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      XAUUSD: Gold Holds Below 1730, Will Start a New Downtrend

      Inflation and Recession
      Summary:

      The minutes of the Fed's November meeting will be released during the day. From the previous attitude of the Fed officials suppressing market expectations, the minutes may not be as dovish as the market expected.

      Sell XAUUSD
      End Time
      CLOSED

      1746.52

      ENTRY PRICE

      1730.00

      TGT PRICE

      1756.79

      SL PRICE

      1796.89 +8.01 +0.44%

      896

      Points

      Loss

      1730.00

      TGT PRICE

      1755.48

      CLOSING

      1746.52

      ENTRY PRICE

      1756.79

      SL PRICE

      Fundamentals

      Gold oscillated yesterday and closed slightly up 0.1%. This was mainly because the US 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds have inverted to the greatest extent in 40 years, and the inverted curve has long been seen as a sign of an economic recession. The duration and the extent of this inversion are so profound that the market is deeply concerned. The market is also betting that the recession will force the Fed to cut interest rates earlier than expected, and the dollar will fail to continue the trend of the previous few trading days and close on the decline.
      Gold's sharp rally since Nov. 4 has benefited from two factors, one being influenced by short covering trades and the other by the market's overheated expectations of a slowdown of interest rate hikes by the Fed. But both factors are now absent. The reason for the former is that the latest CFTC data from the last reporting week showed the market shifting to the net speculative long position; while the latter is that overheated market expectations were dampened by Fed officials' speeches for several successive trading days. This means that this deep retracement in gold is likely to continue.
      The minutes of the Fed's November meeting will be released during the day. From the previous attitude of the Fed officials suppressing market expectations, the minutes may not be as dovish as the market expected. Although the Fed is still heading toward a hawkish slowdown, it is not a "hawkish top". The Fed is likely to raise its estimate of the terminal rate in December at the earliest, partly because high inflation is likely to persist. And this is also in line with the Fed's "slower, higher, longer" policy path. However, this is clearly in conflict with the market's expectations of an accelerating recession in the US economy forcing the Fed to immediately slow down rate hikes, suspend rate hikes or even cut rates on aggressive expectations. In other words, the dollar may therefore rise and put gold under pressure.

      Technical Analysis

      In the 4H chart, the gold oscillates in a narrow range of 1749.52 - 1732.5 in the short term. In the vicinity of 1730, there are both the W bottom neckline and the top of the historical trend 1617.123 - 1730 oscillation range, and the 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement, which is the key support, a break below this line means that gold will open a new round of downtrend. The key resistance above is the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement (1774.80). As for the indicators, Stoch and Ichimoku both show that gold will rise in the short term; +DI in DMI shows signs of going up through -DI, indicating that there is an accumulation of downside risk in gold in the short term. Overall, it is recommended to continue shorting after the gold rises.
      XAUUSD: Gold Holds Below 1730, Will Start a New Downtrend_1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Short
      Entry price: 1746.52
      Target price: 1730.0
      Stop loss: 1756.79
      Support: 1737.19/1730.0/1723.85
      Resistance: 1749.52/1768.74/1784.33
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Jason

      Analyst

      I have an in-depth study of fundamentals, especiaslly for the US dollar market. I'm good at short and medium term trading by virtue of my profound financial theoretical knowledge and extensive practical experience.

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