CXM Direct Sponsors FastBull 2024 Trading Influencers Awards Ceremony · Vietnam

Summary:

CXM Direct will join the grand event and celebrate the stars in the trading industry as photo area sponsor.

CXM Direct Sponsors FastBull 2024 Trading Influencers Awards Ceremony · Vietnam_1

Fastbull is exciting to announce that CXM Direct will join FastBull 2024 Trading Influencers Awards Ceremony · Vietnam as photo area sponsor.

As a technology innovator for the Internet of Finance, Fastbull is glad to discover the rising stars and inject vibration and new blood into the dynamic trading world. Fastbull's exclusive event is designed to honor outstanding traders and investors, providing a unique opportunity for networking. This night of entertainment and inspiration will shine with the brightest stars in the trading world.

Thanks to CXM Direct for making our event unforgettable.As the photo area sponsor of the event, CXM Direct will leave every attendee with great memories and let the light witness the warm applause that this event has brought to the trading industry, adding an extra layer of fun and excitement to our event!

Fastbull and CXM Direct will meet you at Eastin Grand Hotel Saigon, Ho Chi Minh, on September 8, 2024.

About CXM Direct

CXM Direct group of companies was established in 2015 when its founders saw that the global forex industry lacked trading solutions and had been on the back foot because of reliabilities issues. Capitalising on their decades of expertise across the global markets such as the Asia Pacific, the US, and Europe, CXM Direct's leading team delivered a multi-award-winning hub of services that can satisfy even the most demanding traders.

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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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SAXO

Economic

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – September 6, 2024_1

Macro:

•US ISM services slightly rose to 51.5 from prior and expected 51.4. Looking at the sub-components, employment fell to 50.2 from 51.1 but remained in expansion, with prices paid and new orders lifting to 57.3 (prev. 57.0) and 53.0 (prev. 52.4), while business activity fell to 53.3 from 54.5. Inventories lifted back above 50 to 52.9 (prev. 49.8), while backlog of orders, new exports orders, imports, and inventory sentiment all tumbled. The report continued to highlight that some sections of the US economy continue to be resilient.

•ADP survey labor data sent a dovish signal as national employment fell to 99k in August from the prior (revised lower) 111k, beneath the expected 145k. All attention now turns to payrolls data due today which is likely to be the key determinant of whether the Fed cuts by 50bps or 25bps this month. Saxo’s preview of the payrolls data can be found here.

•US jobless claims (w/e 31st Aug) remained within recent ranges, but slightly dipped to 227k (prev. 232k, exp. 230k), leaving the 4wk average at 230k (prev. 231.75k). Continued claims (w/e 24th Aug) also fell to 1.838mln from 1.860mln, shy of the expected 1.865mln and outside the bottom end of the guidance range.

Macro events: Japan Household Spending (Jul), German Industrial Output (Jul), EZ Revised GDP (Q2), US NFP (Aug) – preview here, Canadian Unemployment/Wages (Aug)

Earnings: BigLots, ABM, Brady, Genesco, BRP

Equities: US stocks ended a volatile session mixed on Thursday as investors repositioned ahead of Friday’s crucial labor report. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones fell by 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively, while the Nasdaq 100 managed gains after initially rising over 1%.

New labor market data offered mixed signals about the U.S. economy's health with ADP private payroll growth for August coming in at 99,000 jobs, the weakest since January 2021 and significantly below expectations. However, weekly unemployment claims declined, providing some relief. The conflicting data, including a drop in job openings on Wednesday, fueled concerns about a potential recession and the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate-cuts.

Health sector stocks led the declines, with Eli Lilly down 3.5% and UnitedHealth falling 1.5%. In contrast, the consumer discretionary sector performed best, bolstered by Amazon's 2.6% rise and Tesla's 4.9% increase. Following a 99% increase in revenue and impressive Q2 deliveries, Nio saw its stock surge by 14.3% in today’s session. Conversely, Broadcom, which reported earnings after the market closed and exceeded expectations on both revenue and earnings, saw its shares decline by 6.7%.

Fixed income: Treasuries peaked after ADP data missed expectations. However, gains were trimmed at the front end of the curve due to an unexpected rise in the prices paid component of the August ISM services report.

This led to a flattening of the curve, partially reversing Wednesday’s steepening trend, with long-end yields ending the day richer by about 4 basis points compared to the previous day's close. Yields were richer by 1 to 4 basis points across the curve, with the 2s10s and 5s30s spreads flattening by 2 and 2.5 basis points, respectively. The 10-year yields ended around 3.725%, down approximately 3 basis points on the day, outperforming both bunds and gilts.

Investors continued to pour money into US money-market funds for the fifth consecutive week, indicating strong demand despite anticipated Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. About $37 billion was added to these funds in the week ending September 4, bringing total inflows over this period to approximately $165 billion. Buyers eagerly participated in Treasury’s four- and eight-week auctions to lock in yields above 5%, anticipating that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this month. The Treasury sold $80 billion of four-week bills at 5.08% and $80 billion of eight-week bills at 5.04%.

Commodities: WTI crude futures settled at $69.1, close to a 14-month low, due to concerns over slowing demand in the U.S. and China, and potential increased supply from Libya, despite a larger-than-expected 6.9 million barrel drop in U.S. crude inventories reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration for the week ending August 30. OPEC+ postponed planned production hikes for October and November. In Libya, tankers resumed loading crude despite political tensions. U.S. gasoline futures fell toward $1.9 per gallon in September, the lowest since February 2021, amid a broader slump in the oil market driven by reduced fuel demand. Gold prices increased by 0.65% to $2,516.

FX: The US dollar slipped further lower on Thursday amid mixed economic data continuing to put the focus on Fed’s rate cuts. However, markets still remain divided between whether the US economy will achieve a soft landing or a hard landing, the two scenarios we discussed in this article. Earlier this week, it seemed that a hard landing scenario was being priced in, but yesterday’s price action of Kiwi dollar outperforming among major currencies is reflective of soft landing expectations. Gains in other activity currencies like British pound and Australian dollar also outpaced gains in the Japanese yen, a safe-haven. The Norwegian krone, however, closed in the red as oil prices failed to sustain a bid despite OPEC+ pushing back its supply hike timeline.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Daily News

Central Bank

Economic

Forex

[Quick Facts]

1. Goolsbee hints at multiple rate cuts over the next year.

2. OPEC+ agrees to delay October oil output hike for two months.

3. U.S. services activity expands for 2nd straight month in August.

4. U.S. layoffs hit five-month high in August.

5. Initial jobless claims fall, easing worries about labor market deterioration.

[News Details]

Goolsbee hints at multiple rate cuts over the next year

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Thursday that the long-term trend in the labor market and inflation data suggest the Federal Reserve will soon ease monetary policy and continue this process over the next year. It is pretty clear that the path is not just rate cuts soon, but multiple cuts over the next 12 months.

Officials have been expecting a slowdown of the labor market for months, but persistent weakness increases the likelihood that the job market will continue to cool and could get worse. The nonfarm payrolls data on Friday will reflect this key issue. But I don't want us to make a decision based on one data point, said Goolsbee.

Economists generally expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, but some believe Friday's weak jobs report could prompt a 50 basis point cut.

OPEC+ agrees to delay October oil output hike for two months

Key OPEC+ members will not raise oil output by 180,000 barrels a day in October as scheduled as they have decided to postpone the increase for two months, according to some anonymous representatives. Led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC+ agreed in June on a road map for a gradual resumption of oil supply. However, after the plan was announced, the organization remained indecisive, repeatedly emphasizing that it might 'pause or reverse' the production increase if necessary. Following the news of the delayed production hike decision, international oil prices rose in response, with both WTI and Brent crude prices now up more than 1.2%.

U.S. services activity expands for 2nd straight month in August

Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Thursday showed that economic activity in the service sector expanded for the second consecutive month in August. The services PMI registered 51.5, marking expansion in six of the eight months of 2024, or in 48 of the 51 months.

Steve Miller, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, said, "The increase in the Services PMI in August is due to all directly factoring indexes (Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Supplier Deliveries) with readings close to or above 50 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index was in mild contraction territory in August. Slow-to-moderate growth was cited across many industries, while ongoing high costs and interest-rate pressures were often mentioned as negatively impacting business performance and driving softness in sales and traffic. Although the Inventories Index increased by 3.1 percentage points into expansion territory in August, many respondents indicated their companies are still actively managing their inventories.

U.S. layoffs hit five-month high in August

U.S. employers posted the most layoffs in five months in August, with the tech sector being the hardest hit, data showed Thursday, reflecting growing economic uncertainty and ongoing cost concerns. Companies announced 75,891 layoffs last month, roughly triple the number in July and marking the biggest monthly increase in a year, firm Challenger said.

However, the number of layoffs announced so far this year is down 3.7 percent. "August's surge in job cuts reflects growing economic uncertainty and shifting market dynamics. Companies are facing a variety of pressures, from rising operational costs to concerns about a potential economic slowdown, leading them to make tough decisions about workforce management," Challenger Vice President Andrew Challenger said in a statement. More than half of the announced layoffs in August came from the technology sector, totaling 39,563, up sharply from around 6,000 in July and the most since January 2023. The health sector had the next largest announced layoffs at 6,158.

Initial jobless claims fall, easing worries about labor market deterioration

The number of U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 227,000 for the week ending August 31, lower than the expected 230,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday. The number of continuing jobless claims for the week of August 24 was 1.838 million, also falling short of the expected 1.869 million. Both indicators showed a slight decrease from the previous figures. As the seasonal effects from the auto industry and hurricanes gradually fade and layoffs remain low, the decline in initial jobless claims may help ease concerns about a weakening labor market.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 20:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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WELLS FARGO

Economic

ISM Rises to Three-Month High

A run of lousy jobs market data has put the once all-but-assured soft landing in doubt, and while the services sector is not immune to the soft labor signals, activity there remains in good shape. In fact, it’s improving. The ISM services index rose modestly to 51.5 in August, and while service-providers also face their fair share of challenges, activity in the sector is merely moderating rather than declining as it is in wide swaths of manufacturing. That is giving way to a degree of measured…dare we say? optimism. (chart).

US: Despite Broader Growth Concerns, Service Sector Improves_1

The select industry comments from purchasing manager respondents included mention of business being stable, good, strong or improving. Some others referenced high borrowing costs and elevated costs weighing on business activity, but the report remains consistent with an expanding sector, which quells some fear of stalling growth, for now.

Demand remains strong for services as new orders rose to 53.0 and eight industries reported an increase in orders in August (chart). Even as the measure of current conditions (business activity) pulled back in August, it remains consistent with expansion at 53.3 and only four of 18 industries reported a decline in activity last month.

US: Despite Broader Growth Concerns, Service Sector Improves_2

For those parsing through the release on clarity of the jobs market, well it remains fuzzy. Sentiment was mixed as hiring continues in some industries while there are freezes in others.

It was the release of the July jobs report that sent financial markets into a tailspin just a few weeks ago. As the market awaits today’s full jobs report for August, the employment component of the ISM services index declined to 50.2 (chart). That means essentially, in aggregate, job growth is flat. Layoffs and attrition are roughly matching new-hires. In reality, the details are more mixed. Some respondents mentioned hiring declines to control costs, while others mention it’s hard to find talent even at a time when fewer jobs are available. This is not inconsistent with the separately reported slump in job openings reported.

US: Despite Broader Growth Concerns, Service Sector Improves_3

Today’s report is key in determining by how much the FOMC will slash rates at its upcoming policy meeting on September 18. We forecast a partial rebound in August hiring and reversal of the unemployment rate from July’s increase. But if today’s job report were to come in weaker than in July, a 50 bps reduction in the federal funds rate would remain the base case.

Inflation is still on the mind of policymakers, even if the labor market has garnered more attention. We’ll get the consumer price index report next week for August, but the ISM services prices paid metric reported yesterday rose in August to a three-month high of 57.3. That may not be problematic for policymakers. For many services companies the biggest cost is labor, so the cooling in the labor market may lead to continued improvement in service prices, a key indicator for the Fed in this cycle.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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FxPro

Cryptocurrency

Market Picture

The Asian session continues to be tough for cryptocurrencies. The total market capitalisation had risen to $2.05 trillion the previous evening, recovering from a drop earlier in the day. Still, selling prevailed again at the start of the new day on Thursday, bringing the capitalisation back to $2.0 trillion (+0.8% in 24 hours).

Bitcoin Continues Downtrend_1

Bitcoin is down for the ninth day out of the last 11 as its attempt to consolidate above the 200-day average triggered an intensified sell-off. This pattern persists into Thursday morning as the price continues to test the lows of the last four months. Rising financial markets and a weaker dollar did not help Bitcoin gain strength. It is possible that the weakness in cryptocurrencies is a manifestation of a very limited risk appetite, and the rest of the markets may soon follow the lead of cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin Continues Downtrend_2

News Background

Kaiko noted a significant oversupply of Bitcoin in the crypto market amid a sell-off in government stocks and forced asset sales by bankrupt exchange MtGox.

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes acknowledged the continuation of Bitcoin’s correction to $50,000 ahead of the Fed’s September meeting. According to him, the pressure factor will remain the situation in the money market, where yields on overnight reverse repos with the central bank remain higher than on US Treasury bills.

The negative dynamics of BTC after the halving in April have ‘buried’ the four-year cycle previously associated with this event. Outlier Ventures reached this conclusion after analysing previous periods from a similar distance.

Based on an analysis of 5,000 collections and 5 million transactions of non-fungible tokens (NFTs), the NFT Evening specialists concluded that 96% of them are dead. The average lifespan of NFTs is 1.14 years, which is 2.5 times less than traditional crypto projects.

CoinDesk reported that Donald Trump’s sons announced the World Liberty Financial protocol, which will focus on credit and be built on the Ethereum blockchain and the Aave platform.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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TD Securities

Economic

The ISM Services index was virtually unchanged in August, coming in at 51.5 from 51.4 in July, and virtually in line with the 51.4 expected. Like last month, ten of 18 industries reported growth for the month.

The business activity sub-index showed a slight deceleration in growth, but stayed in the black at 53.3, while the new orders index firmed up, rising to 53.0.

The prices paid sub-component ticked up again to 57.3 percentage points (pp) from 57.0 in July, but remains below its 2019 average. The supplier deliveries sub-index retraced some of last month’s losses, rising 2.0 pp to 49.6.

The employment sub-component pulled back to 50.2, narrowly avoiding contraction territory.

Key Implications

The services sector continues to chug along. The details were pretty good, with the sole fly in the ointment being the slowdown in employment growth. All things considered, it’s a relatively solid print given where we are in the business cycle.

While growth looks to be holding up pretty well, the Fed has been focused on labor market developments, leaving all eyes on Friday’s payrolls report. Rate cuts are on the way, but with the economy continuing to rumble along, we expect the Fed will deliver 75 basis points of cuts by the end of the year.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Forex

Economic

ADP payroll report comes in below forecasts

Ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, attention was focused on the private payroll report from ADP. Expectations had been for 144,000 jobs to have been created, but the actual figure was just 99,000.

This was the lowest level since October 2023, and prompted further selling of the US dollar. Weakness in the US dollar prompted a fresh rise in GBP/USD, which had risen on Wednesday. This halted the pullback from the recent highs, which had capped a remarkable rally from the August low.

What can we expect from the Fed?

According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, markets are still pricing in a 55% chance of a 25bps rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet later in the month. A 50bps cut is viewed as a 50% likelihood.

Markets are pricing in around 100bps of cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) by the end of the year, which may be too optimistic. If tomorrow’s payroll report comes in better than expected then the dollar may recover as expectations of a 50bps cut decline.

GBP/USD technical analysis

Cable’s recovery over the past 24 hours has put the buyers back in charge. After a brief pullback from the August highs, the price is moving higher once again.

A close back below $1.31 would be needed to suggest that the sellers have reasserted control. The pair has enjoyed a strong rally since April, with weakness in June and into early August seeing higher lows established.

The latest pullback and recovery leaves the trend in place, though it looks overstretched in the short-term, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) some 200 points away.

GBP/USD chart

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CXM Direct Sponsors FastBull 2024 Trading Influencers Awards Ceremony · Vietnam

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – September 6, 2024

Macro: