During the European session on Tuesday, the GBPUSD traded sideways above the 1.3100 level. Pound trading remained cautious ahead of UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' budget announcement on Wednesday. Meanwhile, broad dollar weakness provided some support for the GBPUSD.

Recently, UK bondholders have been enjoying their best returns since the COVID-19 pandemic, but they are bracing for the government's upcoming tax and spending plans, which will determine whether bond investors succeed or fail this year.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is expected to announce a series of measures to help achieve debt targets when she presents the budget on Wednesday. Her first budget speech last year triggered a sell-off, while the bond market still bears scars from the crash caused by former Prime Minister Truss's fiscal policies.

This represents a major risk event for the UK government bond market, valued at £1.7 trillion (US$2.2 trillion). Fund managers have now reduced their exposure ahead of November 26. The UK deficit remains a key focus for bond investors, and recent reports that Reeves will not raise income tax have reignited investor concerns.

The GBPUSD maintains a neutral-to-bullish bias for the day, with potential resistance near the 1.3150-1.3160 range. A break above this range could trigger fresh short covering, pushing the quote toward the psychologically significant 1.3200 level. Subsequent buying interest should help sustain the upward momentum, challenging the technically significant 200-day SMA near 1.3300.

On the downside, a break below 1.3008 could extend the decline from the 138.2% retracement level (1.2831) of the previous range between 1.3725 and 1.3787 down to 1.3140.

Overall, if bulls manage to break above 1.3247 decisively, it would indicate that the decline from 1.3787 may have completed its correction.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.3100

Target Price: 1.3375

Stop Loss: 1.2980

Valid Until: December 11, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.3097, 1.3038, 1.3011

Resistance: 1.3217, 1.3247, 1.3288

OPEC's latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) and the most recent OPEC+ communiqué have materially shifted sentiment. The MOMR revised the global supply–demand balance, highlighting that accelerating non-OPEC supply and elevated long-term inventory levels will continue to exert downward pressure on flat prices. While OPEC+ announced a temporary pause to scheduled barrel-for-barrel increases for select months, aggregate supply growth through 2025–26 remains ample, eroding residual bullish optionality at the margin.

More decisively, the IEA's latest assessment flags the risk of a larger global surplus in 2026, with supply additions outpacing the pace of demand recovery. This verdict undercuts the structural-tightness narrative that had underpinned long positioning. The confluence of these incremental supply-side negatives and the uncertain demand rebound sets the fundamental baseline.

Meanwhile, weekly EIA statistics show commercial crude stocks have failed to sustain a consistent draw amid refinery shoulder-season maintenance and lackluster demand. Seaborne and floating inventories are also trending higher. These "invisible barrels" prompt the market to meet bullish headlines with measured short-covering rather than fresh length. In short, stocks remain bloated and supply plentiful—near-term upside catalysts are scarce.

On the 4-hour chart, WTI is printing lower highs and lower lows inside a clear descending channel. After prolonged entanglement with the EMAs, price broke lower, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Immediate resistance is now US$59.00. A failure to reclaim this level on a closing basis keeps the downtrend intact. First support is US$57.35, an accelerated break below opens the way toward the next structural floor at US$56.00.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 58.4

Target Price: 55.50

Stop Loss: 60.10

Valid Until: December 9, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 57.35/56.00

Resistance Levels: 59.00/60.00

In general, investors remain cautious ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Budget 2025 announcement on Wednesday. This budget has attracted significant attention because Reeves has repeatedly pledged over the past year to drive economic growth. Nevertheless, recent economic indicators show that the UK's recovery momentum is slowing. In addition, the economy performed strongly in early 2025, prompting the IMF to predict at one point that the UK would become the second-fastest-growing G7 economy. However, the third-quarter GDP growth plunged to just 0.1%. Aside from one-off factors such as production halts at Jaguar Land Rover due to cyberattacks, business surveys also indicate that concerns about further tax hikes could keep fourth-quarter growth hovering around 0.1%. Fiscal pressures are also notable. In the first seven months of this fiscal year, UK government borrowing reached £84 billion, the highest level for the same period since the pandemic, with day-to-day spending borrowing up 10% year-on-year. This poses a serious challenge to Reeves' goal of achieving a balanced budget by 2030. The labor market is similarly weak. Since the 2024 budget raised employer national insurance contributions and the minimum wage, businesses' willingness to hire has clearly declined. Employment fell by the largest two-month amount since late 2020 between September and October, while the unemployment rate rose to 5.0%. Although the Bank of England believes the impact of tax increases on the labor market has largely played out, real wage growth in Q3, adjusted for inflation, was only 0.5%, reflecting sluggish growth in purchasing power. Consumer confidence has also continued to weaken. Retail sales recorded their first month-on-month decline since May in October, and the consumer confidence index fell further in November. Retailers widely worry that the new budget may further suppress already fragile consumer sentiment. On inflation, although October's rate dropped from previous highs to 3.6%, it remains close to twice the BoE's 2% target. Cost pressures from earlier rises in employer taxes are still feeding through, creating persistent price pressures. Monetary policy outlook remains uncertain. The BoE has cut rates five times since July 2024, but its current 4% base rate is still double the ECB's level. Within the Monetary Policy Committee, there is disagreement over whether to cut again in December, while markets expect two to three more 25-basis-point cuts by the end of 2026.

Despite recent dovish remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers and growing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, the dollar has recovered its daily losses, leaving GBP/USD still subdued. The CME FedWatch tool shows that markets now assign an 81% probability (up from 71% the day before) to a 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate at the December meeting. On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller told Fox Business that his main concern was that "inflation is not a big problem with the labor market weak." He also hinted that September's nonfarm payroll data might be revised downward and warned that "no anecdotal evidence that firms are about to go on a hiring spree." All these remarks signal his support for near-term rate cuts.

Regarding the 4H chart, GBP/USD is oscillating around the EMA50, with the MACD line and the signal line pulling back near the zero axis. If they can rise back above the zero axis, the pair is likely to climb toward the resistance zone around 1.320–1.326. RSI stands at 55, indicating a wait-and-see mood, meaning a trend reversal could occur at any time. Based on the daily chart, the price is moving lower along the EMA12 and the Bollinger Middle Bands. In the short term, GBP/USD may return to near the middle band around 1.316. After the MACD line crossed the signal line and formed a golden cross, it is now pulling back toward the zero axis, but still has some distance to go, suggesting the rebound is not yet complete. RSI is at 42, showing lingering pessimism. Overall, the short-term rebound is still valid. Therefore, buying at lows is recommended.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.312

Target price: 1.33

Stop loss: 1.31

Support: 1.3/1.29/1.28

Resistance: 1.32/1.33/1.36

On Tuesday morning (November 25th, 2025), Russia launched a series of attacks on Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, targeting residential buildings and energy infrastructure. The strikes came after weekend negotiations in Switzerland between U.S. and Ukrainian representatives on a U.S.-brokered plan aimed at ending the nearly four-year war. The White House said President Donald Trump remains hopeful and optimistic about reaching an agreement, but also warned that any progress carries uncertainty. According to a Ukrainian official, the U.S. peace proposal for Russia and Ukraine currently contains 19 points and does not impose strict limits on the size of the Ukrainian military. However, these changes are likely difficult for Russia to accept. Meanwhile, according to the Gaza Government Media Office, Israel violated the U.S.-brokered Gaza ceasefire agreement at least 497 times over 44 days. These developments keep geopolitical risks alive and serve as another factor supporting safe-haven precious metals prices.

Markets widely expect the Fed to cut rates at its December policy meeting, which is driving gold higher. Traders are awaiting the release later Tuesday of the U.S. ADP employment change report, retail sales data, and producer price index. Several Fed officials have signaled support for a December rate cut, lending further support to gold. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Monday that current data show the U.S. labor market remains weak enough to warrant another 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also stated that, given increasing fragility in the labor market, the Fed should lower rates. Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, remarked: "The market is increasingly getting convinced that the U.S. Federal Reserve is on track to cut interest rates in December." Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby supporting the price of this non-yielding metal. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now see nearly an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point cut next month, up from a previous 30% probability. Traders are closely watching the latest U.S. economic data due out later Tuesday for more clues on monetary policy. The September Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, while retail sales are forecast to increase 0.4% MoM. If these figures beat expectations, they could boost the dollar and weigh on dollar-denominated commodity prices.

Based on the 4-hour chart, gold's Bollinger Bands are opening upward, with price oscillating along the upper band in an uptrend. In the short term, gold remains within a large triangle consolidation pattern. A golden cross is formed, and both the MACD and signal lines move back above the zero line, indicating the reversal of the downtrend. RSI stands at 61, reflecting strong bullish sentiment, while resistance levels stay at $4155 and $4196. The daily chart, however, suggests a weakening MACD uptrend, while the price fails to make new highs — a sign of bearish divergence. This suggests a higher likelihood of near-term declines. Support lies at the Bollinger lower Band and the EMA50, at $3920 and $3974, respectively. RSI is at 58, placing the price in the optimistic zone, but successive highs are trending lower. Thus, selling at highs is recommended.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 4143

Target price: 3600

Stop loss: 4390

Support: 3900/3800/3600

Resistance: 4380/4500/5000

The European Central Bank (ECB) and Deutsche Bundesbank President, Joachim Nagel, spoke at the Frankfurter Impulse event on Monday. While acknowledging that food inflation remains persistent, Nagel stated that the Euro's current level around $1.16 is not a cause for concern. Separately, German IFO business sentiment figures were largely in line with expectations, showing little change from the previous month. The primary market highlight for the Eurozone this week will be the preliminary German CPI inflation figures scheduled for release on Friday. Earlier data from the Eurozone's PMI reports revealed that manufacturing activity contracted against expectations, while the services sector showed signs of slowing down.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller publicly supported a rate cut in December but admitted that a move in January is less certain. In an interview with Fox Business, Waller noted, "The bulk of the private sector and the anecdotal data we’ve received indicate that nothing has really changed. The labor market is weak; it continues to weaken."

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President and Fed Governor Mary Daly, speaking to the Wall Street Journal on Monday, maintained her belief that the Fed can successfully guide inflation back to its 2% target. Daly suggested that the risk of an inflationary flare-up is diminished, given that cost increases driven by tariffs have been more moderate than anticipated earlier this year. Adding to the increasingly dovish chorus, New York Fed President John Williams stated last Friday that the Fed could still cut rates in the "near term," significantly boosting the implied probability of action in December.

Last week's U.S. economic data provided mixed signals but suggested underlying resilience. September's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 119,000, comfortably beating expectations of a 50,000 rise. However, the August reading was revised sharply downward, showing a loss of 4,000 jobs instead of the previously reported gain of 22,000. The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4%, hitting its highest level in four years. Wage growth showed moderation, with Average Hourly Earnings rising 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in September, falling slightly short of expectations. Despite the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) being openly divided, the collective commentary from key Fed officials has increased the likelihood of the central bank reducing borrowing costs at the December 9-10 meeting.

The EUR/USD pair has been under consistent bearish pressure but has recently failed to establish a new lower low, finding crucial support at the 1.1504 level. If this support zone is successfully defended, the price could renew its upward impulse to attempt a break toward a new local high. Such a move would signal that bearish sentiment may be dissipating, opening the way for a possible trend change.

Adding weight to the bullish case, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 28, clearly entering oversold territory. This level is highly likely to attract buying interest from investors looking to enter long positions. The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) on the 4-hour chart are positioned at 1.1553 and 1.1587, respectively. A convincing close above both these MAs would accelerate the upward momentum. The next significant resistance level stands at 1.1645. A rally toward this objective would likely involve the price breaking above the prevailing bearish trendline, potentially altering the long-term outlook for EUR/USD. However, if the price continues to fall and prints a new lower low below 1.1504, the current bullish setup would be invalidated, signaling that bears remain firmly in control.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.1500

Target price: 1.1645

Stop loss: 1.1460

Validity: Dec 03, 2025 15:00:00

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller publicly supported a December rate cut but stated that a move in January is less certain. In an interview with Fox Business, Waller noted, "The bulk of the private sector and the anecdotal data we’ve received indicates that nothing has really changed. The labor market is weak; it continues to weaken."

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President and Fed Governor Mary Daly, speaking in a Wall Street Journal interview, maintained her belief that the Fed can successfully guide inflation back to its 2% target. Daly suggested that the risk of an inflationary flare-up is diminished, given that cost increases driven by tariffs have been more moderate than anticipated earlier this year. Adding to the dovish chorus, New York Fed President John Williams stated last Friday that the Fed could still cut rates in the "near term," significantly increasing the probability of action in December.

Last week's U.S. economic data provided mixed signals but suggested resilience. September's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 119,000, comfortably beating expectations of a 50,000 rise. However, the August NFP reading was revised significantly lower, showing a loss of 4,000 jobs instead of the previously reported gain of 22,000. The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4%, modestly above the 4.3% estimate, hitting its highest level in four years.

Wage growth showed moderation, with Average Hourly Earnings rising 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in September, falling slightly short of the 0.3% expectation and softer than the previous 0.4% rise. On an annual basis, wages expanded by 3.8%, matching the prior reading and marginally beating the 3.7% forecast. Average Weekly Hours remained stable at 34.2, in line with expectations. Despite the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) being openly divided, the collective commentary from key Fed officials has increased the implied probability of the central bank reducing borrowing costs at the December 9-10 meeting.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was one of Monday's worst-performing major currencies, primarily due to escalating geopolitical tensions between Japan and China, two of Australia’s main trading partners. China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, asserted that Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi had "crossed a red line" by suggesting a Chinese action against Taiwan would trigger a military response from Japan.

The growing tensions in an already volatile region have largely offset the impact of positive Australian economic data seen last week. Preliminary PMI data revealed that Australian manufacturing activity rebounded to growth levels in November, following a contraction in October, and services activity accelerated for the second consecutive month. These domestic indicators reaffirmed the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) cautious, data-driven posture.

The AUD/USD pair has approached a critical level, signaling a potential change in direction as it nears the 0.6418 support mark. This price point is highly significant, having previously triggered strong bullish impulses on two separate occasions. If this historical pattern repeats, we could anticipate a renewed upward move from this zone, targeting the next major resistance at 0.6563. This level is particularly attractive as it perfectly aligns with the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, adding technical confluence that suggests this will be the objective of the new bullish impulse.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 33.15, rapidly approaching oversold territory. This reading is likely to draw the attention of potential buyers to this zone. Furthermore, the 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are closely aligned near the bullish target at 0.6540 and 0.6533, respectively. Should the price decisively break below the 0.6418 support level, it would negate the current bullish setup and open the door for a more prominent decline.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.6466

Target price: 0.6563

Stop loss: 0.6410

Validity: Dec 05, 2025 15:00:00