Neglected macro catalysts could trigger bitcoin downside squeeze below $100,000 in September, K33 warns

Bitcoin enters September on shaky ground as traders weigh the return of tariff pressures, looming U.S. economic data, and its historical tendency for weak performance this month, according to K33.

Neglected macro catalysts may snap markets out of their "comfortable numbness" near record highs, sparking a renewed bout of selling pressure that could drag the foremost cryptocurrency below the six-figure mark, the crypto research and brokerage firm's Head of Research, Vetle Lunde, said in a new report.

Since 2011, September has been the only month delivering average negative bitcoin returns, at –4.6%. While Lunde cautioned against relying on seasonality alone, he noted that fresh macro headwinds add weight to the bearish case. Broad tariffs reinstated in early August remain in force despite a federal appeals court ruling them illegal, with enforcement delayed until mid-October.

"Soon, very soon, the impact of these tariffs will start showing up properly in the release of U.S. economic data," Lunde wrote, highlighting mid-September PPI and CPI releases as potential triggers for downside price action.

Lunde, who rotated part of his personal BTC holdings into cash in August, said he remains cautious despite the modest pullback already in place. He pointed to the first quarter's tariff-driven selloff as a reminder that traders can quickly hit the sell button once macro fears surface. With equities and bitcoin both hovering near record highs, the risk of a sudden repricing remains elevated, he said.

Beyond tariffs, leverage in the crypto derivatives market is also flashing warning signs, Lunde cautioned. Open interest in bitcoin perpetuals has reached yearly highs, while funding rates have swung erratically between negative and neutral. Lunde warned that this setup leaves bitcoin "considerably exposed to squeezes in either direction," with the downside more likely if macro data disappoints. Attractive entry levels, he suggested, may emerge at support zones around $101,000 and $94,000.

Despite his defensive positioning, Lunde stressed that bitcoin's long-term thesis remains intact. Expansionary fiscal policies, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, and even the inclusion of crypto in 401(k) retirement plans could reignite demand.

"In the long run, the honey badger does not care about global turmoil and restrictive global trade conditions," he said, adding that he plans to redeploy sidelined cash later in September once markets have digested the impacts of tariffs.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $111,394, according to The Block's BTC price page. It has gained 2.1% over the past 24 hours, but remains 10.5% down from an all-time high of around $124,500 set on Aug. 14.

ETF outflows, gold's record run, and thinning CME participation set stage for September volatility

Elsewhere in the report, Lunde highlighted that August marked bitcoin exchange-traded products' second-worst month for flows since the U.S. spot ETFs launched, with 15,399 BTC in net outflows. These ETF flows remain tightly correlated with price direction, though 2025's correlation has softened as treasury company acquisitions and OG whale rotations add new supply dynamics, he noted.

Meanwhile, gold has surged to record highs, with central banks now holding more of the precious metal than U.S. Treasurys for the first time since 1996. However, despite its "digital gold" branding, bitcoin has remained largely uncorrelated with gold, underscoring its divergent behavior as a hedge, per the report.

Furthermore, following the August expiry, CME BTC futures premiums have risen against ETH, but trader participation has fallen to historic lows, while leveraged long ETF BITX saw its smallest BTC-equivalent exposure in over a year.

Together, these flows and positioning shifts highlight a market primed for volatility as September's macro catalysts approach, Lunde said.

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