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Company bond sales are also expected to surge in 2025, according to Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets.
The Biden administration finalised rules for a 25% tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing projects, expanding eligibility for what is likely to be the largest incentive programme from the 2022 Chips and Science Act.
The new regulations, which come more than a year after the initial proposed rules, mean that a wider swath of companies will be able to get the tax breaks. That includes businesses that produce the wafers that are ultimately turned into semiconductors, as well as manufacturers of chips and chipmaking equipment.
The credits also will apply to solar wafers — an unexpected shift that could help spur domestic production of panel components. So far, the US has struggled to foster manufacturing of those parts, despite a surge of investment in US panel-making factories.
But the benefits don’t extend all the way up the supply chain. Still excluded are facilities that produce underlying materials like polysilicon, which is used to make wafers. That approach is consistent with how the original law was written, a Treasury official said.
The tax refunds are one of three main subsidy streams available from the Chips Act, which aims to revitalise the American semiconductor industry after decades of production shifting abroad. The law also set aside US$39 billion (RM168.6 billion) in grant funding — more than 90% of which has been allocated, though not yet spent — and US$75 billion in loans and loan guarantees, of which officials are likely to use less than half.
The latter two incentive categories have garnered the most attention — President Joe Biden has even visited factories to herald the announcements — but it’s the tax credits that could be most meaningful for companies. Proposed grants typically cover 10% to 15% of project costs, compared with 25% for tax credits. The idea is to make it just as cost-effective to build a factory in the US as in Asia.
“Our goal is to give you the minimum amount of money necessary to get you to expand on our shores in a way that advances our economic and national security objectives,” Mike Schmidt, director of the Commerce Department’s chips office, said in an August interview when asked about tax credits. “That means looking at all sources of funding and then figuring out how our funds get you over that hump.”
Some companies argued in negotiations that the tax credits shouldn’t “count against” their other funding, Schmidt said — a line of reasoning that didn’t sway government officials.
Chip companies have announced more than US$400 billion in planned US investment over the past several years, including massive factories from leading-edge manufacturers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co and Intel Corp. There also are efforts underway to make older-generation processors and other supplies.
The surge in activity likely means that the Chips Act will be more expensive than anticipated.
The Congressional Budget Office originally estimated that the tax credits would cost US$24 billion in forgone revenue. But the true number could be more than US$85 billion, according to a June report by the Peterson Institute for International Economics that used “very conservative assumptions based on the current investment trends.”
That would exceed the original projected cost of the entire Chips Act, the report said, “resulting in a total cost overrun of nearly 80%.”
Asked whether the Treasury Department has its own cost estimate for the tax credit, an official didn’t provide a specific number. But any overrun could be seen as a win by the Biden administration since it represents additional investments in American manufacturing.
In almost every case, tax credits will account for the greatest share of Chips Act incentives going to any one company. Micron Technology Inc, for example, expects to get around US$11.3 billion in tax credits for two chip factories in New York. That’s compared with US$6.1 billion in grants and US$7.5 billion in loans to support those two facilities plus another plant in Idaho.
Texas Instruments Inc anticipates US$6 billion to US$8 billion in tax credits — as much as five times the size of its Chips Act grant.
Tax credits could also go to the many companies that didn’t win grant money — like Applied Materials Inc — but are still building factories for chips, equipment or wafers. Businesses can get refunds for construction that starts by the end of 2026 and is continuous after that point.
Michigan politicians lobbied hard to extend the tax credit to polysilicon makers as well — in particular, locally based Hemlock Semiconductor LLC. But the Chips Act limited the tax credit to property “integral” to semiconductor production, and Treasury determined that wafers — but not materials — fit that definition.
Hemlock is getting a grant, however. On Monday, the company struck a preliminary agreement for a US$325 million award, which covers a higher share of its project costs than most other Chips Act outlays.
Malaysia’s economy is experiencing a robust recovery, marked by significant growth in key sectors and improvements in labour market indicators. The first half of 2024 has seen substantial economic expansion, with GDP growth rates of 4.2% in the first quarter and 5.9% in the second quarter. The World Bank projects that Malaysia will reach high-income status by 2027-2028, supported by strong GDP growth, a resilient manufacturing sector and a thriving services sector.
Domestic demand is picking up and unemployment has reached its lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic, at 3.3%. The manufacturing sector, in particular, is witnessing renewed momentum as global disruptions, such as the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, begin to subside. Furthermore, Malaysia’s downstream manufacturing activities are benefiting from the global semiconductor boom, with a surge in demand for AI technologies further bolstering growth prospects.
However, economic growth alone does not necessarily translate into equitable improvements for the workforce, particularly in terms of wage growth. As Malaysia’s economy strengthens, it is crucial to assess whether the labour market is sharing in these gains, particularly through higher wages that reflect the economic progress. Understanding how wages have evolved in response to recent economic developments can provide critical insights into the inclusivity and sustainability of Malaysia’s growth trajectory.
Against this backdrop, this article aims to assess whether labour market wages are keeping pace with these developments. To do this, we examine wage growth from 2019 to March 2024. Furthermore, we break down this period into two segments: 2019 to December 2023, and December 2023 to March 2024, to evaluate the latest trends. This approach allows us to observe medium-term structural changes as well as short-term wage growth.
The chart illustrates the growth and decline in wages across different sectors in Malaysia between 2019 and March 2024, highlighting both medium-term and short-term changes. It is important to note that the data presented in the chart reflects after-tax and inflation-adjusted wages, providing a clearer picture of the real purchasing power of workers across different sectors. Several key trends emerge from the analysis, revealing the uneven nature of wage growth across various industries.
The manufacturing sector, which consists of one-fifth of the economy, has been a key driver of economic growth. While it registered a strong 8.2% year-on-year growth rate from 2019 to December 2023, the sector experienced a notable decline in wages in the short term, with a 17.5% drop from December 2023 to March 2024. This decline is concerning, especially given the ongoing efforts of Malaysia to move up the value chain into high-value semiconductor industries, such as integrated circuit (IC) chip design and research and development (R&D). While these are commendable goals, it raises the question of whether they will translate into higher wages for existing workers.
Transitioning to higher-value industries also means that current workers may lack the skillsets to support these new sectors. Therefore, substantial upskilling initiatives need to be introduced to existing workers, along with efforts to bring in more workers who are well-equipped for these industries. The problem is that many of Malaysia’s graduates are not ready for high-skilled manufacturing. Total tertiary graduates’ enrolment in 2023 numbered 1.25 million, with 40% being business administration, humanities and law students, while only 16% are engineering and construction students. Although there is a high number of tertiary graduates, the proportion with a science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) background is limited. Major upskilling initiatives are needed for those without strong STEM fundamentals to be employed in higher-value chain manufacturing.
There are many grand plans to move Malaysia into higher-value chain activities. The National Semiconductor Strategy aims to train 60,000 engineers, but progress has been muted, with challenges in implementation and a lack of clear milestones. The TVET Madani programme offers a wide array of training initiatives, but the lack of a cohesive structure and limited wide-scale private sector collaboration has made it difficult to assess its overall effectiveness. Without significant improvements in coordination, these initiatives may fall short of equipping the workforce with the necessary skills for Malaysia’s economic transformation.
The services sector, which consists of half of Malaysia’s GDP and was a major driver of economic growth in the first half of 2024, has shown relatively modest wage growth compared with other sectors. According to the chart, the services sector experienced a slight decline in after-tax real wages of 0.7% (y-o-y) from 2019 to December 2023 and a further decline of 0.3% from December 2023 to March 2024.
This slow wage growth is particularly concerning, given that the services sector contributes half of Malaysia’s GDP and employs two-thirds of the workforce. Despite being a major driver of economic growth, many jobs within the services sector are low skilled and low wage, such as those in retail, hospitality, and food and beverage (F&B).
Improving national wages requires a comprehensive approach that extends beyond the manufacturing sector. It is essential to focus on upskilling workers, enabling them to transition into higher-value roles. For example, a retail worker could be retrained to enter the healthcare services sector, such as nursing or eldercare, where there are opportunities for higher pay and career advancement.
To transform the services sector into a higher-skilled part of the economy, Malaysia must target opportunities in sectors like global business services (GBS), financial services, IT development and support, and high-value tourism. Expanding the GBS sector, for instance, could create a demand for skilled workers capable of providing advanced business solutions to global clients, complementing Malaysia’s strength in manufacturing. Similarly, growing Malaysia’s role as a regional financial hub can drive demand for skilled financial professionals, while investing in IT development could align well with the digital transformation initiatives in manufacturing, enabling better integration of tech services with industrial growth.
High-value tourism and medical tourism also represent significant opportunities for upskilling service workers. By investing in specialised training for hospitality professionals and healthcare workers, Malaysia can create a premium tourism experience that attracts international visitors, thereby boosting income levels. The services sector has the potential to complement the manufacturing sector by providing essential support in logistics, technology and business services, ultimately creating a more diverse and resilient economy.
Because the services sector accounts for a significant share of employment, average overall wage growth declined 2.6% in the short term (December 2023 to March 2024). From 2019 to December 2023, long-term real wage growth stagnated at an average annual rate of 1.7%, which suggests that while Malaysia’s economy is growing, the benefits are not being trickled down into the labour market, raising concerns about the inclusivity of this recovery.
While Malaysia’s economic recovery shows strong growth in key sectors like manufacturing and services, wage improvements have been inconsistent. Short-term declines in both sectors, as well as long-term subdued wage growth, highlight the need for structural reforms to ensure inclusive growth. The government must address wage disparities and labour market challenges in high-stakes industries through targeted upskilling initiatives.
India’s crude oil demand is about to add 4% during the final quarter of the year amid a festival season that also coincides with increased agricultural activity after the monsoon season.
The forecast comes from S&P Global Commodity Insights, which said that it expected India’s fuel demand to rise by between 50,000 and 55,000 barrels daily of gasoline and diesel in the period between November and December.
The pickup in demand follows depressed fuel consumption during the monsoon, as the rains affected transport and construction activity, the Economic Times noted in a report on the oil demand outlook for the country.
The depression in consumption, however, was only discernible in diesel fuel, the report also noted, with that shedding less than 2% during the June-September quarter. Gasoline demand, on the other hand, expanded by 3% during the monsoon.
India is one of the largest consumers of crude oil and due to limited domestic supply, it is also one of the biggest importers. As much as 85% of the subcontinent’s consumption is covered by imported oil.
That consumption is moving higher and growing in lockstep with the economy and refinery expansion plans.
Over the past two years, India has become a key buyer of Russia’s oil, which is selling at a discount because of the sanctions and embargoes on Russian crude exports to Western countries.
The attractiveness of cheaper crude supply has made Russia the single biggest supplier of oil to India, especially as New Delhi plans a significant expansion in domestic refining capacity.
By 2028, plans are to boost refining capacity by 20% to a total 6.19 million barrels daily in order to meet rising fuel demand in the medium term. According to OPEC, India will remain the world’s biggest driver of oil demand growth well into the 2040s as well, with demand rising by 6.6 million bpd over the period until 2045.
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