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103.003

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      Gold Holds Below 1730, Will Start a New Downtrend

      Summary:

      The minutes of the Fed's November meeting will be released during the day. From the previous attitude of the Fed officials suppressing market expectations, the minutes may not be as dovish as the market expected.

      SELL XAUUSD
      Close Time
      CLOSED

      1746.52

      Entry Price

      1730.00

      TP

      1756.79

      SL

      2027.60 +13.57 +0.67%

      89.6

      Pips

      Loss

      1730.00

      TP

      1755.48

      Exit Price

      1746.52

      Entry Price

      1756.79

      SL

      Fundamentals

      Gold oscillated yesterday and closed slightly up 0.1%. This was mainly because the US 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds have inverted to the greatest extent in 40 years, and the inverted curve has long been seen as a sign of an economic recession. The duration and the extent of this inversion are so profound that the market is deeply concerned. The market is also betting that the recession will force the Fed to cut interest rates earlier than expected, and the dollar will fail to continue the trend of the previous few trading days and close on the decline.
      Gold's sharp rally since Nov. 4 has benefited from two factors, one being influenced by short covering trades and the other by the market's overheated expectations of a slowdown of interest rate hikes by the Fed. But both factors are now absent. The reason for the former is that the latest CFTC data from the last reporting week showed the market shifting to the net speculative long position; while the latter is that overheated market expectations were dampened by Fed officials' speeches for several successive trading days. This means that this deep retracement in gold is likely to continue.
      The minutes of the Fed's November meeting will be released during the day. From the previous attitude of the Fed officials suppressing market expectations, the minutes may not be as dovish as the market expected. Although the Fed is still heading toward a hawkish slowdown, it is not a "hawkish top". The Fed is likely to raise its estimate of the terminal rate in December at the earliest, partly because high inflation is likely to persist. And this is also in line with the Fed's "slower, higher, longer" policy path. However, this is clearly in conflict with the market's expectations of an accelerating recession in the US economy forcing the Fed to immediately slow down rate hikes, suspend rate hikes or even cut rates on aggressive expectations. In other words, the dollar may therefore rise and put gold under pressure.

      Technical Analysis

      In the 4H chart, the gold oscillates in a narrow range of 1749.52 - 1732.5 in the short term. In the vicinity of 1730, there are both the W bottom neckline and the top of the historical trend 1617.123 - 1730 oscillation range, and the 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement, which is the key support, a break below this line means that gold will open a new round of downtrend. The key resistance above is the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement (1774.80). As for the indicators, Stoch and Ichimoku both show that gold will rise in the short term; +DI in DMI shows signs of going up through -DI, indicating that there is an accumulation of downside risk in gold in the short term. Overall, it is recommended to continue shorting after the gold rises.
      XAUUSD: Gold Holds Below 1730, Will Start a New Downtrend_1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Short
      Entry price: 1746.52
      Target price: 1730.0
      Stop loss: 1756.79
      Support: 1737.19/1730.0/1723.85
      Resistance: 1749.52/1768.74/1784.33
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

      Might Re-test 0.6540 as the Retracement Continues

      Winkelmann
      Forex
      Summary:

      Thanks to the weakness of the USD, the AUD has rebounded strongly in the near term. It turned upward in the middle term, but the rebound is suppressed in the short term, and there is the possibility of repeated adjustments.

      SELL AUDUSD
      Close Time
      CLOSED

      0.66404

      Entry Price

      0.65500

      TP

      0.67500

      SL

      0.66265 +0.00193 +0.29%

      109.6

      Pips

      Loss

      0.65500

      TP

      0.67500

      Exit Price

      0.66404

      Entry Price

      0.67500

      SL

      Fundamentals

      Recently, expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of interest rate hikes have been rising. An increasing number of investors are beginning to believe that the USD has peaked and market risk appetite has rebounded, providing non-US currencies with an opportunity to rise in the medium to long term.
      However, Fed officials seem to be deliberately suppressing the market's enthusiasm, frequently making hawkish remarks and reiterating their determination to fight inflation again, to prevent the market from forming "loose expectations" prematurely. The Fed's interest rate hike is not over yet, and the rise in terminal interest rates is still supporting the USD. Even if the USD has turned downward, it is not yet ready for a sustained sharp drop. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), as the leading central bank to slow down the rate increase in the current interest rate increase cycle, is significantly different from the aggressive rate increase pace of central banks such as the Federal Reserve, which could limit the upward movement of AUDUSD.
      In addition, concerns about the sharp increase in the COVID-19 outbreak in China and the potential economic headwinds that may result from the implementation of the new lockdown measures have dampened market optimism. Given high inflation and the prospect of continued interest rate hikes by the global central banks, the risk of a global economic downturn has intensified and commodity currency, the AUD, has also continued to be under pressure.

      Technical Analysis

      AUDUSD: Might Re-test 0.6540 as the Retracement Continues_1In the 1D timeframe, the bottom of AUDUSD shows a double dip with a bullish trend, but it needs to be fully adjusted in the short term before it can rise further.
      AUDUSD: Might Re-test 0.6540 as the Retracement Continues_2In the 4H timeframe, the AUDUSD is making a technical adjustment. Next, it will step back to confirm the support of 0.6540 near the neckline. It is restricted by the resistance of 0.6675 in the short term, so there is room for further adjustment.
      It is recommended to go short at the highs, namely, try to go short with small positions when the price rebounds to near 0.6675 while setting the target near the support of 0.6540 below and stop loss above 0.6730.

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Short
      Entry price: 0.6650
      Target price: 0.6550
      Stop loss: 0.6750
      Support: 0.6600/0.6540
      Resistance: 0.6800/0.6675
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

      RMB Has Not Appreciated, and Keep Buying the Dip

      King Ten
      Forex
      Summary:

      The domestic pandemic has deteriorated in stages, and pessimism about economic fundamentals has re-emerged. Coupled with the hawkish statements of Fed officials, the depreciation trend of the RMB in the short term can hardly change.

      BUY USDCNH
      Close Time
      CLOSED

      7.14000

      Entry Price

      7.32000

      TP

      7.01000

      SL

      7.15653 -0.00065 0.00%

      1300.0

      Pips

      Loss

      7.01000

      SL

      7.00947

      Exit Price

      7.14000

      Entry Price

      7.32000

      TP

      Fundamentals

      Published data from China's National Bureau of Statistics: China's value-added industrial output expanded by 5% year-on-year in October, in line with expectations, and the previous is up 6.3%. Retail sales of consumer goods fell 0.5% year-on-year in October, beyond the expected 1.7% and up 2.5% in September. From January to October, fixed asset investment rose 5.8% from a year ago, slightly below the expected and the previous value of 5.9%. Meanwhile, the national real estate development investment fell by 8.8% year-on-year from January to October, of which the residential investment fell by 8.3%.
      U.S. retail sales rose 1.3% month-on-month in October, the highest level since February, beating market expectations of 1% versus 0% in September. And the Core retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, rose 0.9% month-on-month, the highest since May, and above market expectations of 0.2% versus 0.3% in September.
      Overall, China's GDP growth rate for the whole year maybe around 3.3%. Although real estate policies are frequently released at present, the long-tail effect of the sequelae of COVID-19 continues, and it will take a while for the confidence to recover.
      However, the pandemic now has experienced a phase of deterioration, which is another blow to the economy, and the Politburo meeting in the early next year may trigger the onset of the fundamental improvement. In addition, hawkish statements from Fed officials further confirmed that the pace of rate hikes can hardly slow down until the beginning of next year. In terms of RMB, there is still pressure to depreciate in the short term, but the process will be more tortuous, and there will be no unilateral appreciation and depreciation as fierce as last time. Therefore, oscillations in prices will be the norm we see next.

      Technical Analysis

      Trading at the monthly chart, November shows a Long Black Body, but the potential for depreciation has not yet been exhausted. And the depreciation still needs to build a top smoothly to resolve, which will take at least a quarter.
      USDCNH: RMB Has Not Appreciated, and Keep Buying the Dip_1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading Direction: Long
      Entry Price: 7.1400
      Target Price: 7.3200
      Stop Loss: 7.0100
      Support: 7.1010/7.0130
      Resistance: 7.2620/7.3280
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

      BTCUSDT: Plight Difficult to Reverse in Short Term, Least Resistance to Going Short at Highs

      Winkelmann
      Cryptocurrency
      Summary:

      The collapse of the FTX has dragged Bitcoin into a massive drop after breaking the level. Bitcoin's technicals have been severely damaged and remain weakly oscillating in the short term, and further declines cannot be ruled out.

      SELL BTC-USDT
      Close Time
      CLOSED

      16700.0

      Entry Price

      13500.0

      TP

      18800.0

      SL

      37400.3 +651.4 +1.77%

      458.1

      Pips

      Profit

      13500.0

      TP

      16241.9

      Exit Price

      16700.0

      Entry Price

      18800.0

      SL

      Fundamentals

      Market expectations for the Fed to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes have been rising recently. The dollar has fallen significantly from its highs and market risk appetite has risen. However, the crypto market seems to be unmoved. In particular, the recent untimely internal collapse of FTX, one of the largest crypto exchanges, has dragged down the entire crypto market and caused significant losses to many investors.
      The collapse of FTX has also reignited doubts about the value of cryptocurrencies. The lack of regulation is also abhorrent, and purely speculative products that lack security are doomed to a bad end. Market sentiment seems to be at its lowest point this year as Bitcoin continues to fall. The trading volume has been lukewarm in recent months, highlighting the lack of investor confidence and it will be difficult to reverse this negative situation in the short term.

      Technical Analysis

      BTCUSDT: Plight Difficult to Reverse in Short Term, Least Resistance to Going Short at Highs_1
      In the monthly chart, BTCUSDT goes down again after breaking the level following nearly 5 months of sideways oscillation above 18,700. A new downward room is opened, and the currency pair is expected to continue its downside to around 13,000 in the coming sessions.
      BTCUSDT: Plight Difficult to Reverse in Short Term, Least Resistance to Going Short at Highs_2
      Looking at the daily chart, the BTCUSDT shows a strong rally after dropping to around 15500 in the short term, but there is still a long way to go to reverse the FTX-induced collapse; only if the price stands at 18,700 and flips the position from pressure to support will there be any hope of that happening. At the moment, the bitcoin consolidation range in the short term is very difficult to break through, and the possibility of continuing downward movement is higher.
      It is recommended to mainly go short at highs. Shorting can be tried after the price rallies to near 17000, with the target set at the lower support level near 13000 and the stop loss set above 18700.

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Short
      Entry price: 16700
      Target price: 13500
      Stop loss: 18800
      Support: 15500/13000
      Resistance: 18700/17000
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

      Demand Suppressed, Likely to Return to the Downtrend in the Short Term

      King Ten
      Commodity
      Summary:

      Fed officials release hawkish remarks. Meanwhile, China's domestic pandemic has worsened, and demand concerns have suppressed copper prices. Since the optimistic expectations ignited in early November have retreated, it is feasible to go short with the trend in the short term.

      SELL COPPER
      EXP
      EXPIRED

      8114.000

      Entry Price

      7650.000

      TP

      8302.000

      SL

      8460.645 +80.150 +0.95%

      --

      Pips

      EXPIRED

      7650.000

      TP

      8071.155

      Exit Price

      8114.000

      Entry Price

      8302.000

      SL

      Fundamentals

      Macro side: China's economic data in October was bleak, and the pandemic in some local areas was resurgent. While US retail sales data for October exceeded expectations, and some Fed officials released hawkish remarks.
      Demand: According to statistics, nearly 50 cities in China have issued more than 100 purchase restriction optimization policies this year, of which 16 provincial capitals have relaxed purchase restrictions. Besides, the purchase restriction policies in second-tier cities such as Qingdao, Dalian, Tianjin, and Suzhou have also been loosened.
      Supply: BHP has reached an agreement with union workers of the Escondida mine in Chile, the world's largest copper mine, to avoid strikes planned for November 21st and 23rd.
      Overall: On the macro level, the Chinese repeated pandemic and the hawkish remarks released by some Fed officials cooled the optimism, which had been hard to accumulate at the beginning of the month. From the perspective of supply and demand, China's domestic supply and demand are gradually loosening, inventories are beginning to accumulate gradually, and the support of low inventories is weakening. In the short and medium term, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China will remain high, and demand concerns have suppressed copper prices. In the long run, pessimism in overseas macro expectations will limit the rebound.

      Technical Analysis

      Trading at the 1-hour chart, copper prices stood firm at 7865 the day before yesterday after constant pullbacks, and started a rebound with a possible double-bottom pattern. However, this trend stopped abruptly yesterday, and the contour of the shoulders is more obvious. It is crucial that the price can break through 8114 successfully. If it fails to break effectively, then the winning rate of bears will be greatly increased. At the same time, the daily chart is also testing whether the MA20 can play a supporting role. If it collapses, then the price will go down to the center of the early stage around 7650.
      COPPER: Demand Suppressed, Likely to Return to the Downtrend in the Short Term_1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading Direction: Short
      Entry Price: 8114
      Target Price: 7650
      Stop Loss: 8302
      Support: 7865/7621
      Resistance: 8114/8321
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

      Meeting Minutes May Provide Upside Momentum for the Dollar Again

      Jason
      Summary:

      With the minutes of the Fed's November meeting to be released during the day, the market is expecting to hear any talk of a slowdown in rate hikes. However, since the November policy meeting and recent trading days, Fed officials have repeatedly suppressed market expectations, and even if they talk about slowing down interest rate hikes, the wording will probably be quite strict and will not give the market any room for speculation. In other words, the minutes of this meeting may disappoint the market, or even suppress market expectations again.

      BUY USDX
      Close Time
      CLOSED

      106.656

      Entry Price

      108.000

      TP

      105.630

      SL

      103.003 -0.249 -0.24%

      102.6

      Pips

      Loss

      105.630

      SL

      105.630

      Exit Price

      106.656

      Entry Price

      108.000

      TP

      Fundamentals

      The dollar fell slightly by 0.58% on Tuesday, giving back most of its gains from the previous session. As many traders halted trading ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, trading volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq stock market was only 18.9 billion shares on Monday and Tuesday, the lowest volume for any two trading days since January 3. As a result, the dollar saw a technical retracement.
      Meanwhile, the US 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields have inverted to the greatest extent in 40 years, and the inverted curve has long been seen as a sign of an economic recession. The duration and the extent of this inversion are so profound that the market is deeply concerned. The market also bet on the Fed to cut interest rates earlier than expected. That's right, the market jumped the gun again, which also drove the dollar lower.
      In addition, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that given the high level of inflation, restoring price stability is currently the Fed's primary concern. While Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George said it may be necessary to raise interest rates to a higher level and keep them at that level for a long time to curb consumer demand and cool inflation.
      Mester's attitude is very clear in previous speeches, that is, to support a slowdown in interest rate increases while continuing to keep raising rates. George stated in previous speeches that "I am more cautious than most about the pace of interest rate hikes. The Fed should be wary that rate hikes can not be too hasty". In such a context, this speech is well understood.
      Overall, the two officials' speeches are basically in line with the Fed's current "broad approach", namely being "slower, higher, and longer".
      With the minutes of the Fed's November meeting to be released during the day, the market is expecting to hear any talk of a slowdown in rate hikes. However, since the November policy meeting and recent trading days, Fed officials have repeatedly suppressed market expectations, and even if they talk about slowing down interest rate hikes, the wording will probably be quite strict and will not give the market any room for speculation. In other words, the minutes of this meeting may disappoint the market, or even suppress market expectations again.
      Technical Analysis
      In the 4H chart, the dollar falls from the highs, back again to the 107.291 - 106.034 oscillation range, temporarily supported by 106.824, which is also the neckline of the double bottom in the historical trend. The key support below is 105.465, where the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement is located, and the price may go straight to 103.5 if it falls below this line. The resistance above is dense, containing both the top of the oscillation range, the downtrend line, and the Fibonacci Retracement. The dollar needs strong upside momentum to complete a consecutive breakout and the meeting minutes will be an opportunity to do so. As for the indicators, the DMI and Ichimoku Cloud both show that the short-term downtrend in the dollar is nearing its end and the price will start to rise after a small decline.
      USDX: Meeting Minutes May Provide Upside Momentum for the Dollar Again_1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Long
      Entry price: 106.656
      Target price: 108.00
      Stop loss: 105.63
      Support: 106.824/106.656/106.034/105.465
      Resistance: 107.291/107.735/108.453
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

      Stagnating at Highs, Further Correction Is Possible

      Winkelmann
      Forex
      Summary:

      Given the slack that persists in the economy, bullish positions in the pound are limited. And the dollar still has the potential to go strong in the short term, putting further pressure on the pound.

      SELL GBPUSD
      Close Time
      CLOSED

      1.18895

      Entry Price

      1.16500

      TP

      1.20400

      SL

      1.26547 +0.00294 +0.23%

      150.5

      Pips

      Loss

      1.16500

      TP

      1.20404

      Exit Price

      1.18895

      Entry Price

      1.20400

      SL

      Fundamentals

      Benefiting from the improvement in US inflation data, the Fed may slow the pace of interest rate hikes, and the pound has received a clear boost recently. However, the UK government announced more austerity measures last week. Britain plans to save £55bn a year to recover public finances, with almost half of the austerity measures coming from tax increases. This policy has undoubtedly made matters worse for the British economy, which is already in recession. At present, the UK is the only G7 country whose economy is still lower than that before the pandemic, and sluggish economic fundamentals can hardly support the upward trend of the pound.
      While the UK CPI surged 11.1% year-on-year in October, reaching its highest level in 41 years. "Bursting" inflation weighed on the Bank of England enormously. Looking ahead, further rate hikes will be required, and the peak interest rate will lift. This will exacerbate the severity of the recession in the UK, with both easing and tightening policies appearing to be invalid.
      In addition, the monetary policy of the Bank of England is significantly less hawkish than that of the Fed, which is enough to judge the future direction of the pound sterling. In the absence of major data in the UK, the trend of the US dollar still determines the direction of GBPUSD in the short term. Traders remain bullish on the dollar after the hawkish comments from Fed officials, while Eurozone PMI data may not perform well. Therefore, the market is biased toward the bullish dollar, and the pound has an attempt for a correction.

      Technical AnalysisGBPUSD: Stagnating at Highs, Further Correction Is Possible_1

      Trading at the daily chart, GBPUSD extended its choppy rally, but was halted after rushing higher to 1.20. And RSI is less effective at a high level, and the price may be further adjusted in the short term.
      GBPUSD: Stagnating at Highs, Further Correction Is Possible_2
      Looking at the 4-hour chart, GBPUSD maintained consolidating at highs, but the highs declined. The price is slightly biased to the downside. A further pullback to around 1.1640 could not be excluded.
      It is recommended to mainly go short at highs, and try to make a short sale with small positions when the price is around 1.1900. The target is around the support below at 1.1640 and the stop loss is beyond 1.2000.

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading Direction: Short
      Entry Price: 1.1900
      Target Price: 1.1650
      Stop Loss: 1.2040
      Support: 1.1750/1.1640
      Resistance: 1.1900/1.2000
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

      Jason

      Analyst

      I have an in-depth study of fundamentals, especiaslly for the US dollar market. I'm good at short and medium term trading by virtue of my profound financial theoretical knowledge and extensive practical experience.

      Ranking

      --

      Articles

      332

      Win Rate

      0.00%

      P/L Ratio

      1.23

      Focus on

      USDX, EURUSD, GBPUSD

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