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      XAUUSD: Price Rise Exceeds Expectations, Bulls May Test Previous Resistance to Form Double Top Pattern

      Inflation and RecessionCentral Bank Policy TrendsThe FedEconomic TrendsBanking Crisis in Europe and America
      Summary:

      Although gold has formed a bearish pattern, the price performance does not look bearish and we have decided to stay away from bearish positions for now. Due to the limited upside potential so far, long positions can be established in the 1H and below time frame.

      Buy XAUUSD
      EXP
      PENDING

      1905.00

      ENTRY PRICE

      1957.00

      TGT PRICE

      1884.00

      SL PRICE

      1966.26 +10.02 +0.51%

      --

      Point

      PENDING

      1884.00

      SL PRICE

      CLOSING

      1905.00

      ENTRY PRICE

      1957.00

      TGT PRICE

      Fundamentals

      On Thursday, gold prices attracted some lower buying around $1908, halting the previous day's mild retracement from the highest levels since early February. In the early European session, gold prices were steady above $1920; despite the lack of follow-through, price performance did not look bearish.
      The banking crisis has been an important support factor for the recent sustained rise in gold prices. Troubled Credit Suisse announced this Thursday that it will exercise its option to borrow $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank to shore up liquidity. However, investors remain concerned that broader systemic risks may continue to spread after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last week, a key driver of safe-haven assets.
      Nevertheless, Credit Suisse's move to strengthen its financial position forced the U.S. dollar to partially reverse its strong overnight gains of more than 1%, but the market remains wary of the unpredictable future. This, along with the general cautious sentiment in the stock market, was another factor supporting the rise in gold prices.
      As we enter February 2023, the global economy and financial markets seem to be back in a treacherous atmosphere. Both the geopolitical situation and financial risk events came one after another in just a month and a half. The most obvious reflection on the financial markets is the sharp rise and fall of U.S. bond rates and the expected sharp fluctuations in the path of monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB.
      Financial markets are currently at a stage where markets and central banks are playing a white-hot game, and central banks in a dilemma will make difficult choices, striving to master the balance on the wire to keep short- and medium-term market risks manageable while suppressing the momentum of inflation rebound. The real test for the two central banks may have just begun.
      Market participants seem confident that the Fed will still raise rates by at least 25 basis points at its upcoming policy meeting on March 21-22. That bet was lifted by the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index report for February earlier this week, which showed that inflation did not fall as quickly as hoped. In addition, the report showed that ECB policymakers remain inclined to raise rates by 50 basis points later today, as the Eurozone economy is strengthening and inflation is expected to remain high for many years.
      In addition to this, investors are also looking at U.S. economic data, including the usual weekly first-time jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, building permits, and housing starts, for fresh momentum later in the New York session.
      XAUUSD: Price Rise Exceeds Expectations, Bulls May Test Previous Resistance to Form Double Top Pattern_1

      Technical Analysis

      Due to yesterday's price gains exceeded our expectations and the price retracement was smaller than we expected; although gold prices have formed a bearish pattern, the price performance does not look bearish. Therefore, we decided to stay away from bearish positions for now until the bulls test the target range of around $1,950 (forming a double top pattern).
      From a technical perspective, in the near term, any follow-through rally is likely to encounter strong resistance around the overnight swing highs in the $1,937-1,938 range. The next key hurdle will play out around $1,950-1,960 or the multi-month highs touched in February, which if cleared decisively would be seen as a new bullish trigger and pave the way for a test of the $2,000 round figure mark.
      On the other hand, any further gains could stall in the $1,950-1,960 range. If that is the case, the daily low around the $1,908 range seems to protect the near-term downside before prices reach the $1,900 level. Next is the $1,885 range, below which gold could fall back to around the $1,886-1,874 range. Some follow-through selling would negate any positive bullish outlook and turn the near-term bias to the downside, forming a double top pattern.
      Overall, gold prices appear poised for an extension higher as an enlarged gold crossover could continue to boost bullish interest. Nevertheless, short-term oscillators are currently overbought, so a correction trend cannot be ruled out. It is recommended to buy the dips.

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading Direction: Long
      Entry Price: 1905
      Target Price: 1957
      Stop Loss: 1884
      Valid Until: 2022-03-30 23:55:00
      Support: 1907, 1898, 1885
      Resistance: 1925, 1937, 1947
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Eva Chen

      Analyst

      Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

      Rank

      4

      Articles

      539

      Win Rate

      65.74%

      P/L Ratio

      0.58

      Focus on

      WTI, XAUUSD, USDCAD

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