Upside Is Being Adjusted, Both Bulls and Bears Have Opportunities to Engage

Summary:

Although the market reacted very positively to the U.S. CPI data for October, we continue to see further risks of a continued increase in inflation and believe it is too early to make clear the Fed's policy tightening inflection point.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1765.00

Entry Price

1706.00

1785.00

2016.62 +2.59 +0.12%

200.0

Pips

Loss

1706.00

1785.08

Exit Price

1765.00

Entry Price

1785.00

Fundamentals

The main event in financial markets this week will be the U.S. Durable Goods Orders data, scheduled for release on Wednesday. The economic data is expected to grow by 0.4%, similar to previous expectations. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is working on a strategic plan to cut consumer spending. The lack of a drop in durable goods orders data will not force manufacturers to cut the prices of their final products, which could put more pressure on gold prices going forward.

Still high underlying price growth, tight labor markets, inflationary market reactions, and the risk of China reopening all support a cautious approach to inflation. These data challenge our hawkish call for a 75 basis point rate hike in December, but the Fed's focus remains on the final level of interest rates and maintaining restrictive financial conditions. A slower pace of tightening could extend the cycle further into 2023.

Another challenge for the Fed is the inflationary nature of the market response. Lower real yields, a weaker USD, and higher commodity prices reflect a moderating financial environment. If the Fed clearly communicates a more dovish interest rate outlook in the coming days, they could see markets rebound and prolong the slowdown in inflation. This is exactly what Powell tried to avoid last week and why we believe the Fed is unlikely to send a strong signal to lower the terminal rate once CPI has taken a one-time low. Back in August, the market reaction lasted only 3 days after the unexpected downward movement in the CPI.

In addition, early signs of an easing of China's lockdown strategy are increasing inflation risks in Western economies. While we remain skeptical that the policy stance will reverse in the near term, it could gradually improve in 2023, while a recovery in Chinese demand could again boost global commodity markets. Copper prices have recovered from recent lows, especially as already tight energy markets remain vulnerable to further price increases.

While inflation may have peaked, the risk of continued high inflation remains. The cost of over-tightening the economy into recession remains lower than the cost of allowing inflation to become entrenched, and as before, the Fed's focus remains on the final interest rate and maintaining limits on financial conditions for next year. Our hawkish call for a 75 basis point hike in December is clearly under pressure, but we believe the hiking cycle could continue into 2023 if the Fed prefers to slow the pace of rate hikes to 50 basis points.

XAUUSD: Upside Is Being Adjusted, Both Bulls and Bears Have Opportunities to Engage_1

Technical Analysis

The upside structure for the bulls has been in a downward trend since the test of $1786 was blocked and pulled back. However, the upward crossing of the 20-day SMA over the 50-day SMA suggests that there is still more upside to the short-term structure.

From a technical perspective, the downside of the RSI and MACD reflects a short-term bearish bias. The RSI turned down after hitting the overbought zone, while the MACD is losing momentum in positive territory. The fast EMA crossing over the slow EMA adds another bearish signal.

Only a decisive close above near-term resistance at $1,768 will add buying pressure to align towards the 200-day SMA at the $1,800 psychological mark. Extending further, bulls could test resistance at $1808 ahead of the June 13 peak at the $1880 handle.

The 20-day and 50-day SMAs could ease additional selling pressure if downside continuation occurs while momentum continues below the current level ($1740) and the support of $1730. Failure to rebound at the 50-day SMA could lead to a retest of the $1675 support level.

From a broader perspective, gold prices formed triple bottoms at $1615 on September 28, and the recent breakout from $1730 indicates a significant improvement in the reversal, which means that the current correction is just a preparation for a better upward continuation. As the current structure is still in adjustment, there are opportunities for both bulls and bears. It is recommended to go short at highs.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 1765

Target Price: 1706

Stop Loss: 1785

Valid Until: 2022-12-05 23:55:00

Support: 1735, 1730, 1706

Resistance: 1740, 1748, 1752

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

EUR Starts to Retrace, Keep an Eye on 1.0203

Jason

Summary:

The market is now cooling the expectations on the Fed's slowdown in rate hikes, and the EUR may temporarily lose upside support and enter a pullback phase.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.03165

Entry Price

1.02030

1.03788

1.09607 +0.00122 +0.11%

1.7

Pips

Profit

1.02030

1.03148

Exit Price

1.03165

Entry Price

1.03788

Fundamentals

The EUR fell slightly by 0.36% on Friday as market expectations for a slowdown in Fed rate hikes were continuously dampened by Fed officials, with Boston Fed President Collins saying that the possibility of the next Fed rate hike of 75 basis points still exists. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Bostic suggested not to focus only on inflation data and not to over-interpret the data. Signs of overheating have converged, and the USD has risen as a result, setting the EUR under pressure.

Consequently, the EUR continued to move downward after the opening of the day, and is currently down 0.62%.

In addition, two officials from the ECB also spoke, the management committee and the De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB）governor Knott said that the risk of inflation outlook is still tilted to the upside. In addition, the economic outlook has deteriorated further, and the risk of recession has increased, while interest rates are expected to reach a broadly neutral stance at next month's policy meeting. Moreover, as monetary policy is further tightened, the possibility of a slower pace of interest rate hikes has increased.

Executive member and Bundesbank Governor Nagel demonstrated further decisive measures must be taken. Basically, it is too early to discuss whether the restrictive territory has been reached, and it would be wrong to fear a recession without taking further decisive measures. Also, monetary policy cannot be eased too soon.

At a time when some ECB officials support a slowdown in rate hikes, Nagel's attitude remains hawkish. This is not the first time Nagel made hawkish remarks, as early as early November, Nagel urged the ECB to continue to take an aggressive stance. As it stands, there are already very clear divisions within the ECB:

Panetta, Visco, and Knot are clear supporters of a slowdown in rate hikes.

Kazaks, Nagel, Kazimir and Muller are supporting an aggressive rate hike.

Lagarde, Kindos and Villeroy do not specify their stands.

Since the two sides are evenly matched, making it harder to judge, it is better to wait and see. However, whether the ECB will slow down its rate hike when the market is currently focusing its main attention on the Fed side, will have a limited impact on the EUR for the time being. Considering the easing of market expectations for the Fed, the EUR may start a round of pullbacks.

Technical Analysis

Regarding the 4-hour chart, the EUR has depreciated below the 1.0428 - 1.0307 oscillation range, temporarily hovering at the bottom of the downside channel. The strong support below is at the top of the upper channel (1.0203), and the division between bears and bulls is near 0.99, which is not only close to parity but also is the historical trend of the top of the triangle range. Furthermore, a break below this line means that the EUR will return to a downtrend. For indicators, Stoch, DMI, and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo all imply that the EUR will surge in the short term. Considering the easing of market expectations for the Fed and the market's cooling on the interest rate hike expectations, it is recommended to short after the EUR's appreciation. EURUSD: EUR Starts to Retrace, Keep an Eye on 1.0203_1

EURUSD: EUR Starts to Retrace, Keep an Eye on 1.0203_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 1.03165

Target price: 1.0203

Stop loss: 1.03788

Support: 1.02491/1.02271/1.0203

Resistance: 1.0277/1.0307/1.0360

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Beware of the Rebound amid the 6-day Correction

King Ten

Commodity

Summary:

The optimism at the beginning of the month has cooled down after a 6-day correction from the market. The risk on the market has eased and the short-term copper price is expected to remain slightly volatile.

BUY COPPER

Close Time

CLOSED

7950.000

Entry Price

8220.000

7820.000

8409.845 +29.350 +0.35%

3884.5

Pips

Profit

7820.000

7988.845

Exit Price

7950.000

Entry Price

8220.000

Fundamentals

Macro aspect: the economic data of China was weak in October, with the repeated COVID-19 outbreaks in some parts of the country; U.S. retail data exceeds expectations in October, and some Fed officials release hawkish arguments.

Demand: in November, the output of key air-conditioning enterprises and their exports decreased by 8.2% and 19.3% YoY, respectively; China's car sales data for November 1-13 fell 11% YoY.

Inventory: by November 18, the inventory of copper in the three major exchanges and Shanghai Free Trade Zone was approximately 233K tons, up 20K tons MoM.

Overall: on the macro level, the repeated COVID-19 outbreaks and the release of hawkish statements by some Fed officials have cooled the optimism accumulated at the beginning of the month. In terms of supply and demand, the supply and demand in China are gradually loosening with inventories gradually piling up. In the short and medium term, copper price is expected to remain slightly more volatile. In the long run, overseas macro expectations are pessimistic, limiting the rebound.

Technical Analysis

In the 1D timeframe, the copper price has experienced a continuous correction, and the price fluctuates around the integer threshold, testing the supporting performance. The opening of the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day SMAs have somewhat converged, and the support near the 20-day SMA has also been tested in the 1D timeframe. At present, its supporting performance is acceptable. COPPER: Beware of the Rebound amid the 6-day Correction_1

COPPER: Beware of the Rebound amid the 6-day Correction_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 7950

Target price: 8220

Stop loss: 7820

Support: 7865, 7621

Resistance: 8125, 8321

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Expectations of Slower Rate Hikes Are Hit Again, with USD Rising Mainly in the Short Term

Jason

Summary:

After two consecutive trading sessions of harsh speeches from a number of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, excessive market expectations have begun to astringe, and the US dollar (USD) will briefly witness gains. It is expected that this situation will continue until Wednesday's Fed meeting minutes of November.

BUY USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

107.115

Entry Price

108.564

106.320

103.143 -0.109 -0.10%

15.5

Pips

Loss

106.320

106.960

Exit Price

107.115

Entry Price

108.564

Fundamentals

The USD continued to rise slightly by 0.26% on Friday after Fed officials dampened the market's "excessive" expectations of a slowdown in interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, Boston Fed President Collins' comments once again dampened market expectations of a slowdown in interest rate hikes.

Collins stated that it is at the stage of deciding how much tightening is sufficient and that all possible rate hikes should be discussed, with 75 basis points still one of the options to consider for next month's meeting. There is no clear and consistent evidence of the softening in the labor market that is expected and no clear signs that headline inflation is falling. The data since September (alluding to the October CPI) has raised our expectations for the top of interest rates, and recent economic data releases will not affect views on rate hikes.

Collins made these statements during an interview with CNBC. From the background of the interview, it was at the Boston Fed, but not the CNBC studio, neither was it a video link. This suggests that this was an interview that was scheduled in advance so that every word she said was carefully considered, and it is not even excluded that it could have been confirmed by Fed Chairman Powell. After all, the attitude of Fed officials has been surprisingly consistent in terms of general direction since the current tightening cycle. And "slower, longer, higher" is basically the direction of the Fed's subsequent policy path. It is hard not to suspect that the Fed is continuing to suppress the market's overheated expectations for a slowdown in interest rate hikes when Collins makes such a different statement from other officials.

St. Louis Fed President Bostic made similar statements on the 19th local time. He made it clear that if the economy develops as he expects in the coming weeks, he will be glad to start dropping the 75 basis point rate hike at the next meeting. But at the same time, he also pointed out that interpreting economic signals purposefully and carefully assessing how policy affects the real economy is not the same as changing the policy stance. It is necessary to focus on signals other than inflation, including wage growth, unemployment, labor market tightness, and sustained demand, but not to overreact to these signals.

The implication of this is clear enough. The last sentence, in particular, refers to the overheated market expectations since the CPI in October.

As a result of this, the USD continued to extend its gains after the opening of the session and had risen by nearly 0.5% by the opening of the European session.

After two consecutive trading sessions of harsh speeches from a number of Fed officials, excessive market expectations have begun to astringe, and the USD will briefly witness gains. It is expected that this situation will continue until Wednesday's Fed meeting minutes of November.

Technical Analysis

In the 4-hour chart, the USD has temporarily broken out of the oscillation range of 107.291-106.824 and is temporarily resisted at 107.735. The strong resistance level above is 108.453, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracements. Meanwhile, the descending trend line is also around this level. A firm hold above this level will mean a temporary halt to the USD's decline. In terms of indicators, in the double EMA channels, the orange channel breaks through the black channel, forming a death cross. This indicates that the USD is still in a descending trend overall. Meanwhile, the DMI shows that the USD will witness a fall after a small gain; in the Ichimoku chart, the baseline and turning line are moving upwards, indicating a strong rise in the USD in the short term but a possible pullback in the future. Overall, it is expected that the USD will experience a round of slight declines in the short term, followed by continued gains. USDX: Expectations of Slower Rate Hikes Are Hit Again, with USD Rising Mainly in the Short Term_1

USDX: Expectations of Slower Rate Hikes Are Hit Again, with USD Rising Mainly in the Short Term_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 107.115

Target price: 108.564

Stop loss: 106.32

Support: 107.291/106.824/106.034

Resistance: 107.735/108.453

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Short-Term Demand Expectations Are Under Pressure and Should Not Be Chased Short

King Ten

Commodity

Summary:

In the short term, Oil supply support is hard to meet demand pressure, and prices break through the support levels to the downside. It is recommended to pay attention to the price caps of the G7 export of Russian oil on Wednesday.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

76.500

Entry Price

83.500

72.500

75.118 +0.022 +0.02%

360.8

Pips

Profit

72.500

80.108

Exit Price

76.500

Entry Price

83.500

Fundamentals

Last week, international oil prices fell sharply, and the global crude oil spot market showed a weak trend in the short term. This is mainly due to the supply support being hard to meet the demand pressure. In addition, Chinese demand did not boost expectations and also played a large role. Since late October, the epidemic situation in China has escalated again, especially in the past two weeks, daily new confirmed cases and asymptomatic carriers have increased from 8,000 to 25,000, which is the highest value since April this year. Besides, the release of 20 measures to further optimize pandemic control once triggered the market's optimistic expectation of accelerating the recovery of Chinese demand. However, the harsh reality still makes the pressure of prevention still great, and the demand for transportation remains weak.

Although the actual need for cuts is lower than the quota in the policy aspect, OPEC's strong willingness to raise prices has led to an export decline of more than 1 million b/d in the first half of the month's shipping data. It is imperative to focus on whether the recent pullback in oil prices will lead to a further extension of OPEC's production cuts in December. At the same time, it is also necessary to pay attention to the announcement by the EU of the price caps on exports of Russian oil, which may release this Wednesday. If exports in Russia are maintained and at a profitable level, then the current oil price is limited above. On the contrary, if the target is too low and stimulates Russia to reduce production, it will have more powerful support for oil prices.

Technical Analysis

Trading at the 1-hour chart, the current price trend is pressed by the MA20, and it is recommended to examine whether it can break through this line. If it fails to break through, the support below should move down to 76.2, which is also near the low of October 26th. WTI: Short-Term Demand Expectations Are Under Pressure and Should Not Be Chased Short_1

WTI: Short-Term Demand Expectations Are Under Pressure and Should Not Be Chased Short_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 76.500

Target Price: 83.500

Stop Loss: 72.500

Support: 76.200/72.500

Resistance: 83.500/89.000

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Technical Pullback, Is Short Term Lows Confirmed?

Damon

Cryptocurrency

BUY ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

1130.64

Entry Price

1300.00

1050.00

2033.20 +30.29 +1.51%

321.5

Pips

Profit

1050.00

1162.79

Exit Price

1130.64

Entry Price

1300.00

Hot Spots

1. The G20 Bali Leaders' Declaration calling for a global crypto regulatory framework.

2. Data showing that: BTC long-term holders' losses are close to that of the 2015 bear market and have surpassed the 2018 bear market.

3. US President Joe Biden's call to implement stricter global cryptocurrency regulation.

Sentiment

The Cryptocurrency Fear/Greed Index is 21 at the moment and is Extreme Fear.Yesterday and the day before were 24 and 23 respectively. The fear level is unchanged and the rating remains at extreme fear.The market pulled SNM up nearly 40 times over the weekend, typical of the market's lack of willingness to trade and stimulate market sentiment by pulling up smaller coins.

Technical Analysis

The ETH 4-hour candlestick moves back near the low of 1070 after the FTX collapse, where if not further down, will form a rebound to repair. From the 3-day Bollinger band, the trend did not open downward, and still to a smooth trend, and the probability of a further decline in the short term or will be reduced. The short-term pressure levels are above 1200, 1300. Below support is near 1070. It is recommended to take a small position to go long in the market price here, and stop loss to leave if 1070 is broken. The upper target is near 1300.

ETH 4-hour chart

ETH-USDT: Technical Pullback, Is Short Term Lows Confirmed?_1

ETH 3-day chart

ETH-USDT: Technical Pullback, Is Short Term Lows Confirmed?_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: long

Entry level: market price

Target: 1300

Stop Loss: 1050

Downside support: 1070

Upside resistance: 1200, 1300

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Although the Bulls Failed to Capitalize on the Previous Session's Rally, It Is Believed the Bears Will Quit Here

Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

The USDCAD struggled to capitalize on the good rally it gained in the previous session on Friday, remaining under pressure at the overnight lows and oscillating in a narrow trading range above the 1.3300 handle in the early European session.

BUY USDCAD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.32600

Entry Price

1.35800

1.31400

1.35968 -0.00164 -0.12%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.31400

1.34750

Exit Price

1.32600

Entry Price

1.35800

Fundamentals

Crude oil prices hovered near monthly lows as markets worried that a localized urban outbreak in China would weaken demand for fuel in the world's second-largest economy. This in turn weakened the commodity-linked Canadian dollar and provided some support to the USDCAD, although weaker USD demand was a positive factor for spot prices.

On top of that, geopolitical risks have reduced investors' appetite for riskier assets. Market sentiment remains fragile and this is evident in the generally weaker tone of equity markets. It could drive some safe-haven flows to the USD.

Meanwhile, a small decline in U.S. Treasury yields is seen as a key factor in keeping USD bulls on the defensive. Nonetheless, expectations that the Fed will continue to raise rates (albeit at a slower pace) helped limit more downside for the USD. This, along with the cautious sentiment, favors USD bulls.

The U.S. dollar index is up about 0.1% so far this week to 106.53, after last week's "sharp drop" in U.S. inflation triggered one of the biggest one-week losses in years as people may be encouraged by the imminent end to interest rate hikes. The Fed apparently does not want to acknowledge this possibility and has been saying there is still a lot of work to be done. The market is looking for new clues to be confirmed, so U.S. inflation data for November and December will be crucial to discerning trends.

Despite the supportive fundamentals, the USDCAD has struggled to attract any meaningful buying so far. Moreover, as it fell below the 1.3400 round figure mark overnight, caution is needed before setting up for any meaningful upside. Investors are now eyeing the release of the U.S. Existing Home Sales data as well as the monthly release of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index, which will join the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield in seeking fresh momentum for the market.

USDCAD: Although the Bulls Failed to Capitalize on the Previous Session's Rally, It Is Believed the Bears Will Quit Here _1

Technical Analysis

After failing to break below the previous low of 1.3225 support for several days, USDCAD is trading above the 1.3300 handle intraday. The short-term bias is neutral to bearish as the RSI is flattening below the neutral threshold of 50; nevertheless, the stochastic oscillator is showing positive signals, and %K and the %D lines posted a bullish crossover in the oversold zone.

If the market rises, it may encounter resistance between the bearish crossover point of the 20-day and 50-day SMAs at the 1.3530 level and the 1.3570 key level. If the bulls move higher from here, they may try to break out of the 1.3578 supply area to retest the range high.

On the other hand, if the pair falls below the intraday low at 1.3300 level, bears would be expected to test the key level of 1.3225 again, while the 200-day SMA around 1.2990 could provide strong support. However, more declines could lead the pair down towards the 1.2900-1.2950 area, turning the outlook negative.

Overall, USDCAD failed to improve on the previous wave of sharp declines followed by a rally, so any move below the previous low of 1.3325 level could continue the bearish correction in the short term. In addition, the current pessimistic scenario is exacerbated by the fact that a death cross has been formed in the 4-hour chart. However, considering that the 89-day and 100-day SMAs have their strong support structure below this level, it is believed that the short-term decline may stop here. It is recommended to buy the dips.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1.3260

Target Price: 1.3580

Stop Loss: 1.3140

Valid Until: 2022-12-02 23:55:00

Support: 1.3357, 1.3315, 1.3225

Resistance: 1.3453, 1.3506, 1.3570

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Eva Chen

Analyst

Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

Ranking

Articles

836

Win Rate

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P/L Ratio

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Focus on

WTI, XAUUSD, GBPUSD

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Upside Is Being Adjusted, Both Bulls and Bears Have Opportunities to Engage

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

EUR Starts to Retrace, Keep an Eye on 1.0203

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Beware of the Rebound amid the 6-day Correction

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Expectations of Slower Rate Hikes Are Hit Again, with USD Rising Mainly in the Short Term

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Short-Term Demand Expectations Are Under Pressure and Should Not Be Chased Short

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Technical Pullback, Is Short Term Lows Confirmed?

Hot Spots

Sentiment

Technical Analysis

ETH 4-hour chart

ETH 3-day chart

Trading Recommendations

Although the Bulls Failed to Capitalize on the Previous Session's Rally, It Is Believed the Bears Will Quit Here

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure