Investing.com -- Barclays downgraded American Tower and Crown Castle to Equal Weight, saying the tower companies face rising uncertainty over their ability to collect rent tied to EchoStar, which could push 2026 growth lower and limit prospects for a near term re-rating.
Brokerage kept its Overweight on SBA Communications, which it said has less exposure to the dispute.
Barclays said legal checks indicate American Tower and Crown Castle have strong cases for enforcing contracts with EchoStar, but the harder issue is collecting cash.
EchoStar may have transferred spectrum assets to a protected subsidiary and may have other claims on liquidity ahead of tower leases.
Brokerage now sees a 50% payout on the net present value of the contracts as more likely than the 75% outcome some investors had expected.
The bank said reserves, missed payments and churn are possible before any settlement, and both companies may need to account for EchoStar exposure when issuing 2026 guidance. Barclays removed EchoStar revenue from its models starting in the first quarter of 2026 and expects management teams to face pressure to reset expectations.
American Tower is now projected to post 2% AFFO per share growth in 2026 versus the Street at 6.1%. Barclays cut its price target to $200, based on 17 times projected 2027 AFFO, and highlighted investor concern over potential international expansion, including reported interest in TDF Infrastructure that AMT has not confirmed.
For Crown Castle, Barclays models $4.83 AFFO per share in 2026, below consensus, and lowered its target to $101 on a 19 times 2027 multiple. It noted CCI has the largest EchoStar exposure, though its pure US footprint may support a relative premium over time.
Barclays kept SBA Communications at Overweight with a $212 target, saying SBAC faces fewer headline risks even as it factors earlier churn from EchoStar into its forecasts.
