China Exports Unexpectedly Slide To Worst Since Feb As Global Trade Pressure Mounts

Good morning, this is Alex Gabriel Simon, an equities reporter in Mumbai. November is proving tough for Indian equities, with key benchmarks on track for a second straight week of losses. The downbeat mood mirrors weakness across Asia, as regional markets track overnight declines on Wall Street, where stocks slumped amid worries over stretched AI valuations and a cooling labor market. The pullback in Indian shares follows last month's rally that brought the Nifty index within a whisker of its record high from September last year. With the earnings season drawing to a close, traders are now watching for a thaw in India—US relations after President Donald Trump said he would visit India at the urging of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Reliance Jio's IPO journey gains pace

It's been a long wait for Reliance Industries investors looking for value unlocks through public listings of the oil-to-retail giant's various units. So, news that investment bankers are proposing a valuation of as much as $170 billion for its telecom arm, Jio, should be music to their ears — especially since Mukesh Ambani first spoke of a potential IPO back in 2019. The planned share sale would mark Reliance's first public offering of a major business unit since Reliance Petroleum's debut in 2006. At the proposed valuation, Jio would rank among India's two or three largest companies by market value.

SBI-Amundi unit plans IPO as sector in focus

Staying with the IPO story, the stock market's lacklustre performance this year has not dulled the excitement in the money management industry. New foreign players are seeking entry, while steady domestic flows show retail investors' confidence and patience in India's growth story. Banking on that optimism is SBI Funds Management, India's top fund house, which plans to sell about 10% of its holding through an IPO. Currently, SBI holds 61.91% and Amundi owns 36.36%. The sentiment around the offering could be a litmus test for broader market confidence and expectation of continuing flows into local mutual funds amid rising competition.

Quick-commerce discounts rise, margins shrink

While fund managers rush to cash in on investor enthusiasm, a different competition is playing out in India's quick commerce scene. A mystery shopping survey by Jefferies found rising discounts across most product categories, with Amazon Now offering the juiciest deals, followed by DMart Ready and Swiggy MaxxSaver. Interestingly, market leader Blinkit did not have the lowest price on any item in Jefferies' sample basket. The findings show how India's quick commerce race is getting tougher, as platforms chase users and market share instead of profits.

Just when it seemed that bulls would take the Nifty 50 index to a record high, bears have managed to claw back some ground. The gauge has slipped more than 2% from its October peak, falling in four of its last five sessions. Technical analysts see some relief around the corner as the 100-day moving average and a falling trendline could provide support for the index. While global risk-off cues have weighed on sentiment, bulls are betting that the final leg of the results season might yet offer a silver lining in what's shaping up to be a rough November for stocks.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Tech Workers Hit Hard as Layoffs Soar to 22-Year October High

Nasdaq Plunges as Valuation Fears Resurface

Musk's Sky-High Pay Package Approved Despite Market Turmoil

Trump Administration Rules Out Federal AI Bailouts

Gulf States Double Down on AI as Oil Revenue Shrinks

Source: CNBC

Spending Rises, But Below Forecast Amid Sectoral Weakness

Inflation Persists, Wages Struggle to Keep Up

New Government Moves to Cushion Inflation Pain

Policy Challenges Persist as GDP Report Looms

Source: Bloomberg

French officials recently divulged that their upcoming supercarrier will sport even greater enhancements than initially outlined. The future Porte-avions de nouvelle génération will enter service with the French Navy by the late 2030s and is set to replace the European nation's Charles de Gaulle carrier.

France's Porte-avions de Nouvelle Supercarrier

News surrounding France's new warship endeavor is significant, especially considering France is the only nation other than the United States that operates a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. Over the summer, a French Navy official revealed renderings of what the new supercarrier's air wing could achieve. At the Combined Naval Event, conducted under Chatham House rules, three images were displayed. They depicted the existing Rafale M multirole fighter and the E-2D Hawkeye airborne early warning and control aircraft, positioned on the flight deck next to rotary-wing drones. While the unmanned aerial vehicles appear to be the Airbus Helicopters VSR700 in the renderings, these drones may serve as a representation for upcoming autonomous platforms.

France's enhancements to its Porte-avions do not end with the incorporation of highly specialized support drones as part of its air wing. French officials also detailed last month their plans to procure a third Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) catapult track from the United States. According to the 2026 draft budget document released in October, "funding for the third catapult track and the data-centric upgrade of the Combat Management System (CMS) in its incremental development approach is provided under the additional funding requested by the President of the Republic during his speech on July 13, 2025." As French president Emmanuel Macron spelled out, "To be free in this world, we need to be feared." The supercarrier with EMALS would certainly contribute to this goal. Specifically, the EMALS combined with the new Advanced Arresting Gear (AAG) will enable the French carrier to launch more on the Charles de Gaulle.

How Does Porte-avions de Nouvelle Compare to the Ford-class?

While the Porte-avions de nouvelle is expected to play a leading role in carrier power projection capabilities across the globe, the supercarrier will not represent the only "next-gen" warship in service. The US Navy already fields the USS Gerald R. Ford, the lead ship of its newest Ford-class of aircraft carriers. Equipped with technologies and capabilities that make it more efficient than its Nimitz predecessor, the Ford carriers are truly top-notch. Perhaps most significantly, these warships will feature EMALS and AAGs, which will allow them to launch 25 percent more sorties than previous classes. Additionally, the Ford carriers are able to generate triple the amount of electrical power as the Nimitz ships due to their cutting-edge Bechtel A1B reactor. USS Ford has already been deployed to the United States Central Command area of operations and is currently transiting the Caribbean Sea as part of the Trump administration's anti-drug trafficking strategy.

While France's upcoming supercarrier will undoubtedly be top-of-the-line, the US Navy is planning to introduce an additional nine Ford-class ships over the next decade, and for this reason, it will have an edge over its Western ally.

Source: The National Interest

European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujcic repeated his view that current policy is "in a good place," adding that "we feel that we have done our job" after lowering inflation to the ECB's target without provoking a recession.

The Croatian official's remarks Thursday, at an event in Miami, come a week after the ECB left borrowing costs untouched for a third meeting, satisfied that monetary-policy settings are appropriate to keep prices under control and aren't weighing on the economy.

With inflation near the 2% target and gross domestic product beating expectations in the third quarter, analysts and investors don't anticipate any imminent changes to the deposit rate, which has been lowered eight times this cycle, to 2% from 4%.

December's final policy meeting of the year will bring more insight into the likely path for inflation as the ECB updates its quarterly projections, with some officials concerned the outlook will signal undershoots for the next three years.

Vujcic pointed, however, to risks to the European economy. That included worries over fiscal discipline among the eurozone's member governments and signs of over-valuation in financial markets. He pointed specifically to retail funds outperforming hedge funds as a troubling signal.

"That's usually a sign that something's coming that's not very good," he said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

As Half Yours' forged ahead to take the Melbourne Cup, RBA Governor Bullock and the Monetary Policy Board (MPB) made clear they are not willing to gamble on inflation's return to target, opting to keep the cash rate on hold at 3.6% at their November meeting. The unanimous decision came as no surprise to market participants after annual trimmed mean inflation printed at 3.0%yr in Q3.

The MPB conceded that some of this acceleration was due to "temporary factors", but there was also "evidence of more persistence". The RBA's revised forecasts now see the unemployment rate at 4.4% over the forecast horizon (up from 4.3%), while underlying inflation holds above the mid-point of the target range through 2026, then draws close in 2027.

Highlighted by Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis in this week's video update, with policy only mildly restrictive, the RBA can afford to keep the cash rate at current levels while it assesses the inflation trend for a couple more quarters without too much of a risk to activity. We expect two more 25bp rate cuts from the RBA, but not until May and August next year.

Turning to the outlook for the consumer. Our card activity data continues to point to a solid uptrend in consumer demand; however, the Q3 update on household spending muddied the waters, real spending surprising to the downside with a meagre 0.2% lift compared to Q2's 0.9% gain. The susceptibility of household demand to sentiment and the cost of living was also called out by the RBA's latest business liaison which characterised consumers as "value conscious".

We will receive a full update on consumer demand and household finances in the National Accounts release on 3 December, but this will only be for Q3. We may not get a full picture on the susceptibility of consumer demand to changing interest rate expectations until early-to-mid-2026.

The uncertainty over the timing and scale of further interest rate cuts notwithstanding, October's Cotality data points to household wealth compounding at a rapid rate, with home prices across the major capital cities growing at a circa 12% annualised pace during the 3 months to October. The RBA believes these gains may boost spending in time. That said, one household's gain is another's loss vis a vis affordability; and an increase in spending ahead of income requires a willingness to dissave or take on additional debt.

Bear in mind as well that the support afforded by rate cuts and policy measures such as the recent roll-out of the First Homebuyer Guarantee Scheme will fade in coming months as prices move higher. Tight supply, however, will remain a support for price growth for the foreseeable future.

Offshore, the data flow was again light as the current US Government shutdown became the longest ever. The ISM manufacturing and service PMIs point to soggy conditions, the headline indexes remaining below average and the employment measures consistent with an outright reduction in headcount in October. Challenger job cuts also spiked to the highest October reading in over 20 years, taking year-to-date job losses above 1 million. Challenger, Gray and Christmas report that the reductions have been concentrated in technology and warehousing and are in part due to AI adoption. Note that this measure is an estimate of gross job cuts. ADP private payrolls is, in contrast, a measure of net job creation. The latter survey reported a 42k job gain in October, leaving the 6-month average at a modest, but positive, 20k. Apart from Governor Miran, Fed speakers this week kept their options open for the December meeting, continuing to raise concerns over inflation risks as well as threats to the labour market.

Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee left the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.0%. The decision was a 5-4 split decision, and the communications carried a dovish tone. The minutes revealed that among the five members in the majority, four were concerned about the persistence of inflation. One member, Governor Bailey, judged that slack in the UK economy is rising; however, he preferred to "wait and see if the durability of disinflation is confirmed". The forward guidance was explicit, stating that "Bank Rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path" if the disinflationary process continues.

There were few changes to the BoE's forecasts. CPI inflation is expected to fall below 3% around Q2 next year, then return to around 2% in Q2 2027 – a very similar path the August projection. GDP growth is expected to remain in the 1–1.5% range until early 2027, with some acceleration towards a 2% pace from late-2027. With Governor Bailey likely to favour a cut if current trends persist, we now anticipate a further 25bp policy easing at the MPC's final meeting of the year in December and a 25bp rate cut per quarter through the first half of 2026.

Source: MarketPulse by OANDA Group