Trump Asks Court to Pause Order Letting Cook Stay at Fed

Central Bank

Political

Summary:

The Justice Department on Thursday asked a three-judge panel in Washington to grant a so-called stay order that most likely would allow Trump’s firing of Cook to take effect before the president’s appeal is formally heard.

President Donald Trump asked a federal appeals court to immediately pause a lower court decision blocking his ouster of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, the latest sign that the administration wants to put the case on a fast track to the US Supreme Court.

The administration asked for a ruling by Monday, one day before the Fed’s board starts meeting to vote whether to lower interest rates. Cook can attend the meeting as long as the ruling remains in place.

If the appeals court denies the Justice Department’s request to immediately intervene, the president is likely to quickly ask the Supreme Court to hear the case.

Trump seeks to overturn a decision by US District Judge Jia Cobb, who ruled he likely did not have “cause” under the Federal Reserve Act to fire Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud before her 2022 Senate confirmation. Cobb also held that Trump likely violated Cook’s constitutional right to due process by attempting to fire her via a social media post that did not give her a meaningful opportunity to challenge the allegations.

“Even with the Federal Reserve’s unique structure and history, its governors are subject to removal for cause, and the president’s actions to remove Cook based on her misconduct should strengthen, not diminish, the Federal Reserve’s integrity,” the Justice Department said in the filing.

Cook’s lawyer did not immediately respond to a message seeking comment. The Fed hasn’t taken a side in the legal fight and has said it will respect the court’s decision.

Such stays are typically granted on an emergency basis if the judges believe an appeal will ultimately succeed on the merits and the party asking for it will face “irreparable harm” without immediate action. It’s unclear how quickly the appeals court panel will be able to rule.

Trump said last month he was firing Cook after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte accused her of fraudulently listing homes in Michigan and Georgia as a “primary residence” when she obtained mortgages in 2021 to secure more favorable terms on loans. Pulte later added a claim involving a third mortgage in Massachusetts.

Cook has alleged that Trump’s move to remove her is part of a politically motivated pattern, and that allowing him to oust her could undermine the public’s faith in the Fed and do lasting damage to the US economy.

Source: Bloomberg

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin (BTC) must hold the $114,000 level to attract investors’ confidence and new liquidity to breach the narrow $110,000-$116,000 range.

According to a Sept. 11 report by Glassnode, BTC has been stuck in the “air gap” range following its mid-August peak. The trading range threatens to stall the current rally.

In the current landscape, Bitcoin faces mounting pressure from conflicting forces as recent buyers realize losses while earlier investors take profits.

The report noted three distinct investor cohorts shaping current price action. The first are top-buyers over the past three months holding positions near $113,800, while the second consists of dip-buyers clustering around $112,800.

The third cohort, comprising short-term holders from the past six months, is anchored near $108,300, creating defined support and resistance zones.

The rebound from $108,000 exposed underlying market stress. Seasoned short-term holders realized approximately $189 million in daily profits, representing 79% of all short-term holder gains. The investors who bought during the February-May dips used recent strength to exit positions profitably.

Loss realization weighs on recovery

Recent top buyers compounded selling pressure by realizing daily losses of up to $152 million during the same period. This behavior mirrors stress patterns observed in April 2024 and January 2025, when peak buyers capitulated under similar circumstances.

Net Realized Profit as a share of market cap peaked at 0.065% during August’s rally before trending lower. While current levels remain elevated, the metric suggests inflows provide diminishing support compared to earlier phases of the cycle.

US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) net flows dropped sharply since early August, hovering near 500 BTC daily, compared to the robust inflows that fueled previous rallies.

The slowdown removes a critical pillar of institutional demand that drove Bitcoin’s ascent through 2024.

Derivatives providing stability

With spot flows weakening, derivatives markets assumed greater importance in price formation. Volume Delta Bias recovered during the bounce from $108,000, indicating seller exhaustion across major futures venues, including Binance and Bybit.

The 3-month annualized futures basis remains below 10% despite higher prices, reflecting measured demand for leverage without speculative excess.

Perpetual futures volume stays muted, consistent with post-euphoric market phases rather than aggressive speculation.

Bitcoin options open interest reached record highs as institutions increasingly use derivatives for risk management through protective puts and covered calls. Meanwhile, implied volatility continues to decline, signaling market maturation and reduced speculative positioning.

With these metrics as a backdrop, reclaiming $114,000 decisively would restore top-buyer profitability and attract fresh institutional capital.

Failure to hold this level risks renewed pressure on short-term holders, with $108,300 and ultimately $93,000 serving as critical downside targets where major supply clusters await.

Source: Cryptoslate

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Manuel

Commodity

Political

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright downplayed the risks of climate change as he promoted Washington's return to a "commonsense energy policy" on Thursday, while the Trump administration worked to boost oil and gas sales to Europe and other allies.

Wright spoke to reporters after meeting the European Union's energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen in Brussels. U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has also been in Europe this week aiming to seal energy supply deals that Washington hopes will strengthen its influence in the region while weakening Russia's.

Wright said the benefits of stable energy from fossil fuels offset any risks, adding that the rise of natural gas production was the "biggest driver of decarbonisation" in the United States, which is rolling back on renewables projects such as offshore windfarms.

His comments reflect the degree to which the Trump administration is at odds with the United Nations, global scientists and the EU, which has put emissions targets at the heart of policy-making.

Natural gas burns cleaner than coal but still produces significant carbon emissions from smokestacks, and methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from leaks.

Wright questioned the urgency of climate change and its impact on human life.

"We kind of struggle to find what is it from climate change that's causing greater risks to humans," he said. "A warmer, wetter world is more conducive to growing crops."

Despite global evidence to the contrary, Wright said there was no upward or downward trend in the frequency of extreme weather events, and that protections offered by petrochemicals, such as clothing and heating, meant deaths from such events had fallen over time.

More than 100 people including children at a summer camp died during catastrophic flooding in Texas after extreme rain in July. Climate scientists have warned the risk of extreme rain is increasing due to warming global temperatures.

Reinsurance company Swiss Re (SRENH.S), said in an April report that total losses from natural catastrophes - not all climate related - and including those not covered by insurance, came in at $318 billion in 2024 up from $292 billion in 2023 and significantly above longer-term averages. The report said the effects of climate change played a role in "compounding losses".

"The impact of hydrocarbons, I would say, has been massively larger at making safer, longer, healthier lives. It's causing some warming, but is the net impact of hydrocarbon consumption to endanger humans?" Wright added.

David Doniger, a senior attorney at New York-based environmental group the Natural Resources Defence Council, said the secretary should lead the way to an abundance of cleaner energy that can meet economic objectives without destroying the climate.

"The secretary of energy should not be a salesman for one kind of energy, either to Americans or to the rest of the world," Doniger added.

Source: Reuters

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Owen Li

Economic

U.S. household wealth rose to a record $176.3 trillion in the second quarter on the back of a resurgent stock market and climbing property prices, data from the Federal Reserve showed on Thursday.

Household net worth climbed by more than $7 trillion in the April-through-June period thanks mostly to a $5.5 trillion increase in the value of stock market holdings, the Fed said. After slumping to start the year on worries that President Donald Trump's tariffs would torpedo economic growth and stoke inflation, stocks roared back after Trump tempered his approach somewhat and delayed the onset of his proposed import taxes. The benchmark S&P 500 index gained 10.6% in the period.

A $1.2 trillion increase in real estate values also contributed to the rise in wealth, Fed data showed.

Source: Yahoo Finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Central Bank

Economic

Major central bank meeting schedule

The upcoming weeks are packed with important economic events as the major central banks hold their monetary policy meetings. Their decisions will be announced at the following times:

European Central Bank (ECB): 8.15pm (HK time) on Thursday 11 September

Federal Reserve (Fed): 2.00am (HK time) on Thursday 18 September

Bank of England (BoE): 7.00pm (HK time) on Thursday 18 September

Bank of Japan (BoJ): 11.00am (HK time) on Friday 19 September

Traders should prepare for heightened volatility as markets digest policy statements, rate decisions and forward guidance. The coordination of these announcements creates unique trading opportunities but also amplifies risk across global markets.

ECB maintains cautious stance after eight rate cuts

The ECB is expected to maintain its current policy stance following eight interest rates cuts implemented since June 2024. At July's meeting, policymakers opted to pause, citing easing domestic price pressures and moderating wage growth as primary considerations.

Recent economic data reinforces this cautious approach. Eurozone headline inflation registered 2.1% year-on-year in August, while core inflation remained stable. However, the slight increase in headline inflation necessitates vigilance against potential renewed price pressures.

Trade dynamics with the US introduce additional complexity to the ECB's deliberations. Despite reaching a bilateral agreement in July, European exporters now face 15% tariffs on most goods entering US markets, significantly exceeding pre-agreement levels.

The tariff burden affects critical sectors including pharmaceuticals, automotive manufacturing and semiconductor production. Moreover, the agreement's implementation remains contingent upon EU elimination of levies on US industrial goods and provision of preferential agricultural tariffs. European automotive exports face particularly challenging conditions, with tariff rates of 27.5% persisting until EU legislative implementation occurs.

Geopolitical developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict present additional uncertainty for policymakers. Potential US pressure on the EU to impose tariffs up to 100% on Chinese and Indian imports could strain relationships with key trading partners. Such measures might undermine European efforts to strengthen global trade positioning amid escalating international trade tensions.

Consequently, the ECB is likely to maintain its pause in September, with high probability of unchanged policy through year-end. This measured approach reflects uncertainty surrounding trade policy impacts and inflationary dynamics across the eurozone.

Figure 1: The ECB might have found the right balance after eight cuts

Fed confronts deteriorating employment landscape

Labour market deterioration presents the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with compelling rationale for monetary easing at next week's meeting. August non-farm payrolls additions reached just 22,000, substantially below the 75,000 consensus expectation.

This disappointing figure reduced the three-month average job creation to approximately 29,000 positions. Recent Bureau of Labour Statistics annual benchmark revisions suggest labour market weakening commenced earlier than previously recognised, with average monthly gains nearly halved through March 2025.

Unemployment has escalated to 4.3% in August, marking the highest level since October 2021. This deterioration strengthens arguments for accommodative monetary policy to support economic growth and employment recovery.

Markets anticipate a Fed rate reduction with near certainty, though debate centres on magnitude. A 25 basis point cut appears most probable, barring significantly softer inflation readings than July data suggesting Producer Price Index (PPI) growth of 3.3% and Consumer Price Index (CPI) expansion of 2.7% year-on-year.

Bond futures markets price 66% probability of three or more quarter-point reductions by year-end. This expectation reflects both labour market concerns and broader economic growth uncertainties facing the US economy.

Political pressures on Fed independence add complexity to monetary policy deliberations. The Trump administration has intensified criticism of Fed leadership, including public censure of Chair Powell's timing on rate cuts and controversial dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud concerns. White House Chief Economic Adviser Stephen Miran will be facing Senate confirmation proceedings for his Federal Reserve Board position tonight. Meanwhile, Governor Lisa Cook maintains her role pending ongoing legal investigation.

These political dynamics introduce additional considerations beyond traditional economic indicators, potentially complicating the Fed's policy communication and implementation strategies.

Figure 2: US policy rates probabilities

BoE navigates inflation-growth trade-offs

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) delivered a 25 basis point rate cut in August, reducing the base rate from 4.25% to 4.00%. The decision required two voting rounds, highlighting significant disagreement among committee members regarding appropriate policy direction.

Policymakers must balance competing pressures as both headline and core inflation accelerated to 3.8% in July. Simultaneously, employment data revealed continued weakness with payrolled employee counts declining consecutively over the past six months, creating conflicting policy signals.

Rising long-term borrowing costs present additional challenges for the central bank's balance sheet normalisation efforts. UK 30-year gilt yields briefly touched 5.72% last week, representing the highest level since 1998.

Market consensus overwhelmingly expects policy rates to remain unchanged at September's meeting. However, year-end expectations remain divided, with probability assessments splitting 40% for cuts versus 60% for no change.

Any surprise dovish shift or accommodative guidance could trigger significant sterling weakness against major currencies. The BoE faces the delicate task of supporting economic growth while preventing inflation expectations from becoming entrenched above target levels.

Figure 3: UK's employment and inflation data

BoJ considers policy normalisation

Japan's economic conditions have improved from the challenging environment faced earlier this year. Core consumer price inflation has moderated from its May peak of 3.7% year-on-year to 3.1% in July across two consecutive months.

Economic growth has demonstrated notable acceleration, with annualised GDP expansion improving from 0.3% in Q1 to 2.2% in Q2. This improvement reflects robust private consumption and capital spending, although the effect from front-loading of export orders ahead of tariff implementations will likely wane next quarter.

These developments provide the Bank of Japan with stronger foundations for considering rate increases during 2025, although the central bank has adopted a cautious approach due to underlying price dynamics. The BoJ emphasises 'underlying inflation' measures have not consistently achieved the 2% objective, despite core inflation remaining above 2% since April 2022. Irrespective of which inflation definition proves more accurate, Japanese consumers face tangible impacts from higher prices as real wages have declined for six consecutive months since February.

Uncertainty surrounding potential US trade policy impacts on Japan's export-dependent economy represents another key consideration. The full consequences of the latest tariff framework remain unclear, creating additional complexity for monetary policy planning.

While the BoJ will likely maintain current rates at next week's meeting, any indication of potential 2025 tightening could provide substantial yen support.

Technical analysis of major currency pairs

EUR/USD demonstrates compelling technical momentum as it approaches horizontal resistance at 1.1795. A decisive breakthrough above this level would provide additional upward momentum for the established trend.

The relative strength index maintains a neutral reading of 52, suggesting scope for continued appreciation from valuation perspectives. Key support levels include the 50-day moving average at 1.1656 and August's low of 1.1391, providing downside protection.

Figure 4: EUR/USD (daily) price chart

GBP/USD continues trading within an ascending channel established in January. Following July's peak near 1.3788, the pair has consolidated within a defined range, testing both support and resistance boundaries.

Recent bounces from the channel's lower boundary at 1.3333 suggest the broader uptrend remains intact. A break above 1.3595 would target July's highs around 1.3788, while failure below 1.3333 would shift focus toward 200-day moving average support at 1.3190.

Figure 5: GBP/USD (daily) price chart

The yen has been on a weakening trajectory since April as political leadership instability and persistent rises in long-term bond yields weighed on the currency. However, the yen steadied as the US dollar weakened ahead of critical inflation data.

USD/JPY faces a critical technical juncture at the 148.8 level. Recent rejection at this point indicates the longer-term bearish trend established in January remains valid, though traders should monitor potential reversal signals.

The pair exhibits an ascending triangle pattern with horizontal resistance at 148.6. A breakthrough above this level would signal reversal of the dollar's bear trend, while support emerges around the 146 area during potential pullback.

Figure 6: USD/JPY (daily) price chart

Market implications and strategic considerations

The central bank decisions will have significant implications across various markets, with the Fed's announcement likely to drive the most substantial global impact. The Fed's policy stance influences dollar strength, US Treasury yields, and risk appetite across international markets.

Bond markets will respond substantially to interest rate decisions and forward guidance communications. Yield curve dynamics may experience significant shifts depending on central bank messaging and revised rate expectations.

Equity markets face mixed signals from policy divergence trends. While accommodative monetary policy typically supports asset valuations, underlying economic weakness that necessitates easing could weigh on investor sentiment.

Commodity markets, particularly precious metals, often benefit from accommodative monetary policy environments. Trading opportunities may develop as real yield dynamics shift across major economies.

Risk management assumes paramount importance during periods of heightened volatility surrounding central bank announcements. Position sizing and stop-loss implementation should reflect increased uncertainty and potential for gap movements.

Source: ig

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Commodity

Bridgewater founder and the firm's former CEO Ray Dalio says gold might be a way to shield investors from unhealthy markets, overburdened with debt.

Dalio warned that as the U.S. spends more to service its debts, this "squeezes out other spending" and builds up as plaque would in a clogged human circulatory system.

"A doctor would warn of a heart attack," he said.

"A well-diversified portfolio would have somewhere between 10% and 15% in the portfolio of gold," said Dalio, who sold his remaining stake in Bridgewater Associates in July and stepped away from the hedge fund he founded.

Gold was uncorrelated with other assets, its value tending to rise during a crisis when other assets fall, Dalio told attendees at a launch event for Abu Dhabi Finance Week, scheduled for December.

With the world "abundant in debt" and with geopolitical tensions rising, investors should question "whose money do you own?" when thinking about how to build a neutral portfolio, said Dalio.

Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters, who sat on the panel alongside Dalio, said that though market valuations in Europe were not as high as in the United States, the conditions were similar.

"The UK and France are in similar situations but markets have been providing more severe constraints than the U.S.," said Winters.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which are up over 11% and 13%, respectively, so far this year, closed at record highs on Wednesday, as cooler-than-expected inflation data supported expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.

The pan European stock index was last up just over 8% so far in 2025.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Block 1: Essential news

Kraken launches tokenized stocks in Europe: towards a new investment model?

Kraken is rolling out its xStocks service to European investors, a few weeks after obtaining its MiCA license from the Central Bank of Ireland. Launched in June, this solution allows investors to invest in more than 60 US stocks and ETFs in tokenized form, with one key advantage: 24-hour access and the ability to store them in a personal wallet. But beware: these assets do not confer voting rights and are not traditional shares. They offer exposure to the price, but without the classic legal attributes. For Kraken, this is another step towards decentralized finance applied to shares, with a strong message: "if you own a share, you should reap all the benefits—not your bank." Food for thought.

The Trump family rakes in $1.3bn thanks to cryptocurrencies

Donald Trump wanted to become the "crypto president"... and he's doing everything he can to make it happen. In just a few weeks, the Trump family has generated $1.3bn from its multiple cryptocurrency-related projects. This financial windfall has reignited accusations of conflicts of interest, even as the White House steps up its support for the sector. World Liberty Financial, WLFI stablecoin, crypto ETF, TRUMP memecoins, American Bitcoin mining company, shared treasury with Crypto.com... the list of projects is growing rapidly. According to Bloomberg, earnings from WLFI and related partnerships already total $670m, while the family now holds more than $5bn in digital assets. At this rate, crypto revenues are rivaling those of the iconic Trump golf clubs.

EasyJet enters the crypto market: introducing EasyBitcoin, the low-cost platform for buying BTC

After bargain airline tickets, here comes low-cost bitcoin. The EasyGroup, owner of EasyJet, unveils EasyBitcoin, a new subsidiary dedicated to the purchase and sale of cryptocurrencies, in partnership with Uphold. The goal: to break the fees of traditional platforms, while riding the crypto wave. "I'm only doing this because Trump's re-election has completely mainstreamed [cryptocurrency]," CEO Stelios Haji-Ioannou told Bloomberg. With a simple interface, ultra-competitive commissions, and a "mainstream" positioning, EasyBitcoin intends to apply the EasyJet formula to the BTC market.

24/7 markets: the SEC and CFTC want to model traditional finance on the crypto model

A small revolution could be in the works. The SEC and CFTC, the two US financial regulators, are considering opening the financial markets 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, similar to the crypto model. This idea is part of a strategic shift driven by Donald Trump, who is pushing for an unprecedented rapprochement between the two institutions. The goal is to modernize Wall Street in the era of global and decentralized markets. But that's not all. The SEC-CFTC duo also wants to relax the framework for prediction markets, perpetual contracts, and even decentralized finance (DeFi), which have been closely monitored until now. Behind this initiative is a regulatory recalibration designed to attract innovation and bring offshore crypto volumes back to U.S. soil. A new era is dawning.

Block 2: Crypto Analysis of the Week

Saylor's strategy breaks down

It all started with Strategy, Michael Saylor's pioneering company, which became the first bitcoin-listed "deposit bank." The idea was simple: raise funds on the stockmarket, buy BTC, and take advantage of the leverage between the rise in the token and the rise in the stock. For months, the mechanism seemed foolproof: Strategy's stock rose from $60 to over $500, buoyed by a wave of political support from Washington.

But for the past month, the house of cards has been faltering. Although the company's stock is still up 15% since January 1, it has fallen 18% since mid-August, reaching its lowest level since April. And with it, a whole host of companies that had copied the model. Some are now worth less than the cryptocurrencies they hold, a market anomaly that is making investors nervous. In other words, the most fragile players are at risk of being swept away.

Collateral damage

In Asia, Japan's Metaplanet, the continent's largest holder of bitcoins, has seen its stock plummet 68% since June. In London, Smarter Web Company lost 70% over the same period.

Some groups have even changed their names and repainted their logos in the orange colors of bitcoin to ride the wave. Even if it means abandoning their original business:

KindlyMD, a healthcare provider listed in New York, preferred to buy BTC. Its share price fell 68% in one month.

In France, Capital B, a former tech player that switched to buying tokens, lost 26%.

Others had only one goal: to go public to raise funds and buy crypto. Alt5 Sigma, a partner of the Trump family in the creation of a "crypto treasury," has already fallen 35% since the announcement of the operation.

The "danger zone" of balance sheets

At the heart of the model is an indicator created by Saylor: mNAV, the ratio between enterprise value (shares + debt – cash) and crypto assets. When this ratio falls below 1, the company is worth less than its crypto holdings. Simply put, mNAV measures the difference between a company's market value and the actual value of its bitcoin reserves.

In other words, mNAV is a bit like the "confidence premium" that the market grants to a company in relation to the real value of its bitcoins. If a company holds $1bn worth of bitcoins, but its market value is $2bn, this means that the market is willing to pay twice as much as the value of its bitcoins alone.Why? Because investors believe that this company will manage its bitcoins well, buy more, or that it has a model that justifies paying more. When mNAV is high, the company can easily raise funds, sell shares, and continue to buy bitcoins. It therefore has a real "competitive advantage" in the market. When the mNAV falls to 1 (or below), the market considers that the company is not worth more than its stack of bitcoins. No one wants to invest anymore, the company can no longer finance itself... and if it has to sell its bitcoins to survive, it fuels the market's decline.

This is already the case for some:

LM Funding America is worth $23.5m on the stockmarket, while its BTC portfolio is estimated at $34m.

Semler Scientific, in the healthcare sector, has an enterprise value of $500m, compared to $557m in bitcoins held.

Is the bubble still alive?

Paradoxically, despite the downturn, fundraising continues. Forward Industries announced $1.65bn in Solana cash, and its stock has soared 71% since the announcement. Eightco, a packaging specialist, has launched Worldcoin, triggering a 3,000% (!) surge in its stock price.

Since January, $73bn has been raised to buy bitcoin, and $38bn for ether, according to Architect Partners. But the mood is less euphoric. Bitcoin has fallen 9% from its peak of $124,000. After the euphoria comes doubt: will "crypto cash" be a sustainable model... or a financial mirage destined to collapse? Everything will depend, most certainly, on the evolution of the bitcoin price in the coming months.