding group of decisions made”. He added: “We’ve come to a conclusion on many important points.”

A Chinese statement quoted Xi saying the two countries had “good prospects for cooperation”, and relations had maintained “overall stability” under his and Trump’s guidance.

Xi told the meeting that the two countries’ trade negotiation teams had “reached a basic consensus on addressing our respective major concerns” when they met last weekend. “Both sides should take a long-term view and focus on the benefits of cooperation, rather than falling into a vicious cycle of mutual retaliation,” he said.

1. Rare earths is ‘settled’

Perhaps the most globally crucial topic was China’s recently announced ban on rare-earth exports if there was any chance of the products having dual use for foreign militaries or some semiconductor sectors. China controls nearly all the mining and processing of rare earths, and the ban sent nations scrambling.

But Trump said he discussed it with Xi and “they’re gonna keep those flowing”, under a one-year agreement on supply which Trump expected to be extended annually. “All of the rare earth has been settled,” he said. “That roadblock is gone now, there’s no roadblock at all on rare earths.”

The Chinese statement did not mention rare earths specifically, but the commerce ministry later said the country would suspend the export controls announced on 9 October (the day the rare earths ban was revealed) in return for the US pausing 50% penetration rules on export controls.

2. Tariffs eased slightly by ‘real action’ on fentanyl

On fentanyl, Trump said Xi was going to “work very hard to stop the flow” of precursor chemicals that the US said were being used to make the highly addictive and dangerous drug that was sweeping through the US. “I think you’ll see some real action taken,” he said.

The US had put a 20% tariff on Chinese products specifically to put pressure on Beijing over fentanyl. Today Trump says he has immediately reduced it to 10%, based on Xi’s statements on Thursday.

China’s commerce ministry confirmed the suspension of the fentanyl tariffs, among others, and said it would adjust its own countermeasures accordingly.

One issue that appeared to be unresolved was the status of the “phase one” trade deal that was agreed in Trump’s first term. Last week, the US said that it was investigating China for not following through with the commitment to increase purchases of US goods and services by $200bn annually.

3. Trump is going to Beijing and Xi might in turn visit ... Florida

The US president told reporters he would go to China in April, in a long-expected trip. He was less specific about a reciprocal visit by Xi to the US, saying only that his Chinese counterpart “will be coming here some time after that. Whether it’s in Florida, Palm Beach or Washington DC”.

China said Trump “looks forward to visiting” early next year, but only acknowledged that he had invited Xi to visit the US.

4. Chip sales but not the Blackwell

On chips, Trump said he and Xi discussed China buying US chips from Nvidia, but said that was up to them and the US was more of an “arbitrator or referee”. When asked if he was going to allow Nvidia’s new Blackwell AI chip to be sold to China, Trump said no. “We’re not talking about the Blackwell … But a lot of chips, you know, a lot of the chips. And that’s good for us.”

The Blackwell B30A chip is a new product by Nvidia, to replace the H20, a deliberately throttled-back chip designed for the Chinese market so it would not trigger US restrictions. The Blackwell B30A is also deliberately limited but is more powerful than the H20, and critics from both sides of US politics have expressed concern at the prospect of allowing China to buy it.

5. A lot of Ukraine but not much Taiwan

Trump said the war in Ukraine “came up very strongly” as an issue and that he and Xi had agreed to work together to make progress. “We talked about it for a long time, and we’re both going to work together to see if we can get something,” he said.

However, he also said: “The two sides are locked in fighting, and sometimes you’ve got to let them fight I guess. Crazy.”

He acknowledged China was a big buyer of Russian oil but added that the topic was not discussed. The Chinese summary of the talks noted that Trump was “very enthusiastic about settling various regional hotspot issues”, and that China had also been promoting peace talks on various conflicts.

“The world today is confronted with many tough problems,” Xi said. “China and the US can jointly shoulder our responsibility as major countries, and work together to accomplish more great and concrete things for the good of our two countries and the whole world.”

Meanwhile, Taiwan “never came up” in the meeting, Trump told reporters onboard Air Force One. “That was not discussed actually.”

The annexation of Taiwan as a Chinese province is a primary aim for Xi, and he is preparing the military to take the island by force if necessary. Such an event would have global ramifications.

The US is Taiwan’s most important supporter in its resistance to China’s threats, but Trump’s inconsistent position on that decades-long support has fuelled apprehension about what would happen if Xi asked Trump for US concessions.

Source: Theguardian

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Justin

Commodity

The U.S. and China landed an interim trade accord on Thursday that offered relief to both countries following six months of turbulent negotiations.

The discussions between the U.S. and Chinese governments for much of the year have been punctured by export embargoes, tariff threats, agricultural boycotts, and antagonistic statements. Yet the Thursday meeting in South Korea between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping displayed signs of progress towards a far-reaching trade deal.

Key tenets of the agreement included:

U.S. reduction of fentanyl tariffs from to 10% from 20%
One-year Chinese pause on rare strict earth export controls
Chinese promise to purchase U.S. soybeans through 2028
U.S. postpones Section 301 investigation into Chinese shipping
Chinese promise to step up a crackdown on fentanyl
Mutual pause on reciprocal port fees

Trump was effusive about Xi, who has led China under an authoritarian system. "President Xi is a great leader of a great country, and I think we're going to have a fantastic relationship for a long period of time," Trump said. Following the meeting, he rated the meeting a 12 out of a scale of zero to 10, with 10 being top marks.

Analysts characterized the deal as a modest one, since it mostly contained temporary steps aimed at ratcheting down tensions rather than permanent policy changes. Trump said the overall tariff rate on China remains 47%, far above historic levels.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Beijing had committed to purchasing 12 million metric tons of soybeans this year, and double that amount annually through 2028. For several months, the Chinese government halted all its U.S. soybean purchases.

"Our great soybean farmers who the Chinese used as political pawns — that's off the table," Bessent said in a Fox Business interview. Though in the past, the Chinese had made commitments to buy U.S. soybeans that never materialized.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Samantha Luan

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Forex

Economic

New Zealand dairy producer Fonterra Co-operative Groupsaid on Thursday its farmer shareholders have agreed to the NZ$4.22 billion ($2.42 billion) divestment of its global consumer and associated businesses to French dairy major Lactalis.About 88.5% of the total farmer votes were cast in support of the sale after the deal had been backed by the board, the dairy company said.

The sale includes Fonterra's global consumer business — encompassing the operations of brands such as Mainland and Anchor butter, Kapiti ice cream and cheese, and the Anlene powdered milk supplement — as well as long-term commitments to purchase milk from Fonterra.Privately held Lactalis, the world's largest dairy company, counts names such as France's brie cheese maker President and Italy's mozzarella producer Vallelata among its brands, and sells everything from yoghurt to flavoured milk and desserts.Fonterra's more than 8,000 shareholder farmers will get a significant capital return, with ASB Bank economists inferring an average capital return of around NZ$393,000 per farm.

That could provide a notable boost to rural New Zealand at a time when the economy is struggling, having contracted in three of the last five quarters.However, the deal has not been overwhelmingly supported more broadly in New Zealand, with Foreign Minister Winston Peters campaigning against the sale.Peters said in a post on X that the sale was "utter madness" and "economic self-sabotage".The transaction also covers the dairy company's Foodservice and Ingredients businesses in Oceania and Sri Lanka, along with its Middle East and Africa Foodservice operations, Chairman Peter McBride said in a statement after the vote.

"We will be able to focus Fonterra's energy and efforts on where we do our best work. We will have a simplified and more focused business, the value of which cannot be overstated," he said.Fonterra added that completion of the divestment remains subject to certain regulatory approvals and the sale is expected to happen in the first half of 2026.

Source: TradingView

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Warren Takunda

Economic

A hot mike caught U.S. President Donald Trump saying that his much-anticipated meeting Thursday with Chinese President Xi Jinping, meant to settle the most important trade relationship in the world, would be “three, four hours” and he would then fly back to Washington.

It was actually much shorter, an hour and 40 minutes, but true to his word he was on a plane well before the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit was to begin Friday.

Trump’s decision to skip APEC fits with his well-known disdain for the big, multi-nation forums that have been traditionally used to address huge global problems, and his relish of the kind of one-on-one diplomacy that can result in big deals, or at least interesting headlines.

But his blunt dismissal of this weekend’s APEC diplomacy risks worsening America’s reputation at a forum that represents nearly 40% of the world’s population and more than half of global goods trade.

It also stands in contrast to China’s approach.

Showing up matters in Asian diplomacy, and the Chinese leader is scheduled to be in South Korea until the forum ends this weekend, hoping to gain wins in Trump’s absence.

What Trump’s absence at APEC signals to the region

On social media Trump celebrated his meeting with Xi in South Korea as a “G2,” a recognition of America and China’s status as the world’s two biggest economies and a play on the multi-national Group of Seven (G7) and Group of 20 (G20) forums.

Still, Trump tried to emphasize American ties to the broader region throughout his trip, which started in Malaysia with the annual Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Xi did not go, and Trump told the “spectacular leaders” there that he remained committed to the region and was “on a mission of friendship and goodwill, and to deepen our ties of commerce, to strengthen our common security and really to promote strongly stability, prosperity and peace.”

Some analysts, however, describe a rudderless Asia policy by the Trump administration.

“He does not appear to want his hands tied by a disciplined, coherent strategy,” Michael Green, who worked on former U.S President George W. Bush’s National Security Council and now leads the United States Studies Centre in Sydney, Australia, said of Trump’s Asia efforts.

It remains to be seen whether Trump’s personalized brand of foreign policy will erode U.S. influence and leadership, said Go Myong-hyun, an analyst at South Korea’s Institute of National Security Strategy.

“Of course, the United States’ reputation will worsen compared to the idealistic internationalism the rest of the world had long associated with America,” Go said. “But it’s too early to say for sure whether the United States’ status and strengths are really in decline.”

Issues that might be settled at APEC without Trump

APEC is a much less important gathering than it used to be, especially since Washington began dismantling global trading norms under Trump, whose sweeping U.S. tariffs have rattled friends and foes alike.

While the nations at APEC may agree on small issues, such as environmental protection or job training, the forum’s biggest value is now probably as an opportunity for leaders to meet on the sidelines.

Trump’s unilateral push to reset global trade especially rattles countries like South Korea, whose export-driven economy depends on the postwar expansion of free trade.

Oh Hyunjoo, a deputy director of South Korea’s presidential national security office, told reporters this week that it has been difficult to produce a joint statement between APEC members “because the basic rule-based order based on the World Trade Organization is now beginning to crack.”

Even without Trump’s participation in the main event, however, the APEC forum in South Korea will allow Seoul to expand international discussions over AI, aging populations and other global issues, said Ban Kil Joo, a professor at South Korea’s National Diplomatic Academy.

“We’re entering an era shaped by AI, while also facing global challenges such as population decline and climate change, so even if the agenda doesn’t explicitly include ‘free trade,’ there are many issues that countries must jointly confront and solve together,” Ban said.

What China hopes to gain from APEC

Trump’s absence focuses attention on Xi and on a rising China, but that’s not entirely a good thing for Beijing.

“The world is preparing for a post-U.S. era,” said Wang Yiwei, an international relations professor at Renmin University of China in Beijing. “It has become a common consensus that there is no U.S. in APEC, or there is a U.S. with less input or without leadership. The world has higher expectations for China.”

At the same time, Wang said, China hopes Trump will attend next year’s APEC leaders meeting, which China will host.

“Without China-U.S. cooperation, China cannot lead the world, nor does it want to,” he said. “It is hoped that the U.S. could return to the APEC family and the globalization family.”

China has been positioning itself as a defender of free trade and an alternative economic partner to countries facing Trump’s tariffs, as Premier Li Qiang did at a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations this week — after Trump had already left the gathering.

China’s state-owned Global Times newspaper said Xi will deliver an important speech at APEC at a time of global economic uncertainty, rising protectionism and rapid technological transformation.

“‘Chinese wisdom’ and ‘Chinese solutions’ have become one of the focal points of attention at this APEC meeting,” an editorial by the newspaper said.

Source: AP

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Justin

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Stocks

Economic

Alibaba's Taobao is advertising its Singles Day shopping promotions in Singapore.

Alibaba and ByteDance's TikTok Shop are just some of the Chinese e-commerce players that have quickly come to dominate around half of the online shopping market in several Southeast Asian countries, consulting firm Bain and Company said in a report Thursday.In Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines, Chinese online shopping players — such as Shein and PDD's Temu — account for roughly 50% of the local e-commerce market, data for 2024 showed, according to the report. It indicated the Chinese companies have also gained a foothold in the growing online commerce market in countries from the U.S. to Brazil.

The findings come as Chinese companies are accelerating their global expansion, amid slowing economic growth at home — and despite escalating U.S.-China trade tensions."Far from being killed by tariffs, the internationalization of Chinese retail is entering a new phase," the report said. Its authors noted that the Chinese sellers have so far tended to perform better "in markets with lower online purchasing power."This year, Bain pointed out, Alibaba's Taobao is expanding Singles Day shopping promotions to 20 regions — meaning the world's biggest shopping event is no longer just a factor for China but markets where rival Amazon.com has pushed its Black Friday sales.

It's not immediately clear the extent to which Singles Day was promoted outside China in past years. But the ramp up is recent. Taobao in Malaysia last year announced it would be the first time the shopping event would be promoted in English, in addition to Chinese.Alibaba's international division — called "International Digital Commerce Group" — reported 19% year-on-year revenue growth in the three months ended June 30 to 34.74 billion yuan ($4.85 billion).

That was slightly more than what the company's cloud computing unit brought in, but still far less than the 140.07 billion yuan in revenue generated by Alibaba's China e-commerce business, which saw slower growth at 10%. Similar to Amazon.com, merchants open accounts on Alibaba's platforms to sell directly to consumers.One signal of how quickly Chinese sellers are expanding their online sales abroad comes from financing numbers.In just over a year, fintech startup FundPark has facilitated $3 billion in loans to small Chinese businesses for overseas e-commerce — it had previously taken the company six years to lend the same $3 billion amount, Anson Suen, co-founder and CEO, told CNBC.

FundPark, which has received $750 million in financing from Goldman Sachs and HSBC, assesses how much small merchants can borrow by using its tech-based data analysis. The startup on Tuesday announced it raised $71 million to support its new artificial intelligence-powered tool for "dynamic funding" that can help merchants navigate tariff uncertainties.

Taking China learnings abroad

Part of the Chinese e-commerce companies' success comes from lessons learned in their home market that integrate livestreaming, rapid product innovation and speedy logistics, Bain analysts pointed out.In fact, Amazon shut down its China marketplace in 2019 amid rising competition from domestic players.

The country's giant market has provided fertile training ground.

At $2.32 billion in gross merchandise value sold last year, the Chinese e-commerce market is more than twice the size of the U.S., which saw $1.05 billion in GMV last year, Bain said. GMV is a measure of sales on an ecommerce platform over a period of time.In Southeast Asia, Indonesia was the largest market with $62 billion in e-commerce GMV last year, while Thailand and Vietnam each recorded $30 billion in GMV, Bain said. The Philippines saw $20 billion in 2024 GMV, while Singapore's was far smaller at just $8.55 billion.

But it's far from a straight path to growth for Chinese players in every market.

Bain pointed out that in Singapore, Alibaba's Lazada had lost market share to the local incumbent Shopee, while Amazon and Walmart still dominate in the U.S.While PDD, Alibaba and ByteDance divide up most of the Chinese market, the U.S. is a far different story, with Bain data showing that non-Chinese e-commerce players accounted for nearly 95% of the market.