Britain's Economic Crisis Offers an Opportunity for New Ideas – Labour Must Be Ready

Summary:

Just as the neoliberals took advantage of the mess of the 70s, so the left can offer its own radical solutions for today's turmoil.

When Liz Truss and her chancellor drew up the policies that crashed the pound and threatened pension funds, they were working to a blueprint devised in the Hotel du Parc of Mont-Pèlerin in 1947.

Among those gathered were the economists Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman and the philosopher Karl Popper, and they were profoundly depressed. "The central values of civilisation are in danger," they declared, caused by a "decline of belief in private property and the competitive market" after the Great Depression and world wars. They fleshed out a belief that the state and collectivism were mortal threats to the individual's ability to succeed: Margaret Thatcher and her would-be torchbearer Truss would come to follow it with zeal.

The neoliberals, as they became known, used their political exile wisely, going on to found thinktanks such as the Institute of Economic Affairs and the Adam Smith Institute to lay the intellectual foundations and find funders. But what these ideologues really needed was turmoil. "Only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real change," Friedman observed. "When the crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas laying around."

In a foreshadowing of today, the surging inflation of the 1970s – back then, spurred on by a massive oil shock – offered that opportunity. As unions went on strike to defend falling real wages, Thatcher cleverly wove a story of individual effort stifled by the state. "We believe that everyone has the right to be unequal," she declared, arguing that while ordinary workers were crucial to society, there were "others with special gifts who should also have their chance". That meant slashing taxes for the rich, flogging off state assets and hobbling trade unions in the name of liberty.

In the eyes of Truss, Thatcher's prescriptions freed Britain from the corset of socialism and ushered in a new age of prosperity – and so a return to her vision will end the same way. The problem is, it was all a myth. Despite the lifeline offered by the discovery of North Sea oil, economic growth in the 1980s was no greater than the crisis-ridden 1970s, just less equitably distributed.

One rare defender of our current prime minister – from the Institute of Economic Affairs, obviously – beseeched her to stay the course, arguing that early Thatcherism was savaged just as Trussonomics is now, but that it paved the way for the growth of the following decade. A nonsense: the average annual economic expansion in the 90s was the lowest of any postwar decade up to that point, and the next two decades were weaker still. The best performing decade was the 1960s – the heyday of statism. The legacy of Thatcherism was an economy too dependent on the City of London, with communities stripped of secure work, creaking infrastructure and public services, and an explosion of inequality.

When the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, talks of Britain's "cycle of stagnation", and Truss damns the "business-as-usual economic management" that has delivered low growth for decades, both are right. But it is the ideas of the Mont Pelerin Society to blame. Slashing corporation tax will punch a £18.7bn-size hole in the nation's revenues, but trickle-down theory says it will pay for itself with investment. But as the former chancellor Rishi Sunak has said, "that low corporation tax rate we had has done absolutely zilch for investment in our economy, it has not increased, it is still one of the lowest in the developed world: it accounts for over half our productivity difference."

Just as the winter of discontent became a salutary fable about the dangers of collectivism, "that time the Tories crashed the economy by slashing taxes on the rich" should become an eternal warning hung around the neck of rightwing dogmas. Any attempt to repeat this failed experiment should conjure up images of economic ruin.

Here's an opportunity for Labour. Unlike Thatcher, Truss has no electoral mandate, limited support from MPs, no North Sea oil or Falklands war, and the communication skills of an unprepared supply teacher. But Friedman was right – in a crisis, radical change depends on the ideas lying around. Labour has made some good tentative steps in the right direction, from nationalisation of rail to a sovereign wealth fund to a public energy generation company. But now's the time to go further.

Instead of old-style top-down nationalisation, Labour could argue for democratic public ownership, where workers and communities own public utilities. Taxes on wealth and income could fund devastated public services, and fix inequalities that even the International Monetary Fund now recognises destabilise the economy. A new charter of rights for trade unions and higher wages could stop the wealth generated by workers being hoovered up by a tiny few, stashed away in tax havens. A Swiss dream became our nightmare – but their hubris will only truly meet its nemesis if Labour has the same courage and determination as the true believers of Mont Pelerin.

Source: The Guardain

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As Asia's Borrowers Turn Homeward, Local Bond Issuance Surges

Owen Li

Asian issuance of bonds denominated in local currencies have ballooned to their largest in more than a decade as borrowers turn shy of expensive U.S. dollar debt and tap cheaper, liquid markets at home.

A total of $2.65 trillion has been raised in Asia excluding Japan and Australia via 12,075 local currency bond issues by September, data from Refinitiv showed.

That reflects a roughly 10 per cent increase in proceeds from a year earlier and the highest for the year-to-date period in over a decade.

Of this, 47.2 per cent came from government issuers, at $1.25 trillion across 2,057 issues. This was followed by the financials sector, constituting 31.2 per cent, or $825.78 billion, from 5,419 issuances.

"Local currency markets are more peculiarly insulated from what's happening on the global front," said Wong Kwok Kuan, managing director and regional head of debt markets at Maybank Investment Banking Group.

The Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates by 300 basis points (bps) since the start of the year, taking the Fed funds target rate above 3 per cent. The latest projections show that rate rising to 4.25 per cent-4.5 per cent by the end of 2022.

That frenetic pace of rate rises makes local currency bonds relatively cheaper to issue than dollar bonds, particularly as the dollar scales multi-year highs and weakens local currencies.

Meanwhile, rate hikes in Asia have generally been more subdued.

Bank Indonesia, for instance, only began hiking in August and has raised rates by a total of 75 bps. The Philippine central bank has increased rates by 225 bps since May and the Bank of Thailand has hiked by 25 bps twice, in August and September.

Andrew Lim, regional head of debt capital markets at Maybank Investment Banking Group, pointed to how the U.S. dollar capital market had also "seen periods where it was shut given the macro volatility", causing corporates to look onshore.

Palatable Cost

Indonesian company Mandiri Tunas Finance, which is majority-owned by Bank Mandiri, raised 376.615 billion rupiah ($24.80 million) of 5-year bonds at 6.75 per cent in February. In August 2020, it paid 8.6 per cent on 5-year bonds.

Yields on the 5-year U.S. Treasuries have risen from about 0.4 per cent in December 2020 to about 3.8 per cent currently. Credit bonds are typically priced on spreads over sovereign bonds.

The yield on Asian investment grade corporate dollar bonds is now at 5.8 per cent, up 300 bps this year.

The spurt in local bond issuance has also been spurred by a growing appetite for such bonds, as domestic investors – typically the main buyers – hunt for opportunities to stay invested at home.

"The local currency markets are well supported by domestic institutional investors such as life insurance companies and asset managers, as they have local currency assets and specific mandates to deploy into these markets," said Edmund Leong, UOB's head of group investment banking.

Thailand-headquartered Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited successfully issued debentures totalling 35 billion baht ($940 million) in August, of which 11 billion baht was distributed to high net worth investors, banks, insurance and securities firms.

To be sure, investors say that the volume and amounts raised from issuances this year are not surprising, and reflect steady growth in markets over the past years.

From 2020 to 2021, the total amount raised from local currency bonds issued in Asia, excluding Japan and Australia, increased by nearly 15 per cent, and from 2019 to 2020, proceeds were nearly 30 per cent higher.

Even as rates rise, issuers are expected to continue tapping domestic markets for refinancing of existing debt and other capital requirements.

"I'd say financing costs remain within expectations, palatable," said Leonard Kwan, portfolio manager of T. Rowe Price's dynamic emerging markets bond strategy.

"For the most part, it would still be cheaper to finance domestically, even at current higher rates, than external markets."

($1 = 15,185.0000 rupiah)

($1 = 37.2300 baht)

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

MENA Emerges as World's Fastest-Growing Crypto Adopter

Kevin Du

The Middle East and North Africa are the world's fastest-growing cryptocurrency markets, with the volume of crypto received in the region jumping 48 per cent in the year to June, blockchain researcher Chainalysis said in a report on Wednesday.

While the MENA region is one of the smallest crypto markets, its growth to $566 billion received in cryptocurrency between July 2021 and June 2022 shows adoption is rising rapidly.

MENA Emerges as World's Fastest-Growing Crypto Adopter_1

Latin America saw the second biggest growth in the same period, at 40 per cent. North America was next at 36 per cent growth, followed closely by Central and Southern Asia and Oceania at 35 per cent growth, Chainalysis said.

Three MENA countries are among the top 30 in Chainalysis' 2022 Global Crypto Adoption Index, with Turkey in 12th place, Egypt taking the 14th spot and Morocco 24th.

"In Turkey and Egypt, fluctuating cryptocurrency prices have coincided with rapid fiat (traditional) currency devaluations, strengthening the appeal of crypto for savings preservation," Chainalysis said.

The Turkish lira has weakened nearly 30 per cent this year to new record-lows, after losing 44 per cent of its value last year amid a currency crisis triggered by rate cuts.

Turkey tops the MENA region in terms of value of crypto received by far, having received $192 billion worth of crypto in the year to end-June, though only saw 10.5 per cent year-on-year growth.

Egypt's currency has also lost about a quarter of its value against the dollar at the start of the year.

"Remittance payments account for about 8 per cent of Egypt's GDP, and the country's national bank has already begun a project to build a crypto-based remittance corridor between Egypt and the UAE, where many Egyptian natives work," Chainalysis said.

The six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council "seldom make it to the top of our grassroots crypto adoption index, as it weighs countries by purchasing power parity per capita, which favours poorer nations," Chainalysis said.

MENA Emerges as World's Fastest-Growing Crypto Adopter_2

"Nevertheless, their role in the crypto ecosystem should not be underestimated. Saudi Arabia, for example, is the third-largest crypto market in all of MENA, and UAE is fifth."

Afghanistan, which was 20th in Chainalysis' adoption index last year, has tumbled to the bottom of the list as Taliban authorities have "equated crypto to gambling," which is forbidden in Islam, Chainalysis said.

From November 2021 to now, Afghanistan-based users received less than $80,000 in crypto a month on average from $68 million a month on average before the Taliban's takeover, Chainalysis said.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

New Zealand's Central Bank Lifts Rates to Seven-Year High in Hawkish Rush

Owen Li

New Zealand's central bank on Wednesday (Oct 5) lifted interest rates to a seven-year high, and promised more pain to come, as it struggles to cool red-hot inflation in an over-stretched economy.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) policy committee raised its official cash rate by 50 basis points to 3.5%, the fifth such outsized move and the eighth hike in 12 months.

The committee even debated whether to hike by 75 basis points given intense price pressures in the economy, but decided on a half-point move.

"The committee agreed it remains appropriate to continue to tighten monetary conditions at pace to maintain price stability and contribute to maximum sustainable employment," said RBNZ governor Adrian Orr in a statement.

"Core consumer price inflation is too high and labour resources are scarce."

The hawkish commentary contrasted with a dovish turn by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which downshifted to a quarter-point hike in its policy meeting on Tuesday.

Investors reacted by pushing the kiwi dollar up 0.9% to US$0.5782, while two-year swap rates rose six basis points to 4.51%. Rates fell 25 basis points on Tuesday in the largest daily dive since 2001.

Markets were pricing in a better than 60% chance the RBNZ would hike by another 50 basis points in its next meeting in November, and see rates peaking at 4.5% by May.

Punchy

"The statement was punchy and hawkish, and highlighted the need to demand-destruct inflation back to the target," said Jarrod Kerr, the chief economist of Kiwibank.

"More rate rises are required for mandates to be met," he added. "We continue to forecast a peak in this cycle of 4%. Although the risk is clearly tilted towards even more policy tightening to 4.5%."

Kerr warned that mortgage payments had yet to catch up with the cash rate, and would put a heavy burden on household spending in the coming months.

Minutes of the RBNZ meeting showed that the committee was aware of lags in monetary policy transmission and a slow pass-through to retail interest rates, which argued against a hike of 75 basis points.

Inflation was already at a 30-year high of 7.3% in the second quarter and is set to rise further, while unemployment was near historic lows of 3.3%.

The island nation of five million is desperately short of workers with migration flows yet to recover after a long pandemic shutdown.

An influential survey of business conditions out this week showed that firms were downbeat on the outlook with capacity constraints the main headache.

Rising costs were reported by 74% of respondents, while 43% cited finding labour as the major drag on their business.

"The signals on capacity and inflation pressures are most important for the RBNZ right now," said Miles Workman, a senior economist at ANZ. "Capacity constraints easing at a snail's pace isn't enough to get core inflation back to an acceptable level in an appropriate time frame."

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

European Shares Retreat on Recession Fears; Focus on U.S. Jobs Data

Devin

European shares fell on Wednesday, snapping a three-day rally after data showed euro zone was unlikely to avoid a recession, with investor focus on U.S. labour market report for clues on further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index was down 0.95% by 0824 GMT, after rallying more than 5% in the previous three sessions.

The index had logged its best one-day performance since mid-March on Tuesday after weaker U.S. manufacturing data, shrinking U.S. job openings and a smaller-than-expected rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia spurred hopes that central banks globally could shift to less-aggressive rate hikes in future.

All eyes are on U.S private payrolls numbers for September due at 1215 GMT and the closely watched nonfarm jobs report expected on Friday for further evidence on that narrative.

"(Today) is a realization that it's still too early to conclude the pivot is coming," said Azad Zangana, senior European economist and strategist at Schroders.

"We are waiting for the nonfarm payrolls jobs data to give us a better idea of where we are at and whether the tightening that we have had so far is starting to have a material impact on the economic outlook."

Latest data showed euro zone business activity contracted for a third month in September, dashing any hopes the currency union avoids recession.

"In Europe, it's more of a question of where we are at now in the cycle. The ECB is raising rates quite aggressively and are expected to do so even if we enter a recession in the near-term because inflation is becoming more of an issue in Europe," Zangana added.

The STOXX 600 index has fallen 18.2% so far this year as the region grapples with an energy crisis exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and concerns about an economic downturn with aggressive policy moves by the U.S. Fed and other central banks to quell inflation.

All the STOXX 600's sectoral indexes fell, with telecom, banks and automobiles down between 2% and 2.9%.

Among single stocks, Tesco dipped 2.5% after Britain's biggest retailer expects its full-year core profit to be around the lower end of its previous forecast, saying there were significant uncertainties over the macro-outlook.

Shares of Bachem Holding AG gained 4.1% as the biotech supplier floated plans to build a third site in Switzerland.

Carl Zeiss Meditec rose 2.3% after Berenberg upgraded the German medical tech company's stock to "buy" from "hold", citing likely annual sales beat and appealing valuation.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

South Korea Faces Growing Calls to Acquire Nuclear Weapons

Kevin Du

South Korea is facing growing calls to acquire nuclear weapons irrespective of ideological dogma. Such calls are being fueled by North Korea's growing nuclear menace and misgivings about the U.S.' extended deterrence if Pyongyang decides to attack its southern neighbor.

"There has been a nuclear taboo ― a normative inhibition against the first use of nuclear weapons ― but Russia is about to break it in its war against Ukraine, thereby stoking concerns among countries, (including South Korea) that do not have their own nuclear weapons," said Go Myong-hyun, a senior fellow of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

Go added that, despite Russia's threat to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, the United States and NATO were poised to respond to it with conventional weapons, with many South Koreans fearful of Washington's possible half-hearted response to North Korea's possible nuclear attack against the South.

Cheong Seong-chang, the director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute, also said that the growing interest in the development of a domestic nuclear weapons program comes as the U.S.' steadfast nuclear retaliation, in the case of North Korea using nuclear weapons against South Korea, appears uncertain.

"Even though the allies held an Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG) meeting in September, for the first time in nearly five years, they failed to reach an agreement on the U.S.' immediate and automatic retaliation in response to a North Korean nuclear attack against the South," Cheong said.

The EDSCG, a high-level consultative mechanism to achieve North Korean denuclearization through steadfast deterrence, was held in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 16, but its joint statement merely stipulated that North Korea would face an "overwhelming and decisive" response in the event of a nuclear attack.

"North Korea has made significant progress in the development of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, so it seems that our trust in the U.S. nuclear umbrella, aimed at ensuring deterrence against nuclear threats, has been eroded," Cheong said.

According to a recent poll by the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University, more than half of South Koreans, or 55.5 percent, supported the development of a domestic nuclear weapons program, with 92.5 percent of 1,200 respondents believing that North Korea will not abandon its nuclear program.

In that respect, calls for an independent nuclear arsenal have been reignited amid an accelerated buildup of North Korea's nuclear weapons.

"Ukraine was the world's third-largest nuclear power, but it disarmed its nuclear weapons following security assurances from the U.S., Britain and Russia and as a result, Ukraine is now facing Russia's nuclear attack," Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo said on Facebook, Wednesday

In 2017, Hong, who was the leader of the Liberty Korea Party, the predecessor of the current ruling People Power Party, claimed that South Korea should acquire nuclear weapons if it is to negotiate with North Korea on an equal footing.

"Amid the U.S. and British struggle to effectively deal with Russia's nuclear aggression, if North Korea uses nuclear weapons against us, while declaring its attacks against the U.S. and Japan, could they retaliate against the North with nuclear arsenals?" Hong added.

He added, "It is time for a full review of our nuclear strategy against North Korea's nuclear weapons."

Former Korea Foundation President Lee Geun, a professor at Seoul National University's Graduate School of International Studies, recently presented a similar view.

"Now, we need to acknowledge the irreversibility of North Korea's nuclear weapons policy and think about our nuclear power strategy in preparation for this," he said on Facebook.

Referring to President Yoon Suk-yeol's remarks in his speech marking Armed Forces Day, Saturday, that North Korea's nuclear weapons development defies the international nonproliferation treaty, Lee also said, "Such a political statement sounds unrealistic and is just empty rhetoric."

Until now, any mention of acquiring nuclear weapons has been considered taboo within the South Korean government, given that it would result in significant costs while bringing about limited benefits for the country.

Go said developing a South Korean nuclear weapons program would result in an "invisible" high opportunity cost beyond punitive measures meted out by the international community.

"Many believe that South Korea's acquisition of nuclear weapons could lead to the international community placing sanctions on the nation, but as we witnessed in India's case, it would barely impose any punitive measures on us in consideration of the country's role and status in the international community," he said.

"Rather, the move would undermine South Korea's alliance with the U.S., because the alliance is based on Washington's provision of its nuclear umbrella in a way, but South Korea's development of independent nuclear weapons could break up the alliance and that is why we have yet to be enthusiastic about acquiring nuclear weapons."

Go added, "What would China prefer, between a nuclear-armed South Korea and a South Korea without its alliance with the U.S., given that Beijing is already surrounded by countries with nuclear weapons?"

In that sense, Go believes that the reintroduction of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula is a better option. The U.S. removed tactical nuclear weapons from South Korea in 1991.

"The return of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons will ensure a stable South Korea-U.S. alliance, while strengthening their response to North Korea's nuclear threats," he said.

In a new development, South Korea and the U.S. fired four surface-to-surface missiles into the East Sea on Wednesday morning in response to North Korea's intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) launch.

The two sides each launched two Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles, which precisely hit mock targets and demonstrated the allies' deterrence capability, according to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).

Meanwhile, the South Korean military fired one Hyunmoo-2 ballistic missile, but it fell inside the base where it was launched after an abnormal flight.

Source: TheKoreaTimes

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

OPEC+ Heads for Deep Supply Cuts, Clash with U.S.

Damon

OPEC+ looks set for deep cuts to its oil output targets when it meets on Wednesday, curbing supply in an already tight market despite pressure from the United States and others to pump more.

The potential OPEC+ cut could spur a recovery in oil prices that have dropped to about $90 from $120 three months ago due to fears of a global economic recession, rising U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar.

OPEC+, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, is working on cuts of 1-2 million barrels per day, sources told Reuters, with several sources saying cuts could be closer to 2 million.

The United States is pushing OPEC not to proceed with the cuts arguing that fundamentals don't support them, a source familiar with the matter said.

Sources said it remained unclear if cuts could include additional voluntary reductions by members such as Saudi Arabia or if cuts could include existing under-production by the group.

OPEC+ fell about 3.6 million bpd short of its output target in August.

Washington Reaction

"Higher oil prices, if driven by sizeable production cuts,

would likely irritate the Biden Administration ahead of U.S. mid-term elections," Citi analysts said in a note.

"There could be further political reactions from the U.S., including additional releases of strategic stocks along with some wildcards including further fostering of a NOPEC bill," Citi said, referring to a U.S. anti-trust bill against OPEC.

JP Morgan also said it expected Washington to put in place countermeasures by releasing more oil stocks.

Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC+ - which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia - have said they seek to prevent volatility rather than to target a particular oil price.

Benchmark Brent crude traded flat at below $92 per barrel on Wednesday after rising on Tuesday.

The West has accused Russia of weaponising energy, creating a crisis in Europe that could trigger gas and power rationing this winter.

Moscow accuses the West of weaponising the dollar and financial systems such as SWIFT in retaliation for Russia sending troops into Ukraine in February. The West accuses Moscow of invading Ukraine while Russia calls it a special military operation.

Part of the reason Washington wants lower oil prices is to deprive Moscow of oil revenue while Saudi Arabia has not condemned Moscow's actions.

Relations have been strained between the kingdom and the administration of Biden, who travelled to Riyadh this year but failed to secure any firm cooperation commitments on energy.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

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Britain's Economic Crisis Offers an Opportunity for New Ideas – Labour Must Be Ready

Source: The Guardain

As Asia's Borrowers Turn Homeward, Local Bond Issuance Surges

Palatable Cost

Source: Reuters

MENA Emerges as World's Fastest-Growing Crypto Adopter

Source: Reuters

New Zealand's Central Bank Lifts Rates to Seven-Year High in Hawkish Rush

Punchy

Source: Reuters

European Shares Retreat on Recession Fears; Focus on U.S. Jobs Data

Source: Reuters

South Korea Faces Growing Calls to Acquire Nuclear Weapons

Source: TheKoreaTimes

OPEC+ Heads for Deep Supply Cuts, Clash with U.S.

Washington Reaction

Source: Reuters

Risk Disclosure

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Tensions in Northern Myanmar

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Britain's Economic Crisis Offers an Opportunity for New Ideas – Labour Must Be Ready

Source: The Guardain

As Asia's Borrowers Turn Homeward, Local Bond Issuance Surges

Palatable Cost

Source: Reuters

MENA Emerges as World's Fastest-Growing Crypto Adopter

Source: Reuters

New Zealand's Central Bank Lifts Rates to Seven-Year High in Hawkish Rush

Punchy

Source: Reuters

European Shares Retreat on Recession Fears; Focus on U.S. Jobs Data

Source: Reuters

South Korea Faces Growing Calls to Acquire Nuclear Weapons

Source: TheKoreaTimes

OPEC+ Heads for Deep Supply Cuts, Clash with U.S.

Washington Reaction

Source: Reuters

Risk Disclosure