ATFX Market Outlook - 7th July 2026

Tech Stocks Lead U.S. Equities Higher; Gold Stalls at $4,200

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

U.S. equities rallied Monday after the holiday, led by technology stocks. The Dow Jones set fresh intraday and closing record highs. Gold stalled at $4,200, halting its recent rally, while oil prices remained under pressure in a narrow range.

Germany’s May industrial production is in focus. Another decline would signal ongoing weakness in the Eurozone’s largest economy.

Global Market Review

Optimism around artificial intelligence boosted U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing sharply higher. Broadcom and other chip stocks advanced. The Dow gained 0.3%, the S&P 500 rose 0.7%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.1%.

U.S. Treasury yields edged lower, and the dollar index closed at 100.86. Spot gold settled at $4,163.98 per ounce, down 0.3%, after touching its highest since June 22 intraday. OPEC+ agreed to raise output from August, leaving oil prices under pressure at recent lows.

Key Events Today:

14:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production MAY **

20:30 US Balance of Trade MAY **

July 8（GMT+8）

00:00 EIA Monthly Oil Market Report **

04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***

10:00 RBNZ  Interest Rate Decision ***

11:00 RBNZ Press Conference ***

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1474 / 1.1509

Support: 1.1396 / 1.1360

EUR/USD recovered from early weakness Monday, closing slightly higher to extend its three-day rally. Trading remained subdued for a second day.

Analyst View: Price continues consolidating between the 10‑ and 20‑day MAs. Germany’s industrial output may provide short‑term direction.

Bias: Range trading

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3461 / 1.3498

Support: 1.3339 / 1.3302

Sterling extended its seven-day winning streak Monday, closing at its highest since June 17 and edging toward 1.3400 this morning.

Analyst View: A break above 1.3400 would open further upside, with mid‑June highs as the next resistance.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

USDJPY

Resistance: 162.85 / 163.23

Support: 161.58 / 161.20

After two days of gains, USD/JPY partially retreated in Tuesday’s Asian session as traders remained wary of possible Japanese intervention.

Analyst View: USD/JPY broke above the 10-day MA but is now retesting support. A rebound targets last week’s highs; a drop shifts focus to the 20-day MA.

Bias: Mild rebound

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

Resistance: 69.78 / 70.42

Support: 67.69 / 67.05

Oil prices remained under pressure Monday as investors assessed OPEC+’s latest output decision, holding near recent lows.

Analyst View: Prices remain capped below the 10‑day MA but supported above recent lows, keeping trade confined to a narrow range.

Bias: Low‑range consolidation

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4180 / 4221

Support: 4082 / 4049

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 64.09 / 65.43

Support: 58.30 / 56.91

Gold fell Monday despite a softer dollar, ending its three-day rally and facing resistance near $4,200.

Analyst View: Prices retreated from highs since June 22, testing the 20‑day MA this morning. A break lower would target the 10‑day MA; holding support could allow another attempt at $4,200.

Bias: Short‑term correction

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 53,410 / 53,612

Support: 52,743 / 52,536

U.S. equities rebounded Monday, led by tech stocks. Cyclicals outperformed defensives, with the Dow surpassing 53,000 for the first time and setting a new record.

Analyst View: The Dow reversed early weakness to close higher, with bulls retaining momentum to target 53,410/53,612 resistance.

Bias: Bullish at highs

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29,770 / 29,983

Support: 29,252 / 29,082

Nvidia confirmed its server roadmap remains intact, while Broadcom extended its Apple chip partnership to 2031, boosting confidence in AI infrastructure investment. Nasdaq closed higher.

Analyst View: Nasdaq ended its losing streak, reclaiming key moving averages. Sustained gains could target last week’s highs.

Bias: Short‑term rebound

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 65,564 / 66,473

Support: 62,572 / 61,648

Bitcoin rose roughly 1.8% on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump championed crypto in response to a reporter’s question about whether the asset might make its way into Trump accounts.

Bitcoin rose 1.8% Monday after President Trump voiced support for crypto. The asset rebounded after testing 10- and 20-day MA support, maintaining its upward streak and hovering near 64,000.

Bias: Mildly bullish

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