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Money makes the world go round and currency is a permanent commodity. The forex market is full of surprises and expectations.
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I have 5 years of experience in financial analysis, especially in aspects of macro developments and medium and long-term trend judgment. My focus is maily on the developments of the Middle East, emerging markets, coal, wheat and other agricultural products.
BeingTrader chief Trading Coach & Speaker, 8+ years of experience in the forex market trading mainly XAUUSD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Crude Oil. A confident trader and analyst who aims to explore various opportunities and guide investors in the market. As an analyst I am looking to enhance the trader’s experience by supporting them with sufficient data and signals.
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Gold’s current choppy price action points to a near-term peak in the market as traders’ begin to lock in profits and reduce exposure ahead of yearend.
GDP growth in the third quarter came in at 2.1% on a year-on-year basis, below the market consensus (2.6%) and our call (2.4%), and driven by gross fixed capital formation. TurkStat, on the other hand, revised second-quarter GDP expansion down to 2.4% from 2.5%. Accordingly, nine-month GDP growth stood at 3.2%.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, following TurkStat’s downward revision for the second quarter, the sequential growth in this period turned to negative -0.2% quarter-on-quarter. Third-quarter GDP, on the other hand, recorded a negative QoQ growth rate of -0.2%. This shows further weakness as Turkey is now in a technical recession. Its feeble sequential performance is attributable to government consumption turning negative as well as further weakness in private spending and a negative contribution from inventories.
When we look at the breakdown on expenditures in the third quarter and compare them with the same period of 2023:
Private consumption has remained sluggish with a 3.1% YoY rise (lifting the headline GDP by 2.2ppt), given that the expansion was 7.0% YoY in the first quarter and 1.5% YoY in the second quarter.
Investment appetite weakened from 9% YoY in the first quarter to 0.8% YoY in the second quarter, turning negative with -0.8% YoY growth. This translates into a -0.1ppt contribution to the GDP expansion and was mainly driven by a continuing contraction in machinery equipment (8.6% YoY) after diving into negative territory in the second quarter. However, construction investments have remained robust with strong 9.4% YoY growth following 8.4% YoY a quarter ago.
Public consumption, which has positively contributed to the headline GDP in recent years, has been losing steam in the last two quarters and fell by a -0.9% YoY, dragging third-quarter growth down by -0.1ppt. This reflects that expenditure and revenue-side measures taken after local election in fiscal policy have created impact.
Inventory build-up shaved 2.0ppt off growth.
Finally, net exports continued to support the headline growth with a 2.2ppt contribution. This is mainly attributable to a contraction in imports.
In the sector breakdown, construction turned out to be the biggest contributor (0.5ppt), followed by agriculture (0.4ppt). Further deceleration in the services sector and declining contribution to the headline GDP in recent quarters also attracted attention.
We expect Turkey's economic activity to remain soft in the last quarter, given tighter financial conditions leading to ongoing normalisation in domestic demand – although some recent indicators, such as capacity utilisation, real sector confidence, retail and construction sector indices, showed a recovery in November. The Central Bank of Turkey's recent communication suggested that we are nearing a gradual rate-cutting cycle, implying a December move as a real possibility. We see a tight monetary stance prevailing in the period ahead and forecast GDP growth this year at 2.8%.
The AUD/USD pair trims a part of intraday gains to a multi-day top and trades just above the 0.6500 psychological mark during the first half of the European session on Friday, up for the third consecutive day.
The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on Thursday's modest gains and touches a fresh two-week low amid bets for another 25 basis points interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December. This is seen as a key factor lending support to the AUD/USD pair, though bulls seem reluctant amid worries that US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans could trigger a US-China trade war.
Meanwhile, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index released on Wednesday showed that the progress in lowering inflation stalled in October. This comes on top of the growing market conviction that Trump's expansionary policies will boost inflation, which should restrict the Fed from easing its policy further. This helps limit the USD losses and caps the AUD/USD pair.
Apart from this, persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war warrant some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets around the risk-sensitive Aussie. In the absence of any relevant market-moving economic data from the US on Friday, the AUD/USD pair remains at the mercy of the USD price dynamics and seems poised to end the week on a flattish note.
That said, the official Chinese PMIs, due for release over the weekend, will play a key role in influencing sentiment surrounding the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD). The focus will then shift to important US macro data scheduled at the beginning of a new month, including the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, and the third quarter Australian GDP growth figures next week.
The NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at manufacturing companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Renminbi (CNY). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for CNY.
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