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Price Rise Exceeds Expectations, Bulls May Test Previous Resistance to Form Double Top Pattern
Summary:
Although gold has formed a bearish pattern, the price performance does not look bearish and we have decided to stay away from bearish positions for now. Due to the limited upside potential so far, long positions can be established in the 1H and below time frame.
EXPIRED
1905.00
Entry Price
1957.00
TP
1884.00
SL
2014.19 +0.16 +0.00%
--
Pips
EXPIRED
1884.00
SL
1973.81
Exit Price
1905.00
Entry Price
1957.00
TP
Fundamentals
On Thursday, gold prices attracted some lower buying around $1908, halting the previous day's mild retracement from the highest levels since early February. In the early European session, gold prices were steady above $1920; despite the lack of follow-through, price performance did not look bearish.
The banking crisis has been an important support factor for the recent sustained rise in gold prices. Troubled Credit Suisse announced this Thursday that it will exercise its option to borrow $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank to shore up liquidity. However, investors remain concerned that broader systemic risks may continue to spread after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last week, a key driver of safe-haven assets.
Nevertheless, Credit Suisse's move to strengthen its financial position forced the U.S. dollar to partially reverse its strong overnight gains of more than 1%, but the market remains wary of the unpredictable future. This, along with the general cautious sentiment in the stock market, was another factor supporting the rise in gold prices.
As we enter February 2023, the global economy and financial markets seem to be back in a treacherous atmosphere. Both the geopolitical situation and financial risk events came one after another in just a month and a half. The most obvious reflection on the financial markets is the sharp rise and fall of U.S. bond rates and the expected sharp fluctuations in the path of monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB.
Financial markets are currently at a stage where markets and central banks are playing a white-hot game, and central banks in a dilemma will make difficult choices, striving to master the balance on the wire to keep short- and medium-term market risks manageable while suppressing the momentum of inflation rebound. The real test for the two central banks may have just begun.
Market participants seem confident that the Fed will still raise rates by at least 25 basis points at its upcoming policy meeting on March 21-22. That bet was lifted by the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index report for February earlier this week, which showed that inflation did not fall as quickly as hoped. In addition, the report showed that ECB policymakers remain inclined to raise rates by 50 basis points later today, as the Eurozone economy is strengthening and inflation is expected to remain high for many years.
In addition to this, investors are also looking at U.S. economic data, including the usual weekly first-time jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, building permits, and housing starts, for fresh momentum later in the New York session.
Technical Analysis
Due to yesterday's price gains exceeded our expectations and the price retracement was smaller than we expected; although gold prices have formed a bearish pattern, the price performance does not look bearish. Therefore, we decided to stay away from bearish positions for now until the bulls test the target range of around $1,950 (forming a double top pattern).
From a technical perspective, in the near term, any follow-through rally is likely to encounter strong resistance around the overnight swing highs in the $1,937-1,938 range. The next key hurdle will play out around $1,950-1,960 or the multi-month highs touched in February, which if cleared decisively would be seen as a new bullish trigger and pave the way for a test of the $2,000 round figure mark.
On the other hand, any further gains could stall in the $1,950-1,960 range. If that is the case, the daily low around the $1,908 range seems to protect the near-term downside before prices reach the $1,900 level. Next is the $1,885 range, below which gold could fall back to around the $1,886-1,874 range. Some follow-through selling would negate any positive bullish outlook and turn the near-term bias to the downside, forming a double top pattern.
Overall, gold prices appear poised for an extension higher as an enlarged gold crossover could continue to boost bullish interest. Nevertheless, short-term oscillators are currently overbought, so a correction trend cannot be ruled out. It is recommended to buy the dips.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 1905
Target Price: 1957
Stop Loss: 1884
Valid Until: 2023-03-30 23:55:00
Support: 1907, 1898, 1885
Resistance: 1925, 1937, 1947
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
The first level of interest is the 142.00 supply and demand zone, which could serve as a potential retracement of the trend line. If the rejection is confirmed, the next support and resistance zone that EURJPY will face is 138.00. This level has been a significant price point in the past, and traders will be watching it closely.
Furthermore, the intraday charts are forming a bearish pennant, indicating that the market is consolidating before a potential bearish breakout. If this pattern confirms, we could see a bearish move in the EURJPY pair, which could take it towards the next significant support level.
The CADCHF currency pair has been showing signs of approaching a critical resistance level on its daily chart. This resistance zone, which is also a confluence zone of support turned resistance and the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zones, has been a key level for the currency pair in the past. As the price of CADCHF approaches this level once again, traders are closely watching for signs of a potential breakout.
On the shorter-term 30-minute chart, a bearish double-top pattern has formed, adding to the bearish outlook for the currency pair. The pattern is confirmed by a break of the neckline to the downside, indicating that the currency pair may be ready for a move lower
The GBPJPY price has been on a steady rise since the beginning of the year, but it has encountered a major hurdle at the current resistance zone. The price is currently testing a very strong resistance zone, which has held it back from reaching higher levels. This analysis will look at the current market conditions, potential trading opportunities, and the outlook for the GBPJPY pair.
Technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin has formed an inverse Head and Shoulder pattern on the weekly timeframe. Therefore, traders should wait for a breakout and retest before entering long positions.
Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
Related Analysis
Continuation of Downward Movement Expected After Correction Ends
PENDINGBullish Trend Remains Intact but with Limited Upside Potential
PENDINGRange Trading Dominated by Selling High and Buying Low
TRADINGPossible Short Squeeze in the Market, Emphasizing Buying the Dips
PENDINGFundamental Focus Returns
TRADING
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